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엔비디아 Q2 실적은 매출 67억달러로 선제 발표 기대치에 부합했으나, Q3 가이던스 59억달러는 월가 기대 69억달러를 10억달러 하회하는 충격적 수준이라고 평가. 게이밍 매출 급감(20억달러)과 암호화폐 채굴 수요 소멸이 원인이며, 데이터센터(38억달러)가 방어. 매출총이익 급감, 영업이익 약 5억달러로 사실상 손익분기 수준. 장기 부정적 전망이나 단기 기술적 반등(140~150달러 구간) 매매는 가능하다고 봄.
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nvidia corporation ticker symbol nvda this is on the heels of the company reporting their q2 earnings yesterday's my apologies i didn't get out videos yesterday we'll be getting to all those companies over the next couple of days we'll start with nvidia as they came out with their earnings as we know nvidia just a few weeks ago actually pre-announced their earnings so we actually had a general idea where this company was going to come in in terms of their revenue in terms of their profits we knew it was just going to be a complete disaster especially on that gaming side we also got q3 outlook we'll talk about that as well talk about some of the analysts reaction to these earnings and this guidance we'll take a look at some of the updated analyst estimates in terms of revenue estimates and earnings estimates for nvidia over the next couple of quarters we'll dive into the numbers we'll take a look at the revenues the profits we'll see how so bad this is really really really bad we're not going to sugarcoat it this is really bad from a financial perspective and then we'll talk about this from a technical perspective because there's kind of a divergence i think a little bit when it comes to those two things now over the last year stocks down 18 which is really not that bad but year-to-date really under underperformed down over 41 those q2 earnings came out 6.7 billion dollars again this was mainly pre-announced we already knew these numbers in line with the estimates that were brought in tremendously now we got q3 outlook and this is where we're starting to see the problems and really a lot of the cracks in nvidia's in business start to materialize they're expecting revenue in the upcoming quarter to be just 5.9 billion dollars folks wall street was expecting 6.9 billion dollars so they're guiding 1 billion underneath where wall street was expecting for q3 that is an absolute like intel like complete and utter disaster now in terms of the analyst community out there and people that are kind of projecting forward with nvidia i think the consensus right now with nvidia is that look the demand has really fallen off a cliff when it comes to the gaming chips when it comes to actually using them to actual game but also using them to mine cryptocurrency as well as we know those big asic miners and people things people were building to mine cryptocurrencies well a lot of those have already been built and so a lot of the demand is starting to flush out of the system from both a gaming perspective and a crypto mining perspective and we see here boy on those gaming revenues just two billion dollars in the most recent quarter just a quarter ago we're not even talking about last year just a quarter ago they were at 3.6 billion dollars a year ago you were over three billion dollars we haven't been under three billion dollars since q1 of 2022 and we haven't been around two billion dollars in basically two years over nvidia on that gaming side now luckily for nvidia data center holding up quite nicely 3.8 billion dollars worth of revenue there 3.75 in the previous quarter in the year ago period you were at 2.3 so as long as nvidia can maintain that data center growth this stock should hold up somewhat well but again the analyst community is kind of lining up and basically saying that they're not expecting a v-shape recovery coming with nvidia what a v-shape recovery would be is essentially taking these gaming revenues and in a quarter of two re-accelerating back to three and a half maybe close to four billion dollars worth of revenue and then maybe the data center continue the kind of explosive growth i think what analysts are anticipating is a very much flattening of the growth rate when it comes to nvidia we certainly got estimates when it comes to that upcoming quarter analysts still haven't brought in their estimates enough with nvidia i talked about q3 we're expecting 5.9 billion dollars from nvidia that's out of nvidia's mouth you see here on wall street the low end estimate was actually right at 5.9 and the high end estimate was over 8 billion obviously nvidia not going to come anywhere close to that this midpoint guidance is going to have to come down tremendously over the next couple of weeks and months and so what does that do okay first of all you're looking at negative growth at nvidia for the upcoming quarter we're anticipating negative growth for the subsequent two quarters but folks wall street hasn't brought these expectations down either as well q4 is not going to come in at 6.8 billion q1 of next year which is actually fiscal 24 year for nvidia it's a little confusing i don't know why i've got an automatic refresh on this page but look q1 is not going to be 7.4 billion and i think there's going to be a lot of people questioning is nvidia going to be able to re-accelerate this would essentially be q2 of next year are they going to be able to re-accelerate to 17 growth and then look at where wall street has this company growing in the back half of next year 30 growth rate for nvidia i think that that is not gonna happen with nvidia all of these estimates are gonna have to be reigned in over at nvidia now let's take a look at the financials we have that disastrous 6.7 billion dollars worth of revenue talked about how that was up fractionally year over year by about three percent it was in line with estimates but again those estimates had been rained in so much after this company kind of uh pre-announced their earnings that it's a little bit misleading these are way underneath expectations for nvidia now cost of revenue skyrocketed look at this your revenue went from just 6.5 billion up to this 6.7 billion look at your total cost of revenue went from 2.3 all the way up to 3.7 i dug into the commentary a little bit obviously with the weakening of demand that they're seeing with their gaming chips they've had to pay some kind of penalties to a lot of their suppliers like tsm where they have guaranteed kind of slots to manufacture well they've had to pull those off the table they have to pay some early penalties they've had to write down inventory it's just a disaster look what that did your gross profit so despite marginally increasing the revenues look at your gross profit went from 4.2 all the way down to 2.9 this is a disaster operating expenses went from 1.2 up to 1.8 don't got a problem with that this company in order to re look in order to re-accelerate towards the back half of next year to a 30 grower again a little bit easier comps all of these revenue numbers are going to be a little easier to jump over if you're nvidia but you still got to invest in this business so i don't mind the r d span and look this company is still profitable but it's just marginally now look at your total operating expenses they went from one point we'll call that 1.8 billion last year to up to 2.4 billion you take 2.9 billion you minus off 2.4 billion and you get just 500 million dollars worth of operating income in the quarter and folks this is probably what it's gonna be for the next 12 months over at nvidia you went from 2.4 billion worth of income from operations all the way down to 500 million this is basically a break even business from an operating perspective and look if this company had a 100 billion or a 200 billion valuation probably wouldn't necessarily be a problem i want to remind you this company has a 400 431 billion dollar valuation it's core business these gaming chips demand for those have completely fallen off the table our gross margins are shrinking our income from operations shrinking there is no company on the planet that deserves a 400 billion dollar valuation with declining revenues and shrinking margins and shrinking operating income so you just have to judge that for what you will when it comes to nvidia now this can be create a great buying opportunity if you believe this company can re-accelerate its revenue growth towards the back half of next year and into next well look over the next 12 months you probably want to accumulate this stock but so much risk if they don't re-accelerate these revenues re-accelerate the gross profits this company is i mean we're talking about overvalued to a degree that it's hard to see in the market certainly some people would argue this with amazon maybe even like a tesla but even those companies particularly tesla has not seen this type of revenue contraction and gross margin contraction in its company's business now there is some margin of safety when it comes to nvidia when it comes to their balance sheet they've got plenty of cash over 17 billion dollars in cash this includes the fact that they had to pay that breakup fee this company was trying to acquire arm holdings company which would have completely tran we'd have to be having a completely different conversation with this company if they were able to complete that acquisition that was like a 50 billion dollar valuation business that they were trying to buy well they had to pay an overall like a 1.3 1.5 billion dollar breakup fee that's where some of this cash went we have inventory stacking up not as bad as i thought but boy you went from 2.6 billion up to about 3.9 billion dollars worth of inventory they're having to write down the value of that inventory as the pricing on their gpus in particularly shrinking very quickly in the marketplace now company does have about 9.7 billion worth of long-term debt total liabilities coming in at 19.6 so the company has over 17 billion dollars in cash another 5 billion in receivables even if you write down this inventory quite a bit you're at 2.5 3 billion dollars worth of inventory you've got plenty plenty of leeway with this company this company could run from a break-even operating perspective or just kind of a marginal gain or maybe even lose money from an operating perspective it wouldn't be a problem from a balance sheet and a financing perspective very financially healthy company now from a cash flow perspective because look sometimes when a company's gross margins and their net income we see here for the net income over the last three months it shriveled to 656 million folks last year we were at 2.4 billion dollars that is completely falling off the map well sometimes it paints a different picture when you get to cash flow well unfortunately with nvidia it doesn't you come down here to net cash provided by their operating activities it went from 2.7 all the way down to 1.3 billion dollars now one thing that nvidia is doing that i actually like is they're actually buying back the stock 3.3 billion dollars worth of shares they've bought back 5.3 billion dollars in nvidia if they have confidence that they're going to be able to re-accelerate this revenue growth re-accelerate this earnings growth towards the back half of next year into 2024 again i think over the next 12 months and and i'm basically agreeing with analysts is there's not going to be a v-shape recovery sure if crypto triples in value over the next six months that's something that could be a catalyst to spur this v-shape recovery i don't think that's gonna happen so you are starting to look out basically 12 months into the future at least it might be as long as 18 months maybe even 24 months until nvidia starts producing positive earnings and especially earnings growth that warrants a stock that has a ford p i mean it's not even close this forward p is probably closer to a hundred now on this one as these earnings these forward earnings estimates are going to have to come in big time on all the subsequent quarters you've got a price to sales ratio on this one that is just astronomical this stock has to re-accelerate its revenue and if nvidia believes that and if investor if you out there watching this video believe that well you should be buying the stock and that's what nvidia is doing they're buying back the shares again to the tune of 3.3 billion they burned through about 874 million dollars again on depreciating operating activity cash and the fact that you bought back those shares to the tune of 3.3 billion that's where most of this cash burned happened at this company again you had that breakup fee occur in the first quarter as well for nvidia now from a technical perspective those of you that tune into our friday show every friday we recap all the major news from all the fang stocks including nvidia and you'll know i've had this green box marked out i mean this is for months okay i mean we're talking months in video basically all year we've been looking between 115 up to about 160 pretty large range on this one and anytime it's popped into this green box it has been a buying opportunity again that is from a technical perspective and just me personally i'm going to just speak to you as myself looking at this stock i do not buy stocks that have negative earnings growth projected this far out into the future and again these analyst estimates are not accurate okay we're just getting these news now from nvidia so you're talking about two weeks three weeks four weeks we'll want to come back and revisit this and we'll do this on our friday show where we have we touch on nvidia and i have time stamps in those videos so if you just want to come check on nvidia you're more than welcome to do and it'll be just five or six minutes of your time in a week or so we'll come and revisit where wall street has this one going into the future but me personally i don't buy stocks that have that kind of negative earnings growth projected from a long-term perspective there's just too much uncertainty and if they don't re-accelerate those revenues well the multiple has to come way way down okay we've seen that with meta we've seen that with intel we've seen that with a number of different stocks some in nvidia's industry some not where if you all of a sudden don't grow anymore the multiple has to contract and i'm gonna wait until nvidia proves that it could re-accelerate that multiple at some time but this thing should i think from a technical perspective trade pretty predictably meaning you can make money in the shorter term so from the longer term investors look you've got your own outlook on this one i can't really help you there it's not a stock i would buy for the long term right this second maybe 12 months from now maybe six months from now maybe 24 months from now we start having the conversation we're buying a 400 billion dollar company with declining revenues declining gross profits declining cash flows for the long term look i can't make that argument now but i can make the argument when we pull back i think we're going to go sideways with this stock that's probably the best case scenario you've got an area down here at about 145 150 where this stock from a technical perspective should bounce i in look i have a long-term portfolio and then i have a tactical trading portfolio and both i have a lot of success in but from the tactical side i would buy this one in the 140-150 i would have a stop-loss very close underneath that probably like at 140 i'd probably risk five to ten dollars with the upside that you bounce from 140 back up into the 170s 180s you set a trailing stop you start getting out of this one as it gets to the middle of this range maybe you push it all the way to the top up to about 190 200 but you should meet some resistance here i think you sideways consolidate on nvidia i think initially that sideways consolidation might be between 150 and 190 if things really get hairy over at nvidia and the markets in general i think the bottom of this range could be 115 up to this 145 that's why i'd have these stop losses on these shorter term trades right now nvidia is just a short-term stock in my perspective i do not i repeat and this is just my own investing philosophy i don't invest in companies that have negative earnings growth and that have a massive i mean we're talking about a massive price to earnings on this one this is not even close to being accurate and a massive price to sales it just doesn't work out could it work out with nvidia yes maybe but the track record with these types of stocks is they just continue to head down until they can prove to investors that they can turn it around and we start to see positive momentum that is when that is when we will recommend nvidia from a longer term perspective but i think i agree with the analyst you're not going to see a v-shape recovery you're going to be able to very well telegraph the demand coming back for the different business segments that nvidia has and so you're going to be able to jump on that long train at some point i think it's too risky at the current time but there's certainly some ways to make money on this one from a technical bounce and trading perspective hopefully you guys enjoyed today's video but we'll have salesforce snowflake and a few others heading into the end of the week and of course we'll join you tomorrow for a fangstack recap show where we'll talk about nvidia more in depth hopefully you guys have a great day out there good luck with your investments
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