저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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인도 총선 불확실성으로 외국인 매도(약 4.7만 크로어, 약 60억 달러)가 나타났으며, 이는 감정적 반응이므로 기업 펀드멘털 기준 역발상 매수 기회가 될 수 있다고 주장. 모디 정부 압승 시 시장 호재, 350석 수준이면 횡보, 250~300석이면 악재로 전망. 인도는 반도체·기술 투자 중심지로 부상 잠재력이 크며, 미·중 관세 전쟁으로 멕시코와 함께 수혜 가능. 필요한 개혁은 외국인 투자 절차 간소화와 주 간 규정 통일. 최선호는 기술 도입으로 수익성을 높이는 기업이며 특정 종목·최근 매수 변화는 밝히지 않음.
다듬은 글
welcome back you're watching Market masters with us is Mark mobus author and billionaire investor on his latest book you know Mark coming back to the India scenario there are of course lot of things which affect the sentiment in the markets and currently there is a certain degree of volatility a decline in the sensex and Nifty that we've seen because of Indian elections that is what several experts suggest do you think this volatility is indeed dur due to elections or are there other factors at play how should investors see this I think there's no question the elections are having an impact um because people do look at the elections very carefully everyone is involved emotionally in one degree or another and they tend to react emotionally in the market itself uh so now there's an opportunity because if you can look at the emotion in the market and recognize that perhaps the mo emotion the direction of the market driven by emotion is wrong then you should do the opposite thing in other words if everyone's selling maybe you should be buying and vice versa of course based on the fundamentals on the actual uh fundamentals of the companies in which you are investing so yes I would say that for India now probably the Indian elections are having a big impact on the emotion of the market right uh we've seen at least 47,000 crores offloaded by Foreign institutional investors since the time the elections began in India in April approximately $6 billion have been offloaded Mark what according to you would be the reasons for this it's probably because the uncertainty arising from the election a lot of uh investors uh not not only foreign investors but investors anywhere in the world including Indian investors tend to hate uncertainty they don't want it to be uncertain and of course the as you mentioned the outcome of the election is uncertain you know some people say that that uh Modi will get a super majority and that he'll be able to get more seats in Congress other people say no he may not and that creates uncertainty so whenever there's uncertain they people say okay I'm out of here I'm going to wait until I find out what's really going to happen and then I'll invest so uncertainty is a big big driver to this and that's probably what's happening with foreign investors right uh let me ask you about two to three scenarios one is if the Prime Minister the BJP the NDA they cross the 400 seats Mark as they have been suggesting and claiming that they will win big they will win in with record numbers if they manage to do that how do you see the markets reacting and what will be the growth momentum and investment momentum and attitude towards India I think if they do that uh the market will probably do well probably move up barring any other uh Factor coming in but I would say it would be good news for the market and more importantly it would be good for the economy because then the policy objectives of growth and the adoption of Technology will be very important one of the key aspects now for India will be its ability to attract foreign technological Investments semiconductors software Etc uh there's an incredible opportunity for India to become the center for uh technical Innovation and Technical manufacturing uh and that will depend on the degree to which the Indian government is able to attract uh these large manufacturers from China from Taiwan from us Japan Etc um and that of course depends on the degree of bureaucracy and restrictions that the Indian government imposes and my reading is that the Modi government will probably try to make it more attractive and loosen up uh these restrictions which will attract more foreign investors right uh what if the government the BJP or the NDA all together get the same numbers as last year they don't get the 400 seats as promised but they end up around 350 353 just the same number as last year probably the market will move sidewards you know there won't be uh much excitement in the market um uh and it it the market as you know has gone up quite a lot so there probably could be a correction along the way uh so that won't be as good news as if uh you had a better election result right and what if uh they end up with less the number less the less than the number in 2019 somewhere between 250 to 300 seats how does that impact the sentiment in the market and the growth trajectory and the attitude towards India bad news the market will probably not do very well uh you there'll be a lot of negative sentiment unless of course uh unless the opposition parties Congress comes in and say look we're going to adopt a uh a market oriented technologically oriented Administration and we're going to adopt new technologies we're going to digitize the economy uh following Modi then you know you're going to get different scenario but initially it won't be good news right uh as you've also said in your book there are periods of uncertainty in history and elections are of course a period of uncertainty uh so how should investors see this one thing is to gauge the sentiment Follow Your Instinct be knowledgeable about what's happening but if you're not able to gauge the situation well what should an investor do at the moment in India or ones who are looking at India right now I think the key thing is to look at the individual companies uh in which you're interested companies that have uh good earnings numbers High return on Capital and so forth and look at these companies and ask the question uh how will a modian Administration getting stronger or weaker or staying the same affect this company what will be the outcome in many cases you'll find there'll be no difference the company will continue to operate there'll be no big change in its uh operations sales so forth um in that case if the price goes down it' probably be a buying opportunity so I think uh at that stage in these periods of uncertainty again you have to uh move rationally in other words look at the individual companies and rationally assess what impact uh the uh political environment will have on this company right uh you have been a bull on India you have said that you've been following tech stocks India very closely recently you told us that your top stocks were tips netweb Vari uh if I were to ask you right now what would be your top picks in India any other companies or sectors that you're following closely what would those be Mark uh no big changes but I can't tell you that because we may be in the process of buying so but no big changes all right no big changes uh any large sectors that you would remain most bullish on in India irrespective of the election outcome uh companies that adopt technology uh by the way it doesn't mean that it is software companies or Hardware computer hardware companies but I would say companies that adopt uh new technologies to improve their profitability those are the companies you want to focus on right uh my final set of questions when it comes to India irrespective of who is elected Ed what are some of the reforms that are needed according to you in India because we are trying to be an alternative to China you've also said that in many ways you prefer India to China but those Capital flows are right now not coming to India what are some of the reforms that we that we need to make sure that we attract those funds uh first and foremost uh uh the uh the paperwork and the uh uh approvals necessary to bring to make investments into India have to be uh simplified and lightened so that companies can bring in capital with the guarantee that they'd be able to bring it out again in the future that's very important so uh agreements and terms and conditions have to be simplified in that respect uh that's number one number two um it's very interesting that there is competition from the different states in India some states have different rules than other states the degree to which uh these states can come together and agree on common rules regarding foreign investments would be quite beneficial for the country as a whole because then companies could have multiple locations in the various States uh some of these companies are very big they have to be in multiple places they want to be in multiple places take advantage of the opportunities uh for Workforce U uh ability so that I think this would be another important reform so in other words a a more uh unified um system between the states in India so I would say those are two things simplification and unification all right the the US has slapped additional tariffs on China Almost 100% not almost 100% on electric vehicles coming in from China uh 25 to 50% on semiconductors solar cells how do you think this is going to uh really pan out for Global markets because clearly there will be escalating tensions between us and China and the trade Wars could worse it well again this is where India comes in where India will benefit from these changes because suppliers you know the supply chain challenge for American importers is getting more more difficult and they need to find new sources of Supply where can they go what other the countries have a billion population a Workforce of a billion people it's India uh so Mexico is benefiting by the way a great deal but I think India could benefit again provided that the Indian government simplifies the investment process thank you very much Mark we've come to the end of this special interview but thank you very much for leaving us with takeaways from your book the book of wealth u and also telling us about the tips that young investors must keep in mind while getting into the stock market and also about the trajectory of the Indian stock markets here onwards thank you once again for being with us
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