저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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Chamath은 엔비디아를 AI·메타버스·자율주행 시대의 운영체제로 보고 시가총액 상승 여력이 크다고 주장하며, 인터넷 인프라 과잉투자 사례를 근거로 애플리케이션 수요가 뒤따를 것이라 말한다. 영상 후반부는 Bill Burich 등 다른 출연자의 나스닥 및 대형주(Meta 등) 비중 축소, 금리 인하 전망, 실업률 상승 가능성 논의로 이어진다.
다듬은 글
look Nvidia is more than just a semiconductor firm it is the operating system of the future in trillion doll markets like AI the metaverse and driverless cars Nvidia is the key folks we're talking about a 50x potential it's obvious it's not a gamble Up Until Now intel was essentially the mother of all modern Computing isn't that correct the CPU in my opinion was the most essential component that made local PCS networking and the internet possible for instance its market capitalization is currently at $180 billion but the economy it built and sustains is likely worth a trillion 2 trillion or even trillion let's just be incredibly giving shall we as a result you may observe that there is a ratio between an economy's facilitator and its size and that these factors are typically stable they keep happening the question for NVIDIA in my opinion is not whether it will increase in the next 18 to 24 months given Microsoft's market capitalization in relation to the economy it supports but rather whether it will for the exact reason you mentioned it is well positioned to have excellent meat and beat guidance for the street which they will devour and all of the algorithms that trade the press releases will raise the price this will only lead to an upward Trend the more important question in my opinion is whether it can sustain a $100 trillion economy if its Market capitalization is $4 or5 trillion in the next 2 or 3 years for those ratios to persist you would have to think that otherwise everything on the internet would have just collapsed Microsoft showed its adaptability and foresight by using its Market leadership in OS systems to break into and dominate other software areas including server software Enterprise Solutions and even entertainment with Xbox in addition to diversifying its sources of income this multi-rom strategy solidified its position as a full service technology supplier they will come if you develop it as the internet's history demonstrates this means that even though it was difficult to foresee them at the time apps that power the next generation of applications have always been produced if the capital assets required to power them are invested in during the bubble and subsequent crisis in the late 1990s all of the Telecom firms built out a massive amount of fiber in addition to servers and networking equipment Worldcom Cisco and other Telecom firms were at their height some even filed for bankruptcy the issue was that a large portion of the construction was financed by debt which is why many failed when the do com bust occurred and valuations dropped Cisco wasn't in that situation but my point is that everyone believed that these Telecom Giants had overinvestment down occurred in the early 2000s in the end it turned out that all of that fiber was utilized the internet transition from dialup to broadband and social networking streaming and other applications began to consume that bandwidth therefore I believe that if you construct the infrastructure to support them the apps will eventually be built and developed as someone who is more of an application investor the thing about a that excites me is that I believe we are only beginning to see the vast array of new applications and Innovation that will be developed it will also be B2B it is not just b2c you haven't really addressed the fact that businesses will also be using these cloud data centers to purchase all of these gpus in addition to Consumers and consumer apps there's still a lot to come considering that these businesses are utilizing AI Google cloud and other tools this is only the start of a trend that is likely to continue for at least 10 years all right so the NASDAQ is down almost a third of a percent today but it has gained a lot of ground since Monday the low two weeks ago I bring it up because Bill burich is currently joining us via phone and he's making some fascinating moves in that area a few names have been trimmed by you media Apple Amazon Google meta is that a summary at the end would you mind explaining the rationale behind the removal of these Mega cap names yes without a doubt I came across several names and cut them all down by 10% to 20% listen following that significant volatility event we'd have had eight days in a row of positive trading following that event I appeared on the show a few times to share all of the purchases I was making however four rate cuts that were priced in with a 63.7% likelihood also contributed to this rise last week's better than expected retail sales and better than expected unemployment claims kind of contribute to Jerome Powell's performance this Friday there is a lot of resistance at this point in addition to the fact that the Nas I want to be prepared for the instability that September brings as Steph just mentioned we only own 10 names in our Focus portfolio which we trimmed overall however meta was our largest holding which we trimmed by roughly 24% right now I have nothing against any of these names the goal is to give people additional options in the upcoming weeks okay there may be some danger ahead let's see what transpires with your cherished stock I'm going to advise you to purchase it with caution Tyler you have to wade into that do well as long as the competition to develop AA and the race to acquire it contined over the next 5 years they still anticipate a 40% increase in this company's earnings with this significant earnings growth it is decreased from 48 times 2024 earnings to 34 times next year despite the fact that it is a cyclical sector and likely has a few years remaining the a momentum behind those earnings in my opinion has the potential to propull this company higher even at a $3 trillion Market valuation I believe that this is a dollar cost average in if you wish to create a position you would like to have a position in this area if it were blank it must be a suitable risk for your portfolio but it need not be a whole position and must adhere to your investment philosophy and discipline consult your adviser now no changes have been made to the length or meaning all grammatical problems have been fixed this should be a benign cutting cycle that is beneficial for markets since in my opinion the life lihood of a soft Landing is increasing however since the FED missed the inflation turn due to data dependency I believe it is crucial that they stop using it additionally I believe that they are now missing the softness but might it be that the lag isn't because they're now overly restrictive they end up completing 50 or a few 50s and we don't know how strong the lag impact of the higher rates could be is that feasible I believe the FED is likely lagging a bit because Futures markets are indicating more than two cuts there is a lot of suffering since as we all know the housing durable goods and auto sales are all in a recession in fact cutting more aggressively might make sense at least from the standpoint of the market since you're interested in Market Cycles where do you believe unemployment Peaks will we reach five do we surpass the 5% unemployment rate since many businesses are currently apprehensive due to the tight monetary policy and real rates you know a lot of it has to do with how the FED interacts with CEOs they are hesitant to grow as a result as a result the job market itself somewhat depends on the fed's actions indeed it might you know things could turn terrible once the labor market starts to see an increase in unemployment Josh Nvidia will be here next week you briefly discussed it previously in the show we don't discuss
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