저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
JOLTS 구인건수 7.62백만으로 예상(6.87백만) 대폭 상회, 구인/실업 비율 1 상회 회복으로 경기 낙관론 제시. 이란-미국 협상 교착에도 유가는 대체 항로(홍해)로 안정. 마벨(MRVL)은 매출 27.5% 성장·매출원가 22.8% 증가로 마진 확대, 엔비디아 투자 등 재무 개선을 근거로 장기 보유 추천. 소프트웨어 랠리 확인 시 QQQ 1000 가능성 언급. 상장 준비 기업(Anthropic 등) 호재 강조. 본문 대부분은 유료 멤버십·쿠폰 홍보.
다듬은 글
Holy moly, the economic data that just came out is smoking fire, but not only that what the Marvell is happening? Literally yesterday on the channel, I talked about how Marvell is being treated like this red-headed stepsister, whom I think is quite beautiful. And I've been like bragging about Marvell for a very long time.
And holy moly, the it's up 23%. I'm going to explain what the heck is going on right here and why we picked up on this particular stock. And I think that's the lesson here. It's not not to be a sales pitch for the Meet Kevin membership or whatever. You already know that exists over at meetkevin.com.
It's it's to show you why did we write this in the past? Why did we say AMD, Nvidia, and Marvell are all undervalued. This this isn't recent, you know, this is from many weeks back. You know, hard to be bearish here in the short term. As we've said in Alpha, next 6 months should be very rewarding to hardware.
This was written in April. Right? Look at this. During this hardware medium-term trade, Marvell has SanDisk potential. You know, the one that went vertical. Yeah, anyway, we'll talk about that in just a moment, but folks we need to start with the economic data. We just got a JOLTS report, which in fairness, I pooh-poohed initially.
Not when the report came out, but the fact that it was on its way. So, as the report was on its way, I thought, all right, it's the JOLTS report. It's going to be a nothing burger. It's not going to lead the market to sell off. Nobody cares about the JOLTS report right now. It should be fine. That was my impression going into it.
But folks, it was more than fine. It was a reversal of the labor market to the upside. Yeah, I'm not no, trying to get like giddy or super bullish here, but like look at this. These numbers just out. Okay, job openings were expected to come in at 6866. That's 6.8 million people. That's how many job openings we were expected to have, right?
It actually came in at 7618, which is a beat of 10.9% on the monthly jobs data. Huge, okay? Not just that though. The quits level was expected to be at 3.1 mil, came in at just under 3 mil, 2.977. Also had a revision down on the prior. Job openings rate shot up from the prior of 4.1, revised up to 4.2.
Survey said we were going to stay stable. Shoots up to 4.6. So, I don't I don't know where, but according to this data, which who knows, maybe it's rigged. Maybe maybe Bill Pulte is not only rigging Fannie and Freddie, and now he's going to rig Tulsi Gabbard's spot over at the DNI or as the DNI, Director of National Intelligence.
Maybe he's also rigging the jobs data. But, that's pretty damn good. Now, even Nick T is yapping about it. Look at this. Ratio of job openings to unemployed workers. Okay, this is distracting. Somebody Hunter Oh, okay, this is someone's writing an AI reply over here. So, you know, I like I have One of the reasons I've actually stopped using X is because the amount of AI slop on there is insane.
A lot of the like the news summaries and stuff you get on there, you don't actually get human perspective anymore. It's just AI slop. And I'm like, "Ah!" And the algorithms actually feeding it. But anyway, ratio of job openings to unemployed workers, uh this is really good because we fell under one.
You could kind of see that one line. It's very hard to see, but it's right here where my mouse is. We fell under one, which is very bearish uh for the economy because it when we're under one, which the balance level is one, it's a sign that we might be trending towards a recession, right? But we actually went probably as low as about .82-ish, and we rocketed right through back to one.
So, this is a huge huge chart. I mean, poor Nick T only has 20 likes on this. I'll throw in the 21st like there and give him a little bookmark, too. I like Nick T. I think he's a good guy. Job openings 3-month moving average also uh coming back up. You can see this is where we've gotten stuck in the, you know, quicksand a little bit, and you will sink down, but boy, this is this is fantastic.
So, that is economically highly bullish. Now, obviously, the fact that Iran is reiterating just this morning I'm looking for the news wire service right here. Uh Iran's Fars News Agency uh as of this morning, 6:12 a.m. California time, so 9:12 Eastern, message exchange between Iran and US to reach a memorandum of understanding has stopped a few days ago.
So, this is sort of doubling down on this idea that, hey, negotiations have stalled. In fairness, the oil's barely moving. Brent stable, WTI stable. Part of this could be because we are seeing alternate routes. Uh you know, Saudi Arabia is sending almost all of their oil through uh the Red Sea and avoidle it represented, you know, including Saudi Arabia, maybe about 18% of the world's oil supplies, without, you know, maybe closer to 10%.
Uh you know, we can ramp up that 10% from somewhere else. So, that straight might just become less and less valuable and I think that's why as Donald Trump's like, you know what? I don't really care about the negotiation with Iran. This might just be a kick down kick the can down the road for a long time and the economy just sort of builds around it.
I mean, that is the nature of capitalism after all. If one thing doesn't work, you sort of you just move. Like and we're going to get to Marvell in just a moment because, you know, I I I I want you to know about Marvell. In fact, we we are just in honor of Marvell because we've been calling out Marvell as a big W for the hardware sector in the course member live streams.
It's one of our, you know, long-term and short-term stocks to buy. It's been part of the hardware rally. We've been buying it part of the long-term investment thesis and there's a reason for the long-term investment thesis we're adding it. Uh but we've had it for a while now. And so, course members are going to make bank if they've been buying Marvell.
And it's part of obviously the hardware cycle, which the hardware movement is more guaranteed right now than software, which is, you know, or are institutions reloading shorts? Seems to be what's happening today is you're getting some some reloading of shorts. But that happens. But Marvell is really interesting.
Uh and we're going to talk about Marvell in just a moment, but what we're going to do just in honor of Marvell is we're changing the name of the coupon code uh for that'll that'll you've got about a, you know, I'm probably about 10 days or so. We're changing the coupon code to Marvell. Literally just in honor of that call out on Marvell.
So, I'm really excited about that. If you want to see that, go check that out over at meetkevin.com. We're going to align the expiration of this coupon code with the release of a lot of our new features. Uh and so, those new features are going to lead to a big price increase of the courses. Uh so, this this I'm not sure if we're going to get it out on June 8th.
If it ends up being like the 9th or the 10th, then Mar- the coupon code Marvell will expire then. So, you've got a little bit of time. But anyway, let's let's analyze Marvel just for a moment here. First of all, this is what we wrote in April. And what we were analyzing was large pricing power and really good gross margin.
Something that you have to remember about Marvel is Nvidia did invest via preferred round $2 billion into the company. And it really set up their balance sheet to not just be good, which is what I previously wrote, but after the investment, it's really been a great balance sheet. So, it's your even improved.
Uh it's um you know, these days uh even a $200 billion company in the hardware space, which Marvel is, you know, into the 200s now, it's sort of like a Dell size, is not that large relative to hardware. Relative to all companies, it's a great it's big, right? It's a big company. But relative to the hardware sector, Marvel is still kind of cheap.
So, if you look right now, it's now up 25% as I'm filming this. It's about $241 million. And if I jump in Oh, Enphase is up another 7% today. If I jump in now and I go to like an AMD, which just rejected off my 520 line, you know, I've got an $829 billion company here. Uh Broadcom, which we referenced yesterday, is sitting at $2.2 trillion.
Oh, and Nvidia is going back to the line. Literally in ou, I said this is a great sign. The next thing we need to do for Nvidia, because breaking out of this is a huge sign, we need to prove that we can hold it. And so, we were like up here and I'm like, watch us come down and bounce off 227. That'll be the bullish sign.
Maybe maybe it happens, maybe not, but But anyway, this is fantastic. You know, Palantir coming down 5% 4 5% today, this is a sign of some short reloading. Not uncommon. You've had a very nice short squeeze here off the 130 line. Not a surprise. I just really hope we can break through 164 on Palantir.
So far we've been unable to do it and that's very important for the software rally. But this is a fantastic move here. And we did some more fundamentals on on Marvell just to you know, double verify what's going on. Something to know and and there's a lot of clean up here. I mean this is the kind of stuff that we generally do on a daily basis in the course live so we won't go into all of it.
But you've got expanding gross profit. You do have some increases in SG&A and some of their op ex mostly due to acquisitions that they've done. But as far as gross profit they're expanding their pricing power. You know, you've got revenue growth at 27.5% and their cost of goods sold only up 22.8 so their margins are going up.
And they're really just now starting to get attention in the hardware sector. So I think this is a play that's really just getting its start. And being pretty transparent about that. As we hunt for other plays and opportunities as well. So far though you did you should have heard yesterday that Anthropic confidentially filed for IPO.
That in my opinion is a sign of a lot of money to be made. Why I say that and I mentioned this I'm going to pull this up really quick. Yesterday I sent a daily wealth which is free for for everybody. If you want the daily wealth you can download that totally for free. You just download the Meet Kevin app.
It's one of the tabs on there. And yesterday I mentioned that markets are are at all time highs and things are probably going to get even more wild or ludicrous to levels that would seem ludicrous. I actually have a target that in this cycle we could probably get to QQQ 1000. I don't have a date on that target yet but I do think it's possible we hit QQQ 1000 if we verify the software broadening out.
If software truly broadens out not just a little short squeeze and then it goes back down, like a true bottom, uh the Qs will push a thousand. But anyway, uh in this daily wealth I argued that you have to remember not to just focus on growth during these times. Now I argue that now's the time to build a business, Anthropic, SpaceX, OpenAI, OpenAI, they're all going for IPO.
This is the time to raise money to build your business, to lower your debt, but grow, grow, grow. Whether you're an employee, you can grow your education or the value you provide, uh you know, you do more for the company. If you're an entrepreneur, do more for yourself, your own company, right? Get a job if you don't have one, whatever.
Do your best obviously to reconfigure your abilities to actually be hireable, right? Like I I hear people they're like, "Oh yeah, I'm stay I'm work from home customer service for Apple and I can't find a job." Okay. Well, you might have to A, go into an office and B, get, you know, some new skills. You know?
Uh like maybe you are um you know, somebody who used to work for Apple with a lot of technical skills and you're ready to go work in the office. Probably not entirely untrue. Utilize that and go get your interview. Come prepared with some actual skills. Even if you have to go and teach yourself some skills.
Uh plenty of ways to do that these days, but the the time now is to grind harder because the the money that's going to slosh around from these IPOs is really expansive, uh but it's not only that. You do also have to keep in mind, and this is what people forget, and I just want I I want to grab people and shake them by the shoulders and say, "Please, please, please.
If you were making good money in the stock market right now or your business or whatever, please never forget PP." Everything's PP around here, okay? We like PP around here. We like pricing power, we like private planes, okay? We we we we like preparing and protecting. And that's [snorts] the those are the two P's in this case.
Prepare and protect. This whirlwind of enthusiasm can continue to go on for a while. But when it ends, it's going to be very painful and very dark. And there's always during these times a shortage of people reminding you to prepare and protect. Don't get left behind in in you know a down cycle. Cuz you could it could take generations to recover from a a down cycle that you mismanaged.
You know, because you spent all your money or you didn't protect yourself, you didn't put some cash aside, you were too high in debt, whatever. Anyway, daily wealth is something I send every single day and there's some really cool things in here. I don't know there's there's a lot whether it's finance or taxes or whatever.
There's there's some great stuff in there. You get that for free in the Meet Kevin app. Daily wealth will always be free. You can use the Meet Kevin app for that. Apple and Android. Anyway, that's what I got for us today. Remember you can go to meetkevin.com use that coupon code Marvel. Shout out to freaking Marvel and get into our fundamental analysis before we talked about it here on YouTube. If we ever even do talk about it on YouTube. by .
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