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Tom Lee says Ethereum could surpass $10,000 in the next 12 months. His main reasoning is that companies stockpiling Ethereum would increase their holdings from around 7% to 15% of the supply. So, who will buy the missing part? Of the approximately 7% currently held, nearly 5% belongs to a single company , Bitmain.
And the chairman of Bitmain is Tom Lee. Earlier this month, he set a ceiling for the company to stop buying when it reached 5% of the supply. And Bitmain was very close to that level. This means that nearly three-quarters of the current inventory comes from one buyer who is about to stop buying. And that prediction came from the very person in charge of that buyer.
This doesn't mean he's wrong. It also doesn't mean Bitmain will sell, because stopping buying isn't the same as selling. It simply means the additional income has to come from someone else. And that part is much bigger than many people think. To go from 7% to 15%, companies need to acquire approximately 8% more of the Ethereum supply.
At current prices, that's nearly 10 million Ethereum, worth over $20 billion USD. To put it into perspective, this amount is far greater than the entire Ethereum stockpile that Bitmain has accumulated so far. So, who's in second place? That's Sapling, whose Ethereum holdings are less than one-sixth of Bitmain's.
This company even stopped buying for eight months before resuming small purchases. Therefore, the gap is not only large, but the person immediately behind is also still very far behind. The next question is why are these companies struggling to accelerate? The answer lies in how these companies get the money to buy them.
Tom Lee himself explained the mechanism . When the market offers a higher price for the company's stock than the value of the Ethereum it holds, the company sells additional shares and uses the proceeds to buy Ethereum. Existing shareholders benefit because each share is pegged to more Ethereum. But now it's the opposite.
According to all three sets of publicly available data, Bitmain's stock is currently undervalued compared to the amount of Ethereum the company holds. In that situation, selling shares to buy Ethereum is like selling off a share of the current shareholder's stock at a loss. Bitmain itself had previously committed not to issue shares when the price fell below this level.
In other words, the machine that once generated the greatest buying power is now locked down by its own rules. At this point, the question is no longer just who buys more. The question is, what is the supply side doing? Many people still think Ethereum is becoming scarce . In fact, every day the Ethereum network pays new Ethereum to those who lock up Ethereum to operate the network.
While the portion being burned through transaction fees is currently very small. According to a measurement from mid-October, the supply is increasing by nearly 3,000 Ethereum per day. Meanwhile, Bitmain, the biggest buyer , is accumulating around 1,800 Ethereum per day. Imagine a tank, with water still flowing in from the tap, and the person scooping the water most forcefully is doing so slower than the water flow.
The number will fluctuate each day. The key is the relationship between large and small, and it shows that the argument for tightening supply is not yet valid. What about Tom Lee's other two reasons? With institutional money flowing in, major banks have indeed recommended allocating a few percent to crypto.
But a recommendation is permission, not money. Real money is moving in the opposite direction. In October alone, Ethereum ETFs in the US experienced outflows of nearly $1 billion. By bringing assets like funds and bonds onto the blockchain, Ethereum is the largest chain, but it accounts for less than half, not nearly all, of the market.
And a fund that runs on Ethereum doesn't necessarily mean that fund buys Ethereum. In Q3, Ethereum surged by approximately 70% as ETFs and institutional investors bought heavily. Now both of those cash flows have weakened, and since the end of the quarter, the price has lost about 1/10 of its value.
So, is the main engine behind the $10,000 mark still running? With the current data, no. The biggest buyer is about to stop. Bitmain's mechanism for issuing shares to buy more Ethereum is facing obstacles, and the supply continues to increase. That doesn't mean Ethereum will drop, it just means the $10,000 mark needs a new impetus.
If you want to verify this yourself, you can check a number on public websites showing the Ethereum supply held by companies that are hoarding it. If Bitmain stops trading and this number remains around 7%, the main reason for the forecast not hitting is that it hasn't worked yet. If it increases significantly, the engine has restarted.
A strong valuation forecast is backed by a buyer. In your opinion, who is capable of replacing Bitmain as the biggest buyer?
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