저자: Mike/Jonathan · 외국인
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결론: 두 출연자는 수요견인 인플레이션을 우려하지만, 소비 급증은 일시적이라 장기 인플레이션으로 이어지진 않는다고 본다. 인플레이션 유형 구분: 원가상승형(cost push)은 당장 위험이 작다고 봄. 목재 가격 상승에도 PulteGroup·Lennar 등 주택업체가 마진을 줄이며 가격전가를 억제하고 있다는 근거를 듦. 수요견인 인플레이션 우려: 블랙록 래리 핑크(운용자산 8.6조달러)가 사상 최대 대기자금이 주식시장을 끌어올릴 것이라 한 발언을 반박. 시장은 이미 S&P500·다우가 올라 대부분 투자된 상태라고 봄. 소비 패턴 전망: 봉쇄 후 억눌린 수요가 여행·외식·디즈니랜드·항공 등 경험 소비로 몰리며 항공사 등이 가격을 올릴 것으로 예상. 2차대전 후 GI빌 사례처럼 공급이 따라잡기 전까지 물가가 오를 수 있으나 일회성. 연준 전망: 연준이 2023년까지 금리를 올리지 않겠다는 입장은 현실성이 낮다고 봄. 수요 급증이 가시화되면 연준이 예상보다 일찍 대응해야 한다고 언급. 바이마르 비교: 바이마르 독일식 돈 풀기는 하이퍼인플레이션을 낳았지만, 현재는 억눌린 수요 해소라 성격이 다르다고 구분. 디플레이션 요인: 자동화, 대규모 실업, 코로나19 등 디플레이션 압력이 상존하며 대규모 부양책이 이를 상쇄했다고 평가. 자산 가격과 불평등: 막대한 부양자금이 이미 자산을 가진 부유층의 자산가격을 올려 자산 격차와 중산층-부유층 간 격차를 키운다고 우려. 정책 방향이 이를 악화시켰다고 비판. 2021년 성장 전망: 2021년 GDP 성장률이 6% 이상일 가능성을 언급. 저점에서의 반등 효과로 설명하며, 성장은 필요하지만 자영업 폐업 회복에는 시간이 걸린다고 봄. 분기별 흐름: 2분기가 1분기보다, 3분기가 2분기보다 나을 것으로 보며 2021년은 '기분이 나아지는 해'가 될 것이라 전망. 다만 아직 위기를 완전히 벗어나지 않았다고 신중히 평가. 종목·자산 직접 언급 및 방향 예측 없음. 거시 전망 중심 대화.
다듬은 글
hey everyone as mentioned in episode number two near the end we're going to talk about inflation because i think jonathan and i are both at least a little bit concerned about it uh as somebody who has an econ degree and a master's in business i i am worried about one type and not the other uh so how you doing this morning jonathan i'm doing great and i'm eager to hear what you have to say about inflation so yeah i really think let's get into it usually as an economist you you fall into one of these camps canyonism keynesianism you know labor all of these i've always been worried about the consumer right the consumer is some odd 70 percent of our economy uh i believe we if you follow the consumer you can see what's going on so i believe in what's called demand pull inflation just so we get the other one out of the way the other one is called cost push inflation again inflation is basically the rise or the decrease in purchasing power right the rise in prices you know lower purchasing power cost push to get out of the way is basically hey it cost me more to do this so i have to raise prices to maintain margin and us prices go up we have not seen that in a long time in fact just to you know in the in the current environment right everybody has probably seen if you're in real estate lumber costs have gone up and what we have seen from pulte homes and lennar and all these folks is they're shrinking their margins right not they're not passing on all of that cost some of that could be because they see it as a short term blip they've hedged it out whatever it is so i don't see cost push inflation being a risk going forward however demand pull inflation frankly scares me the more i think about it and the reason i freaked out about it is because every time i turn around and it happened again this morning with blackrock's ceo larry fink he manages 8.6 trillion dollars he said we think the stock market's going to go up because of the record amount of cash on the sidelines i think this is going to be a debate because what larry is basically saying is the cash on the sideline is afraid and when people feel better they're going to buy investments they're going to buy stocks i'm like i don't think so maybe at the margin people seem to be fully invested now have you not looked at the s p and the dow buddy uh what i think is going to happen is we are going to go out and buy a lot of experiences i mean back in in april or may we talked i talked about china buying luxury goods because they felt like they deserved it they sacrificed for being locked up for 90 days or whatever it was locked down for 90 days so my suspicion is we are going to buy experiences we are going to travel where we are you know we are going to spend that money like drunken sailors and if that happens that it's kind of like when the soldiers came back from world war ii right we had this flood of capital the gi bill all of these things and we weren't ready the supply wasn't there and thus prices went up so that that concerns me and if that happens it will be impossible for the fed or treasury or government to hide because we will be seeing it in front of us and then the fed will have to react earlier than 2023 i think it's a joke that the fed says they're not going to raise rates until 2023 but that's what i'm concerned about i'm concerned about demand pull inflation because we are going to spend like consumers always do well so i would say though to that that the the good thing about this i guess if there's a good thing about it is that it's not like permanently long-term inflation because because as soon as like people get that burst of like pant up demand out of their system it's kind of over now you're you're now at a new higher level of prices for everything but you're not it's not like continuing to accelerate well let's play with that a little bit because i like where you went with that i did not think that but i think it's going to be a little bit more circular or repetitive than you think because again what else do we have besides record record cash we also both know that we have unemployment that is not 6.6 or 6.7 or whatever and we're going to have all of those returning workers who are now being flushed with cash and they're going to be want to part b be part of this as well but but again like but then like if if markets still work then the supply will catch up with the demand right so there'll be a period of time where you know sure you can't you can't like like we talked about in the last segment it's i think it's it's going to be around those experiences and not so much about buying stuff although and clearly for people who were unemployed and they both you know if it's a two-earner family and they're both unemployed obviously those people have not been spending a lot of money so they may go out and be buying more stuff but uh but i think there's going to be a lot of people who like you like we said before who are going to run out and they're going to be you know going to disneyland they'll be hopping on planes they're going to be doing all that stuff that they haven't been able to do for for some time um and that will cause prices to rise because you know the producers of these experiences which are limited only so many people can go you know get on a plane get on a plane right the airlines will jack up prices right because they'll know that they can do it um but i i think like that kind of inflation if it's from real demand and it's really not a problem it's a problem when it's like you take an economy that's at full employment and you just dump helicopter money on people and now they have more money to spend on the same stuff right that's that's that's where you really have like like when when come when the con and this is like being the essay like weimar germany they tried to grow the economy by pumping money into the system right right and they and all they did was create hyperinflation right because that's not the situation that i think we're talking about right now where people have been it's more like it's pent up demand right which is which is a good thing right that kind of gets economies that's what kick-started the recovery after world war you know oh for sure finally got us out of the depression right it was like yeah like people people once the war started we had full employment overnight but people couldn't spend their money on anything so because you know everything was going into the war effort so then they had all these savings and when it all ended then they were able to run out and buy washing machines but it took time for the all the factories to retool from war production to consumer goods so there was that so there was high inflation for a while but it all caught up and then we went back to low inflation so i i'm not as worried about that kind of consumer inflation honestly as as you are especially because i think that that the uh you know we've had a lot of deflationary forces at work for quite some time like automation like uh you know this huge unemployment right the coronavirus is a deflationary thing right with that if we didn't have all the stimulus we would you know be in the worst depression in history right he would have made the great depression look like child's play right so um so there's been all that money pumped into the system as like a as a counter deflationary force right which you think is blunted by the deflation so i'm not i'm not as concerned about that kind of stuff like people consumer goods like i think that'll sort of work itself out because the supply will catch up you know everybody will go out to the rest you know there'll be people who will eat out every night for a month yeah and then and then they'll and then they'll be like oh my god i feel like yeah and i'm gonna like i gotta go like you know eat healthy at home for a while right so like i think there'll be that spike and it's great that'll get people working again that'll like draw people back into the economy and yes there may be some inflation but i'm not really worried about that i i continue more to be worried about like what happens when you when you take you know like you give billions of dollars to billionaires to go spend on like more assets right yeah that's and that's what we've all that's what we've been seeing and it just it means that asset prices you know if you've got if you if you've got the assets you're you're happy if you don't have them it get it makes that kind of like wealth creation avenue very difficult for people to access and just exacerbates you know the in the inequality yeah and the wealth gap gets bigger yeah yeah and we're not even just talking about like the wealth gap between like the rich you know the very rich and the very poor like i'm talking about the wealth gap between the very rich and like the middle class or even the affluent or the upper middle class i agree where you have and i think frankly a lot of like the political moment that we're in where people are so angry isn't just about like the working class losing ground it's like everybody losing ground to like the super wealthy because of government policy right so uh so and there's a lot of anxiety and fear and and angst and and you know anger about that so um and that's that's what happens just dump all this that's why when we're talking the previous segment about how i would do you know if we have another uh pandemic how i would address it differently i would not address it by handing over billions to people who already have billions and don't need the billions right totally agree so yeah i i'm curious in this segment the other thing i you know i don't recall a time and i didn't actually go back and look but i don't recall a time where the u.s at least in my lifetime which started in the 70s has had a gdp growth for the year of north of six percent i don't recall a time i haven't looked but i don't recall one uh i think we're going to be north of six percent in 2021 but it's i mean we may well be but it's it's just like you've said many times before like when you're building off a low base agreed you know it's easier to to grow fast but i i do i mean i think look you shut down the economy you have you know and then you turn the spigot back on again like just it's gonna it's gonna grow fast right yeah no and that's a good thing i think we need to grow fast i think we need to grow it would be sad and unfortunate if after all this i know what you want to call it stimulus life support investment whatever you want to call it if we only grew at two or three percent that would be sad we need that rush to bring that we do but i do think also i mean one of the things you know we've talked about it in the past we haven't talked about it today is the fact that all of those businesses that have gone out of business over the last year right they're not just going to spring back into action overnight right like we talked before about the new york city restaurants that have just mothballed themselves like those i think that's a you know that's a probably a pretty good strategy because they're saying okay we can we've got the cash reserves just to ride it out for a couple months so we're not going to go out of business then we can just start up again like all we got to do is basically come back into the restaurant clean everything give it a good cleaning and then we're ready to go but if if for all the businesses that went out of business it's not easy to start up a business again from scratch right so that's going to take time and to get all those people rehired for the businesses that are gone is going to take time so for the businesses that have set themselves up just to restart that's that's different but the businesses that are that have disappeared completely that's a lot of people that need to find completely new jobs or start completely new businesses and um so it it could take a while to reabsorb all those yup workers again yeah and again i think again i stand by the fact that i think q2 is better than q1 q3 is better than q2 i think that's just a i think we're going to i think 2021 is going to be the year of feeling better right if the year of 2020 was feeling worse and worse 21's feeling better uh and and uh i'm excited by what's coming well i sure hope so i mean i i think there there has been i mean there's a lot of reasons to feel optimistic but we're not but we're not out of the woods no absolutely well thank you very much jonathan always fun talking to you buddy you too take care mike
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