저자: Kevin · 외국인
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애플·구글·아마존·페이스북·트위터·핀터레스트 실적을 리뷰. 애플은 아이패드·맥 매출 호조로 5.4% 하락을 매수 기회로 봄(포트폴리오 5-6%). 구글은 유튜브 광고매출 50억달러·클라우드 45% 성장으로 실적 호조. 아마존은 매출 37.3% 증가, 3000달러 이하 매수 선호. 페이스북은 보유 비중 1%. 트위터는 DAU 순증 100만명으로 둔화, 비중 축소 고민. 핀터레스트는 광고 매출 급증 및 여성 사용자 비중 등을 근거로 가장 긍정적, 비중 3% 확대 계획.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here wow i am absolutely blown away if you are interested in stocks this is a video for you i'm going to be making a change in this video i want to share it with you i'm very excited i'm going to go through all of the details in this video we're going to look at earnings from apple amazon google pinterest facebook and twitter all reconciled into this one video here i'm going to give you my thoughts on each of these companies and we'll also talk some potential by targets and buy strategies and now keep in mind that this video is of course sponsored by weeble so make sure to deposit your 100 and get b okay let's get started so let's start with apple apple amazing company here if you're newer with stocks you're just getting started with stocks this is such a great company it's a long run growth company it's down and after hours about 5.4 percent after earnings today part of that has to do with lower iphone sales however i i personally i wonder i'm scratching my head here like hello apple delayed the release of their iphone 12 by a month so we're not getting that initial surge in sales volume recorded in the quarter three which they just reported on instead that's going to now be pushed back to the fourth quarter of this year so personally i i don't think this this was an earnings miss here in fact of things other than the iphone segment we had a massive destruction in sales amount ipad sales jumped to 6.8 billion dollars up from 4.6 billion dollars max sales like this kind of thing right here jump to 9 billion dollars from about seven billion dollars i mean we're talking massive money that people are spending on new devices at home and computers ipads and computers big segment uh however and unfortunately the iphone segment definitely overshadowed the earnings here despite the fact that apple beat revenue the lower iphone sales during this quarter definitely hurt now apple still has 191 billion dollars in cash on hand that is down 14 billion dollars from last year but this is an insane amount of cash in my opinion if there's any safe growth stock to own it's apple this is a phenomenal company and if anything this drop in share price of 5.4 percent creates a buying opportunity at apple in my opinion i think we're going to see some decent iphone figures in the next quarter although i'm not convinced that we are going to see the super cycle of upgrades i talked about this in my reaction video to apple's announcement i don't think 5g is going to be the player that all of a sudden gets everybody to turn around and say that's it i'm going heavy on apple so uh i i personally wouldn't be surprised if we see iphone sales you know have their bump with the new iphone upgrade cycle every single year which we see we saw it last year i think we'll see it this year but i don't think it's going to smash any records or any anticipations out of the park so for me apple you know this is a buy stock for me under 105 under 110 i'll trickle in along with my regular holdings other than that so what i mean by that is rather than buying apple individually at the moment even though it's just dropped 5.4 i'm still happy to buy apple as part of a larger portfolio for me that's about five to six percent of my portfolio and i do not mind buying apple if anything apple just went on a little bit of a sale but i am worried that even though we're going to see these iphone numbers show up in the next quarter we're just not going to see that big upgrade cycle from 5g so apple definitely not huge growth in the long run in my opinion for the share price definitely a great stock to own though i think it's a crucial piece of really any portfolio to create that stability in a portfolio great company google smashed earnings folks this was huge i mean just the amount of ad revenue that google got from youtube which is obviously where you're watching this 5 billion dollars in ad revenue coming into youtube alone they've increased their employee account 16 their advertising revenue across the board has just exploded and this is really good i mean more people are shopping at home and more businesses are realizing hey if we want to get eyeballs we gotta advertise and that's exactly what's happening now a little bit concerned here because advertising can explode leading not only into the winter season but remember we're in a in an election cycle here so it's possible that some of these numbers might be pretty juicy right now and for the beginning of this next quarter here obviously in october because we're already in the next quarter advertising revenue goes through the roof during political times and then goes up as well into the winter so that's good but i wonder how much of this boost in advertising revenue is going to be based on politics and the election cycle in which case uh the first quarter next year could be a little softer and we might have to dampen our expectations for google but phenomenal company definitely a company to own personally i like this stock much more when it has a one and a five in the front i think it's close to seventeen hundred dollars at the time of this recording and after hours it's up like 8.4 this is another one that i will trickle into in my portfolio not super jazzed about buying this one individually and certainly not when it's up 8.4 but great great company and their cloud business is blowing up on top of that their cloud business grew 45 that is insane growth year over year and that right now google their cloud structure has generated more revenue in the first nine months of 2020 than they did in all of 2019.
and again so they're up 8.4 after hours great great company next quarter they'll also be breaking out their cloud earnings separately when they report their earnings so that way we'll get a better comparison of sort of quarter over quarter metrics for google great smashing earnings here though definitely a company to own as well so google apple we've got one down that one that's up i think both of these you got to have them in your portfolio four to five percent right around there perfect weight in my opinion i love these uh just like i love amazon amazon's down about one and a half percent at the time of this recording this company is hiring like crazy and you know that creates some complications when you're hiring like crazy especially in a pandemic you've got to provide more mass you've got to provide more worker safety how many more stories are we going to see during this pandemic of amazon employees going on strike because of a lack of proper safety standards because of covet or people getting covered of course people are going to get covert they have over a million employees now they added 250 000 jobs just in the last quarter a hundred thousand of those are seasonal yeah but still 250 100 of those are seasonal but 250 in total that's still an extra 150 000 people their demand is explosive in fact if we compare their revenue for like for this quarter compared to your like year over year last quarter or last year rather last year's quarter at the same time q3 we're up 37.3 and if we go back one more year to 2018 we're up 70 in top line revenue that's how much this how much people are using amazon to buy has exploded in the last couple years this is a company that also suffers from the lora of large numbers it's a huge company but in terms of owning this company quality company love it their amazon web services also grew at a pace of 29 slower than the 35 percent we saw last year you know again lot of large numbers going to be hard to kind of keep sustaining massive growth figures but in terms of safety and a company to hold and own long term you got to have apple amazon google these are phenomenal companies personally i like amazon when it's under 3 000 even over 3000 i mean if we just look back six seven months it's like oh my gosh amazon 3000 no way but for what it is now right now in after hours we're trading at about 31.47 to me if we can get this under 32 ideally under 3000 if we get any kind of larger pullback in the market but this is a great company to own so any of this pullback here might this one and a half percent pullback to me another opportunity to buy it keep it in the portfolio uh facebook facebook's actually not something i'm very heavy in on i've lost a lot of enthusiasm for facebook we've got a lot of drama with a facebook and censorship obviously facebook and twitter are both falling victims to this uh facebook's pretty much flat after hours their daily active users are up 12 percent year over year their employees are up 32 i mean that's huge employee growth so i mean hats off to facebook they are hiring like crazy as facebook and instagram great great work here revenue at facebook was 21.47 billion much better than expected but still stock mostly flat to me facebook i hold it at about one percent of my portfolio so i've obviously got like five times as much of uh apple than i have facebook i've got more google than i've got facebook but uh you know great stock i can't say anything bad about it except other than it's not something that i see a lot of value in throwing more money into we'll talk about the value stock coming up in just a moment but let me also on that note talk about twitter twitter is one that i added to my portfolio somewhere around 44 45 and twitter ran up today right before earnings twitter ran up about eight percent and after earnings fell 15 and so twitter is pretty much right back at 44 which is around where i bought it and this is mostly because twitter had its slowest quarter of user growth ever like you look at the charts it's like up up up up up and then like nothing it was that's very very bad only adding 1 million daily users in the last quarter they gained 20 million daily users during the last quarter and substantially many more millions in the prior quarters in fact this year we're up 42 million users but they only added 1 million of those in this last quarter very very bad sign that's not good growth especially for a tech company where we want to see consistent growth upon growth not so good now again you know twitter ran up substantially during the day so most of that was just given up tesla still or not tesla twitter still looks like it's down substantially after hours though 15 so they gave up a little bit more not so great but you're seeing a lot of this pain coming in because of the drama going on in the political climate right now in fact here's a quote in q2 many brands slowed or paused in reaction spending right ad spending in reaction to u.s civil unrest only to increase spend relatively quickly thereafter in an effort to catch up you got to be careful though when you have people basically saying okay i'm going to pause spending on ads at twitter and i'm going to put it somewhere else people might get convinced to put money somewhere else so for me i've got twitter at a two percent holding to me i i i if this continues this this growth trajectory and the next i might give him one more quarter but if uh you know twitter goes on to another slow growth period here in the winter after the election including the election november and then obviously december i'm gonna be very nervous about twitter's growth going forward because obviously growth leads to more advertisers you know advertisers don't like to spend money on a platform that's declining if twitter goes to a decline in monthly active users that would be devastating now that is actually possible why is that possible well think about it pandemic starts everybody's like oh crap i'm going to go on twitter for the latest news which in fairness to twitter yeah they had a huge spike so you get this huge spike everybody starts using twitter then the pandemic kind of starts fading you know a lot of us still kind of stuck at home but still a lot of people went back to work you stopped using twitter as much you could actually see a decline in user growth at twitter and that does make me nervous partially there's there's part of me that says i might want to push twitter down to one percent i'm not convinced on selling twitter i like them in the portfolio i think twitter is a great way to get information fast but i do worry that the market is not going to value twitter very kindly if they go to a negative active user base we'll see we got october and november so the next earnings report could be promising so that's why i'm tempted to stick it out with twitter for the next quarter see how it is but uh after this next quarter unless this next quarter surprises us and we actually get some solid growth again i'm gonna be nervous that we're gonna get a switch to a decline and that's going to be bad news for twitter on the other hand let's talk about the stock that i am like jumping up and down about right now on the inside because uh well wow so this stock is up 27 today advertising revenue shot up insanely like 57 it's crazy this company is now actively integrating ads with all of their amazing content and i am very devastated that i deleted this app like five years ago and never thought about looking at it again uh but but now i'm looking at it again i'm like holy smokers this is this is really cool so the app i'm talking about is let's pull it up pinterest okay look pinterest i i more dudes watch my channel than women watch my channel and the reality is about two-thirds of pinterest's users are women so they're going to be a lot of dudes right now rolling their eyes like come on two-thirds of their users are women okay they this includes eight out of ten moms who are often the primary decision makers when it comes to buying products and services for their households as well as more than half of all u.s millennials aged 18 to 34.
look at this folks let me show you why this is blowing my mind all right how's did this but houzz did not do this as well as pinterest is doing it i picked up on etsy about five six months ago when it was around 70 and i've never looked back i love etsy but folks here's what i love about pinterest and and i just installed this app so don't think that these recommendations are tailored to me okay i picked like three categories and i haven't clicked much at all uh but so anyway you click this in here and uh oh cool that's a cool little thing or whatever you can then click on the picture and it takes you to exactly where to buy it now many of you might be thinking like oh duck kevin come on like we already knew that but this is so huge from a branding perspective and here's why and this is etsy by the way so etsy is a beneficiary of this this is really good i mean let me show you one more here like this one was really interesting look at this eight seater uh swing table now that one was expensive let's look at something else here let's do this one look at this bookshelf here you click on it oh you want that no problem you click on it boom takes you to roomandboard.com so you got etsy you got roomandboard.com you got like a million of these websites where people can sell their you know expensive products or whatever and so pinterest is this beneficiary of being able to advertise all these products without actually having to own them sell them deliver them deal with the customer service on these products pinterest doesn't care about any of that because you're buying the product through this so all that etsy or i'm sorry all that pinterest is really doing is trying to use an algorithm to understand what you might be interested in see i clicked on more home objects so now it's showing me more home objects smart see i clicked on the thing with the you know with the wd-40 holders now it's taking me to tiphero.com for wall organizers okay let's let's try one more thing what are they showing off over here and almost everything is clickable that is i mean it's so cool it takes me to uh this article here a closet door here bath door here i mean this is phenomenal look at that floor plan everything if you're gonna remodel a home i mean this is genius see look and now now it knows i like organizers and so it's given me more of what i want i mean this is machine learning for you right here we just demonstrated machine learning learning uh so let's try it again let's let's click on this right here and you kind of get the idea so let me get to the point of this because i'm going to talk about the valuation this this company is brilliant because they are selling ads to get basically their product to show up here now i have not yet found how it see now i'm only getting organizers here oh here we go see here promoted by td ameritrade okay not bad so uh promoted by target not bad either so that's how they're getting these uh these ads in here lose weight fast i wonder if that's a suggestion are they trying to say something here okay so you get these ads that are sort of built in here and they don't even look like ads they almost kind of see this promoted by walmart this one doesn't even feel like an ad it feels like it just fits in that's very very good and that's something they said in their annual earnings report i went back to their annual and then their quarterly and one of the things they said is they want to provide ads that aren't intrusive but instead are inspirational and that is a huge thing that they're doing and that is in such utter contrast to facebook and twitter think about this folks facebook and twitter more often than not especially twitter very negative it's not inspiring it doesn't induce happy feelings pinterest inspires inspiration do-it-yourself project weight loss cooking you know whatever segments they're in travel camping and all this stuff uh and then you know what here we'll even pull it up really quick while i talk about it let's let's type in camping okay let's do that camping there we go camping uh okay cool so we got some camping stuff here i don't know 26 essential camping dollar store supplies mamacheeps.com i mean i i'm blown away so it links you to the blogs and then these blogs looks like maybe i could buy the things on so this one didn't look like it had a store but let's see if we could do another one here purple mattress is being promoted after i put in camping purple is one that we did really well on purple we're up on uh you know like 50 on fifth element promoted by target some camping stuff here okay so a lot of blogs here camping ideas i'm sure it'd be easy though for them to start see look we had an advertiser here advertising and promoting this axe ninety dollars in stock bespokepost.com it's a saw song it's an axe in one uh i mean brilliant how would i ever have found bespokepost.com i would have never found like i don't know any i've never heard about them maybe because i'm not i'm not camping right now you know i'm sitting here with a fedora and you know an inspector gadget jacket but uh what i mean like if i'm bespokepost.com do i want to do ads for combination acts and hacksaw or or whatever saw this is or am i just going to go yo promote me under camping on pinterest holy crap like i am blown away so you're going with a positive direction here you are giving brands the perfect place to advertise your product outside of google and amazon which google and amazon's such competitive spaces to advertise on you're going with positivity you're also promoting blogs and and uh brands on top you know together so you're providing value in your how-to articles and here are products for you to buy all mixed together in a place houzz.com did this very similarly houzz.com great website i will say though houzz.com was not in my opinion great at making sure that every picture had something clickable see like let's just pull up house really quick here so this is an example of houzz uh and what i always found confusing about houzz is you'll get these articles and then you get suggested products that are like related categories and you're not necessarily getting exactly what's in the picture here let's get some inspiration here from kitchen uh okay so let's try this one let's see if they've improved because this is obviously competition here see look we have this little tag of an item here let me click that is that the sink see i don't love that see they have an algorithm here that uh that gives you all of these suggestions but that's not necessarily what's there because that looks like a black farmhouse porcelain sink and when i click on that tag i see what looks like a yeah we couldn't find any visually similar products see it's trying to guess and it's giving me stainless steel none of these are a porcelain farmhouse see this is like a copper yup see copper see this is where pinterest is crushing house like i would rather browse house because if i see something i want that like if i see this that that drawer right here i'm like i want that and i want my apples and my potatoes in that i want it how do i get it how do i get it i don't know there's a trash can pull out where did you purchase these wire baskets i wanted i wound up finding them through california closets and easy closets great but now you're replying you're you're expecting people to actually reply to comments pinterest crushing crushing houzz.com right now so let's talk a little bit about valuation and what i'm doing so uh let's pull up valuation here i put together a spreadsheet uh in my opinion if we see the cool thing about pinterest is if we see 20 growth year over year in my opinion for the next you know three years so 2021 2022 2023 just 20 growth which right now they're growing at like a 55 to 60 clip okay if we just go to 20 growth in my opinion this is easily a 100 stock in the next few years if not even more i'm very very excited about this stock to me i'm comfortable buying this stock i i it's a money losing company right now which makes it very difficult to value in today's pricing because they lose money but a lot of their expenses are going into general and administration and research and development as they're fine-tuning their algorithm and they're growing and finding more customers that are willing to be advertisers i think there are a lot of dudes like me out there who have no idea what the heck is going on with pinterest especially with a percentage of people who are women who are using pinterest this makes me very excited about pinterest now when we look at you know pinterest from sort of a technical standpoint obviously it just shot up like 26 it's down uh you know one percent one and yeah one and a half percent in after hours this makes it very frustrating to buy because it's going to be substantially green it had earnings this morning it had its green day today it's going to be red tomorrow let's go ahead and put a pinterest and pull it up its rsi is going to be terrible so this is uh stock ticker symbol pins p-i-n-s and uh wow i mean we we had a large explosion here obviously in in the share price let's go ahead and add the relative strength indicator here and see if we can get the rsi in here so there's almost no doubt that this is going to be a pretty dang overbought right now yup it's overbought so you know it makes it difficult to buy this uh right now but wow i will tell you i am very enthused let's go back to let's see march march we hit oversold when's and then we have not hit oversold since then let's go ahead and zoom in a little bit let's just go to the last last run up here yeah we have not seen the stocks over sell in in quite a while honestly i mean we have had a low point here in june low point in july you know a little bit of a low point september this this is a tough one because the the growth here is phenomenal i'm very very interested in pins this is one of those stocks that i think i want to just be in so i might not care about the short-term technicals part of me is concerned though that usually after you get a big run-up like this of 26.92 you're going to see some sort of sell-off i hate buying when a stock has run up like this but the growth prospects here are are absolutely phenomenal i do expect there to be some pullbacks over the next few weeks and just the broader markets likely to pull back so what i'm probably going to do is i'm going to put pinterest into my 1337 collection probably somewhere around three percent i'm gonna put them right there with google uh i might move twitter down from two percent to one percent and then i'll rearrange to find where else i can take to give pinterest a little bit more love i do want to leave up work in there i still want to leave apple tesla amazon as some some of my strongholds but pinterest this is a company that that uh you know i think we want to be a part of and not a part of not so there's there's my big update on stocks today thank you so much for watching hopefully you found this helpful if you liked it
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