저자: Josh · 외국인
요약 보기
시장은 셧다운 위기 해소 후에도 방향 미정으로 보며 연준(Powell) 발언과 JOLTS 지표 확인 전까지 관망. S&P500은 소수 대형주(M7) 주도라 'S&P 7'로 부르자고 함. 페니스톡 FEMY는 2주간 약 1,300% 급등 후 과열 상태로 조정 가능성이 크며 단기 트레이딩만 가능하다고 함. 엔비디아는 헤드앤숄더 우려와 거래량 다이버전스로 단기 약세 시나리오를 제시하나 장기 보유 관점은 유지하며 384~346 구간 분할매수 고려. 테슬라는 추후 분석 예정.
다듬은 글
like the intro cartoon trying to predict these markets is a dangerous game well the threat of the looming government shutdown apparently has passed but not without some drama Congressman Bowman attempting to avert the resolution tried to go out in the hallway and pull a fire alarm only later on to say that he didn't know it was a firearm he wasn't trying to interrupt anything in my eyes Washington remains a clown show now I talked with you guys in my last video that the fact that the market had pulled back near 5% in the month of September was telling me that it had already priced in the potential of a government shutdown and the fact that one has been averted absolutely does open up the door or the potential for the markets to begin to move back up but we still have some things to be concerned about one in particular is bed Jerome pal is set to speak tomorrow and then we've got the jolts report after that we do not have a clear signal that the markets have reversed and are now trending higher as I said in my last video there was a bearish and bullish case developing in the charts so really it's still 50/50 it can turn south or north we have to wait and see for confirmation I'm going to continue to remind you guys that I'm going to be trading like a caboose on the train I'm going to follow behind and make my decisions after the path is clearly laid out I'm going to throw back up on the screen an overview of the technical analysis that I did for the Magnificent 7 exactly where I see support and exactly where I see resistance now I am absolutely leaning towards believing that we are on our way to back test resistance but I'm expecting choppy Waters and I'm not going to fomo in on Monday morning there are some trades that I'm going to be looking at getting into pre-market and I'm imagining that the FED is going to come out and be hawkish like he's been recently and I'm hoping that it'll give the market a chance to pause and pull back and I'll probably enter some positions then as well I've decided I'm no longer going to call the S&P the S&P 500 I'm now going to call it the S&P 7 because what this Market lacks is Market breadth of participation we're not seeing that the advancing stocks are outnumbering the declining stocks we're still seeing the opposite we have more declining stocks outnumbering advancing stocks and so we really have just had the Magnificent 7 or the S&P 7 moving the markets bullish and so those of the stocks I'm going to continue to focus my attention on Saturday's conversation in the Discord was quite interesting I spent the morning time going over an Invidia setup looking for a long-term swing trade there and I went and presented it to the Discord if you're not in the Discord it's called the stock Squad there's a link in the top pin comment that's where you're going to get more from me more technical analysis and more connection more communication and on Saturday I went and presented to the Discord my plans for NVIDIA and what they did is they presented to me a hot Penny Stock and asked me to run some technicals on it now I'm going to briefly share at the end of this video my setup for NVIDIA but I thought it would be interesting to give this penny stock a review because when I looked into it the technicals were quite interesting to me and I'm going to share those with you guys today some of you guys may be trading it and hopefully these technicals might help you this is the stocks with Josh show thank you guys for chiming in thank you for already hitting the like hit the Subscribe in the YouTube notification Bell to get help trading these markets the penny stock I'm talking about is Frid frid's big midday mover called femi f ticker fem y okay so what does femi stock do well the company name is femes I think that's how you pronounce it and they produce medical instruments and supplies for Women's Health Care the ticker FY says that they produce novel solutions for Reproductive Health Care Now on Friday it moved on good news I'm going to share that good news with you guys in just a minute but let me just tell you guys what exactly this stock has done in the last two weeks it's moved up, 1300% yes 1,300% and so this could be setting up for a great opportunity to short or if this is a legitimate news story with a legitimate company rising from the penny stock grave this could still have some more upside I'm going to show you guys that in the charts but let me just tell you exactly what they've got going on in the fundamentals so specifically it went from 24 2 weeks ago to $362 an incredible run and in particular Friday it was up 100% on a near 6,000 increase in volume and so let me just remind you guys when price and momentum both agree that's what gives you that rocket ship move up and fe's been a rocket ship and after hours on Friday it continued to climb it went up an additional 14 cents or an additional 5% now why is this stock moving well in particular feem Inc expands their fem block pivotal trial enrollment securing first academic site to participate so these guys have two products one of them is called feemed and one of them is called FEMA block feemed has to do with fertility Solutions and FEMA block has to do with non-surgical permanent birth control and so those are their two products and they're both advancing quickly in recent days in particular feemed was approved by the FDA and now FEMA block has gone into final stage trials and what does all of that mean well all of it means that this company that has not been running a profit this little bitty company has now a path to profit and a right for the stock price to begin to advance rather than decline but let's keep things into perspective one they've not made a profit yet and two they haven't gotten both of these into the marketplace and so there is still some room for some choppiness in this stock and it definitely was a short squeeze that caused it to move up the way that it did is the move over is there any more upside well you know what I'm going to say the technicals will tell the story let's start off with the bearish case because as I've said before when I come out and I even sound slightly bullish I know that there's a lot of people out there that are going to turn around and say oh Josh is slightly bullish on this uh penny stock that means I'm going to be way bullish I'm GNA one up Josh Josh might put a$ thousand dollars in this penny stock I'm going to put 10,000 in this penny stock guys let's just examine the bearish case this is more of a teaching opportunity I'm hoping to show you guys how to analyze these penny stock opportunities so let's get into the charts a little bit first thing I want to point out to you guys is that we shot way outside above the bowling bands and if you understand the way the bowling bands work what happens is when the price goes outside the band it quickly wants to come back in the band and so right now we're outside of it if it were to come back inside the band that means the price has to come down for that to be accomplished and then we go over to the RSI now if you understand the RSI it basically measures momentum and an overbought condition is anything above the 70% mark on the RSI well currently this shot up all the way to near 90% which means that the conditions in which it's at is called an extreme overbought condition which again means that probably the next step is for it to pull back a little bit and then I'm going to take you guys into the macd 1hour chart I want to show you guys that the macd is curling over which often signals that the price is going to decline now here's what I'm looking at and I'm going to be considering I'm going to talk to you guys about how to make a momentum play on a penny stock like this now I'm going to caution you this is extremely risky but I'm going to show you where I would consider taking an entry and I'm going to show you that by putting up the 9 EMA that's the exponential moving average and you can see that as this has moved forward and come back it's bounced off of the 9 EMA the first time it seemed to bounce off the top of the ribbon the second time it went a little deeper into the ribbon and it bounced and if we were to take the price points at where deeper in the ribbon might be and we might be watching for a reversal or a bounce that would put us to around the $2.50 range to the $214 range and I want to point out to you that in addition to that I see $2.50 as one of its significant support prices and then beneath that if that range was lost the next support level is down at $150 and so be cautious if you were to put in a big chunk of change $5,000 at $3 on Monday morning this thing could easily come back to a $150 and you would have lost $2,500 and so you do not want to do a Buy and Hold on a fast moving stocks fast moving stock can only be considered in the light of a day trade as a momentum trade so keep that in mind now if this were to continue to move up on Monday morning the way that you would consider playing it if all of the momentum was continuing to the green side which would really represent a lot of uh shorts closing their positions out of fear and a lot of bulls buying in out of fomo then what we would see is the price begin to advance back above the closing price on Friday we'd want to see it close on the five minute chart above $332 and if we saw that it wouldn't be unrealistic to take a position there with a very tight stop loss barely a nickel beneath and then you'd be looking to take profits at around $3.65 but if it were to close above $3.65 again on the five minute chart you'd be looking for the first candle to make a new high above $3.65 that's when it could squeeze possibly as high as $3.80 and so this is a real get in and get out opportunity all right so I'm going to break down three ways that I would watch this stock on Monday morning one there's the potential that it could go back and fill a gap between a155 and a185 and we would know that if it cut right through the 9 EMA ribbon and continue to drop beneath $2 we could assume that it would go as low as a $150 to $155 and that would be a place where you could consider taking a position the next would be again that close on Monday above $332 for a push up to potentially $3.65 and if it closed above $365 then it could get to $3.85 now you might say Josh where's the overall resistance how high could this potentially go it could go as high as $66.50 but I want to be super clear with you I think it's run up so much being up 1,300% in the last two weeks that we're going to see a significant draw down before the Bulls load back up and push this thing higher and I would tell you guys that if you don't have experience with momentum plays I would not touch this this is not a Buy and Hold opportunity because you could get absolutely wrecked just giving away most of your Capital to somebody else all right before I get into Nvidia and a brief commentary on Tesla let me just make a quick station break for the mumu Investment app if you need better trade tools they're available in the US Australia and Canada and the offer that's available in the US for this zero cost to trade platform is to receive up to 16 free stock for opening and funding your account and on the app I host a chat group called stock Josh fam so get your free stock start investing with better trade tools and then come find my free chat group that I host called stock Josh famam all right I'm going to keep my commentary on Nvidia very simple I believe that ultimately There's an opportunity right now for us to back test the 458 to 460 level potentially with the bullish news going into this week there's going to be a lot of choppiness but somehow I think we're going to back test 460 but here's where it gets concerning and here's where the narrative turns bearish if we fail at 460 we will have completed creating the second or the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern and you guys have been hearing me talk a lot about the head and shoulders pattern because it's appearing on everything it seems right now now and we don't want to see a head and shoulders pattern after a long six-month move up it often signals that the move up is absolutely losing steam now we know when a head and shoulders pattern gets confirmed it's when you get a daily Candlestick Clos so you go beneath the the neckline which for NVIDIA is $49 you go beneath it the following day you have a red candle closing beneath the neckline that confirms that there's going to be a much bigger move down now I'm not predicting that I'm watching for that I think that we have the opportunity to back test 458 to 460 on Nvidia and I'm going to be looking for puts if we slow down and then I'm going to be looking for a retest of the neckline now a head and shoulders pattern is not valid if the neckline never gets broken we could come all the way back to 409 and they could have a good earnings report moving forward and it could push the stock right back up negating the head and shoulders neckline the fear of that breakdown but if we were to close beneath that 409 level then rest assured I think that we're going to be going back to a minimum of $384 which is a significant level of support I'm going to point out one more thing to you guys on the Nvidia chart is that when we ran up to make the all-time high the volume was also participating and when we have price action going up and volume going up that's where you've got that Confluence and that's how we made an all-time high but in recent days we've been swinging up but the volume's been going down and that's bearish Divergence so between the bearish Divergence in volume the potential fear of that failure at 460 of The Head and Shoulders pattern and the breakdown between 409 there's plenty of reasons to keep a bearish eye on Nvidia now that does not negate the potential behind Nvidia as a company and the desire to own it in a long-term position and it could be opening up a fabulous opportunity to begin to DCA potentially between 384 and 346 that would be my long-term DCA range so there you go there's some fresh technical on Nvidia and the only thing I'm going to share with you guys on Tesla today is that I'm going to go into a Tesla call tomorrow I'm sure I got a funny comment about the fact that I haven't covered Tesla in my last video Even though I did give you guys technicals on it in my previous video but I didn't spend much time talking about it and one of you guys said this guy never mentioned Tesla an obvious impostor of Josh which I just found hysterical I'm going to be diving into some analysis of Tesla on Monday that's going to be a focus of one of my next videos guys I do want to mention that there do there are many people that impostor me on all sorts of social media platforms and specifically on YouTube they sound like me they use my name they use my picture they respond to you in the comment section and ultimately they're trying to get you to engage them so that you ultimately will DM them and then they're going to tell you guys for a special course or a special opportunity or a special trade scenario just send them a couple hundred bucks or some Bitcoin and they'll help you out you and it's not me so that's the main thing it's not me and and again I will be touching on Tesla very soon thank you guys for joining me on this beautiful afternoon as always thank you for hitting the like don't fail to hit the Subscribe in the YouTube all notification Bell to continue to get more content as always peace and blessings have a great day
Comments 0