저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
시장 하락은 정상적 조정이며 극단적 비관(bearishness)은 저점 신호라고 봄. 연준은 금리 인하에 서두르지 않지만 시장 하락 시 개입(Fed put) 가능성 있음. 트럼프 관세 발언이 시장 악재이며 관세 없는 날이 좋은 날. 재정적자와 부채 문제는 미해결, 국채금리 4.3% 부근 안정. 관세가 영구화되면 미국에 불리하고 해외 증시가 상대적으로 강세. 인도 증시는 바닥을 다지는 중이며 중국-미국 관세 악화 시 제조업이 인도로 이동해 수혜 가능.
다듬은 글
uh well let's get in get get in Ed yini president at yini research he with us Ed thank you very much for joining us uh now you know I don't know if you saw Scott besson's interview over the weekend on press uh very interesting right here's a market man when asked about the market falling saying well it's okay it's normal it's a normal healthy correction yeah and uh I think there was also question on recession he said well I can't I can't say for sure whether there will be or will not be a recession so they be pretty okay with this fall that we're seeing well I think a lot of us on Wall Street are disappointed with Scott bessent we we thought he was one of us we thought he was a market guy and that he understood that markets mattered uh but now he's kind of dismissing us uh you know he he's he's not one of us anymore and that's actually a little disturbing right because uh markets do matter markets do vote they do give you an opinion and I think dismiss a 10% correction in the S&P 500 and more than that in the NASDAQ is is is fine as long as it doesn't turn into a bare Market that lasts a long time and you know they they're kind of like messing around with nitroglycerin this is very very dangerous to uh you know basically tell people that the administration doesn't care very much if we have a recession because the short-term pain is going to be for long-term gain and nobody believes that nobody believes it until they see it and meanwhile Americans don't do pain very well uh you know they they voted for a president that they thought would make things better and uh they're not that patient so they it could it could be a an issue for the midterm elections is the correction over uh Ed in the US in your opinion in my opinion no uh I am very uh it's very bullish to see that bearishness is so high we have very High uh bearishness sentiment indicators uh for the stock market and that usually makes a low but the reason it makes a low is because coincident with people getting extremely pessimistic is that the Federal Reserves recognizes there a problem and that comes in and we get the fed put we get easing by the fed this time around the FED is indicated quite explicitly there are no hurry to lower interest rates they think the economy is still res resilient meanwhile they have all the uncertainties as the rest of us do with regards to tariffs and whether tariffs might boost inflation and the last thing they want to do is lower interest rates even if the economy is weak if inflation's actually heating up again so that's that's my problem the other problem is I'd like to see the market do better on a on a day when Trump is talking about tariffs I've come to the conclusion that any day without Trump talking about tariffs is a good day for the markets and that's what we saw on Friday as you mentioned absolutely uh I take that point but you know that the comment was uh it caught I think everybody's attention because he wasn't only talking about tars Mr bessent he was saying that we are warding off a guaranteed financial crisis he talking about the deficit and the spending right and he he he also indicated to back to 2007 and 8 he said that at that point if the excesses had been stopped we wouldn't have had a full-blown Global financial crisis I don't know I mean it seemed to indicate more than just uh the current tariff issue which is what the market is primarily fixated on uh the government shutdown and the spending that's not yet uh so sort of uh front up in the narrative it seems the Market's problem is tariffs and inflation but could the government Cuts more spending cuts if they come in could that kind of feed into it as well yeah I I think that uh I I recall that uh his predecessor US Treasury secretary Jan Yellen once said that there'd never be a financial crisis again or she thought it was very unlikely uh in her lifetime and then we've got we got the pandemic and we had a financial crisis uh so I think it's always unsettling when you hear a policy maker saying that what we're doing now is going to avert a financial crisis when the reality is they really haven't done anything uh to reduce the deficit if we have a crisis it's going to going to be related uh to uh the extreme amount of debt relative to GDP in the United States it's very interesting to see that the bond yield has been very very quiet around 4.3% you would think that uh with concerns about a recession Rising that the bond yield would come down that's not happened at all uh but I think uh right now bessent basically is borrowing a lot of money in the treasury bill market and so that's uh kept the bond market relatively quiet but there's a lot of Securities that have to be refinanced this year and um the debt issue uh certainly has not been resolved and there's still lots that has to go through Congress with regards to uh fiscal policy all we've done is H passed uh you know Kick the Can down the road with regards to the budget right you know Ed the overarching theme is or belief is that Trump is a manufacturing listen to business listens to what you know the markets are saying do you think with what the markets are making of his tariff announcements Etc there could be a case for him rolling back some of them or maybe you know toning his uh narrative down a little bit well I I hope so I hope he just doesn't uh remain bullheaded about uh his his tariffs he has bragged many times and called himself tariff ban and I think uh all of us on Wall Street including myself had the illusion maybe delusion that uh all Trump was really going to do was Bluster he was going to Huff and was puff and then once he threatened the tariffs that there' be negotiations to bring the tariffs down but he's also said that he's really intent on using tariffs to raise revenues which means permanent tariffs he's also said that he wants tariffs to discourage companies from producing abroad he wants more companies to come back to the United States which means permanent tariffs and per you know he's kind of comparing himself to President McKinley who also used tariffs to bring revenues into the United States the risk is the comparison that will be relevant is Herbert Hoover who signed the smooth Holly tariff tariffs are bad news and uh right now it's interesting to see that uh foreign stock markets are outperforming the US Stock Market suggesting that at the end of the day tariffs might be actually worse for the United States than for the rest of the world because the rest of the world is still going to operate with the same tariffs relative to to one another uh got it you know so through this so April 2nd right and what happens into that day and uh I think that'll be that'll be interesting but it's interest it's you know John authors the Ft the Bloomberg columnist now he wrote a piece saying why Trump cares less about Market pain now and I think there have been others who've been pointing this out as well uh the you know I I spoke with uh Louie gavle two weeks back yeah and he said well he doesn't really care I mean they don't really they're not focused on the SNP they're more focus on the tenure uh and when I say they mean Trump and bessent Etc so that's interesting we'll see I mean you know now that those thresholds are being tested maybe that Trump Port is not here it's a little lower who knows but India uh any thoughts Ed and how we are placed we we've already kind of kind of corrected quite a bit and last week as us was correcting the market held on I think that's a very good sign because for a while there the India was going down along with the United States and both the United States and India had had the big rallies and the valuation multiples were stretched so it certainly looked like Global Investors were moving out of high valued stock markets like the US and India and into China and Europe uh but it is I think encouraging to see that India may be very well bottoming out before the United States uh bottoms out and that uh look there's clearly a lot of uh liquidity in the global economy and if money is coming out of the US Stock Market there's certainly enough to diversify into the Indian market uh but I think uh to the extent that the Tariff situation gets worse between China and the United States I think India benefits from that because I think more Manu manufacturers will in fact move to India and I have clients who are telling me that's exactly what they're doing oh okay that sounds good uh we don't mind that at all Ed thank you so much for thank you so much for joining in and giving us that perspective today thanks very much thank you well with that
Comments 0