저자: Kevin · 외국인
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이란 핵 사찰 중단과 IAEA 우려, 호르무즈 해협 폐쇄 장기화 가능성을 짚으며 협상이 지연되고 있다고 봄. 미국 ADP 고용이 예상치(120k)를 웃돌아 경기 호조를 강조하고, TS Lombard의 이익 모멘텀 상향 시나리오를 인용. 반면 유동성 악화 신호(세레브라스 IPO 급락, 비트코인·STRC 디커플링, 구글 800억~850억 달러 유상증자 물량 부담)와 엔비디아 227선 이탈, 소비주 약세를 경고. 하드웨어 선호, 소프트웨어 공매도 재가속 언급.
다듬은 글
Okay, we are now closer to a nuclear conflict with Iran and a really strong economy on the verge of making even more all-time highs, despite the fact that today the short sellers are reloading. Yeah, let's talk about this. Let's break all of this down. Let's talk about what TS Lombard actually thinks is a tail risk for the market.
Important to pay attention to, especially since they are usually bullish. And of course, let's get started with his nuclear claim here because if Kevin, you're going to start talking about nuclear stuff, you better come prepared to explain this rapidly. So, basically there was an IAEA report. That's the International Atomic Energy Agency, okay?
They're the agency that used to go inspect the nuclear facilities in Iran. In fact, here is the chart of Iranian inspections. How many inspections they conducted every single year going back to 2012. You could see it roughly halved in 2025. And you could probably guess why. We bombed the crap out of three Iranian nuclear facilities about halfway through the year.
So, what a surprise. Inspections stopped after that. Now, Bibi Netanyahu did have an interview with this fantastic reporter this morning, Sara Eisen. Anyway, uh and I have to say, I you know, I'm not trying to bag on Bibi, but he was wrong about what he said. He said that the JCPOA gave Iran too much notice for weapons inspectors to actually inspect Iran.
But, if you actually study this, this oh, we have to give them 24 to 30 days notice that Bibi was complaining about, that was only for disputed nuclear sites. Otherwise, all known nuclear sites could be inspected within hours previously and were {quote} continuously monitored by the IAEA." Now, why does that matter?
It matters not because I'm trying to bag on Bibi, it's because I'm trying to make sure that you as a viewer of this channel can at least take this information and go look up the facts yourself. He's saying, "Oh, we had to give him 30-day notice and they would just move nuclear material." That's not what the IAEA agreed to them.
And today, the IAEA, through a leaked report, is really concerned about the fact that we can't inspect Iran's nuclear weapons program. In fact, they state here, "Before June 2025, and that 12-day war, we had Iran's nuclear material subject to weekly inspections, which could occur with as little as 2-hour notice." This new problem that now comes up is the fact that we don't have inspections.
And now we actually have nuclear dilemmas that we didn't previously have before. Number one, other countries wanting more nuclear weapons. And number two, that would be the rise in proliferation concerns. And number two, that we don't actually know where the highly enriched uranium is now. Now, Donald Trump says the nuclear dust was buried, and it's far beneath Natanz or Fordow or one of these Esfahan nuclear facilities.
Yet, on the other side of his mouth, Donald Trump is like, "Yeah, you know, regarding the nuclear dust, yeah, we you know, may- maybe the IAEA could oversee destroying it, or they could just give it to us in America, but we're not okay with them giving the dust to China or Russia." Okay, Donald, so is it buried and no human can get to it?
Or are the Iranians in possession of it and they're ready to hand it over to China or Russia? You can't have both here. So, this is a little bit problematic. And the issue with this is the IAEA claims that they are not involved in the most recent rounds of talks. That they were involved in but that the Trump administration does not have them involved now and the issue is what happens if we end up getting something that's not verifiable in regards to the nuclear weapons program and we end up getting a bad agreement.
This could end up extending this issue with Iran. After all, we just had the an Iran missile end up impacting the Kuwaiti International Airport. Terminal 1 was absolutely destroyed this morning, well, technically last night by an Iranian missile. Now, the Iranians are arguing that this was not actually their missile or drone attack.
This was actually a failure of a US Patriot missile that failed to intercept the Iranian missile and that's why the Terminal 1 in the Kuwaiti Airport was struck. Now, who knows, that could all be propaganda and marketing, but this is what that terminal looked like before and here is what the terminal looks like now.
Obviously, various different photos we've shown here. Point is, at the same time as we've got all of this happening, the economy is doing a totally different thing in America, which we'll touch on in just a moment, but let's finish some of this talk regarding Iran. So, it's worth noting that Iran does say that talks have not been cut off with the United States and that they're sending their latest draft response to the United States.
They believe that if this deal is accepted, there will be a four-stage mechanism as outlined in this memorandum of understanding and Iran is adamant that they will not allow aggression to continue in Lebanon, which obviously the Israeli move up towards Beirut in Lebanon is a big issue and the Israelis want to continue to defend themselves.
Now, talks are still ongoing. Apparently, you know, two or three days ago were like talks have been cut off. Donald Trump apparently on Monday called Bibi effing crazy on a phone call with him, but says that they still work well together. And Donald Trump now also thinks that there's a risk the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed through Labor Day.
Which that's what like early September Labor Day 2026, that would be well yeah, September 7th, 2026. I guess we'll have to have a Strait of Hormuz coupon code. No, we don't actually need that because right now we have coupon code Marvel over at meetkevin.com. Even though the stock market is so freaking red right now, if you actually look, Marvel still up another 4 and 1/2%.
We're freaking banking money on this puppy and we might have another fun stock to announce soon. So join us over at meetkevin.com and join the party. Just keep in mind there're three different kinds of stocks that are doing well right now. We'll talk about that more in a different video, but you just have to know where you're positioning.
Right now hardware is in vogue. Software is not. The shorts are reloading on software, right? We got to go from hardware. After the IPOs, that's probably when we see software. And then long long long term, that's probably when you see late sensitives like in the early 2030s. So keep that in mind when you're looking at building a long-term portfolio.
You know, if you're buying hardware now, depending on what you're buying, you know, you're buying some stocks that have already extended a lot. If you're buying software right now, you're buying in the hole or you're buying rate rate sensitives, you're buying in the hole with little hope in the near term.
So just always keep that in mind and that's just a PSA to everybody out there on the stock market. Now, this this talk about Labor Day is actually really interesting because it implies that Donald Trump is basically willing to keep dragging this war out in negotiations and he's not really rushing into a solution with Iran.
So we're not rushing into a solution with Iran probably because the stock market is supporting Donald Trump's delays. Basically at all-time highs. Why not delay? And then on the flip side, Donald Trump, because there's no negative impact, can be more aggressive on demanding either a resolution with the nuclear program, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without tolling, or obviously some form of resolution with Lebanon.
Now, this is interesting because it kind of suggests we still have work to do and there's still some flip-flopping going on by Donald Trump. Donald Trump has literally gone from disgracing the Ayatollah and calling him gay to now saying he respects him and he'd be open to meeting him. I I don't know.
Maybe Donald Trump is now pitching on the other side. I who knows? But the New York Post literally I I mean I I usually rewrite this stuff in my own words, but I just put this quote in here. So, New York Time This is the New York Post for you. Quote, "Trump was briefed by intelligence officials in March that the Ayatollah was probably gay with the president and other aides laughing out loud at the unconfirmed spy agency lead, which suggests he's had a long-term relationship with a childhood tutor." Okay.
Well, apparently Donald Trump now respects him and is willing to meet him. So, you're definitely seeing some softening on Trump here, which broadly is bullish, but I'm still concerned about how long the Hormuz Strait of Hormuz is going to be shut. Although, I I also think that markets are kind of getting over that.
We're really not seeing much movement in oil markets as a result of that or rate projections, which we'll talk about in a moment. You know, Brent still under 100 bucks, though it's a little above 95 now at about 98. Uh so, some softening here from Donald Trump suggesting maybe we are getting closer.
It's just taking longer to get there. I'm also just seeing now through the wire services US CENTCOM denies claim that damage to Kuwaiti airport was caused by a US missile interceptor. I mean, this is the propaganda on both sides. Uh now, uh BB uh Netanyahu of Israel continues to argue that Iran has been set back, 20 scientists are gone, Donald Trump is brilliant with his reverse blockade, but if we have to go back to war, that's up to Trump.
Israel is ready. That's fine, but I think as much as Israel might be ready, Donald Trump is not ready for rockets to keep going, and so cheers to Buzz Lightyear. Now, let's talk about what's actually going on economically and why we said at the same time that we're closer to this nuclear problem by the IAEA, we're actually economically doing fantastically.
And, uh, because I really want to take a sip of this coffee, I'll just put on screen like a 5-second intermission. And of course, it's the coupon code. Mhm. Ah, such a sexy photo. Okay, now, where were we? Ah, ADP, that's right. Our economy is booming. So, as we expected in the Alpha report, we expected because we've been tracking weekly data.
We always do this in the Alpha report. Every Tuesday morning we track the weekly data, and then Wednesday once a month we track the monthly data on ADP. This way we don't have to rely on government statistics. And the data that came out this morning was fantastic. Oh, another wire here. Iran state media says Iran targeted a US military ship hosting a controlling command center approaching Iranian territorial waters in the Gulf of Oman.
It's just Somebody had a good comment yesterday in the comments. Uh, they're like, they're love tapping each other. Okay. Here's the ADP report. Expectation was 120, and we got 122. Eight out of 10 super sectors showed gains last month, and hiring was more broad-based in May that we've seen in the last few years.
This is fantastic. A lot of people really dunked on the JOLTS data, saying we can't believe the government, which is fine, and why I like looking at the ADP data, though I suppose there's always the possibility that there's some, you know, internal corruption and insider trading going on. Who knows?
Uh that's always possible. But, uh you know, with a little bit of a grain of salt, this is pretty damn good. I have to say, this is fantastic. Uh it's actually pretty consistent with the weekly data we've been getting. If I divide that by roughly four, it's about 30k, which is roughly the average we've seen on a weekly basis.
So, this is pretty accurate. And you can see the the spread here. Large employers up 40,000, but also small employers up 49,000. You know, House Hack is probably somewhere in in the between these two over here, the 1 to 49 employees, just because we've got a lot of software devs. I mean, we're still in the high end at this 1 to 19.
But, uh you can see this combined sector right here is really killing it uh in terms of growth, out pacing even the large employers. So, while Uber just announced layoffs, and we know, you know, Meta uh has has announced layoffs, a lot of that is probably because of over hiring, and they had plenty of capital to go uh you know, hire folks and have them sit around.
But, this is actually pretty good in terms of report. Only mining down 3k and information down 9k. Everything else, business services, health, education, leisure leisure hospitality, everything else broadly up. Uh and annual pay increases still uh still moving with Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado over here leading, and Montana uh with about 5 and 1/2 to 6% in wage gains.
California at about 4.4, Florida at about 4.3, New York at about 4.2, Texas 4.4. So, you can see those wage gains are still occurring. Now, something to know what TS Lombard says is something we should pay attention to in regard to this is the following. TS Lombard says that the profit momentum we're seeing so far in the stock market keeps going, which is fantastic.
But, the outlook for for hiring is about to change, and this would be a tail risk, is about to change profit momentum. How? Because hiring has been argued as being tied to deportations. That argument is going to fade away. And as a result, we might actually see profits and corporate spending proceed an upturn in inflation.
Uh uh people proceed Okay. Anyway, the the point of this, let me just translate to English, basically, is if hiring keeps going, and we keep seeing hiring push into the summer, then we should actually see more profit, and yes, more inflationary pressures in the short term, but we should see more profits at companies, not less.
So, we can actually continue to accelerate profit momentum. Uh and there is more of an upside in hiring, uh or more of an upside in earnings, because of the boost we're seeing in hiring. So, in other words, TS Lombard argues, we may not actually be bullish enough, which is really exciting. Now, why then is the stock market a little poopy-dupy today?
Well, not all of the stock market is poopy-dupy today. There are some things that we want to pay attention to. First of all, the Cerebras IPO, which I've been calling as a scam and a pump and dump, I'm very bearish on this, and I have been since the day before the IPO. You can look up my original video on it if you look up Meet Kevin Cerebras, you will see my video, probably right here, on like the 14th or 13th of May, and I dump on this as a likely coming pump and dump, and sure enough, that's exactly what we're seeing here.
We got that day one pump on low liquidity, and it's been dumping. This is a red flag for IPOs coming, which is not great. Now, what is this also a red flag of? Liquidity. Now, that is also a problem, because we're seeing that issue at Google. Now, we're going to talk about Google in just a moment, but another place you're seeing tighter liquidity is Bitcoin.
Bitcoin obviously, sitting now at what are we at? 65 8 65 8 on Bitcoin. Bitcoin's decline here has of course been accelerated by that 2 and 1/2 million dollar sale 32 Bitcoin sale over at MicroStrategy. Which doesn't even cover the perfs that they need to pay out. But, they've also crushed stretch over here.
They've had stretch as a consistent $100 uh you know, yield-bearing instrument. And this perpetual fund, in my opinion, is a scam. But, that's my opinion. I've got my own videos out on it. You can look it up. Meet Kevin, the MicroStrategy scam or STRC, you know, stretch or some of the other ones. You can read all or watch all the details on that.
But, you're seeing that decoupling from 100, which is a liquidity red flag. Now, what does this have to do with Cerberus? Liquidity. Liquidity issues over here. Less money available for these IPOs. Less money available for Bitcoin. Less money available to pay for your preferreds or or your perpetuals.
Where else are we seeing less money? Less money in Bitcoin. Now, what does any of that have to do with Google? Everything. Because what did Google just do? Google just announced that they were going to raise 80 billion dollars now revised up to 85 billion dollars. Okay? And here's how they do that. Let's let's take this this board out here for a moment.
Man, I really got to get a paper towel. Oh, I actually have one today. That's fantastic. Usually, I don't keep paper towels in here. But, I needed a racer. That's what I really need. Cuz I don't do a really good job at this. But, I think this is quite useful. All right. So, you need to know what's going on over here.
Very important. All right. So, Google first said that they were going to have an anchor an anchor of 10 billion dollars. And that anchor was Berkshire Hathaway. Now, Greg Abel was only able to score a 7 and 1/2% discount. Now, in fairness, on 10 billion dollars, that's pretty good, but a little disappointing, you know, Buffett is usually in that 15 to 30% range, and they're trying to argue, "Oh, Greg's doing this all on his own.
He's so great. He's He's carrying the torch." Yeah, that's cool. But anyway, they used Buffett basically, Berkshire, to anchor this Google fund raise. The problem with that is now they have this extra 30, which then they're like, "JK, it's actually 35 billion. We're going to sell even more." And an extra 40 billion dollars that Google is going to raise by issuing stock.
The problem with this is, while Berkshire is going to hodl, what do you think's going to happen with this 30 to 40? The 30 to 40 could probably start hitting the market as soon as July 1st, and will probably hit the market between July 1st and the end of the year. Ooh, great. What else is happening between July 1st and the end of the year?
Oh, well, Anthropic IPO, the OpenAI IPO, and SpaceX will be about 2 weeks into trading. So, you've got a lot of demands for the L word, liquidity. And that's not good. So, why is that potentially related to what's going on with the Nasdaq 100? Well, look at Nvidia. Nvidia, once again, once again, rejected my 227 line.
Look, when we do our membership live streams, we don't just look at fundamentals. We look at fundamentals and the technicals. You rarely get people who do both fundamentals and technicals. And you even more rarely get people who do fundamentals, technicals, and real estate. But that's just cuz I'm a little kooky-dooky, okay?
I love it all. Give it all to me, baby. I just want more. I can't get enough. Anyway, Nvidia over here, once again, loses the 227, which is a big problem because it is a $5 trillion company. You need a lot of liquidity to keep this puppy pumped. And unfortunately, that is like an anchor to the NASDAQ 100, especially when we're getting a reloading of the software shorting sector.
In fact, if you look at the statistics right now for the shorts on the market, median single stock short interest within the S&P 500 is at the highest level we have seen in the last 15 years. There is either a lot of hedging going on, or a lot of shorting going on. Well, I mean, I guess that's both.
Uh but some of the shorting could just be straight shorting and straight bearishness. And unfortunately, if you're bullish and there's a lack of liquidity, things start leaning in the favor of the bears. Not great, especially since we're kicking the can down the road on this nuclear deal with Iran. And of course, the Strait of Hormuz still isn't open, and Donald Trump is in no rush to actually open the Strait of Hormuz.
Now, in good news, the ISM services read beat this morning. However, indicated that the employment index hit its second lowest level since September of 2025. Unfortunately, though, if you hit the IS or the S&P version of this, they say we are at the lowest level uh uh of uh employment uh or the pace of employment in 6 years.
So, in other words, some of these leading indicators, not sort of the backwards, how many people were hired, but some of the leading indicators from PMI, uh from both S&P and uh so Standard & Poor's and ISM, Institute for Supply Side Management, both of them are flagging, I don't know, this might not last.
You've got here the uh S&P report saying that demand for services has largely stalled over the the 3 months, losing strength seen earlier in the year. Folks, this is from today. They literally released this report today, June 3rd. This is fresh data. Overall economic growth has been running at a modest pace of just above 1% and consumer-facing sectors are getting hit the hardest where we're now seeing the steepest pace of decline since the pandemic.
You know, people keep asking me about like, "Oh, Kevin, should you know, should we get into like these restaurant stocks or whatever?" And I'm like, "Hell freaking no do I want to touch consumer stocks right now? Absolutely not." Now, AMD's having a breakout, which is fantastic. But, the last consumer stock I beat on was Walmart back when it was in the 130s.
And, you know, now it's at 116. We are though seeing some recovery. I mean, very little on the recovery side today. You've got meta up 4%, AMD and armor up, Marvell is up and doing well, but there's a lot of red in the market right now. Uh and arm is sitting right here against the 419 line. And AMD did break out of 520.
And so, as long as we keep holding that, that's pretty bullish right here on on AMD. It's just not strong enough of a stock to actually pull the entire index up. So, this gives you a full breakdown of all this insanity. And remember, join me. You know, and we have a great course member live stream with fundamental analysis on new stocks or even old stocks every single day the market is open.
Use coupon code Marvell, bit of the membership. The only thing that would be extra, and you can bundle this up if you want, would be our reinvest artificial intelligence software that launches in full at the end of this month. And when it does finally come out, it is going to be much more expensive.
Uh keep in mind also, we just today released the web application for the alpha report, so you don't only have to rely on the Meet Kevin mobile app for it. You can also utilize the desktop app. So, .
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