저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
톰 리는 기업들의 이더리움 보유 비중이 공급의 약 7%에서 15%로 늘어나면 이더리움이 향후 12개월 내 1만 달러를 넘을 수 있다고 주장. 발표자는 이 주장의 핵심 매수자인 Bitmine(톰 리 회장 소속)이 공급의 약 5%를 보유하고 있으며, 매수 중단 상한(5%)에 근접해 매수 동력이 약화된다고 분석. 주식 발행을 통한 ETH 매수 메커니즘도 현재 주가가 순자산가치(NAV) 대비 저평가라 막혀 있다고 설명. 공급은 스테이킹 보상으로 하루 약 3,000개 증가하는 반면 Bitmine은 하루 약 1,800개 매수로 공급 압박이 불충분하다고 봄. 미국 이더리움 ETF는 10월 약 10억 달러 유출, 가격은 분기말 이후 약 1/10 하락.
다듬은 글
Tiếng Việt: Lưu ý, bạn đã gửi một bản chép lời tiếng Anh (có tên Bitmain/Sapling, Tom Lee) kèm yêu cầu chỉnh sửa. Tuy nhiên, hướng dẫn hệ thống của tôi dành cho việc biên tập bản chép lời tự động (YouTube auto-caption) sang văn bản dễ đọc, theo đúng ngôn ngữ gốc và giữ nguyên nội dung, và danh sách thuật ngữ đi kèm chỉ liên quan đến chứng khoán Hàn Quốc/Mỹ (ví dụ: Samsung, S&P500, Nvidia, Warren Buffett), không có tiền điện tử. Vì vậy tôi sẽ biên tập bản chép lời này bằng tiếng Anh, giữ đúng nội dung và sửa lỗi nhận dạng giọng nói.
Tom Lee says Ethereum could surpass $10,000 in the next 12 months. His main reasoning is that companies stockpiling Ethereum would increase their holdings from around 7% to 15% of the supply. So who will buy the missing part? Of the roughly 7% currently held, nearly 5% belongs to a single company: BitMine.
And the chairman of BitMine is Tom Lee. Earlier this month, he set a ceiling for the company to stop buying when it reached 5% of the supply, and BitMine was very close to that level. This means nearly three-quarters of the current holdings come from one buyer who is about to stop buying. And that prediction came from the very person in charge of that buyer.
This doesn't mean he's wrong. It also doesn't mean BitMine will sell, because stopping buying isn't the same as selling. It simply means the additional demand has to come from someone else, and that part is much bigger than many people think. To go from 7% to 15%, companies need to acquire approximately 8% more of the Ethereum supply.
At current prices, that's nearly 10 million Ethereum, worth over $20 billion. To put it in perspective, this amount is far greater than the entire Ethereum stockpile BitMine has accumulated so far. So who's in second place? That's SharpLink, whose Ethereum holdings are less than one-sixth of BitMine's. This company even stopped buying for eight months before resuming small purchases. The gap is not only large, but the company immediately behind is also still very far behind.
The next question is why these companies are struggling to accelerate. The answer lies in how they get the money to buy Ethereum. Tom Lee himself explained the mechanism: when the market offers a higher price for the company's stock than the value of the Ethereum it holds, the company sells additional shares and uses the proceeds to buy more Ethereum. Existing shareholders benefit because each share is backed by more Ethereum.
But now it's the opposite. According to all three publicly available data sets, BitMine's stock is currently trading below the value of the Ethereum the company holds. In that situation, issuing shares to buy Ethereum is like selling off a slice of existing shareholders' value at a loss. BitMine had previously committed not to issue shares when the price fell below this level. In other words, the machine that once generated the greatest buying power is now locked by its own rules.
At this point, the question is no longer just who buys more, but what the supply side is doing. Many people still think Ethereum is becoming scarce. In fact, every day the Ethereum network pays new Ethereum to those who lock up their Ethereum to operate the network, while the portion burned through transaction fees is currently very small. According to a measurement from mid-October, supply is increasing by nearly 3,000 Ethereum per day. Meanwhile, BitMine, the biggest buyer, is accumulating around 1,800 Ethereum per day.
Imagine a tank with water still flowing in from the tap, while the person scooping the water most forcefully is scooping more slowly than the inflow. The numbers fluctuate daily, but the key is the relationship between large and small flows, and it shows that the argument for tightening supply is not yet valid.
What about Tom Lee's other two reasons? With institutional money flowing in, major banks have indeed recommended allocating a few percent of portfolios to crypto. But a recommendation is permission, not money, and real money is moving in the opposite direction. In October alone, Ethereum ETFs in the US saw outflows of nearly $1 billion.
Ethereum is the largest blockchain for bringing assets like funds and bonds on-chain, but it accounts for less than half of that market, not nearly all of it. And a fund that runs on Ethereum doesn't necessarily mean that fund buys Ethereum. In Q3, Ethereum surged by about 70% as ETFs and institutional investors bought heavily. Now both of those cash flows have weakened, and since the end of the quarter, the price has lost about one-tenth of its value.
So is the main engine behind the $10,000 target still running? On current data, no. The biggest buyer is about to stop, BitMine's mechanism for issuing shares to buy more Ethereum is facing obstacles, and supply continues to grow. That doesn't mean Ethereum will fall. It means the $10,000 target needs a new driver.
If you want to verify this yourself, check the public figure for the share of Ethereum supply held by companies that are stockpiling it. If BitMine stops buying and this number stays around 7%, the main reason the forecast hasn't been met is that the engine hasn't started. If it rises significantly, the engine has restarted.
A strong valuation forecast needs a buyer behind it. In your opinion, who is capable of replacing BitMine as the biggest buyer?
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