Fed is locked in to a September rate cut, Ed Yardeni says

요약 보기

시장 하락 속 기술주 조정을 두고 Yardeni는 경기 침체는 아니며 연준은 9월 25bp 인하 가능성이 높다고 봄. 상승 확산(broadening melt up)이 S&P 493 중심으로 진행 중이라 평가. 장기적으로 기술·커뮤니케이션서비스·산업재(리쇼어링)·금융주 선호. 소형주는 추격 매수에 신중. 채권은 4~5% 박스권 예상하며 4% 하향 이탈은 어렵다고 봄. 과거 자료 기반으로 지금은 확산 랠리 가능성 강조.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. uh as we're seeing this sell off in the tech sector we want to welcome in Ed yardeni president of yardeni research Dr Ed always great to have you on the show so you heard the two of us talking there uh interesting moves uh today anded you know NASDAQ is slipping lots of attention from investors on the chips of course moving on those headlines let's start there Ed what do you make of of the market action you're seeing in today's trade well I think that uh it's a lot of confusion quite honestly on a day-to-day basis uh there's a lot of confusion about whether this is it this is the the great rotation into smid Caps or whether this is just a short covering rally by a bunch of hedge funds that were short the smidth caps and long the the mega caps there's a lot of confusion about uh what the econom is doing and the economy looked pretty good on today's economic indicators the housing market looks like it's bottoming and industrial production was relatively strong which kind of makes you want to scratch your head and say so why is the Fed lower interest rates exactly so there's it's a lot of cross currence here but I think the FED is pretty much locked into lowering the FED funds rate in September by 25 basis points they've they've made it pretty clear that's what they want to do the inflation rate is definitely going to go in their in the right direction in that case and uh I think we're in what I would describe as a broadening melt up in the market it had been very focused on the mega cap and now I think it's spreading to the rest of the market and I particularly like the S&P 493 uh all all the stocks except the mega cap 7 and so to your point how do we know if this is going to last or do we just wait or there are there things that you can kind of look at that'll help you signal that well first and foremost is what is the economy doing if it's a if it is heading into a recession then we don't want to be in in any uh highly exposed uh economically sensitive areas of the economy with with high valuation multiples but I don't think the econom is heading into recession there's still people I call them the Die Hard hard Landers they they just are convinced that we're going to get a a hard Landing here I I think they've been proven wrong for the past couple of years and they're wrong again so I don't think we have to worry about a bare market and so what we have to worry about is what sectors do we want to be in and I think for the long haul you want to stay with technology for sure I think uh communication Services also are an area where you want to be involved I think some of it is AI related some of it is simply the technology companies can solve a very important problem we have which is a shortage of skilled workers I think you want to be in the Industrials particularly as a result of onshoring and I um like financials uh as the urve dis inverts if you will and Ed uh quickly you know you did mention small caps I do want to get your take just to drill down a bit more into that because listen it's been such a subject of of conversation for investors the move there Ed just quick and aggressive you see pulling back today a bit although you know you look at the Russell in 2000 I mean it's down less than the SPX but your thoughts on the small caps Ed you know when you're talking to clients what do you tell them well the thing that's been uh discouraging about the small caps is how poorly they've been performing all along here until the past week and so that kind of rais raises the legitimacy of this rally it may very well be related to just simply that the market expects the FED will cut rates and smaller cap midcap companies will benefit more from lower rates but when you put a microscope to it you'll see that the big moves have been in biotech uh and also in banking Regional Banks small Regional Banks and a lot of that could just be simply short covering uh I don't know that they're fun mentals have radically changed so I'd be a little wary of the uh of chasing the smid Caps the Russell 2000 but I I think the market is broadening within the S&P 500 um Ed I want to ask about um fixed income and what we're seeing in the rates market right now too because of course we've seen the tenure yields come down with this expectation the fed's getting uh closer to cutting here um what are you watching for in that Mark do you think that right now the market sort of adequately reflecting the outlook for the FED on on that side of the equation well I think uh from what I understand uh that the the market indicators are showing is there's 100% probability that the FED will cut the FED funds rate by 25 basis points in September so I gotta believe that that's in the bond market that's in the stock market that's anticipated and I think uh you know when you you look further out over the next 12 months the federal funds Futures markets are basically anticipating five rate Cuts over the next 12 months now the the Futures markets have been wrong before they could be wrong again I I I do think there's going to be a September cut but I'm not quite convinced that there's going to be a lot more Cuts after that uh and I think the Bond Market's also somewhat skeptical and the bond market meanwhile has to deal with Supply there's a lot of bonds and notes that the the treasury is going to be issuing so I'm looking at a four to 5% uh wide trading range for the bond market Market I don't think we're going to drop under 4% but there are people who are convinced that's about to happen and and when you say you you know you'd be looking for a cut in September but not many more after that how come Ed well look uh past couple years a lot of people were looking for recession I wasn't there I didn't anticipate that there would be a recession and it's the same story now the economy looks like it's pretty resilient looks like uh I mean the Atlanta fed's GDP now was just revised to show an increase of what 2.7 7% uh it's been you know that's up from 1 and a half% a few weeks ago so the economy is looking pretty good and meanwhile inflation's going in the right direction so what's the rush to lower interest rates I thought the fed's game plan until recently was to wait until inflation actually does get down to 2% and stays there for a few months and now they seem to be changing the rules and saying well you know we're almost there that's getting close enough so if if we continue to move closer to it we'll we'll go down to 2% I I can't ignore what they're saying they're in charge not me uh I'm concerned that if they uh lower rates when it's not really necessary uh we'll get a melt up in the market and the problem with melt UPS is they tend to be followed by meltdowns although we've seen a pretty good melt up thus far this year is I don't know is it is this the Meltdown that we're that we're now seeing no no I don't think so all right no I think I think there could be more to the Melt up quite honestly all right we will check in with you soon again and talk about it thanks so much Ed appreciate it thank you