저자: Dale·Vinnie · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 두 진행자는 게임오브트레이즈(Michael Burry 발언을 인용하는 유튜버)의 '증시 상승' 전망을 비판하며 단기 하락에 베팅하고 있다. [채널 주장 비판] 게임오브트레이즈는 채권수익률 하락으로 6개월 내 증시와 TLT가 오를 것이라 주장하지만, 진행자들은 10년치 그래프 비교가 체리피킹이며 1980년대 등 동일 시기 비교가 필요하다고 지적한다. 영국 비교에 대해서도 영국은 팬데믹 중 통화 공급을 과도하게 늘렸고 인플레이션이 10% 이상이며 에너지 전쟁 영향까지 있어 미국과 단순 비교가 불가능하다고 본다. 2008년 위기는 인플레이션이 아니라 사기(fraud)가 원인이었다고 설명한다. [노동시장·이익 전망] 2022년 내내 실업률 급등 등 2008년식 붕괴 신호는 나타나지 않았다고 본다. 다만 경기침체가 오면 실업률 상승 가능성은 열어둔다. 노동참가율 감소는 실업률에 반영되지 않는 사실이며 인력 부족이 과거와 다른 구조라고 본다. S&P500 이익 감소는 일부 기업에서 나타나지만 급락 수준은 아니라고 한다. [차트·기술적 분석] SPY 장기 기울기를 보면 팬데믹 이후 급등 구간이 과도하며 큰 조정이 필요하다고 진단한다. 200일 이동평균선 부근 재접근을 하락 신호로 본다. [포지션] 단기(2주) SPY 383.9 기준 하락 베팅(콜 스프레드 등), 2개월 물 SPY 370/380 콜 스프레드 보유 중. 최대 손실 약 300달러, 최대 이익 약 750달러 수준이다. 또 다른 진행자는 SPY 풋옵션 2024년 만기 등을 약 2,545달러 매수했다. 전체 약 18K 규모 숏 포지션을 보유 중이라고 밝힌다. 200일선 상향 돌파 시 2,000달러 손실을 감수하고 2023년 만기 포지션을 정리하겠다고 말한다. [리스크·조건] 예상이 틀리면 손실이 발생한다. 채널 운영상 상대 유튜버는 책임 없이 틀린 전망을 반복한다고 비판한다. [종합] 진행자들은 2개월 내 SPY 하락을 기대하나, 시장 구조 변화와 리스크를 함께 언급한다.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to Tuesday guys trade stocks I'm Dale and I'm Vinnie and we're going to take a look at the market and more important for an all-time we're no longer going lower which if we are wrong we're gonna do something that he won't do admit it and uh we're gonna take a look at his video and where we think we're going and how we backed it up Super grocery stocks all right so uh do you know game of Trades Vinnie obviously you do you show them to me yeah I do I did I I liked him at first I really did it took me a little while to figure out like he was non-committal and ha and doesn't seem to have ever traded a bear Market my personal stupid guy opinion yeah I mean to be fair neither have I but I also don't charge an 80 class to uh make sure that you know they get a bunch of cash um so I was gonna put in like a bunch of videos and analyze and do all this stuff but it's just kind of a waste of time so I'm gonna make it simple um this is the video that's up you know why this is not a bear Mecca rally and there's a massive move coming um originally as we're going down he's like we're gonna go up no problem and then we got done is like all right now we're gonna go down and then we started going up um so he's almost like the Kramer of financial YouTubers yeah it's traffic it's pretty accurate um now you could argue eventually he is going to be right because I'm going to say within 100 years from now the stock market does go up yep inevitably all right over the long run that is indeed the direction that is most likely to Prevail yes now here's the here's the evidence that he's going um we're gonna go up because bond yields we decrease as we aren't in balance with the UK or other countries bond yields will fall over the next six months so it gave a timeline dangerous um and TLT will rise along with the stock market now while he's doing this I'm Gonna Save you all the time he's using graphs of TLT over like 10 years and bond yields over 10 years if you were to compare to an equivalent ish scenario you use the 80s we do not have high inflation in the last 10 years okay we were at in fact from from 2008 to 2015 interest rates were 0.25 it's it's not an equivalent time to look at treasury yields or bonds you need to do equivalent time in history so it's more cherry picking graphs over and over and over you know hey this is why my points right let me show you only the evidence that shows why it's right um if anyone talk about that well the thing that I I completely lost my mind with was when he's comparing it to the UK the UK has so many other issues that are completely unique to them right now they actually when you look at the amount of cash that they printed over the last couple years since the whole pandemic began they are actually one of the most aggressive ones like that'd be an interesting point to put up in terms of the M2 money supply graph they went Bonkers that's why they're dealing with inflation that's over 10 right now you know you're talking about what 30 more inflation than we're seeing in the United States net and then they also have a war that's affecting their their energy prices like they're not comparing apples apples in the least no and they just had that whole Parliament Fiasco on top of that where they decided to finance more debt if there's a whole this is a multi-variable thing that exactly you you can't compare also so it was our time right now this is a multi-variable scenario that is not unlike any other time in history if you look at the crash of 2008 it wasn't crashing because of inflation it's a whole different thing there was inflation but it wasn't due to all the money we printed it was due to you know fraud um so we're going to look at well you know more than fraud but you know we're going to look at a quick vid goes to learning from your mistakes moving on and looking into the future and trying to do things better however this has been one of our big Focus points throughout 2022 is that we weren't going to a massive rise in the unemployment rate like we did in 2008 that it wasn't the end of the world that we weren't going to see a contraction in S P 500 earnings like Michael burry has been so vocal about which led to the 2000 and 2008 crashes we haven't seen any of that right now could it come absolutely at once when the recession comes at one point where you're going to see unemployment rate rise especially taking into account the massive monetary shock that we've had throughout 2022 but the fact of the matter is that we're not there yet we're not seeing a steady rise in unemployment now let me further my point a little bit before you guys harass me uh in the comments and let's select some of the key fair market rallies throughout history that could look similar to today just so that's where it is fair he does call out being like hey I could be wrong let me get my point out complete respect we're all I don't know for sure I'm pretty confident I don't know for sure I'm on the side with furry um but it's the same thing that everyone's been arguing about in the media we had a two percent labor shortage so you're not going to have the same history of employer status over time for this time and we lost the amount of people in the workforce yeah and that's a huge disagreement you're talking about the decreased labor participation rate yeah and how that is not reflected in the unemployed unemployment rate that we've seen there there are no doubts that there are fewer people working at this point in time than there were pre-pandemic yes it's just a fact right um we're going to look at a couple things here we showed this in another vid I mean this is music to me and Vinnie well it's still not confirmed it's still yeah exactly he's still dancing around it he loves to be mysterious but yeah it I I think he's certainly kind of letting you know at least a little bit that he's aggressively thinking that direction put it that way we we've known for a while you know he's talked about it being the greatest bubble of all time by you know two orders of magnitude which is insane like I don't know if anything is approaching that level of frothiness but yeah and that earnings thing that he was talking about um where he's like we haven't seen their their earnings decrease in in companies that's kind of true we are seeing earnings that is not as good for across all companies but it doesn't just you don't just go from kilomet trash there's a little bit of a you know Gap there um yeah this is the Spy okay and I'm gonna do a more interactive shirt at the end of this but this is the short term okay what I want to look at is the long term this is from 2000.
look at just the slope ooh geometry yeah I finally used it look at the slope of the white line here tell like let me move my face what is this like 2018 yeah 2018. um then look at the slope of the green line that's insanity you have to have a fairly large correction for that much of a steep incline is that not wild yeah yeah no I totally agree I mean definitely like it's the part after the pandemic that is much steeper portion of that contribution there in the green line which makes sense given the the absolute ridiculous money printing thing went on a lot of that money ended up in assets like the Spy right so it's something that we're gonna have to come to terms with um so yeah this is we're going to show you how we're putting our money where our mouth is um so this is still my stupid little fun money account uh this account's been wild the last couple years but um basically the trade I have right now is aggressive what I have what I have done here is I have two in the money covered call uh the calls that I have the call spreads that I've sold so whereby if the Spy has a dramatic sell-off over the next uh like basically two weeks or the next two months that I will profit significantly from that looking at you know the upside of this is up to 100 profit basically on my money over the next two months that's aggressive I know it's a little stupid aggressive but we name the channel appropriately um yeah uh well we're we're starting to kind of hit that 200-day moving average we're getting very close to that so I think we're ready for another leg down here and that's what this trade is on that's why I did the really short one only two weeks and then I have the little longer one not going out two months which is deeper in the money so I have a 380 390 call spread here and I have a 370 380 this is the one that goes out to January uh 2023.
um the two-week one right here is uh you know 383.90 so I need the Spy to get below basically like 385 by two weeks from now that one is ballsy as man it is I'm not gonna lie I mean my maximum loss in this is I think is like 300 bucks basically or under that my maximum gain on this is like 750. yeah I mean that's the risk to reward is is worth it um yeah here's mine so I'm doing a little bit more than Vinnie I'm on like 18K short right now yeah no it's a lot yeah it's a pretty good amount um huh you have more time to be right though than I gave myself this one so I have uh two 24 spy puts one Q I just bought this Q 2024 so I put for 265 for 25 hundred dollars what I've been what is it yeah okay 2545.
so 2 545 bucks um now I do I think I'm in the whole 1500 total for all of these um it's shitty because when the Spy was at 360 I was up 40 which was gross but I want to try to see to hold this um I may cut these 2023 positions if we don't have a decent drop or if one other thing happens um let me go to what's your timeline for when you would that see that decent drop by two months all right sometime the next two months okay yeah so or no this let me get rid of this you see my there we go so this 200-day moving average this is the important one right I did I've done multiple videos on it look at this beautiful oh my God that's arousing it's so perfect it touches it to the scent um to the tip uh we looked at multiple crashes and how the 200 moving average acted um if it shoots up above this 200 moving average with very little resistance I'm gonna dip on the 23s I'll take a 2 000 loss is that a lot yes but it was to gain six so to me the risk is worth it right um that's where we're at I don't know why game of Trades is you know doing its thing but give us a like And subscribe yeah definitely come back and like to subscribe if we're right which we probably should be in the next couple months if we're anticipating a bounce with the 200 yeah more importantly if we're wrong we'll lose money so that's the that's the good part that dude's wrong constantly no consequences because he has an 80 class all right guys see in the next one have a good one
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