저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2020년 10월 주택시장 분석 영상. 주택구매력지수 악화와 반등 후 가격 정체를 설명하며 임대료 연체와 2021년 초 퇴거 물량 증가로 주택가격이 15~20% 단기 급락(V자)할 수 있다고 주장. 다만 의회의 임대료 지원 시 V자 급락은 발생하지 않을 수 있고, 금리가 2024~2025년까지 낮게 유지될 것으로 봄. 부동산 투자 강의 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here pending home sales just turned down 2.2 percent and the wall street journal just ran a thorough report on the looming eviction crisis called struggling rental market could usher in next american housing crisis this comes as coveted cases are rising the stock market is selling off and all measures of fear and the economy and market are up substantially at the same time we face another potential threat of lockdowns shutdowns to limit the spread of this pandemic all while congress goes on vacation provides no support so how do we puzzle the pieces of this disaster together and understand when and if this next housing crisis is coming and how bad it's going to be well in this video i'm going to go through all of the variables and i'm going to give you some projections in terms of exactly how bad i think it's going to be first let's talk about something known as the housing affordability index we'll keep this simple we'll just get to the bottom lines here when prices go up and then this is different from stocks so keep this in mind when real estate prices go up that translates to people actually having to pay more money on a monthly basis to buy that real estate so unlike tesla stock real estate can't really go to the moon it has to be affordable and you can't buy fractional real estate which means prices are literally bound by people's ability to pay very very different from stocks where there seems to be no upper threshold as to hi how high and crazy stocks can go unfortunately housing affordability has started to crater and here's why remember the rule of 10x the rule of 10x says that for every 1 in interest rates that interest rates go down prices go up 10 well that's kind of what happened interest rates fell about a percent and prices went up about 10 percent year over year we're up 10 in some cases even 14 because rates have even fallen more than one percent and so you see this immediate kind of yin and yang with prices and interest rates this makes sense again because well real estate is tied to people's ability to afford the property they're in so this led to a pretty nice dang freaking boom in real estate if you were buying or you already owned real estate prior to probably august and july of this year if you went shopping for real estate in may and june you probably got a much better deal than you could have gotten today and that's just the nature of the market adjusting to rates having fallen but now that prices are higher any benefit of lower rates is really gone for new buyers new buyers are like yeah i get lower interest rates ah but crap look at them prices they're way higher and that's a problem and so that's where we see affordability go down and we're starting to see according to the national association of realtors housing affordability plummet it's at the lowest level that it's been at in the last three years and that creates some problems and this is them comparing median incomes to median home prices so this is where generally when affordability goes down you don't really have this exact correlation where as affordability goes down prices guaranteed come down instead what happens is prices begin to stabilize the growth of prices gets limited and to see this let's go ahead and look at redfin's data center and we'll see exactly what i'm talking about so this here is redfin's data center and what we want to look at here is we've got a chart of median home sales prices median home sales prices in all metros all counties and this is sort of averaged out on a four week duration and what we really want to watch is the 2020 data which is going to be the red line here and so what we could see is we've really seen prices here you go here's june so i'll kind of draw june right here for us and what you can see is this very clear increase in prices since june it really makes it clear that the best time to buy a property was between may and june of this year if you bought after that again you paid more than those prices but we had a little bit of a sinkhole there between may and june and so what's happened since then because rates have stabilized low is we got a lot of buyers coming into the market you get real estate prices essentially going parabolic here for a moment and then you get this incredible growth but then you start having exactly what we would expect to happen a flattening see this flattening that we're having here is really a cause of housing affordability there's a limit right you get this big massive boost because whoa look how cheap rates are oh my gosh everything became more affordable prices and then oh well okay now we got these new two percent or two and a half percent loans on 30-year fixed-rate loans but crap we're hitting the ceiling we can't get above the ceiling anymore and that's one of the downsides of real estate you can't expect it to go to the moon like stocks can now that does not make real estate a a terrible investment real estate's a great investment it just makes it a different investment it's important to know that so really what you get is you get price stabilization uh but price stabilization is just one factor here price stabilization does not necessarily mean prices are going to fall right it just means okay we're flattening out we're not necessarily going to see a crash there so instead what we're going to focus on are rents and there are two parts to rents to give us an idea as to what's happening in the real estate market in the housing markets there's current rent and there's background let's go ahead and start by looking at current rent so current rent means what percentage of tenants actually paid their rent in october are we seeing inflection points where we're starting to see declines in the amount of tenants paying rent and what we can do is we can go to the national multi-family housing council and pull up exactly that data and we'll find that this data just came out a few days ago here on the 27th and what we want to look at here is 2020 and take a look at this 94.6 percent of tenants have paid their rent in october this is actually the best reading that we have had since well they started doing the math here in may of 2020.
it's not as good as october of 2019 but it is the best reading we have had during the entire pandemic here it's actually a very very good sign it's very good to see that a higher percentage of tenants have paid rent in the month of october very very good because we want to limit the growing amount of back rent that we have from the pandemic this brings up back rent so back rent estimates of back rent are complicated and they vary widely for example the philadelphia federal reserve bank says that we're around seven billion dollars in back rent and then you you have other studies put together by universities that say no no no we're closer to 21 billion dollars in back rent in other words nobody exactly knows how far behind we are in back rent but the reality is we are behind and back rent and back rent becomes an issue because back rent can lead to a sudden wave of tenants being evicted when evictions become possible in january now some evictions are currently happening either sneaking through loopholes or being done anyway but most evictions are supposed to be paused until january 1st by all estimates 10 to 15 million households could get evicted come january which that would affect around 40 million people and we've previously estimated that even if a third of these properties that end up getting evicted actually finish the eviction that gets complicated let me think about it if you have 10 million houses just to roll with the math here you got 10 million houses a third get an eviction filed against them so 3.3 million get an eviction filed against them they're not all going to finish the eviction process some of them are going to come current they'll borrow money they'll figure it out so they're not all going to get evicted right and then of that 3.3 million let's say one-third decide the landlords decide that's it i'm done with real estate i'm going to sell will that be around what 1.1 million maybe as high as 1.5 million if we started with the 15 million uh you know and did a third and a third so let's just go with around 1.5 million properties worst case scenario that come up on the market in the event we have 33 percent of evictions get completed and 10 to 15 million evictions get filed 33 of those get completed and then 33 of those decide to sell and hit the market because the landlords are like that's it i'm done i'm done with tenants and toilets i'm retiring it's one of the beautiful things about owning real estate you might not need your might need to not need hich you can also do through uh halloween night to use those links down below uh weeble and life insurance but you could retire from your real estate and some people might say that's it i ain't doing tenants and toilets anymore makes sense but anyway here's how we put the pieces of the puzzle together usually we only sell as a country the united states we only sell around seven million properties per year well if we take seven million and bump that up by another 1.5 million that's almost like a nearly 20 percent increase in the amount of properties that would be selling in a year except there's an additional problem a lot of these evictions would happen in the first half of the year so we're really throwing a 20 increase into the first half of the year next year and this is where we get talks of a really oversaturated housing market potentially coming up at the beginning of 2021.
my estimation would be anywhere between the second week of january and probably the last week in march that's where we're gonna see possibly some saturation from evictions of properties coming on the market like crazy now that's actually scary because that is a lot of inventory and that will absolutely have an effect of causing prices to decline now fortunately home buying appetite is huge and so any declines in prices will at some point be met with a lot of buyers willing to buy and see this is where the eviction crisis could cause real problems for 2021.
in my opinion though 2021 will look very volatile and the easiest way to see this is just by taking out a whiteboard a broken one at that and then a poop colored marker and saying well what's it gonna look like when pooh hits the fan well when pooh hits the fan we get into 2021 it's not even as good of a marker see it's poop colored and it's not even good what kind of crap is that i guess it's not really crap at all this is not working anyway 2021 if we go into 2021 you know prices have have sort of leveled here going into 2021 we get an increase in inventory suddenly in the first three months of 2021 of 20 on a yearly basis that's really compressing that and that would almost feel like a 40 increase in inventory you could see a 40 increase in inventory now there are a lot of buyers who are not able to buy right now so you're going to have buyers coming in and absorbing this quickly but my expectation is we could easily see prices drop suddenly and for a short window of time somewhere between 15 to 20 percent would not shock me at all and this is worst case scenario okay worst case scenario i believe we could see home prices fall 15 to 20 in that first quarter of next year now we're going to hit this threshold where all of a sudden people go oh these are deals you know prices haven't fallen enough to cause a foreclosure crisis you really need prices to fall like 30 to start triggering a foreclosure crisis especially since a lot of people have so much equity in their homes right now because home prices ran up now it is true that people could refinance and go buy a boat and all of a sudden they don't have as much homeowner equity anymore but most of the people getting loans right now are highly qualified it's it's tough to get a loan right now so if we get a bunch of highly qualified basically white-collar workers coming in and swooping in and buying these deals that possibly you know let's call it a 10 to 20 percent discount if we saw this sort of flood of inventory hit the market next year 10 to 20 percent that sounds realistic we're probably going to see that be a very short-term impact and it wouldn't surprise me if come the summer of next year we start seeing those prices tick up again so we could actually see this v in the real estate market as basically evicted properties come on the market landlords dump those properties they come into the market at a concentrated period of time we see home prices fall 10 to 20 percent for a short period of time so get your cash ready so to speak then we see prices lift up probably to to where they were or i would say within five to ten percent of where they were so there could be this sort of lingering negative five percent that we see five to ten percent of where they are and then i would expect us to sort of continue on this more range-bound trajectory that is i think we'll see much lower real estate appreciation throughout the rest of the decade unless interest rates trended even lower because remember the rule of 10x interest rates trend lower then prices go up right but right now we're just really bound by that affordability curve we saw at the redfin data center so either way we slice it and and i want to be very clear these percentages are estimations right there's no way for us to exactly predict what's going to happen but it makes sense that even if we take out all of the percentages that we could very well possibly see a v-shaped dip at the beginning of 2021 this means folks you want to get educated in buying real estate and yeah i happen to sell a real estate investing course link down below but look i'm a real estate investor too and don't take my deals go shopping somewhere else okay so let's uh let's talk a little bit more about what we actually expect this to mean because there are also some dangers because we have well two asterisks that could make this v not come or make it worse so what could make the v worse or what could make it better well there are two asterisks number one congress if congress finally gets their act together and provides rental relief that v might not happen like we could literally instead of seeing this v happen we could just literally see there we go weak we can literally just see the market kind of continuing across and bridge in other words congress doing rental relief you know 20 30 40 billion dollars worth of rental relief uh which is very likely in the event of let's say uh a democratic sweep it's very likely that we'll see this and i like to say that if republicans win as well that we will see rental relief i do believe congress will act if congress acts this v may not happen this v only works if congress does not act to bail out tenants the only other thing that could possibly create a a crash in real estate and something that would be more long-lasting and potentially more damaging would be if interest rates go up and the reality is we are going to see inflation which is which is related to interest rates remember this think about this okay if interest well if inflation goes up the federal reserve likes to increase interest rates to combat inflation and bring it back down they want inflation to be around two percent if it goes up too high they'll raise rates to bring it down but right now we have zero indicators that we're actually going to see any meaningful inflation we're going to see a spike in inflation in march and april but that will be temporary i'll make a separate video on that in fact with a lack of stimulus the reality is worries of inflation have faded even more and right now we're seeing more indicators of disinflation aka inflation falling than inflation going up so the federal reserve has also promised to maintain a quote accommodative stance until we are quote well into an economic recovery and this means the fed is unlikely to donk with interest rates and raise rates until 2024 to 2025.
so aka we have a ways to go now it's crazy how far we have to go i mean four to five years basically i mean the earliest any federal reserve banker thinks rates are going to go up is like late 2023 if anything rates are probably going to just continue trending low but the bottom line here is this for 2021 we've got a situation where if congress bails out tenants with stimulus and rental relief we probably won't see a crash at the beginning of 2020 on if congress does not bail out tenants we could see prices net down 5 to 10 over the year with a sharper crash at the beginning of the year and even if you disagree with my numbers i think we can all agree that we'll see a v uh it be you know because of a sort of a temporary dip in real estate prices because of an eviction crisis however as low rates continue to prop up demand we'll likely have a floor and therefore we'll see these prices sort of return and uh i wouldn't be surprised if we ended 2021 pretty much flat in real estate we'd really have to go far to see a foreclosure crisis you know prices would have to fall 20 to 30 percent which depending on how many people get evicted it depends but but here's the thing look at the october rent data it's improving people are catching up people don't want to get evicted and if people are catching up and people don't want to get evicted then this actually minimizes the size of rv and since rates are staying stable at least at the moment then housing crash might actually be very avoidable even if we have an eviction crisis we will see a v though so if you're thinking about getting into the real estate market or you're looking for an opportunity to shop maybe maybe early 2021 might be an opportunity unless democrats sweep everything in the election and in such a case we probably would see some kind of rental relief more likely uh and i do believe that congress is going to come into no matter you know even if the senate maintains its republican status even if republicans swept everything i imagine we're going to see renter relief uh treasury secretary mnuchin has mentioned that many times that he's a proponent of renter relief so right now they're just uh they're just casually under an extended deadline through the end of the year so those are my thoughts on a real estate crisis none of this is anxiety inducing enough for me to suggest that i want to sell i'm willing to ride out with the investments that i have any kind of v-shaped crash that we might see at the beginning of next year because i think it'd be more of an opportunity for me to just add a few properties if this happens especially in multi-family i think multi-family might be a little bit more adversely impacted by this we'll see though that's my insight for the real estate market and the potential for a 2021 real estate v-shaped crash check me out on instagram and make sure to get your life insurance and your three ]
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