저자: AnthonyPompiano · 외국인
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캐시 우드가 스테이블코인이 비트코인의 교환매체 역할을 일부 잠식한다며 2030년 150만달러 강세 전망에서 약 30만달러 할인을 언급. 팸피아노는 비트코인은 디지털 금(가치저장)으로 굳어지고 스테이블코인은 결제 레일 역할을 한다고 주장. 변동성 축소는 기관 자금 유입 때문이며 장기적으로 비트코인 수요에 긍정적이라는 입장. 비트코인은 10만달러 수준에서 '아이피오 모먼트'를 거치는 중이며 제로화 가능성은 낮다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Kathy Wood just changed her Bitcoin prediction and honestly this one caught people off guard. But wait until you hear what Anthony Pompiano says in response. This part is important. Let's watch this. Stable coins are usurping part of the role that we thought uh Bitcoin would play. So our bullish forecast out there is 1.5 million uh by 2030.
uh given what's happening to stable coins uh which are serving emerging markets in a way that we thought Bitcoin would um uh I I think we could take maybe $300,000 off of that bullish case just just for stable coins. So uh watch that space. stable coins are um are scaling here I think much faster than anyone would have expected
with longtime bull uh Bitcoin bull Kathy Wood uh on Squawkbox yesterday changing her tune a bit it says here it's been a volatile week for crypto joining us now Anthony Pompiano founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management I I thought the whole exercise was just kind of silly to have a it's at 100,000 so you got a price target of 1.5 million okay so that's 15 times times.
You're starting at 15 times as if you can make a forecast like that with any degree of of certainty or accuracy and then your your resolution on the whole idea is so fine with because of what you're calculating. You can cut 300,000 off and then it's going only going up 12 times. I the whole thing just seems silly.
I don't know why we we really ran it there. But uh we are at 100,000. Do you think it goes below significantly or this is another we've seen this movie before? Yeah, look, I think that there's a um uh a reckoning that's happening across both crypto and Wall Street, which is the Wall Street folks are realizing that Bitcoin is real and it's going to be here uh to stay.
At the same time, the crypto people are realizing that Wall Street plays a very different game. Wall Street actually does not want an asset that goes up, you know, 100x and then drops 80% every 3 to four years. They want something that is much more predictable, much more stable. And so, why' they get so involved with it?
Because that's Well, because Bitcoin is not as risky today as it used to be, right? If you were buying Bitcoin in 2012, 125, was it 125 about a month ago? Of course, but if you think about uh the risk you take, you should get paid for. And so, right now, Bitcoin is much less risky today than it was a decade ago.
And so, people are going to get a lower return. Now, what I think is really interesting is uh also that lower volatility in Bitcoin is allowing these large pools of capital to come in and start playing. And so, in a weird way, the volatility coming down is opening up the total addressable market of Bitcoin.
And what we have seen is less volatility to the upside, but that likely also means less volatility to the downside. Usually in bull markets, you see, you know, four, five, six different 30 plus percent draw downs. We haven't seen that during this bull market. And so you're just getting dampening of volatility over time, which frankly is boring to a lot of the early investors and I think that's why you see a lot of those guys starting to sell.
If you don't take her price targets into account, the point she was making uh I thought was interesting and that is that maybe the the notion that that Bitcoin becomes more than than just a store of value in digital gold. The idea that it eventually becomes something for crossber transactions and in instantaneous payment that could be st she's basically saying stable coin could take a lot of that market share.
I I would go even further. I think it's listen to this. Kathy Wood, one of the biggest Bitcoin bulls on the planet, is now saying that stable coins are taking part of the role they originally expected Bitcoin to play. And because of that, she says their bullish case of $1.5 million, Bitcoin by 2030 might get reduced by around $300,000.
Now, let's talk about that in a real way because this is actually a big shift. For years, the narrative was that Bitcoin would be used not just as a store of value, but also as a global payment system, especially for people in places with weak currencies. But what actually happened? People aren't really using Bitcoin for everyday transactions.
If you think your Bitcoin is going to go from $100,000 to $300,000 to $1 million, you're not spending it on groceries. What are people spending? Stable coins, dollars on blockchain rails, USDT, USDC, they exploded. Look at Argentina, Turkey, Nigeria, Ghana. Stable coins became survival tools. People are using them to escape currency collapse and move money faster than banks allow.
And guess what? This actually helps the US dollar's influence globally. So Cathy isn't saying Bitcoin is weak. She's saying Bitcoin has basically settled into the role of digital gold. It's the thing you hold, not the thing you spend. And honestly, she's right. And then you've got people on TV asking, "Why have a price target at all?
Isn't predicting $1.5 million silly?" They still treat Bitcoin like a stock where you set neat little valuations. Bitcoin is not a company. Bitcoin is a monetary network being repriced in real time. Trying to analyze it with old metrics is like trying to describe Wi-Fi with a ruler. It doesn't work.
Now, here's the part that really matters. Bitcoin's volatility is decreasing. Early Bitcoin could swing 80% in either direction like nothing. Now, we're seeing smaller corrections, slower moves, and more stability. That's not a sign of weakness. That's a sign of maturity. Why is volatility going down?
Because large capital is entering pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, asset managers, banks. Black Rockck literally runs the world's largest Bitcoin fund right now. When Wall Street enters, everything gets bigger, slower, and more stable. And that opens the door for trillions of dollars that couldn't touch Bitcoin before.
Already taking that, right? I think that's kind of her point. So, Bitcoin is never going to be anything other than than digital gold. For for years, I think I've been coming on here and saying, "Hey, we know for sure that people want to use it as a store of value. Maybe one day it'll become a medium of exchange." You know, the question of always like, are you going to buy your coffee with it?
The hard part about using Bitcoin for transactions in that manner is if you think Bitcoin is going to appreciate, you don't want to spend an asset that is likely to appreciate in the future. The guys that bought the pizza that now correct. And so instead, what do you do? You spend something that you think is going to depreciate over time, which is the US dollar.
And so the rise of stable coins, I think, is really just taking the exact same asset. It's the US dollar with the same monetary policy. You're putting it on new rails. And what we're finding is that the demand for dollars was way higher than we ever thought before. And I think that's a good thing for the United States and uh for the US dollar.
A lot of times gold though is is non-correlated with risk assets. In fact, sometimes it's you know sometimes it's it's a place where you can park during times of turbulence in the stock market. You might like gold or or or treasuries or something like that. Bitcoin is still like trading like a uh a NASDAQ stock uh you know on steroids at times.
When does that change? Well, here's what's interesting is at times it trades you know right in line with NASDAQ. Other times it's not. I mean earlier a couple weeks ago, NASDAQ was running and Bitcoin was going sideways, right? And so I think that what people are really trying to figure out is is it correlated?
Is it non-correlated? Is it inversely correlated? And part of it is that Bitcoin is still in this transition period. You know, my friend Jordi Visser has got this great way of framing it. He says, "Bitcoin is having its IPO moment." And the whole idea is that you have the early holders of Bitcoin who are dispersing that Bitcoin into the market.
And there has been billions and billions of billions of dollars of sales of Bitcoin coming from those early holders. Yet the Bitcoin price is still at $100,000. And so there is this persistent bid coming from the traditional financial system saying, "We want to buy the Bitcoin and we're happy to take it out of the hands of those early holders."
Do you think that the um possibility of Bitcoin becoming basically worthless has been taken off the table at this point? And if not, what would it mean to the the financial system in this country to the the treasury uh market to I mean you've got institutional buyers, you've got governments, you've got sovereigns, you've got people buying.
If it went to zero, that would be a Yeah, that'd be a real issue, would it not? Look, there's always some, you know, uh uh person who's going to point out the kind of 0.001% 0 oh 1% chance of uh software computing, you know, quantum computer, whatever, right? But I think for most people, they see Bitcoin as uh not going away.
It's here to stay. And I think that's why you see these large pools of capital. People that think it's going to zero never short it. Listen, I would short it if I thought it was going to zero. The market is the referee. If people have, for some reason, think it's going to zero. That's that's a luxury belief.
That's what I call because nothing can happen. You can believe it. Henry Blahett still thinks it's going to zero. It's either going to a million or to zero. It's a luxury belief. you can have it and no one's ever going to call you out on it, but you're never going to short it because you don't you don't ever put any money down.
I I do think that there is a uh a theme that is happening right now that people have not yet wrapped their head around, which is this whole idea of uh crypto is going to be dead in a decade, right? People are not going to be talking about crypto. We're just going to talk about finance. Everything is now merging together.
You have the crypto world and you've got the traditional finance world. Crypto will be just so intertwined with the financial word world that we won't even use the term. We we used to think about the internet like internet finance and then there was the finance industry. Now it's just finance. Same thing is going to happen with crypto, right?
You know, Black Rockck as an example. Black Rockck could be described as a crypto company. Their most profitable product is their Bitcoin product. They're talking about tokenization all the time. Like they are trying to adopt these new technologies. All of the big asset managers, they're trying to figure out how do we play here?
Do we actually have funds that invest in the space? Do we tokenize our funds? What do we do? And so over the next decade or so, crypto as a concept is going to be dead. and you're just going to hear people talk about finance. Um, and I think that's a good thing. That's the uh maturation of the industry.
How long did the people point out that I guess how long was were tulip bulbs a thing? They were for for years and years and years. Not I don't think 20 years though, was it? Look, I think that what people uh forget sometimes is how quickly everything is accelerating now. You know, one of the things that um we've done is we've launched a a software product called Sylvia that allows somebody to come in and they can attach their bank account, their brokerage account, their crypto account.
They can upload their real estate, their private investments, their credit cards, all this stuff. And the AI goes to work and starts to immediately begin uh helping them get their financial life in better order, right? It's kind of uh help you grow your investment portfolio. And the reason why that's important is because now all of a sudden software can replace financial adviserss or uh your stock brokers.
And so we think that the same way that AI is attacking things in personal finance with a product like Sylvia, we also think that the same thing is happening, Bitcoin is attacking store of value, we think stable coins are attacking uh medium of exchange. We think tokenization is going to attack the stock market.
It is the digitization and the framework I've been talking about since 2018 2017 is we had an analog financial system. We then upgraded it to an electronic QIP system. So you used to have a physical stock certificate, a physical deed in your home, etc. It all became electronic. Now we are going from the electronic cusive to this digital world.
It's the same assets. It's the same market structure. It is just now going to be in a different form factor and that allows all the software to get and use a lot more energy. It does need a lot more energy. All right, Anthony. Thank you. Now, here's the key point people miss. Bitcoin equals store of value.
Stable coins equals medium of exchange. Tokenization equals new rails for markets and assets. These aren't competitors. They are parts of the same new system. The old financial system was physical, electronic, now digital. What's happening right now is not a crypto industry. It's the digitization of the entire financial system.
And in 10 years, nobody will even say crypto. They'll just say finance because it will all be built on blockchain rails, whether people realize it or not. So, here's the real takeaway. This isn't about whether Bitcoin replaces the dollar. It's not even about price predictions anymore. It's about the fact that Bitcoin is now a permanent global asset and stable coins are the transport layer for the digital economy.
The people who see this now are the ones early to the next financial era. If you're watching this, you're not late. You're actually ahead of the majority. Let me know if you want me to break down why stable coin adoption actually increases long-term Bitcoin demand.
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