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방송은 어제 나스닥이 크게 밀린 뒤 현재는 반등해 모든 종목이 상승 중이라고 전했다. 필라델피아 반도체 지수는 6월 중순 연초 대비 106.6% 상승에서 27.2%로 상승폭이 줄었다. 어제 하루 마이크론과 AMD는 17% 넘게 하락했고 엔비디아는 9.5% 내렸다. 패널들은 신규 민주당 주지사와 주 의회가 AI 데이터센터 확장을 늦출 수 있다는 정치 리스크를 언급했지만, 이를 중단이 아닌 속도 조절로 보았다. 레버리지가 높은 롱숏 헤지펀드의 디레버리징이 어제 급락의 원인으로 지목됐다. 한 패널은 반도체 조정이 AI 투자 둔화를 반영한 이익 대비 적정 가격 조정일 수 있으며, 엔비디아의 선행 이익 배수가 약 14배 수준이라고 설명했다. 반면 다른 분석가들은 매도가 아직 끝나지 않았다고 보았다.
다듬은 글
SEE HOW ALL THIS GETS PROCESSED IN THE COMING WEEK. SAFE TRAVELS HOME. LET'S GET TO THE JUDGE. THANK YOU CARL. THANKS. WELCOME TO THE HALFTIME REPORT. I'M SCOTT WAPNER FRONT AND CENTER THIS HOUR. THE LATEST ON THIS TECH TRADE. YES IT'S TRYING TO REBOUND TODAY. MANY QUESTIONS THOUGH STILL REMAIN. WHICH MEANS WE DISCUSS AND DEBATE ALL OF THAT WITH THE INVESTMENT COMMITTEE.
JOINING ME FOR THE HOUR TODAY, JENNY HARRINGTON, JIM LEBENTHAL, KEVIN SIMPSON AND BRIAN BELSKI. ALL RIGHT. LET'S CHECK THE MARKET. THAT'S WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW. SO THE NASDAQ LOOKS GREAT. AGAIN. IT WAS DOWN SO MUCH YESTERDAY THAT IT'S STILL WORKING HARD TO GET A GOOD PORTION OF THAT BACK. EVERYTHING IS GREEN AT THE MOMENT.
IT WAS THE WORST DAY FOR THE STOCKS. THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX SINCE THE VERY EARLY DAYS. OF THE. COVID OUTBREAK. TO GIVE YOU SOME PERSPECTIVE. AND I THOUGHT CHARLES SCHWAB TODAY HAD SOME MORE PERSPECTIVE THAT WAS OF A DEEPER CONVERSATION. THEY POINT OUT IN MID JUNE, THE FILLY SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX WAS UP BY 106.6% YEAR TO DATE.
THAT WAS MID JUNE. THAT GAIN HAS NOW BEEN CUT TO 27.2. THAT SHOWS YOU HOW MUCH DAMAGE HAS BEEN DONE WITHIN THE CHIPS. YESTERDAY ALONE, MICRON AMD DOWN MORE THAN 17%. DOUBLE DIGIT LOSSES ALMOST ACROSS THE BOARD. NVIDIA DOWN 9.5%. IT'S NEGATIVE ON THE YEAR AT LEAST. IT DID GO NEGATIVE YESTERDAY. FARMER JIM I'M GOING TO GO TO YOU FIRST BECAUSE YOU HAD TRIED TO REMAIN NEGATIVE I MEAN POSITIVE EXCUSE ME.
FREUDIAN SLIP. IT'S A FREUDIAN SLIP. I WAS THINKING OF HIS. I WAS THINKING OF HIS FLINCHES AND IT MADE ME THINK OF WAS HE GOING TO FLINCH AGAIN? NO, SERIOUSLY. YEAH. NO, NO. WHAT ARE YOU THINKING? I KNEW SOMETHING WAS WACKY. WHEN. WHEN JENNY'S WAVING TO PEOPLE WHO ARE BOY SCOUTS. THEIR BOY SCOUTS, MY SON'S BOY SCOUT.
I KNOW IF YOU NOTICE THAT WE'RE ON THE WIDE SHOT. I KNOW, BUT IT'S LIKE A WHOLE TROOP OF BOY SCOUTS GOING BY, AND I HAVE A SOFT SPOT IN MY HEART FOR. I KNEW SOMETHING WAS WACKY WHEN JENNY TURNED BULLISH LAST WEEK, BUT. I WASN'T BULLISH. YEAH, YOU WERE. PRETTY BULLISH. WE CAN TRACK THE TAPE, BUT I WANT TO HEAR FROM JIM.
FIRST. LET'S TRY TO CUT THROUGH A LOT OF THE UNCERTAINTY THAT'S OUT THERE. A COUPLE OF THINGS WENT ON YESTERDAY. FIRST OFF THERE WERE LEGITIMATE CONCERNS. I'M NOT GOING TO CALL THEM FEARS. BUT CONCERNS ABOUT WHAT NEW DEMOCRATIC GOVERNORS AND STATE LEGISLATURES WILL DO TO SLOW DOWN THE AI DATA CENTER BUILD OUT, AND THEY WILL SLOW IT DOWN.
I THINK IT'S HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THEY'RE GOING TO STOP IT, BECAUSE DOING SO WILL CERTAINLY TURN THE US ECONOMY INTO RECESSION, RESULT IN TREMENDOUS JOB LOSSES AND A DECIMATION OF THE TAX BASES FOR THESE NEWLY ELECTED POLITICIANS. SO I DON'T THINK STOPPING IT IS WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT. WE'RE TALKING ABOUT SLOWING IT DOWN, WHICH, FRANKLY, CURES THE PRISONER'S DILEMMA THAT MANY OF THESE HYPERSCALERS HAVE BEEN IN FOR MANY MONTHS OF ARE THEY GOING TO BE, SCOTT, THE FIRST ONES TO FLINCH IN TERMS OF CAPITAL SPENDING?
NOW, THEY DON'T HAVE TO BE LABELED WITH THAT. THE POLITICIANS WILL DO IT FOR THEM. NOW, THAT'S NUMBER ONE. THAT'S A LEGITIMATE CONCERN. BUT I ACTUALLY THINK IT'S A POSITIVE. I'M NOT ALONE IN SAYING THAT. BUT WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY WAS MORE THAN THAT ON THE DESK. WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THIS MANY TIMES OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
SCOTT, YOU'VE MADE REFERENCES TO THIS, THE DELEVERAGING THAT WAS GOING ON, PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHLY LEVERED LONG, SHORT HEDGE FUND SPACE. AND YESTERDAY THE TRUTH CAME OUT AND IT WAS UGLY. A LOT OF REALLY WELL-KNOWN NAMES WERE DOWN BIG IN OCTOBER, CONTINUING INTO NOVEMBER, AND THEY AT THE LEAST UNWOUND THEIR POSITIONS, WHICH RESULTED IN A DELUGE OF SELLING.
AND IN SOME CASES, THEY ACTUALLY SHUTTERED PODS OR THE ENTIRE FIRM. THAT IS WHAT CONTRIBUTED A LOT TO YESTERDAY. NOW, I AM NOT SAYING THAT THAT'S IT AND IT'S OVER. BUT WHAT I AM SAYING IS THE POSITIVES OF STRONG LABOR MARKETS, STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH, STRONG PROFIT GROWTH ARE LIKELY TO PROPEL THE MARKETS HIGHER AFTER WE GET THROUGH A WEEK OR TWO OF THIS POST-ELECTION POST.
DELEVERING VOLATILITY. SO I THINK IT'S INTERESTING YOU CHOSE IN LARGE RESPECTS TO FOCUS ON THE HYPERSCALERS IN YOUR ANALYSIS OF WHAT THE DATA CENTER BACKLASH AND THE RESULTS OF THE MIDTERMS WILL MEAN WHEN THE MARKET IS CLEARLY FOCUSED ON OTHER AREAS THAT ARE MORE ACUTE TO THE QUESTION ITSELF, LIKE THE SEMIS, RIGHT?
YES. AND THE POWER NAMES. YES. ARE YOU AND YOU DON'T THINK THAT WHAT'S HAPPENING THERE MAKES SOME DEGREE OF SENSE IF YOU'RE GOING TO. OH, I THINK IT DOES MAKE SENSE. I THINK I THINK WHAT WE SAW AND WHAT YOU ALLUDED TO WITH THE CHARLES SCHWAB, I THINK THAT WAS WHO MADE IT, THE COMMENT THAT THE SOX WAS UP 100% PLUS THROUGH JUNE AND NOW IS ONLY UP 27%.
THE MARKET WAS SNIFFING THIS OUT WELL IN ADVANCE. I MEAN, YES, YESTERDAY'S DECLINES IN MICRON IN NVIDIA WERE BREATHTAKING, CERTAINLY, BUT THEY WERE AND MAY BE THE FINAL THROES OF A CORRECTION. MORE THAN A CORRECTION A BEAR MARKET IN THOSE SEMICONDUCTORS THAT NOW PRICES THEM APPROPRIATELY FOR EARNINGS.
THAT MAY WELL HAVE TO COME DOWN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS GIVEN A SLOWDOWN IN THE AI BUILD OUT. BUT THESE VALUATIONS NOW WE'RE LOOKING AT NVIDIA I BELIEVE 14 TIMES FORWARD EARNINGS. I BELIEVE MICRON MAYBE LOWER FOUR TIMES EARNINGS. YEAH. NOW MAYBE THESE EARNINGS ARE GOING TO COME DOWN MAYBE OKAY. BUT THESE ARE MULTIPLES THAT ARE NOW EXPRESSING SENTIMENT.
THAT IS SIMPLY IN MY OPINION FAR TOO NEGATIVE. SO BELSKY THERE ARE SO MANY DIFFERENT PEOPLE OPINING ON THE DESTRUCTION THAT TOOK PLACE YESTERDAY. CHRIS HARVEY CIBC SELL OFF IS NOT OVER YET, SAYS VOLUMES WEREN'T ELEVATED ENOUGH. BELIEVE IT OR NOT. RIGHT YESTERDAY WAS PRETTY BRUTAL, HE SAID. IT STILL WASN'T ENOUGH.
MIKE WILSON HAS BEEN SAYING, LOOK, THE MARKET NEEDED TO GET THROUGH A CLEARING EVENT, HAVE SORT OF ONE MORE MEANINGFUL PULLBACK, AND THEN THAT COULD BE THE END OF THE CORRECTION. HE SAYS. THIS IS LIKELY THE FINAL STAGES OF THAT. THERE WAS AN INTERESTING UBS NOTE SORT OF THROWING COLD WATER ON THE THE REBOUND THAT WE WERE SEEING IN THE FUTURES THIS MORNING, REALLY POINTING OUT TO SOME OF THE DELEVERAGING THAT'S STILL NEEDED TO TAKE PLACE, PARTICULARLY FROM QUANT FUNDS WHO WERE STILL HIGHLY EXPOSED TO THIS TRADE, WHICH GOT SO OVERWHELMINGLY CROWDED ON MANY DIFFERENT LEVELS THAT THERE WAS STILL SOME MORE TO WORK THROUGH.
HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW RELATIVE TO WHAT WE WITNESSED YESTERDAY? I THINK THE MIKE WILSON NOTE IS BRILLIANT. IT'S BRILLIANT IN TERMS OF THE CATCH DOWN, BECAUSE I REALLY THINK THAT'S WHAT'S HAPPENING, PER JIM'S POINT, AND TALKING ABOUT THE INDICES. AND THEN FOLLOWING BACK ON THE SCHWAB COMMENT, IT'S REALLY INTERESTING.
OCTOBER WAS A BAD MONTH. SOME OF THESE NAMES ARE ALREADY STARTING TO BREAK IN OCTOBER. WE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT YOU SAW THAT. YOU SAW THE ROLLER COASTER. YOU'RE LOOKING OVER THE EDGE. AND OH, BY THE WAY, YESTERDAY WAS THIS ON THE WAY DOWN? SO IS IT ENOUGH YESTERDAY IF YOU TAKE A LOOK AT UPSIDE VERSUS DOWNSIDE VOLUME.
DOWNSIDE VOLUME WAS 5 TO 1. USUALLY IN THESE TYPES OF DAYS YOU NEED LIKE AN EIGHT OR 10 TO 1. AND SO I HATE IT WHEN PEOPLE LOSE MONEY. TODAY WOULD BE I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED, QUITE FRANKLY, IF THE IF THE MARKET TURNS NEGATIVE ON A FRIDA
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