저자: Kevin · 외국인
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부동산 시장은 금리 인상으로 초과수요가 소진되는 단계이며, 매물 증가·거래가 하락이 2022년 3분기~4분기 고통점으로 예상된다. 주식도 바닥에 가깝다고 보며, 금리 피벗 시 부동산 매수 기회가 온다는 입장. 현재는 자본을 확보하고 매수 준비를 하라고 권고한다.
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hey everyone me kevin here so i wanted to talk a little bit about housing because this is the first time in the last four years that we have seen a year-over-year increase of more than one percent of active listings with price drops it's an inflection point and this is sort of uh something that we start looking at and we say okay well we've got an inflection point to the upside and price drops okay we're starting to see that that doesn't mean it's going to sustain but it's just one of those early signs it's like okay that's something to pay attention to but see real estate in my opinion is one of those things that in order to really understand what's going on in the market you've got to look beyond larger statistics you can use those as clues to either corroborate what you're seeing or to be sort of a weapon that says no no no whatever what i'm seeing or feeling is wrong but real estate it's always local uh however national impacts like of interest rates going up you know three percent in in a matter of four months uh will be felt in every local market but here are some of the things that i'm seeing now so back in january i made a prediction that we would see excess demand in housing evaporate but that that would take time that would probably take until the end of 2022 because you go through a cycle first you get interest rates that go up in january and february and then what happens is you still have people who have their rates locked in who are closing deals in february and march but then the people who are looking for new homes to buy in february and march who would actually be closing in april and may are people who say well you know i i have a higher interest rate to deal with now and rates are going up i may as well get in now before rates go up even further so you have this excess excitement to get in quickly right that's beginning to wane first of all the people who had low rates locked in from you know december and early january that's over now the people who are uh hunting in in march and april who are excited about okay let's get in before the housing market uh uh sees rates go up even further they're finding places and so now we're at this potential tipping point where the next phase of the housing market would be well if more sellers decide or even a consistent amount of sellers as in the same amount of sellers we have been seeing decide to put their properties on the market even if we stay stable if we end up with fewer buyers now who are willing to get mortgages at uh at six percent uh then you have a problem because then you start building inventory that is to come so i expect inventory to actually start building in late may june and july see a lot of people who are you know comment experts the comment karen they leave comments saying oh i don't know what you're talking about kevin the housing market's not slowing there's still no homes right because it happens in phases so far phase one is correct the people who had low rates don't exist anymore phase two the people who were fearful of higher rates are disappearing they're the ones who are like oh no i better get in fast because rates are going to keep going up they're disappearing so now we're at the next phase of people who are supposed to come in with new mortgages and what happens when you look at those statistics oh no mortgage home applications down 75 yeah right exactly so your your the excess demand is being absorbed the new buyer pool will be shrinking and the next phase after we start seeing that potential stagnating of inventory is this where you start seeing increases in prices that i'm sorry well i'm sorry increases of price it drops rather right you start seeing that here may june at the same time as you see that stagnating of inventory then what happens and this is this is the problem this generally doesn't happen until probably i would say you know if you start getting the increase in price drops now you're not actually going to see lower selling prices for probably two to three months uh because it takes time right to actually transact real estate you negotiate a lower deal you negotiate more credits because buyers have more power deals close for lower prices probably start seeing lower prices like june july august then all of a sudden when you actually get media starting to report oh my gosh home prices have started ticking down even if it's just home prices are down two percent month over month all of a sudden people go oh no we're at the turn and then you get fear of sellers who oh we're at the turn not necessarily people who are living in their homes who are qualified it's not like people have to sell their homes right but all it takes is those investors those institutional investors who say hey i got a vacancy you know what rather than release this i'ma sell it you know may as well take my attendees now that's when you get higher inventory lower buyers more accelerated price drops and this is why i believe that q3 q4 which is really your december to like you know end of july time frame uh yeah more like probably august september through december maybe even january of next year that's going to be your potential point of pain if inflation remains relatively high and the fed has to continue with sort of aggressive and hawkish tone then that pain is likely to extend into 2023 if the fed u-turns that's a signal for buying opportunity in real estate and this is what we're prepping for right now and this is why i always talk about like hey like seriously might consider checking out learning everything that i know and you know 13 years of knowledge of being not only a real estate agent uh licensed contractor licensed lender real estate broker uh property manager everything i know which you can't learn in school get a download for link down below that's really loud use that coupon code before may 16th because the price will have its largest price increase we've got some big announcements coming up uh towards the beginning of june and uh in the middle of june and so the prices have to go up before that so take advantage of that fair heads up here but you know what what's fascinating to me is the amount of folks in in you know the the common you know geniuses who believe oh no the real estate market can't fall yes it can and it will and a lot of folks say well my market's still getting multiple offers yeah so is mine i'm still selling properties and with the exception of this property i put on the market on thursday every other property that i've listed even as recently as two weeks ago it's been multiple offers over list but i'm already seeing the change and this is where when we say real estate is hyper local what we're really saying is real estate is a people business you have to understand what the people involved in the business are feeling let me give you an example i put a property on the market the first week of february this was after i sold stocks because i thought things were going to get worse they ended up getting about 20 worth worse had i not sold stocks i would have been down an additional six million dollars rather than being down 600 an additional six million dollars right now i'm like with with some of the options trades i've made uh some that have been caught well some that have gone terribly wrong uh i'm probably about saved six million maybe up a few hundred thousand dollars it's been a very nasty last few weeks from all of my low buys my tesla buys are great they've been up but some other ones have gone down i took some attendees on some things like end phase but i didn't on things like trade desk and i got a little nipped on a firm right which i'm completely out of and disney's totally nipped me like socks so like again i'm grateful i have not lost an additional six and that's a big deal uh and i'm grateful we're like at a par place because i do feel that stocks are relatively near like i feel like this is the recession right this is the stock recession uh we are in my opinion and i've said this many times relatively near low yeah can we still extend can we still get more margin liquidations absolutely that's going to drive us temporary lower but i'm not terribly worried about uh that and and i don't know i don't profess to be able to uh predict the stock market as well as real estate i think real estate is a lot easier because it's slower moving and so you can have more patience and time you know you take an extra two weeks in the stock market it's moved 10 sometimes right real estate's a little slower than that but again the folks right now going oh we'll still get you multiple offers if you're not seeing the difference of when i first started selling real estate february week one where when i hold an open house i've all of a sudden got a line of 50 couples like we used to do covet disclosures we don't actually do them anymore kova disclosures and i would have i would look through my disclosures on my ipads and be like oh my gosh i have 50 signatures for 50 like couples and families walking through my properties not individuals like 50 forms you know one per family and i'm like this is insane this is crazy like this is what the peak of the market feels like the last place i put on the market dude i got one phone call and i'm like what the place i put on the market before that i had four showings and i under listed that one with four showings it still ended up selling for over list but still like the delta is so clear it's literally playing out the way that we've been expecting with the real estate market so far it's been playing out exp as expected with the stock market with the exception of about 10 points in the qqq because i really thought that 318 level was bottom we're about 310 right now so i'm a little off with the target on that bottom but uh but but that's okay you know if if we go to like 280 then then obviously like i screwed up uh but uh if we saw something like 280 personally i i really think it'd still be a buying off because it probably come as a sharp decline at market open on margin calls i think we had a terrible week of margin calls this week uh and uh so so just be careful be very very careful if you're on margin like get the hell out of margin anyway sorry i don't mean to turn this real estate video into stock video just saying like so far we have expected volatility we have expected what has been happening now even though i've been expecting these things it doesn't again make us perfect with every single move we make but we do our best right if we can save a lot of losses and prevent a lot of losses and we can make gains where we can take them anyway hopefully that's helpful now what does that mean for my target for acquiring again it depends on inflation if we actually start seeing inflation peak certainly if it hasn't already peaked in march then within the next six months is as long as we see that peak bottom real estate wouldn't surprise me if it's somewhere between q4 and q2 of next year inflation stays hot real estate's gonna get whacked even more so for me the plan is raise capital now for real estate don't buy now prepare now speaking of which if you want to learn more about big plans coming make sure to drop your email and whether you're an accredited investor or not at metkevin.com join met kevin.com join especially if you want to be one of those people who's able to shop for real estate at the bottom of the market not like the stupid reits that are buying at the top of the market okay anyway thanks for watching folks good luck out there bye
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