저자: LiLu · 외국인
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결론: 리루는 가치투자 원칙을 유지하며 중국 시장을 합리적 가치투자자의 사냥터로 보고, 전기차·애플 등 장기 성장 테마를 지지하지만 단기 가격 예측은 하지 않는다. 투자 전략 변화: 약 28년간 가치투자를 해왔으며, 초기에는 벤저민 그레이엄식으로 재무상태표상 순자산 대비 싼 기업에 투자했다. 이후 소형·초기 기업에 투자하고 공동 창업까지 하며 기업 질을 판단하는 능력을 키웠고, 현재는 높은 투하자본이익률을 지속할 수 있는 우량 기업을 적정 가치보다 싸게 사는 단계에 있다. 찰리 멍거 관계: 2003~2004년경 멍거가 펀드에 투자하며 인연이 시작됐고, 수년간 매주 화요일 저녁 식사를 함께했으며 팬데믹으로 중단됐다. 멍거에게서 가장 큰 영향을 받았다고 언급했다. 우량 기업 기준: 높은 투하자본이익률을 장기간 유지할 수 있어야 하며, 이를 막는 경쟁 우위(해자)가 필요하다. 그런 기업을 적정가치 이하에서 사면 틀려도 손실이 제한적이다. 리루의 차별점: 다른 투자자를 거의 보지 않고 기업 연구에 가장 많은 시간을 쓰며, 이해될 때까지 공부하고 이해가 안 되면 관심목록에 둔다. 지지 논리를 반대 측보다 더 잘 반박할 수 있어야 한다는 지적 정직성을 강조한다. 거시경제: 금리·통화정책 등 극단적 상황이 아니면 크게 신경 쓰지 않으며, 변동성은 우량 기업을 싸게 살 기회로 본다. 중국 시장: 중국은 소비·소매 중심 경제로 전환 중이며 2020년 세계 최대 소매시장이 되었다. 중산층 확대가 이어질 것이라 보며, 투자자 성숙도가 낮아 가격 왜곡이 잦아 가치투자자에게 기회가 많다고 본다. 전기차: 전동화는 확실한 흐름이지만 승자 선택은 어렵다. 자사 보유 BYD를 언급했고, 애플 전기차 투자 가능성도 거론했다. 투자자 조언: 주식을 기업 100% 소유자처럼 생각할 것, 지적 정직성을 유지하고 반대 논리를 이해할 것, 기업 역사와 위대한 기업가들의 사례를 많이 공부할 것.
다듬은 글
hey it's tom here and welcome back to the channel in this video i'm going to give you my personal highlights of a recent interview that was done with lilu now lilu is one of my favorite investors he's the only investor that charlie munger has ever put his money with and he also is someone that doesn't often do interviews so i was really excited to see this one come up uh lee lou for those who don't know manages himalaya capital it's sort of a focused value investing uh firm and he has a phenomenal track record right all the way back to 28 years ago when he was investing his student loan money as well as doing two degrees and recently moving to the us so uh he's got a phenomenal story he's a great investor uh and he went through basically a whole lot of really interesting lessons throughout this talk which was done uh between himself and bruce greenwald who's sort of a value investing teacher at columbia university kind of following on in the tradition of of benjamin graham so i do hope you enjoyed the video i will leave a link down in the description below to the full interview with lilo if you want to go and check that out for yourself it's about an hour and a half long uh but i definitely recommend checking that one out but for now let's get into my personal highlights and i hope you enjoy all right so the first thing that was covered in this talk was basically a history of lilu's investment strategy he uh has been value investing for about 28 years after initially hearing uh warren buffett actually come to speak at columbia university in one of bruce greenwald's classes and uh that really kind of set him off from there he has had a sort of bit of a change in the way that he actually uses value investing and practice over that 28 years but really fundamentally the idea of trying to buy something for less than its intrinsic value uh still remains the same but nonetheless let's kind of get into lilu's transformation over those 28 years so lilu basically starts out by saying when he first started investing he really didn't know much about how to analyze businesses he had recently moved to the us from china china at the time was going through a huge amount of reform and there weren't any really free markets and you know capitalist societies for him to kind of try and understand businesses so the way that he really started out was very much the ben graham cigar but type investing uh really focusing on the balance sheet of a company looking at its assets and its liabilities and trying to buy businesses that were trading at prices that were extremely cheap compared to sort of the net assets of those businesses and he said that that investment strategy basically treated him really well but over time he actually began to learn more about how to analyze particular businesses and that sort of brought him to kind of the second stage of his investment philosophy and this one i was actually a little bit surprised to hear but it's a very interesting part of lilu's journey nonetheless and basically that was starting to invest in smaller businesses and even businesses that were so small that he was co-funding them as startups or he was actually helping to sort of co-create them when they're in the startup phase and the couple of core learnings for lee lou at that point we're really uh helping him to identify what makes a good business and what makes a poor business and what makes an average business and that really helped inform sort of the third stage of investment that he currently sits in now so he's now started to invest in really good businesses so he's gone from uh basically a balance sheet focus where the business doesn't matter at all it's basically just what does the company own we can liquidate it tomorrow and make it make a profit kind of thing so the the profit engine of the business is really not that important uh through to smaller businesses early stage businesses and now through to buying really good businesses and also having to focus more specifically on asia uh and sort of more specifically within asia uh he really focuses a lot on china which i will get to later in this video he had quite a few comments to make on investing in the chinese stock market one of the things that i picked up from that sort of journey that lilu has gone through is that he's certainly not the only investor to go through that journey it sounds very very familiar with what warren buffett did with what charlie munger did uh and they sort of both started out being taught by ben graham buying cigar but businesses they probably didn't do too much of the early stage stuff that lilu did but they certainly transitioned towards buying higher quality businesses over time and that sort of led lilu to talk a little bit about basically his biggest influence in his life probably ever and that is charlie munger now he said that he by just absolute chance met charlie munger in about 2003 2004 and charlie munger decided to become an investor in lilu's fund and uh i knew that story i knew that lilu and charlie munger knew each other well and i knew that manga was an investor in lilu's fund but i didn't really realize how close their relationship actually was and lilu went on to say that he basically had dinner uh every tuesday night with charlie munger for years and uh remembering that their relationship really only started in 2003 2004 it's been going on for quite some time now uh he said that those tuesday night dinners that happened every single week uh really only stopped very recently it only stopped when the sort of pandemic uh came into their part of the world and they basically couldn't have those tuesday night dinners any longer but nonetheless over that very long period of time charlie munger has clearly had a massive influence and been a big role model for lilu and that's not only in investing but in the way that he leads his life but bringing it back to investing um basically lilu described some qualities of what he would call a great business and he basically defined a great business again as influenced by charlie munger as something that earns a high return on invested capital now this is of course something we talk about all the time on the channel as well and lilu basically said that good businesses earn a high return on invested capital um but the really really good businesses can keep doing that over a long period of time one of the things that a high return on investor capital does is it attracts competition because everyone wants a high return on invested capital everyone wants to invest a dollar into a certain business or a certain industry and earn a very high return on that dollar so in order to make a great business you have to have some sort of characteristic or enduring quality or moat as buffett and nunga might call it that allows that business to earn a high return on invest capital for a long period of time because that really goes against the natural order of things was kind of how lilu put it and over time your results as an investor will very closely match the long run return on invested capital that that business can earn but he also talked about trying to buy these businesses still at reasonable prices below intrinsic value he basically said that if you can buy one of those businesses below intrinsic value it means that if you get into that company and you are wrong it's probably unlikely you're going to lose a significant amount of money and if you're right and they do earn that high return on invested capital for a long period of time and have a long runway for growth then you're likely to do quite well as an investor in that business the next key takeaway for me was when lilu got talking about uh or got asked at least what he does differently from other investors he has a much better investment track record than other investors and uh he was really asked you know what what do you do differently how are you achieving this and lilu basically said well he doesn't quite know what other investors do because he doesn't pay any attention to them and i think that's quite a key insight actually from lee liu but these are kind of a few of the things that he does with his time how he spends his days uh in terms of trying to be a good investor so he basically says that he spends as much time as possible just studying businesses he doesn't pay that much attention to like i say what others are doing or short-term price movements or macro economics which i'll get to in a second uh he really just tries to spend as much time as possible studying companies and if there's some company that he can't understand he will just keep studying it until he gets it into a circle of confidence and until he does really understand it he'll just keep working and working and working on that business and on that industry until he understands it well enough to be comfortable putting a you know big percentage of his net worth and all this fund into that company should it get to the right price and he says you know sometimes you can work on these things for years and finally feel like you understand those businesses and the price is just out of your range and in that case it goes on a watch list and he kind of just keeps an eye on it and hopes to get a swing at it at some point but that's kind of the way that he runs his his days and he says that it's also really important to tie that in with being very intellectually honest and that's something he touched on a couple of times so not everyone can understand every business and industries and businesses change over time as well so it's really important to be honest with yourself and you know try and understand what you don't know and what you do know and be able to you know argue against someone who perhaps disagrees with your view on a particular company or business or industry i've been able to argue against them better than the best person out there on that side of the argument so if you've got someone that you know is short some particular company you're able to rebut all of their points far better and understand their negative viewpoint um far better than they do that's kind of the level of certainty that he's trying to get to with his investing like in many of these uh investing interviews he was of course asked about his opinion on the market right now and on macroeconomics and lilu basically said this and this is probably expected if you've followed probably any value investor for any period of time he said we don't pay much attention unless it's extreme and right now it probably is a little bit more on the extreme side in terms of what's going on with interest rates and money printing and quantitative easing and all sorts of stuff but he said it really doesn't affect the way that he invests he buys durable businesses that can really survive just about any economic environment uh and he says that you know these wild swings and fear and greed in the stock market actually help him they actually help him to buy good businesses at at you know cheap prices when people get fearful and it helps them to be able to potentially sell businesses should they get really expensive okay so the next topic that lee liu talked quite a bit about which was again a key takeaway for me was uh some of his thoughts on investing in china a lot of himalayan capital does invest in china and this really particularly caught my attention because just in the last week or so we have seen charlie munger actually put on a big position in alibaba which of course is a chinese company so um he basically went on to say that about 10 years ago you know he did an interview with i think was bruce greenwald again i might have to check the exact facts on that but um he basically came out and predicted that china would be an increasingly important component in the global market and that prediction was exactly true and his prediction uh remains the same he thinks that that will continue to happen over the next couple of decades and he said that um the sort of economy in china is changing somewhat so 10 years ago uh china was very much a trade focused economy they now are one of the largest traders in the world so when you grow to that point it's hard to grow much further if not everyone else can keep up with you so the country is sort of transitioning to more of a consumer and retail kind of based economy a little bit like the us and he said that last year in 2020 china was actually the largest retail market in the world for the very first time granted it was an unusual year but uh the middle class in china is growing they are spending more on consumables they are no longer having to focus quite as much as just putting food on the table and having the basic necessities of life of course there are plenty of people in china still in that situation but to a larger extent and a growing extent uh there are more people with sort of surplus discretionary income to basically just spend over and above their everyday basic needs and in summary he said that china is a great place for value investors for two main reasons he said firstly many of these industries are growing very quickly some faster than others uh but there are a lot of tailwinds behind china and and particular industries in china and the other thing he said is that mostly the stock market in china is filled with investors that are not as mature as they might be in the us so for that reason you have a lot more people focused on short-term trading in and out of stocks you have a lot more volatility in the stock market the booms and bus cycles tend to happen a lot more quickly and it means that good businesses get mispriced more often and like any good investor that really knows the intrinsic value of different companies and is able to assess that for different businesses the more wildly that price fluctuates in and around intrinsic value the more opportunity you basically have to make money and for that reason leeloo really thinks that china is a fantastic hunting ground uh for the rational value investor okay so two final topics that lilu talked about that i want to cover in this video uh the first one is the auto industry and electric vehicles and uh this is an interesting one because lilu has quite a big holding in a business called byd and uh so does charlie munger as influenced by lee lou and actually so does berkshire hathaway they actually had you know relatively modest position in byd but it's gone up so much particularly in the last year or two that it was actually featured in berkshire hathaway's top holdings in their recent annual letter so uh really interesting to hear some of lilu's thoughts on the automotive industry he basically said uh autos are a massive industry and it's a really tough business and uh there's sort of a few things all kind of hitting at once for many of these automakers so he said we've got things like electrification like ride sharing like autonomous driving uh all of these big mega trends in the industry basically all hitting at once and it's not like they can spend some time on electrification and you know then the business can spend some time on ride sharing and autonomous driving and all that sort of stuff you know maybe 10 or 20 years apart it's all kind of hitting at once and he thinks that uh for that reason there's a lot of new players and new entrants kind of coming into the market we've certainly seen that in the us with a lot of ipos of electric vehicle companies some are much more high quality than others some very very low quality i won't mention any names here i'm sure you know who those are lilu actually asked which businesses he thinks will succeed and he said you know a few things are basically certain and that's that electrification uh and so on will continue out into the future there will be more electric vehicles on the roads in ten years than there are today that is almost certain um but he really doesn't know how to pick a winner or at least he didn't explicitly come out and say one other than to say he will let his money speak for himself and that was a reference to firstly is holding in byd if you really want to get into the weeds you could potentially um look at the apple position in lilu's portfolio that is actually quite a recent addition and one that surprised me personally because uh apple looked relatively expensive to me at the time that he made that investment um but apple are also working on electric vehicles as well of course it's not a big component of their business at all yet it's i believe zero dollars in revenue for now but we will we will see how that one plays out and the final thing i will touch on from this talk from lee liu is basically three points of advice or three tips that he would give to younger investors that are just starting out in this industry and um he really basically said that firstly you have to adopt an owner's mentality when you invest in the stock market when you buy businesses he uh basically tells all his young analysts uh you know if you were to have some relative pass away and leave you uh all the shares in a company you own 100 of the business and you have to make a decision on whether to sell that company or continue holding it and having it operate i said he wants you to treat every business that you ever invest in like that because that really puts you in a very different mindset it means that you'll work a lot harder to understand that business than you might have otherwise if you just treat it as some random stock he said if you really treat yourself like an owner of the company you will analyze that very very deeply and before you make any decision you will understand the business extremely well compared to uh how well you might have understood it otherwise and how rationally you may have made decisions otherwise so that's the first thing is adopt an owner's mentality the second thing he said was to maintain intellectual honesty and this goes back to something i spoke about earlier in this video with um basically just being honest with yourself uh admitting you know what you do know and what you don't know and trying to continually challenge your beliefs when it comes to a particular company you should be able to again argue against you know the strongest short seller that they have on the other side of some business you're invested in uh you should be able to understand their points better than they do and of course argue back and and you know uh have a good rebuttal to their points so maintain intellectual honesty listen to those short sellers listen to other people but make sure you understand their viewpoints and before you sort of make an investment uh which is obviously betting against what they're doing make sure that you can argue against them better than they can lay down their case so that's the second one is maintain intellectual honesty and the third one uh was a little bit of a longer point but he basically said devote as much time as possible to studying the history of businesses and great business people and uh that again goes back to something lee liu mentioned in terms of how he operates perhaps a little differently than other investors he doesn't spend his time focused on short-term news and daily fluctuations in stocks or anything like that he simply tries to understand as many businesses as possible uh and he really was talking about here understanding the history of businesses and how different companies got to where they are today or why different companies no longer exist today and also great business people it helps you uh turn over a lot of stones understand how businesses work what makes a good company and a bad company and a good investment and a bad investment and the more sort of runs you can have on the board in terms of understanding how those different companies have operated in the past that will really help you uh inform decisions that you'll have to make as an investor moving forward so there have it that is my summary of the recent interview that lee liu did with bruce greenwald uh it's really great to hear from lilu every now and again we don't get exposed to interviews from him anywhere near as often as i would like to so great to see it when these things do come out i learned a lot and it's great to see how much i can actually relate to a lot of the things that lilu was saying and uh trying to tie that back to my own investing trinity which was fantastic now lilu did also spend a little bit of time talking about some of his philanthropic endeavors towards the end of that interview as well so i also highly recommend going and checking that out but that's it for me today i
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