저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2020년 5월 19일 상원 은행위원회의 므누신 재무장관·파월 연준의장 증언 2시간 43분을 요약. 민주당(브라운, 리드, 워런 등)은 필수노동자·실업수당 연장·지방정부 해고 방지 등 추가 부양을 요구했고, 공화당(투미 등)은 재정 지출 절제를 강조. 파월은 추가 재정 필요성과 실업 장기화 시 영구적 손상 위험을 강조하며, 연준 대차대조표(약 7조 달러) 확대는 GDP 대비로 봐야 하고 현 시점에서 인플레이션·재정 안정성 우려는 아니라고 언급. 중소기업 자금 고갈 가능성과 중산층 세금 감면 검토 언급도 포함.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Kevin here I just went through 2 hours and 43 minutes of all of the testimony from Treasury secretary Steve minutia and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell with the Senate Banking Committee so that we could get insights and all the bottom lines in one simple place here on what we should expect for the next stimulus package of some updates regarding the current stimulus package like the eid el the PPP ideas about tax cuts and stimulus and talk about the economy so let's just get right into it and give you the bottom lines oh and by the way if you want something to do while you listen to me you break all of these fun facts down about tax cuts and the next stimulus plan of the things that are coming up and talking about debt and inflation make sure to use this time wisely of course sign up for life insurance because if you're like many of us who are wondering like I know I need life insurance but I don't know what to get go to the link down below see how much it's gonna cost you to have you know $100,000 policy 500k policy million dollar policy they're issuing these policies during the pandemic which i think is crazy but ok check it out and you know with shop later but at least have something alright folks let's get into the content we start with Senator Brown a Democrat he rails on these guys and starts off with look essential workers are getting left behind we want money in workers pocket it doesn't appear that this administration or the Federal Reserve are making workers their priority so we continues on with this and goes what what do you think about this essentially is it fair that essential workers are getting paid so little Treasury secretary Treasury secretary Steve munition kind of diverted an answer on this and to this Jerome Powell says hey look you know we're doing all the things we can to create conditions to get people back to work and he mentions hey you know what we need is pandemic pay for workers you're giving trillions of dollars to corporations how many people should die to raise the GDP or the Dow Jones a thousand points just somewhat of a slam on Trump here because Trump frequently refers to oh the Dow is up a thousand points you know we're doing great Treasury secretary Steve manoosh into this as well I was in Senate the morning with a mask I assure you were following the best medical advice and the senator cuts them off and says I'm not gonna let you make a political statement I'm like oh this is starting out kind of interesting for a hearing but okay so then we go to Senator Pat Toomey a Republican and he tries to kind of take what Jerome Powell said last week out of context here Jerome Powell will remember last week says that he thinks Congress needs to do more and that we need to be aggressive to support the economy and prevent long-lasting damage Pat Toomey here says well you know I think chairman Powell when he said that Congress needs to do more you know I think he means that we need a more nuanced approach that we need to be mindful of our spending do you still stand by your original comment Chairman Jerome Powell and Powell responds with I do would you like me to expand senator and you think Jerome Powell is kind of catching on like I'm about to contradict you do you want me to keep going here and Pat Toomey is like I think we've covered that so let's move on it starts talking about hospitals and I'm like oh that's pretty big because that's a big signal right here that Jerome Powell is and I'm not suggesting that he's like Pro Democrat or Pro Republican but it seems pretty clear that your own Powell's Pro a spending more money and Pat Toomey tried to basically bait Jerome Powell into saying yeah yeah let's be mindful of our spending we can wait and see and drone Pyles like ah that's not what I believe I stand by what I said that Congress needs to do more do you want me to expand oh no no that's okay whoo so it's pretty clear what we've got right Democrats in the federal reserve going more stimulus helped the economy the presidential cabinet going hey we're open to more checks but let's wait and see Treasury secretary let's wait and see and Republicans we got to be mindful of spending let's keep going on here to see what we've got for example Jack Reed a Democrat says the unemployment insurance programs will end they've got an ending date here coming up do you think it's important to extend these or have like stabilizers where unemployment insurance payments automatically get made if we're at a certain level of unemployment like this unemployment assurance or insurance payments program that's $600 per week program that's expiring Jerome Powell says well I will say that long periods of unemployment can really affect people's ability to go back to work anything that helps keep people intact hopefully their job but in the meantime keep them out of insolvency aka bankruptcy those are appropriate things to look at so drums like yeah I mean like it's really a question for the fiscal authorities aka Congress but yeah extending unemployment is an appropriate thing to look at okay then Jack Reed goes on to say hey look unless we have a fiscal program that provides resources so that people can basically keep making their mortgage payments and paying their rent aka more stimulus relief you know what's gonna happen is people are going to make their payments and then he says quote that'll put pressure on the mortgage community and you and the Fed and the Treasury will rush in Wall Street will get help and Main Street won't aka the people won't get help and Jerome Powell says I think you're right waves of foreclosure can undermine household finances so in this case you know we have significant forbearance that's something to continue and he kind of suggests how important it is to have you know this forbearance program kind of continue and sort of support again so drum Powell really sort of reiterating here we're gonna get to some other things here that start getting a little juicy s as well so we got a Senator Menendez a Democrat who says look if states and counties continue to lay off employees from you know an economic point of view doesn't that make the economic recovery worse and Jerome Powell says essentially yes we have evidence from the great financial crisis that or the global financial crisis the GFC that the years after where state and local layoffs happen and a lack of hiring happened and that these things weighed on the economy so this is interesting because drum Powell saying look it's it's not just layoffs it's not just people getting laid off not having their job to go back to which remember 91 percent of people who are getting laid off think they have a job to go back to yet research shows that 42% of them won't have a job to go back to which is back and it's not just layoffs though it's also companies not hiring as much and that's really going to weigh on the economy and so this is where you can clearly see Jerome suggesting again hey we've got to focus on propping this economy up now we'll talk about dead in a moment because obviously that comes up and it's a substantial and reasonable question what about debt what about inflation that'll come up in just a moment so then we get into here we've got a senator Elizabeth Warren this she gets a little feisty here with Treasury secretary Steve minutia at first she starts with can you speak about the long-term scars if we don't take aggressive action Jerome Powell says there's clear evidence of that it could be permanent and way on the economy for large equally with small and medium businesses it could quote destroy the work of families and generations that is if basically Congress and the government don't do enough if we do too little if we understood you're destroying what families have built and and people have worked for for generations when as she points or starts hitting on Treasury Secretary Steven ocean she starts off with Steve monition you said the jobs numbers will improve better in the third quarter better in the fourth quarter and next year is going to be a great year remember this is very typical of sort of the political filter that we hear both sides have the political filter of course but anyway does this mean you'll require companies to keep workers on payroll this is actually in my opinion a reasonable question she's like hey you know like if y'all gonna bail out companies are you gonna make the companies keep people employed uh and and I kind of get both POVs like that makes sense that seems reasonable if you're gonna get bailouts like what's happening in the United Kingdom or Germany where the government's coming in saying hey look we'll pay 80 percent of everybody's payroll just don't fire anybody don't lay off anybody well the u.s.
is totally the opposite the u.s. is like uh her laying off three thousand people Oh will lay off on a thousands people over here oh I'm you know United Airlines I will shift you know a thousands of people to part-time and moment from full-time employment it's like like at the drop of a hat companies can cut in America and that is one of the things in a good economy that makes our country great that sort of dynamic nosov but it's really bad in times like this but I also get that the Treasury Department and governments they don't want to be too restrictive with their loan programs although you know if they're loose with big companies why are they so restrictive with the PPP loan and small companies it's kind of messed up you know it's hard for small businesses to deal with a the PPP loan an 11-page forgiveness application so you know the whole things just a little bit messed up but anyway she goes on to say that while Treasury Secretary Stephen ushion responds and says look I said I think the numbers will get worse before they get better juda will be difficult and it's our intent to fulfill everything like all of our loan facilities and follow the law and do what we're supposed to do and she replies and says no that's not quite right the law gives you the Treasury the specific authority to determine the terms at which these loans are made for corporations so simple question you say the economy will recover they're going to that's going to take jobs are you going to require companies to keep people on payroll Steve minutia says well our number-one objective is keeping people employed and we negotiated restrictions on employee compensation dividends and buybacks which by the way applies to like the executives and the big corporations right now and in Main Street lending we have a provision that people use their best efforts to support jobs this is where she she rails right into him wait what you're saying no requirements for payroll in any facility except in Main Street lending and there you have a commercial reasonable effort to be able to maintain jobs so basically corporations can fire a bunch of people or it doesn't work out commercially and then they can fire people so I take it your answer to my question is no that is the Treasury doesn't require people or corporations not fire people if they take bailouts essentially and Treasury secretary goes on well you know we kind of talked about this with people on both any kind of diverts well you know this is what Democrats and Republicans decide I don't blame him for that response he got put into a really hard spot there because that doesn't look good so you know then we you know she says look you're in charge of half a trillion dollars and your this was this was harsh okay you're in charge of half a trillion and you're boosting your Wall Street buddies and you're leaving America behind who you know to that he says I think that's a very unfair characterization these issues were discussed bubble blob okay you know interesting it kind of just shows this divisive 'no stands up oh this device it is well it's not good okay that's not really good for the next stimulus package so what else we have here then a senator Perdue a Republican this is about debt this is fascinating too he goes look you know before the crisis we were able to roll down the Fed's balance sheet from five trillion dollars to three point eight trillion now we're at seven trillion today and it could go north of 14 trillion how do you put this genie back in the bottle how do you pay off the debt how confident are you that we can handle this - which Jerome Powell says well over time this debt will roll off and will basically pay it off over time and Jerome Powell clarifies that what matters is the size of the balance sheet relative to the economy so basically just saying oh it's seven trillion dollars it doesn't mean much it has to be related to the size of the economy and he says look before Jerome came in the balance sheet was at about 25 percent debt - the size of the economy they reduced it to about 16 to 17 percent well now it's obviously ballooning you know our GDP is just over 20 trillion dollars so if we had seven trillion dollars in essentially a debt or balance sheet debt with the Fed well then that means we're at about thirty five percent debt to the size of our economy which is obviously larger than we started with but what was really fascinating is he says right now in the mean time quote it doesn't have implications to inflation or financial stability concerns today in time yes so that's actually very good Jerome Powell saying hey look in terms of the debt and inflation you don't have to be worried about that right now we can't do this forever in time it'll get paid off but now's not the time to worry about the debt so we're continually getting this sort of reiteration from Jerome Powell don't worry about the debt we got the money we have the capacity to spend we got to prevent avoidable bankruptcies we got to help the people we need more stimulus okay let's keep going on here so then we get senator Schatz says that look half of small businesses are going to run out of cash in a month do you see enough of a rebound to prevent thousands of businesses from going under Jerome Powell says we're going to see very quickly how the reopening goes basically no one knows until we kind of get the data but yeah we have to be prepared to do more this is good another sign from Jerome Powell that hate like we're ready to go and he also indicates that Congress needs to be ready to go too and the Treasury needs to be ready to go to help to this senator Thom Tillis a Republican actually says hey what about a reduction of the tax burden tax cuts for middle-class households and Treasury secretary Steve minuchin says I think that's something that should seriously be considered that's interesting because this is really the first time we've heard Treasury secretary Steve venusian come from the angle of yeah let's let's do tax breaks let's let's help I mean we've heard of like payroll tax cut and things like that but reduction of tax burden for middle-class households that's a big one that's a nice reveal right here then we get to Senator John Kennedy a Republican who says he thinks there's less than a 50% chance that this bill is going to pass and then Kyrsten Sinema a Democrat comes in and says hey look I sent you Treasury secretary Steve manoosh in a letter that remember the e IDL program that was supposed to give people like the small businesses over half of people who have side hustles and small businesses $10,000 within three business days of applying why did the SBA reduce that to 1 K per employee we want the full $10,000 per person who applies or per business that applies and so she kind of rails him on that which it's nice to see pressure on the e IDL still which Treasury secretary Steve minutia calls idle which I guess if you say Eid el it's idle but okay yeah so it's nice to see that pressure but Treasury secretary Steve minutiae kind of goes ah yeah I'll follow up on that so no real answers on that but hey there are some big things in here I mean we're talking tax cuts as something that was mentioned with the Treasury Department we're clearly seeing a substantial support from Jerome Powell for the economy he's saying we don't have to be worried about debt or inflation right now we don't have to be worried about financial stability and overall there's your summary of this meeting so if you like my kind of insights and summaries make sure to hit subscribe also check out my programs link e need to positive hundred dollars and then folks we'll see you next time
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