저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 미국이 이미 경기침체에 들어갔고 유럽·중국도 침체 상태라 글로벌 경기침체가 진행 중이라고 봤다. 경기와 금리: 연준이 매우 공격적·매파적으로 바뀌었지만, 실업·물가 등 후행지표가 나오면 9월 회의에서 한 번 재고할 것으로 예상했다. 기업 실적 발표에서도 침체가 확인될 것이라고 봤다. 물가: 인플레이션보다 디플레이션이 더 큰 위험이라고 주장했다. 가격 하락 신호(주식·채권·원자재·코인·향후 주택)가 많아진다고 봤다. 기술 발전에 의한 디플레이션은 좋은 것이라는 입장이다. 채권: 올해 채권은 역사상 최악의 성과이며 빛은 연준의 긴축 종료 신호에서 올 수 있다고 봤다. 주식: S&P500은 연초 대비 약 -20%, 나스닥은 약 -30%로 1962년 이후 최악의 연초 성과라고 설명했다. 비트코인: 최고점 69,000달러(2021년 11월)에서 현재 약 19,500달러로 하락했다. 200주 이동평균선(약 22,500달러) 아래라 이 선이 새 저항이 될 수 있다고 봤다. 데스크로스, 하락 삼각형 등 약세 신호가 다섯 가지 겹쳐 있다고 지적했다. 월간 변동성이 줄어들며 4~5월처럼 급락이 다시 올 위험이 있다고 경고했다. 코인 시장 붕괴: 루나·테라의 알고리즘 스테이블코인은 기초 자산이 없어 실패가 예견됐고, 셀시우스·보이저·쓰리애로우스캐피털·블록파이 등 연쇄 부실이 일어났다. 블록파이 기업가치는 30억 달러에서 2.4억 달러 수준으로 크게 떨어졌다. 투자 전략: 약세장에서 투자자를 위한 최선의 전략은 혁신 기업에 집중하는 것이며, 경기침체가 만든 문제를 해결하는 혁신 기업에서 실질 성장을 찾을 수 있다고 강조했다. 향후: 아크 인베스트가 '전염 대 항복(Contagion vs Capitulation)' 비트코인 월간 보고서를 발간하며 온체인 분석으로 시장 항복 여부를 살펴본다고 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
well crypto had its worst quarter since 2011 and it's a much more mature Market than it was back then with the boom bust so that's saying something the s p downed 20 percent year-to-date NASDAQ down roughly 30 percent so the stock market has not seen a worse a worse year to date since 1962. and uh and that was when the Cuban Crystal Missile Crisis took place uh and then what happened after that is we ended up uh in the Great Society guns and butter and uh inflation took off but first the stock market was was a barn burner it was uh very hot from 62 to 66.
uh when it comes to bonds uh this has been the worst year to date performance in bonds in anyone's lifetime um and by some measures you have to piecemeal uh the bonds but uh to to try and get the record uh the worst since 1788 you know that's more than 250 years ago so uh or almost 250 years ago so it's been a very very rough rough market for investors uh we think there is light at the end of the tunnel the light is that the FED is getting a lot of uh signals that will ultimately end up in the lagging indicators called the PPI and the CPI they're getting a lot of indicators and I think a lot of companies are going to be telegraphing in their earnings reports this next month that we are in recession and I do believe the FED uh will do a a double take thank you hello and welcome to moneytalks in today's video arc invest CEO and CIO Kathy Wood updates about the current market signals why the FED has become extremely aggressive and hawkish and why she believes that the U.S economy is in recession after Europe and China Kathy Wood also shares the thoughts on deflation and how it is a bigger risk than inflation reasons behind crypto's worst quarter since 2011 and why Terra Luna experiment didn't work make sure to stick around till the end of this video where Kathy Wood reveals what is the best strategy for investors in this rough Bitcoin bear market so without wasting any more time let's Dive Right into this video I want to spend a little time on crypto it has been an incredible month and fears of systemic collapse have been Rife in the marketplace uh so we we've seen uh Bitcoin it peaked way back in November at 69 000 and it is now at 19.
uh 19 500. um uh it is still higher than its pre-covered seven to ten thousand range and it is just about at its uh twin uh 2017 high so this could be some support it's also at um it's it's it is below it's uh it's 200 week moving average uh which is at twenty two thousand five hundred so there is some concern that that is the new resistance now as we've seen in the last last month play out talk about a reach for yield crypto personified that defy personified that when and we knew that the Luna Terra experiment with algorithmic stable stable coins was not going to work it was backed by nothing and I remember we did a podcast with dokwan it's still on our site and I remember listening to it twice because I I couldn't understand what he was doing or saying I am an economist by background and and so I really do try and noodle through these things and I just didn't think that was going to work and it failed in spectacular fashion in in May uh and uh and has taken Celsius down with it uh Voyager digital three-hour arrows Capital uh blockfi almost it was very interesting uh to see blockfy's last funding round at three billion dollars this is a lending platform and tried to do another round recently at one billion dollars uh he that couldn't get it done and today it seems that uh FTX um is going to uh is going to buy it out or it has the option to buy the equity for 240 million a rumor this week had it at 25 million so much better than that but much worse less than a tenth of its last round Bitcoin prices see a sharp drop in volatility as the new monthly pivots come in more narrowly from each and other as they did in June a similar pattern can be spotted between April and May where in May the falling knife got executed that at one point had wiped out 30 percent of the market cap the risk at hand is that a similar move could happen in the coming month as almost two hands are needed to count all the bearish signals in Bitcoin the bad news is that the FED has become extremely aggressive and hawkish the good news is that we are beginning to get data that is confirming uh that the economy the U.S economy is in recession and and if you've tuned in before you you know that we believe that that Europe and China effectively have been in recession as well so now a global recession uh we're also getting a lot of indicators that uh prices are coming down and I think this notion that the inflation that everyone has been worried about uh is is quite uh quite a wrong way of looking at the world right now we believe that deflation is the much bigger risk we've been saying this for a time uh we've been ridiculed for saying it uh and we were challenged by those who were sure that we were back into a 70s style inflation uh scenario uh we think that that the the pricing action and I'm not just talking about stocks and bonds I'm talking about commodity prices uh crypto uh prices uh and and perhaps soon even housing prices uh that many people will conclude the greater risk is deflation and as you know uh we don't think deflation is a Bad Thing per se it is a bad thing the way the FED has approached it we believe but deflation can be a very good thing if it is caused by technology and progress and we think we're going to see a lot of that over the years but right now we're looking at bad deflation and we're going to have to get through this I think the next fed move is supposed to be at the end of this month bitcoin price is already mentioned in several places in a downtrend marked by death cross where the 55-day simple moving average has broken below the 200-day simple moving average and to make it even worse that same 55-day SMA is working as a cap on the price Action Moving alongside the downtrend as a watchdog parallel with that declining 55-day SMA a red descending trend line is acting as the backbone of the downtrend forming a bearish triangle with the base at 19036 and acts as the upper leg of a bearish trend Channel with the old blue ascending trend line as the lower leg reading back that makes five bearish elements currently hanging over bitcoin price action and only dragging it further down and the FED is out of its quiet period so all the FED Governors have been traipsing out saying we're going 75 basis points another 75 basis points um well we think that they will rethink that this uh in this month as we get uh not only more pricing signals but earnings reports and guidance for for from companies who uh will be probably confirming that the US is now in recession so bad news good news darkest before the dawn we called this segment finding growth we think growth is going to be scarce this year and as you know Innovation is all about growth Innovation is also about solving problems we have a lot of problems now a recession is going to be providing another set of problems so lots of work for Innovation to do and that's where we believe you will find real growth Market forces called supply and demand influence bitcoin's price the price typically decreases when there are more sellers or vice versa investors carry out their commercial transactions directly as opposed to using a middleman the peer-to-peer Network removes trade restrictions and streamlines Commerce Satoshi Nakamoto first proposed the world's first cryptocurrency in 2008 which was launched in January 2009.
the number of businesses accepting Bitcoin is growing daily giving it a real market value however this virtual currency has been severely hampered by security issues and volatility even at the height of its popularity it was challenging to find precise answers to common questions like what determines bitcoin's value who sets bitcoin's price and whether Bitcoin has an intrinsic value the same market dynamics I.E supply and demand that affect the price of other goods and services also decide the value of Bitcoin prices will probably rise if there are more buyers than sellers or vice versa furthermore it is essential to note that the price of Bitcoin is not determined by a single entity nor can it be traded in a single location based on supply and demand each market or exchange sets its own price uh so and it's not just happening in crypto clarna just announced I believe that its last round was in the 45 billion dollar range this is a fintech company and it is doing around now at six and a half billion dollars so big big down around happening very quickly we have or we will put out today at our Bitcoin monthly we started it last month and the title is Contagion versus capitulation and as you know if you if you saw our last report we have a lot of on-chain analytics which give us a sense of um of the capitulation in the marketplace and also a sense of what is going bad out there the transparency uh in in the market I think is the reason we've seen a lot of failures very quickly so do you think Kathy Wood is right about the reasons behind terror's collapse tell us in the comments down below also don't forget to like And subscribe I'll see you in the next video and thanks so much for watching thank you
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