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2020년 5월 18일 파월 Fed 의장의 60 Minutes 인터뷰 내용을 정리하며, 경기 회복은 백신·방역에 달려 있고 실업 장기화로 인한 구조적 손상이 우려된다고 설명. 추가 재정부양(의회 몫)과 중소기업 파산 방지 필요성을 강조하며, 시장은 의료 데이터를 선반영 중이라는 해석을 제시. 발언 중 개별 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
released their transcript with Jerome Powell's interview on 60 minutes I have the transcript I've already broken it down I'm going to give you the most important information from updates regarding a stimulus the economy the markets what to watch what the expectations are for the market this is big now I encourage you to watch the entire 60 minutes interview but I'm going to give you some very important takeaways right here and I'm going to add my commentary to them let's get started I'm gonna go ahead and put this up on picture and picture as well here we go okay let's get started so the interview starts off with look when does the economy recover is the question and Jerome Powell makes this very clear look people are not going to be traveling going to restaurants and flying on planes until they can feel confident in the recovery and he believes the only way to do that is either a getting the virus under control or having some sort of vaccine I think that goes without saying but later in the interview he suggests that look you know looking at the economic data doesn't matter and that's actually really interesting because you know this is a Fed Reserve Chairman saying the economic data isn't what's important right now what's actually more important right now is the medical data because the longer this virus lasts the harder it is for our economy to recover so all of the economic data is in the past the medical data is like up-to-date info on what you should expect for the stock market for the economy and everything that's why it's kind of like as soon as we started as a nation flattening the curve the stock market's going up and it's like what the economic got is so bad yeah but flattening the curve the stock market's picking up on this as future data right anyway let's see what else he's saying here so many states are beginning to reopen do you consider the virus under control and Powell says well we'll see you know he actually recommends wearing masks in certain situations saying people have to protect themselves washing their hands but he thinks that over the next couple of months you're going to start seeing the beginnings of a recovery this is interesting let's see what else he says he does say I think though it will be a while before we really feel recovered and the interviewer says what is recovered and he says well certain parts of the economy you're going to bounce back and others are going to take a lot longer to recover things like travel entertainment and things are not going to recover until we have a full and effective vaccine they're just going to be a lot of people that won't go out and this makes a lot of sense then the interviewer s and your people tell you that millions of doses of a reasonable effective vaccine or how far away and to this Powell says look we're not experts and what we can say is what we're hearing is nobody's certain and I think this is kind of the common tors questions coming because Donald Trump is suggesting a vaccine at the end of the year we're gonna have millions of doses ready by the end of the year and keep in mind and this is not like trying to slam Trump or take sides or anything keep in mind Trump is getting gearing up here for an election I mean honestly what's kind of sad about this this whole thing and I mean if you know depending on which side you are I guess you might think it's great but realistically what's sad is that we're not having debates right where are the Biden Trump debates they're not happening and so Trump has a hundred percent basically reigned over the media right now which in some way is kind of what happened in the 2016 election again after you were gonna think that's great half are you gonna think that's terrible I'm not taking sides but this is interesting because Federer Jerome Powell chairman Jerome Powell is saying look it's highly uncertain realistically that we're going to have an effective vaccine millions of doses of that by the end of the year but we don't know and so the question then comes out what do you think do you think we're like a year away or we 18 months away any kind of dodge is that saying you know it's difficult to tell and you know the travel the sporting events and theaters and that they're gonna look at other things in fact he specifically asked what about like the airlines and he says look they'll look to alternative things mostly he kind of dodges Airlines totally here and he goes directly into sporting events and theaters will be doing more online performances and things like that totally ignores the question about the airline this right here who this is Jerome Powell say in the airline's oh I'm not gonna say because I'm not gonna swear on the channel but I think y'all know what I was gonna say yeah oops anyway so he goes on to say but I would just say this in the long run and even in the medium run you wouldn't want to bet against the American economy I mentioned that in a video this morning because they actually gave this part of the interview as an excerpt online it was like a 60-second interview or excerpt online because this is the full 60 minute you you so thinks you know it's all about how many measures people take to protect themselves and yeah I don't worry I'm getting to the stimulus check part by the way if you like kind of listening to me but you want something else to do remember you can still get two free stocks with weebo go to the link down below click the little button you could sign up for an account and get two free stocks of you deposit $100 while I'm saying this alright here's the big thing okay Dave well I mean one of the big things I've over the past few days referenced some of the reports that Jerome Powell has been reading and the reason you know I know what he's been reading is because he actually tells us what exactly what kind of reports he's been reading so I've been going through some of his reports like like this one right here which is the cost of job loss report this is a really good one and so I know these are some of the things that he's reading and some of the things that he's referencing and he references that essentially here when he says look there's a real risk that if people are out of work for long periods of time that their skills atrophy a little bit and they lose contact with the workforce this is something that shows up in the data the longer and deeper recessions tend to leave behind more damage to people's career and that weighs on the economy going forward to me that's really fascinating because it makes sense I mean as a real estate agent if I have a funnel of you know 50 clients this year but all of a sudden I lose contact with them over the next you know two months because everybody's on lockdown well all of a sudden I have to like re advertise my snowball of clients kind of melted a little bit because every client I sell a house to you know they might talk to me to two or three of their friends and I might get more clients write more sales lead to more sales it's kind of why they say success begets a success well lack of productivity or lack of success also begets a lack of productivity I hate like if you're declining a decline can be self-fulfilling and that's a little bit what he's saying here especially not only because you're losing contacts but your skills also weaken you know other people who are you know working out their skills basically studying online learning how to be a better real estate agent or whatever they're the ones who are going to come out ahead over those of us who are hanging out at home and look a lot of us are stuck at home like we can't learn how we can't do anything because we're on lockdown and that just sucks so here drone Powell is empathizing with look there's not much a lot of us can do you know we I can't drive a forklift better sitting here in my room you know for that person I would recommend do whatever you can to get a license you know be a licensed contractor or a lender or a real estate agent have like now's the time to kind of start a sign hustle okay like prep because you know I don't want you to go back thinking your job is gonna be there and then all of a sudden you know your boss is like oh we're downsizing or we've hired this robot over here it's gonna suck you know my brother-in-law well if I'm sure let's say this oh well my brother-in-law's company just laid off a bunch of people and none of them were expecting to get laid off it's not his company he works there the company he works for a lot of people were were unexpectedly laid off they didn't even see it coming and they're computer programmers like what yeah that's crazy okay let's see what else we got here oh yeah see look at this he says you could say the same thing about businesses small and medium-sized businesses are so important to this country and you know they we have basically he's saying if they have to go through a wave of avoidable insolvencies you know you've lost something and that's more than just a few businesses because he says small businesses are really the job creation machine of America and if we let these companies go bankrupt without more stimulus you're creating lasting damage to this economy and it will take some time to recover from it scary that that is real and scary all right so what do we got here okay we will see more layoffs over the next month the we've before this we were at the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years the lowest african-american unemployment rate ever and over the last ten years really towards the last year some more of the you know a minority communities had opportunities to get better jobs because here's what happens when the unemployment rate is like 3.5 percent there are more companies like we need to hire more people we need to hire more people and that means well I mean like there are more jobs available so that means people and potentially disadvantaged communities have an easier time getting a job so this Roni actually destroys that because you're basically taking 30 million people in unemployment and then the people who are just able to get better jobs like newer programmers or newer businesspeople or business owners or newer employees or employees who used to get discriminated against who are finally getting jobs like women and other minorities you know all of a sudden it's like this sucks like now these are the first people to get hit hard again that's not fair you know there's just nothing I can say about that other than this this disproportionately screws women one group and minorities and that sucks so this is exactly what Jerome Powell is saying we had low and moderate-income communities telling us that this was the best labor market and a type tight labor market what I just described means more opportunity but now the Roni rona actually hurts those communities worse in fact he goes on to say that they're going to release a report suggesting that women are being are the ones who were substantially hit hard on this and so to this the interviewer comes back and says is this like the second Great Depression is this what this is going to go down as and Jerome Powell says no he doesn't think so because we had a healthy economy going into this the financial system is still strong and the government's response has been good I think a lot of us would disagree with that because yeah sure the financial systems fine the big fat corporations are fine the people who have invested a bunch of money in assets are fine like look I'm fine I just did a video revealing you know my assets my stocks in my real estate portfolio you can watch it I bet and and that's just to try to help motivate you that there is light once we get through this crap but right now we have to be real here if everybody with everybody in the lower income threshold is bearing the brunt of this and the easiest way to help is by having more stimulus and we're gonna get to drone pawel suggesting essentially that in just a moment so let's keep moving on here so I think it's very plausible the economy will take some time to get back together activity is going to decline substantially in the second quarter and then he talks about the forex issue the forex issue is basically when you say okay the economy contracted 10% in the second quarter what people do is they annualize that rate and then they'll say oh the economy contracted at a 40% rate at an annualized rate it's kind of bad to multiply by four because this is such a short-term kind of impact and it's a sudden impact but anyway so he kind of mentions that Forex issue and to that the interviewer says 20% and Powell goes easily you know it could easily be in the 20s or 30s that's the number that I'm just referring to so in other words it's probably gonna be in the 30 to the 40 but I don't think it's gonna hit 40 but that annualized rates can be pretty bad for like the contraction of our economy you know I get 30% annualized contraction that's really bad Powell does not think we're going to get back to where we were at the end of last year this year oh here's the part see look at this the people who are getting hurt the most or the worst are the recently hired lowest paid people it's women to an extraordinary extent we're actually releasing a report tomorrow that shows that and we've heard this stat before that those who are making less than 40% of $40,000 a year 40% of them have lost jobs those are the people who are bearing the brunt of this that's F top honestly like it should be the I hate to say it because I own stocks but it should be the corporations that are getting screwed and and really right now it's the people that are getting screwed and it's so wrong Congress needs to do more and that's why he says here it may well be that the Fed has to do more and it may be that Congress has to do more and the reason we need to all do more is essentially to avoid longer-run damage to the economy he suggests then that we are a creature of Congress and they have oversight over us as the Fed and that I would say that policies that help businesses avoid avoidable insolvency and that they should do the same for individuals this is really blunt here and this is like fed speak but let me just simplify this basically he's saying yo Congress there are a bunch of people here that are going to go bankrupt and you can avoid it they're a bunch of businesses here that are gonna go bankrupt you can avoid it but but you're my daddy so justyou're my lips hear and talk through a filter that's basically what he's doing here okay but because I'm not the fed and I'm not working for Congress I could say that to you you know then he talks about how you know there was a flight to safety in March basically talking about why the market had crashed there but I mean this right here by the way is is a link this article rambling but this is a really big part of this because it really says look we need to hear it is in yellow to keep family solvent we need so that when this comes or when the swim things come around we come out the other end of this and we're at a position to have a strong recovery people will then be able to spend and be able to do things and that's what we need to have a strong recovery when it comes in other words we need more stimulus to help people keep them paying their bills and keep people in their homes and keeping companies and small businesses and people solvent and that's what we need so then we talked about the flight to safety and what the crash that happened in March how they saw it coming of course because you know of the data from January and Iran and how it was leaking out of China and in South Korea and Italy and so some of the things that they did fair to say you simply flooded the system with money yes we did that's another way to think about it where does the money come from do you just print it by the way I've been talking about this for months but yeah they just change it on a spreadsheet in fact in one of my old videos I literally just took a spreadsheet up and I showed you all right add a trillion dollars to the debt add a trillion dollars to assets that's how they do it and here Jerome Powell actually says it it's actually kind of a fascinating line we print it digitally so as a central bank we have the ability to create money digitally so Jerome could actually rest his arm and he just has to go coffee break that was easy did my job for the day it's nuts right so we actually so we also print actual currency and we distribute that through the Federal Reserve Banks okay so that way he can still pose for the picture okay continuing on so the things we're doing now are substantially larger okay some of this is a little bit more detailed I read all this but I'm just highlighting those stuff that's more important for us right okay so oh this was funny the interviewer says hey should people stuff their money in a mattress there's absolutely no need to do that no need at all banks have been strong they've been fine there's absolutely no need to do that honestly with how like strong he's saying that it almost makes you wonder like should I take my money my money run should I put my money I obviously personally do not think you need to do that I'm not taking my money and running I tell you if I am look I've been telling y'all every step of the way what I've been doing with my money and you know now I actually just showed you my whole portfolio and you know my net worth over the years because I just feel like the more transparent I could be with you all the more the more you can kind of just learn from me and see what's going on behind the scenes okay so so if you take the long perspective the US has been spending more than what it's been taking in for some time so this starts talking about the debt the time to deal with that higher debt is basically when the economy is growing faster than the debt so basically the time to pay off all this extra debt we're taking off or taking on is when the economy is strong and unemployment is low just a heads up we tried to do that in 2008 mr.
18 mr. Jerome Powell but he almost crashed the economy so all right well so we got over here oh yeah this was interesting so this is a little bit more kind of circling back to that longer-run damage that employees have and so I wrote ad next to it because it is interesting it's like if you did a year worth of advertising on Facebook as a real estate agent and all of a sudden you stopped advertising in March and April it's kind of like you have to start building your brand again you know see look at this their contacts get old and cold their skills atrophy that just means become less functional well that's strong it's kind of like your muscles decaying atrophy so this can weigh on the economy for years keeping away from chapter 11 bankruptcy which is a restructuring of your debt if it's avoidable is very important unfortunately it's not going to be avoidable in many cases big danger obviously to state and local governments they're going to see a strong decline in revenues and basically if Congress doesn't bail them out what all that's gonna mean is people are gonna get laid off and they'll cut back on services which kind of sucks because I feel like we saw a lot of that in like 2010 and 11 and now we're gonna see more of that again which sucks because if they finally started repaving some roads around here anyway all right so then we talk about negative interest rates how banks would basically be paying you to buy money if if they came around with negative interest rates but he says you know he doesn't see that happening and multiple fed presidents have come out to say that we don't see doing this because it introduces too many distortions to the market and to the financial system and which basically offset the benefit of having negative interest rates and it's an area of real uncertainty in the banking world and basically that it's been tried but it hasn't been successful in the past so and then the real risk that he sees here would be look if we reopen the economy but we have to close down again and that could potentially lead to another crash in fact let me look at his word wording here because he says and that you would have another downturn oh yeah yeah basically so if we have to lock down again you'd have another downturn and that would be really bad for confidence so that's a risk we really want to avoid I mean those are powerful lines right there mr.
Powell here all right what else we got there's more that we can do well I mentioned in the long run I would never bet against America a good thing because I keep investing in stocks mr. Chairman I just got a push notification on my phone Dow tanks more than 500 points in Wall Street sell off after Fed chair Warren's economic recovery will be prolonged and Powell just goes yeah I've been watching the markets I know it's got to be like depressing cheese I feel bad for the guy the guy gets so many memes made on them and made fun of some I know but I respect the guy okay no no I mean hats off to what he has to do but anyway there the good news is we have tools to limit the longer-run damage by continuing to provide support to households and businesses and we get through this the problem is it's really Congress that has the Household support tool right and so we really need that more stimulus talk a little bit on Main Street lending a lot of this again has to do with businesses so I didn't spend too much time highlighting this Main Street lending is really like big street lending it's like corporate lending it's a joke I don't know why they let name did that and then this is what I mentioned at the beginning of the video where if you want to look at data you know the most important is the medical metric and that's sort of the real-time economic you see but in a sense the real-time economic data data we're seeing is just a function of how successful the social distancing measures are if that's a really well said sentence I mean Wow good for this guy well okay so I mean aka Jerome Powell says we need more stimulus and I think that's obvious we've said that multiple times now in other videos but this really goes deep into some of the things that he's saying this is the first time we've had like a full-on 60 minute interview with him so thank you CVS go watch that 60 minute interview join me and my programs down below there is an awesome coupon code that does expire soon and by the way a lot of you have been emailing me going hey Kevin I want to bundle coupon what's the scoop here's how that works if you check out for like the real estate investing course and you use a 33 percent off coupon code once you pay for it you're gonna get a pop-up for a bundle for the other courses and then this is kind of a bonus secret I'm telling you in this video here or if you email me if you buy three or four courses there is a bonus discount so once you check out for three or four courses just email me and say hey I bought three or four courses you'll get an extra fifty or an extra hundred twenty-five dollars as a bonus that coupon code does expire in about a week so I would love to see you in the programs remember I go live every day at a nine a.m.
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