저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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2024년 7월 17일 나스닥 급락(-2.77%)과 대형 기술주 약세, 소형주(러셀2000) 강세로 나타난 섹터 로테이션을 설명하며 분산투자의 중요성을 강조. 트럼프 당선 가능성이 소형 제조·은행주 등 보호무역 수혜 기대를 자극했다고 해석. 개별 종목 집중은 변동성 때문에 투자자가 포기하기 쉬우므로 분산이 필요하다고 주장. 맥도날드 등 일부 종목을 저가 매수 기회로 언급.
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entertain but try to explain what that going on so call me 1800 743 CBC tweet meet me at Jim Kramer you know why you need to stay Diversified because of darn days like today where the Dall 244 points closing above 41,000 for the first time ever but the S&P plunged 1.39% and the ndaq plum 2.77% if you only own the big tech stocks we talk about so much the ones that been leading this sparking till a week ago let me tell you something this day might make you want to give up on the entire asset class and I bet some if not many will do exactly that yes it was that ugly I got to try to prevent that before we get into it I want to say something about the stock market and what it means to me it's been 40 odd years since I came down here a block away and I've always been amazed at how compelling the market can be I regard as a gigantic puzzle I'm always trying to piece things together figure out if a stock might be a buy or sell but I know something else most people just don't care about individual stocks would rather just be in some mutual fund rather than be burdened by the difficulty of managing their own portfolio they were nothing to do with the puzzles take for example I spent an hour with CBC investing club members and Jeff Marx where all we did was talk about which stocks win or lose if Trump's the next president it's a critical issue some would say it's driving this entire sector rotation of course the rotation started last Thursday when we finally got a low Consumer Price Index number when we saw the CPI most investors figured it was time to buy stocks that really benefit from lower raids could to get some rate Cuts mostly home builders and what goes into a home or Home Depot however I have to tell you very few people were prepared for ch gantic kind of inexplicable rotation out of winners into losers all at once as if the mega cap tech stocks really hit a wall and they really do poorly in a lower interest State environment and they've had their days in the Sun and are FY in reality they do well regardless of Rage which is precis why people sold them and frantically shift into the kind of stocks that can put up explos just explosive earnings growth but only when rates go lower on Friday we had a fairly broad-based rally led by small caps again it wasn't clear why the big caps talks were out of favor the small caps just kept running then we got the events of the weekend which led to a new consensus that Trump's extremely likely to win the election suddenly ah the mega cap Tech winners became huge share donors to the loser stocks that had done nothing for ages now here's what really gets interesting the shift from winners to losers mirrored the politics of trump he and his running mes see themselves as populist something that's been out of favor most of my lifetime they see many big capitalization companies as Enterprises that have sold out America in the name of higher stock prices they abandoned small towns USA closed the factories laid off the workers and made their merchandise more cheaply overseas some of this rhetoric is I'm tell you it's right out of the late 19th century as though they're channeling William Jennings Bryant raing against the bankers crucifying mankind on a cross of gold how does this translate into stock for well the big institutional investors want to get right with Trump right because they think he's going to win that means buying the stocks of small to mediumsized businesses that weren't involved in the abandonment of Rural America something you can read about in JD V's Memoir hillbilly elery which is not a particularly conservative book by the way you know what if you read it a different light you would think it's actually a left-wing Manifesto of sorts it also means investors are getting ready for more protectionism last night we learned that Trum Taiwan is being vilified by Trump for stealing a crown jeweled American industry the semiconductor Manufacturing business it's to the point where he been indicated that he might have lift a fingure if China tries to invade holy cow the narrative fits perfectly with today's action people are talking about a broadening out but I think that most did not believe that it's a game over for the big dogs even if you thought they're part of the problem not the solution but that's sure what the sellers I've got the sellers of the of the text in the last half hour they were like please tomorrow something really bad is going to happen I got to get out now get out now but now let me get back to where I was stared okay as much as I love to tell you that all of today's action made sense including the continual boosting the bank stock because people recognize the industry is going to benefit from d d regulation in the event of a trump win I I just can't believe it in fact I know it's not true days like today don't encourage people to invest in individual stocks even as we all know that there's been far more wealth created by owning an apple or an Nvidia or Microsoft or as Amazon than an S&P 500 Index Fund by the way all those stocks were down badly why don't people own these fabulous individual stocks over time that have made so many millionaires out of relative popers the reason actually is simple most people are not Diversified I learned 40 years ago that not all stocks can go up at once that's why staying concentrated in a handful of stocks is a recipe for disaster and for giving up especially if if they're all part of the same sector this weekend while doing some charity work I heard from a bunch of people who wanted to know why they're club members why I stick with such losers like Best Buy or Abit Labs instead of just going all in on Nvidia and Amazon or Apple alphabet I was actually upgraded for buying the stock of Ford for the travel trust what a loser but Ford Best Buy an Abit or the secrets to staying in the game when days like today we our position Invidia just T Invidia just Torpedoes the chapel trust I concentrate on the Gams we got in a honey well or Lindy so I don't go crazy if I didn't have them if I had nothing but say Nvidia and meta I'd say get me out of this stupid Casino I'm done with stocks I can't take the pain the House of Pain how are ever because my trust owns the matter of Industrials retails and Healthcare I actually can handle the pain and it's pain that drives people out of stocks even as they know they'll probably never get rich if they just park their money in an S&P Index Fund of the 500 an amalgam of good bad and IND different stocks where you are resigning yourself to a great deal of mediocrity I believe in diversification not that I never mind you owning an index fund but I want it to be side by side with individual stocks that could potentially make you Fortune that's why I started the CBC investing CL up I know though that you won't stick with those stocks if you're undiversified the pain is just too great on days like today and then tomorrow you're finished with it so while you could argue the small mediumsized businesses have been strong because of lower inflation or the Republican ticket you can also say some large money managers decid the big Tech had gone too far it was time to sell that and switch to the parentally under forming Russell 2000 that Rush of money into these small cap stocks sent them to the Moon in 5 days time and that's what you witness I you know what I don't care which explanation you prefer what matters is that you're now getting a chance to ring the register on the winners from this rotation just a fantastic game and start making a list of what to buy that's being thrown out that's what we've been doing why do that because people like to chase and they hate to buy down they like momentum and they hate preall they're inclined to panic and they toss out great stocks because of fear they only own stocks like Nvidia because they were hot and suddenly well you know what they're not hot anymore but for you that could soon be a buying opportunity hey perhaps always tomorrow as we just had our third day of this rotation and that's 10 that's when they kind of run out of steam too late to buy those stocks for sure listen to the bottom line I've got here for all my years down here I know that if you self ulate on days like today because you ignored diversification put everything in some of the Magnificent s you are doing something wrong and what can I say I don't know because you almost certainly aren't watching this show mil Lord in Michigan me Lord how you doing Kramer Kramer doing okay how about you partner I'm good I'm good I just want to say you know thank you we appreciate everything you do for us thank you these are hard these are trying days aren't they thank you oh yeah oh yeah it's just like you know we got a roughly day today yeah we did we did but you look if we only just own United Health and Johnson and Johnson we'd be Geniuses of course of course uh uh krer I just have a questions about McDonald's McDonald's uh year today is 133% down and as we know we have um um they're earning coming soon in two weeks what should we expect from this company consumer disctionary and and we know like okay I I will tell you that when you buy McDonald's when it's down it has tended to be a great call now and what happens is is that like United Health like PepsiCo like Coca-Cola these great brands people can't get enough of them so what'll happen is it may not even be that good a quarter and I still don't think it'll go down that's how low it's come it's down 12% that's kind of weird down 12 to 15% for McDonald that's a pretty good price to get all right now days like today where we saw a real bifurcation in the market proved one of my most important and off repeated pieces of Market wisdom you got to stay Diversified oh man money T close Watchers know that we've been looking for Brown shoots in this market one of the earliest signs of them were the transport so I'm giving you an update on what the sector is telling us about the health of Greater economy then I have spotted this lesser known AI play I got to put it on your radar screen you won't want to miss that and first Riz reported a quarter this morning that disappointed the street it's been such a winner let's go speak to the CE
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