저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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6월 CPI가 예상보다 낮게 나와 인플레이션 완화가 확인됐고, 고용지표 추세와 경기 둔화 우려를 감안하면 연준이 금리를 인하해야 한다는 주장. 7월 31일 FOMC에서 25bp 인하를 기대하며 인하 시 중소형·가치주가 금리 민감도로 인해 수혜를 받을 것으로 봄. 어제 러셀 지수 상승과 빅테크 외 종목 강세를 로테이션의 시작으로 해석.
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the June PPI coming in above hotter than expected uh after yesterday's negative CPI print joining us now on the markets Jeremy Professor it's good to see you said that uh that you we won't see a rotation into small stocks and value stocks until uh it becomes clear the fed's going to cut and that the CPI said this before it came out could be a game changer that's exactly what happened you saw what happened with the Russell yesterday now what is this three steps forward two steps back what what did the PPI say to you well I I I think it's four steps forward and maybe one step back uh there's a few components here that do go into the pce and it's going to take a little while to to sus that out but I I I think that the CPI was a game changer and yeah I mean it was last Friday uh for Scott watman uh closing bell that exactly what I said and I I think the FED should definitely cut uh I mean Not only was it great inflation news on the CPI Which is far more important than than the PPI but let's look at jobless claims now it joess claims were good this week but don't forget they reported the week of July 4th which uh you know uh is is always distorted I'm really looking at it next week because we've been on an upward Trend uh not only on claims we've been in an upward trend on the unemployment rate um you know when we hit uh 4.1% we hit the so-called s rule which says that if the three-month moving average goes up uh a half a percent which it did on the last Labor report the probability of recession is very high now I'm not calling for recession but I'm saying that that is on the fed's radar so I'm looking at that uh I think he's teeing up a cut um I'm just hoping that he'll cut fast enough that he won't go too slow on the way down the way we know he went far too slow on the way up so my concern is not that he's going to you know cut too much but he he might cut too slowly but the data will tell us what what the judgment is you don't think before September no unless we get a big deterioration I mean I'm trying to think that July 31st is the meeting so uh we get uh maybe one two uh jobless claims no other really important indicators so no he's far too deliberate but it'll be a teup I think you know saying we we now see the conditions in place for a cut if the data continue to move in the direction that we are seeing at the current time um of course the cut is expected to be 25 basis points but you know there's six weeks until that next meeting and we'll see whether uh he is compelled to do more at that time but that's my expectation for the joy 31st meeting so not just inflation but suddenly the uh what we're seeing down the economy because it looks like this this half is going at less than 2% yeah you know we were originally excited about you know last year way above expectations we uh the FED expected over 2% for 2024 well the first half is looks like under 2% and uh you know that's below fed target so uh there's there's many many reasons he himself said don't go we're not going down to two waiting for the you know CPI to go down to two before we cut that far far too late what was really encouraging finally that rental component which you know I've talked about so often is so lagged in the CPI finally started coming in lower and uh hopefully that'll continue to happen in coming months to keep that CPI rate uh in line so the other mandates now just as important it used to be inflation now you got to look at both and the claims uh number is one way to see it uh every week the the rotation we saw yesterday does that continue you think the NASDAQ is ready for a breather do you think you're going to see a move into just the breath will improve smaller uh company stocks will go up value will go up now that that was the beginning of something yesterday it it uh you know and the reason is is that small firms are are so much more sensitive to the short-term interest rate which the FED sets um you know they the you know it used to be called Liber now it's called Sofer they they pay the short rate plus uh 200 basis points and all their inventories a lot of their borrowings are due to that a lot of the big companies you know either pay through Equity or or fixed in Long rates long time ago it's those firms are going to be the most helped by lowering interest rates of the fed and I think that's what stock Pickers saw yesterday and uh you know unless we get you know some you know bad news to the contrary on inflation or too fast an economy uh you know that it could be that yesterday marks a shift finally uh in uh the big Tech stocks versus the rest of the market I mean I've never seen anything 400 stocks go up in the S&P and the S&P goes down um that that that's that's something that uh you don't see very often if
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