저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
이커머스 전반이 둔화되고 있다는 판단. Etsy 실적 가이던스 부진(매출 540~590M 달러, 하향)과 Wayfair·Shopify·Amazon 약세를 근거로 제시. 소비 둔화, 해외 거래 비중 악화, 판매자 가격 인상 여력 부족을 지적하며, 이커머스 주식은 추가 하락 가능성이 있으나 저평가 구간에서 기회가 될 수 있다는 입장. Cathie Wood식 재고 증가·가격 하락 가능성도 언급.
다듬은 글
so in e-commerce etsy missed yesterday in our course member live stream we talked about hey if etsy misses there might be an opportunity to buy it and kind of leaning towards the belief that all ecommerce is going to miss because since january i've been making the argument that we want to be out of consumer discretionaries and get away from people spending money online because the indicators we're seeing whether it's through web traffic google search trends freight information shipping information or just that e-commerce is slowing down and so what have we seen we've seen amazon miss we saw especially with weak guidance we saw weak guidance from etsy we saw a wayfarer down 10 shopify down 16 you know etsy we'll take a look at what etsy's doing right now here now that the market's open etsy uh down 17 right now it's about to be under 90 i mean it is it is straight selling off right now holy moly look at that 17 on etsy let's go to wayfair just to get the updated number 16 now amazon now down 2.7 and shopify down 15 roughly the same as what we had during pre-market this is a sign that the market is like oh crap we should have gotten out of e-commerce in january let's get out of e-commerce now now i actually think there could potentially become an opportunity when we get low estimates for q2 maybe even q3 and at some point there's an opportunity to really get into these ecom stocks super cheap see etsy expects revenue in the range of about 540 million to 590.
and this is uh almost 11 to the midpoint below the 628 million dollar target etsy only saw its online sales raise 5.2 percent from a year ago and the ceo mentions quote we're emerging from an unprecedented time and with that etsy has unprecedented growth in a world of so many more choices our guidance implies somewhere between a decline of low to high single digits in the hc etsy marketplace year over year in other words they're forecasting negative growth it's like that's scary like nobody wants negative growth in e-com uh and so obviously one of the things that's most interesting in my opinion is anytime you're studying in a sector that's going down what i always recommend is take even just one company you don't even necessarily have to go with all of them take one company that you really really understand like etsy for example take that one company and go through the earnings call because in the earnings call you're going to get a sense of what the complaints are what the issues are uh what how you know sort of the feeling of the executives and the boards uh board members now sometimes people wonder they're like okay fine then kevin where do you get the transcripts because i really don't want to listen to it you know you'd rather hit like command f and go through them personally i like using seeking alpha i mean oftentimes i'll use the bloomberg terminal but you could just use seeking alpha and i'll show you just as an example how you could go through this so i have not gone through the etsy one yet but i'll show you just as an example of what we could do so the first thing that we could do is we want to look at potentially pricing or or pricing power right so let's see what we have uh we let's see here uh this has to do with stock based compensation okay if the pandemic has taught us anything it has really strengthened our conviction even more in the enormous size of the price that we believe we have at etsy and just uh dimensionalizes uh if for a second okay that is like a very weird second uh sentence that they've got over here usually what i'm looking for is like pricing power in terms of like their the executive's ability to raise pricing see there you go look at that when we announce the price increase and keep in mind this has actually led to a boycott of etsy over the last few months by a lot of etsy sellers so you know these are headwinds but anyway when we announced the price increase the price increases takes up our take rate so it takes up our ability to continue to spend deeper in the roi curve without compromising roi thresholds okay this is like the cfo likes really big words what he's saying is hey when we increase prices we can invest more into our marketing budget which remember i actually like what etsy does when it comes to their marketing they do this special thing where they'll advertise not etsy.com they'll advertise one of their stores which which are other third-party sellers and if etsy converts a lead to that store then they split the marketing costs with that store so it's really like no risk for the store and it's smart spending for etsy because now they're spending and then actually supporting some of their businesses at the same time rather than just themselves so i think that's great and that's what they talk about here so okay interesting talk briefly about the price increases here in mar okay let's see if we could learn something about the consumer here so let's go to consume all right uh i personally couldn't be more relieved to see it it also means that in the near term here we go they're talking about relieved about all the covet spending that they had right it also means that in the near term okay here we go we'll have to fight harder and invest more and continue to earn and grow etsy share of the wallet with consumers which is the only way that our much larger base of sellers can keep growing their sales we're up for that fight okay kind of interesting if you're talking about having to like fight for share of wallet because that's a way of implying that competition is getting a little bit more difficult right obviously you're going to have issues for ukrainian sellers i've actually brought 3d printed stuff from ukraine before and i think to myself i probably couldn't do that anymore from those stores although then again i haven't tried because i was really into buying stuff on etsy during the pandemic and i kind of lately haven't been which you know oftentimes like you're your own best piece of research you know you're your own best researcher which i think is quite interesting so uh people continue okay so here this this is interesting to me because now we start learning about the consumer take a look at this we're emerging from an unprecedented time this year is going to be unpredictable for us okay well that's also bad because right now you're signaling that hey uh we might have no idea what's to come well and that there are many moving parts including both tailwinds and headwinds and then this is interesting i don't like this people continue to be nervous about global events and the economy and we'll have to fight harder for that consumer's time and money so i'd like to see you know other than just like overall sale metrics what are what do they see because see looking at the last quarter is lagging but when the executives are like yeah we're gonna have to fight harder yeah we're gonna have to try harder and i'm not actually getting like concrete info it makes me think they're going to miss again next quarter as you outread between the lines remember these are sales pitches and when a sales pitch is weak it's a red flag see like end phases sales pitch last quarter was like we don't have supply chain issues in asics we're going to kill it that's basically the tone of the ceo last quarter and i'm like i you know i looked at the morning of the end phase earnings call we went through it with uh course members uh in the old earnings called the morning of their their second quarter earnings uh or well we went through their fourth quarter earnings uh right before their first quarter earnings which come out in the second quarter uh and we're like look look how like bullish these things are this is this is like a good leading indicator for how it might perform or the stock might perform after earnings or how their earnings might go and that's that's exactly what happened uh the stock ran from like 150 bucks to 188 bucks that's great okay so uh the deceleration we started to experience in feb oh okay this is this is terrible this is terrible this is the opposite of what you have seen in the travel sector this is the opposite of what you've seen in the banking sector with arguments that consumers are spending more look at what they're saying the deceleration in sales we experienced in february listen to this line folks worsened throughout the quarter well crap you know if you're on if you're like declining throughout the quarter like this then where are we now like if we're here now you know what's ahead of us that you know like even more of a decline so uh oops uh yeah i mean that's that's quite crazy so uh then you've got from a graphic geographic perspective 45 of etsy's marketplace in the first quarter was from transactions where either uh the buyer or seller were outside the united states see that's actually terrible it and so let's let's touch on for a second why that's terrible well it's terrible because what happens what happens when you have uh when you have a situation where the global economy is slowing down everything's slowing down in uh europe we just talked about that at the beginning of this livestream things are slowing down in china no doubt you can't get etsy sales in ukraine because you got a freaking disaster going on in ukraine so of course uh this is a terrible thing for for etsy i have been enthused by etsy's valuation coming down but i said i would wait to earnings and i'm telling you so far this reiterates to me that there's pain coming to e-commerce and it is not stopping anytime soon uh you know look at this year over year they had strength because of germany dude that's bad i do not want to hang my hat on germany right now we just saw that massive manufacturing myth we just uh heard what the what the uh you know with the higher levels over at the ecb are saying this is a disaster so the etsy marketplace category performance was marked by strength and paper and party supplies for in-person events how interesting look at that people are actually spending more money on the etsy marketplace right now for in-person events and stuff consistent with reopening trends i mean look i hate to say it but if we're worried like if we're focused on reopening trends people are going to spend more of their money in stores because they're traveling right not so great on the consumer let's see what else they say about the consumer despite there being more options for consumers time and money okay great uh let's see here the strength of the second quarter of 2021 was driven by the tailwinds of economic stimulus which hit consumer bank accounts in april of 2021.
contrast that with uh with where we are now mobility indices are approaching 2019 levels and pent-up demand may drive this even higher meaning the possibility of more movement and travel and less time for home shopping dude this is a horrible earnings call like i mean like i'm all for like buying companies when they go down but i'm not just going to buy a stock that's down you know 17 because i'm like oh yeah yolo by the dip this is a terrible earnings call that's telling me things are just getting even worse the reopening and macro uh headwinds and experiences as a company and of course are being felt in households and wallets of independent sellers yeah okay uh what else do we have here so here's a question from an analyst you're uh to what extent are you in a relatively favorable position compared to your e-commerce peers like you know shopify or amazon or whatever great question uh so they say to be clear etsy sellers set their own prices not something etsy is involved in uh let's see here obviously it's tougher for them to compete against something that's mass-produced you know etsy's a little bit more custom we know that already that's why etsy's interesting in the first place and let's see here if you look at a basket of goods analysis not chosen wait etsy sellers set their own prices it's not something etsy's involved in we have said in the past and it continues to be true that our sellers have so far on average if you look at a basket of of goods uh not chosen to take their prices up by much at all okay that's actually a bad sign and far less than what you're reading in terms of consumer inflation so in other words if you want to find less inflation go to etsy because people aren't raising their prices well golly what is that signal to you folks that's it's a very simple thing there's one thing that signals to you when sellers don't raise prices when sellers don't raise prices what does it mean you should be telling yourself this right now lack of pricing power right like that's a bad thing like like look i've only been going through this earnings call for five minutes and i'm devastated like this is bad i honestly don't even want to read any more of the etsy earnings call i i got i got enough of the etsy earnings called like i i got it your sellers don't have pricing power y'all uh are on a declining trend of e-commerce sales which makes me even less interested in remotely considering uh the other uh you know online uh retailers whether that's wayfair or or shopify i'm curious though because of i kind of want to know like hey well like does wayfair for example have pricing power is this just etsy my suspicion is usually what you see is these sorts of issues are industry-wide they're usually not uh sort of just relegated to one company it's usually an industry trend this is why you see like on cnbc all the time that institutional oh we're rotating here now we're rotating here now or whatever right let's try it let's let's here i got uh wayfair right here let's do it together really quickly all right but just in the last two months since a lot is transparent and transpired and rising prices across the retail universe at troubling geopolitical events our mass customers in the us and internationally appear understandably more focused on where they are spending their money okay this is a horrible thing our customers appear more focused in where they're spending their money okay so in other words our customers ate shopping at wayfair it's a terrible thing uh let's see here while raising well rising energy prices are headwinds to shipping and fulfillment some of the biggest pain from last year uh pains are dis dissipating okay well that's actually a good thing i like i like to hear that some of so that's kind of like some of the supply chains and logistic problems are getting better that's a good thing for the broader economy doesn't necessarily mean it's better for e-commerce right so let's see here price points okay doing so cut the distance okay they're trying to i mean they've always been talking about adding more fulfillment centers and therefore lowering the distance that they have to ship stuff to lower costs okay we see customers respond okay interesting here we go so we are already benefiting just as availability was getting better now availability is getting better at a very fast rate this is very cathy woodyan actually right here availability going up at a faster rate means inventories are going up right this is your kathy woodian inventories and it's something to pay attention to because that can actually lead to prices coming down if you have too high of inventories uh okay so let's see what happens is our competitive retailers what they've done is they've brought they've bought their inventory for the next few months already and they bought it at a certain price and they've locked in that price oh my gosh they're now low to discount oh no oh no they're now low to discount because it could put them in a bad position on retail relative to cost while on our platform okay this is a very confusing line here the suppliers sitting there price ever setting their price every day and that price is driving retail wait that i don't know if that is just a bad transcription but it is a horrible sentence but i i think roughly what they're saying here is you know like you don't necessarily want to drop the price because that signals bad things for the consumers but basically you might have to drop prices and so look at that right after they talk about having excess inventory look at what they talk about if you have extra inventory you just want to turn it into cash or focus uh or cash or less focused or be less focused on the profit margins this transcription is horrible right so basically let me transfer let me re-transcribe this transcription more inventory focus less on margin just get the cash that's essentially what he's saying here or her whatever i have no idea who it is they uh so uh okay also not good so what else do we have here as well as an argument to enrich and ensure accurate and complete product intuition this enables us to respond to customer needs uh doing so can significantly okay well that was the distance thing we already read that we read this section here okay it's just the opening price point which is where these folks do their business at home we have a logistics network that's optimized for deliveries we can build okay whatever y'all just yapping over here we're not oh look at this look at this aha wow look at the word they're using this is terrible this is actually like all just like bad news so far like it's no surprise to me actually now that the qqq is selling down because it's like sorry this is just bad news uh look at this okay if we think uh okay right here right here this part now that said if there is a transitory change in the piece of a cost structure that we manage uh and we think that's going to abate soon we're not necessarily going to pass it through and raise the price of the item and then drop it little by little thereafter okay what what does this mean folks it's literally the same thing as the etsy call they're basically like wayfair is literally telling us inflation is transitory so we won't raise prices because we can't this is terrible uh i laugh because it's painful uh it's it's quite painful anyway i was gonna put that there we go yeah no this is this is these are bad these are bad earnings calls these are not good not happy here so uh quite bad uh okay wow so consumers are sucking and if like those little samples there you can see it doesn't take a lot of time those little samples there are just an example of disaster so sorry consumers things are not good but it is you know when we start seeing this sort of ecommerce uh pain it is a little bit of an indicator that maybe we will start seeing the kathy woody in price drops maybe she's right we'll see we shall see
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