저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 2022년 3분기 13F 공시를 분석한 영상. 결론: 버리는 교도소 리츠 GEO Group 비중을 크게 늘렸고, 신규로 QVC 인터내셔널 등 저평가 소형주에 분산 투자했다. 공시에 현금·공매도·해외주식은 나타나지 않는다. 공시 내용: GEO Group은 직전 분기 유일 보유 종목이었고 이번에 약 300% 추가 매수됐다. 신규 보유 종목은 QVC(Qurate 계열, 현재 2번째 큰 비중, 약 1,000만 달러), CoreCivic, Aerojet Rocketdyne, Charter Communications, Liberty Latin America이며, 이들은 대략 FFO 기준 10배 수준에 거래된다. 교도소 리츠 논쟁: 진행자는 민간교도소가 비도덕적이라는 여론에 대해 버리가 80%는 수감시설이 아닌 사회복귀 프로그램이라고 주장한 트윗을 소개한다. 수익은 정부 계약에서 나온다고 설명. 포트폴리오 규모 논란: Whale Wisdom 차트의 약 20억 달러 평가액은 콜옵션 계약 가치를 포함한 과대평가이며, 실제 포트폴리오는 대략 2~3억 달러 수준으로 본다. 과거 TLT 풋, 테슬라 풋 등 대규모 옵션 포지션이 있었다. 진행자 개인 거래: 공시 당일 QVC 콜옵션을 약 0.82~0.85달러에 사서 0.90달러 부근에 매도해 소폭 이익을 냈고, 이후 청산했다고 밝힘. 시사점: 개인 투자자는 소형주 심층 분석에서 경쟁 우위를 가질 수 있으며, 역사적으로 소형주가 대형주를 앞서는 경향이 있다는 견해. 바이오 소형주는 제외.
다듬은 글
talking about Michael berries Q3 2022 quarterly filing the 13f came out today we want to see what he's been buying he started buying back into the market a little bit we're going to talk about the companies with bedpath fine St three stops all right what is it well can you guess by the background here all right so you know I actually had to grab the screenshot from a different uh website that I normally use I usually you use well wisdom but they didn't actually have it update at the time I was trying to put this thing together um but this is the totality of Michael Murray's portfolio right now now this is the SEC kind of filing it doesn't tell us anything about cash doesn't tell us anything about foreign stocks uh or short positions I don't have to be disclosed call contracts put contracts and then long equities need to be disclosed and that's it all right so this only gives us a little bit of taste right geogroup is the prison and is the only stock he held in his last 13 up filing so everything else in this filing is new and he added you know additional kind of position to the Geo Group you know if you look at it right here 300 increase so he's adding significantly to that position compared to Prior all right retail crap so that was the one that caught my eye and right immediately it's now his second largest holding it's still only 10 million dollars we could talk about his total portfolio signs a little bit uh later but um this is basically is QVC International not the QVC domestic one you know the QVC that your your grandmother probably watches on occasion I don't know if you have anyone in your family that uses that yeah so it's not that one it's not that one it's their international division it's also HSN and Zulily it's another like online shopping basically platform for I'm sorry um television shopping platform so I I did a little trade on that one today and I closed it already before the end of the day because I didn't want to be like one of those social media influencers you know influencers yeah right uh that actually is trying to make money by their front running trades uh core Civic another prison Reit right uh aerojet Rocketdyne and then Charter Communications and Liberty Latin American which is another Communications company they basic kind of trend that you notice across all of these is that they're all trading at about 10 or so in terms of their you know price to uh ffo or you know funds from operation which is what you use when you value a Reit with the exception of um the aerojet rocket diet yeah I gotta do you know what like dollar oh 40 and it's right there it's on the side oops okay yeah uh I'm not really familiar with that to be honest with you no so you know this came out for one of the one of the Twitter profiles that follows this stuff as well that was this made me laugh a little bit before it was not over 50 prison stocks like that's he was 100 last quarter so 50 for him is actually going down yeah so if you like that you have to know the basis otherwise you got to read that and go like oh man I guess he really wants to buy a lot of Prisons Berry talked a little bit about the prison stock stuff too this is for a tweet from a little while ago a couple months back but basically you know he talks about how he's trying to dispel false narratives and that there's this negative connotation you see it everywhere you know you'll see it in our comments probably later on you'll see it on Reddit talking about this today about how like you know private prisons should be illegal we should own private prisons so there's a morally complicated and like actually I I before doing any like kind of looking into that I I get that argument right uh but the fact she throws out here this is the whole kind of thing I can leave it up here so people can read it if they choose but what he's really trying to say is that the actual vast majority of things of these private prisons are not confinement facilities you know this is the major line right here 80 of these private prisons are community-based programs these are really used more as stepping stones to get people reacclimated to society all right so if that makes you feel really better about it how do they make profit though that's the con like how is that a profitable business I mean it's still by government contract that they're being paid for this it's just it's not what you you know when you say private prison it's not doesn't conjure up the same image as it does when you talk about a community-based kind of like reacclamation program right okay so yeah one question I have if you add up the the amount of money that he has invested isn't that not that much compared to what the entire hedge fund is because that's what I just typed in it's not that much yeah so uh back up to the slide here in a second so I actually saw Daniel from unraveled investing talking about this saying how like this this is generated by whale wisdom this is showing his total portfolio over time and if you look at all the way back here in the peak they're saying he had like a two billion dollar valuation at one point or almost that's really a a fake number though because this is calculated based upon uh the total value of call or contracts that are also in the portfolio right that's how it's controlled that's really unrealistic to where he actually was you know when you're looking at more of this kind of pre kind of coveted era here we talk about a couple hundred million two to three hundred million dollars that's more in line what I think what his portfolio is actually worth in total so if you're still looking at this you know kind of what the most recent quarterly filing we're talking about a portfolio that's still mostly going to be in cash or shorting we just don't know or shorting yes or you know for those of us that are Alibaba bag holders you know maybe he's buying some Hong Kong shares of Alibaba you never know I kind of doubt it but you know it's possible he has talked about China being a deeply undervalued compared to 2009 American stock prices so maybe that's a possibility but yeah I just wanted to point that out that this is not an accurate reflection of what his portfolio was at Peak and he didn't have this dramatic sell-off here this is him closing positions and that he no longer has called put contract controlling a safer number of shares um then you know this kind of basic idea here this is where he's talking about you know kind of uh you know his investing philosophy a little bit here is just trying to get these stocks that are just so cheap that it doesn't really matter and that's where really where I think he's looking at when he looks at these these private prison groups where you're talking about 10 like you know yield in terms of funds from operation that's is attraction I think I am that definitely makes sense for uh for the people who are wondering what his call options were and if you follow this channel for a while the TLT trade where I shorted the treasury bonds he had a ton of puts on yeah so I mean that was part of it remember Tesla too he had it famously had a whole ton of Tesla puts Apple puts at one point in time too he he said some pretty large options trades that were you know when you look at these kind of websites they're listed as number one in terms of a position value as those Tesla puts and all right so I actually had today off so I had some free time and I was basically refreshing the SEC website looking for this to come out uh so when it came out this morning was I don't know maybe 10 30 or so I had actually texted you and I saw this company this qrtaea the parent company here for Zulily QVC was um now his second largest holding I bought two uh call options um one dollar co-ops was expiring in December I picked them up I think for uh was it 85 cents a share 82 cents of which was actually intrinsic value at that point in time I sold them maybe about an hour later you know a little profit I think I sold them for 90 a piece basically so I made like 10 bucks on the trade this because I I didn't want to come out here tonight and then shoot this video and and have you know all these gains that have been occurred here since then and also like anything that happens after this and be like oh like I would front run this trade um I mean I guess I did but I I don't know I didn't want to like uh not disclose it sort of thing and I'm out of it entirely at this point so wait are you trying to say that you're a YouTube Financial person like with honor because that's not that's not in the space definitely not I just have a mild to guilty conscience I don't know why it's like this weird nagging voice in the head it sounds like my mother now I was like I could I couldn't do it you know I I thought about just writing the thing up until like the end of the day basically today probably could have made another you know 30 40 bucks something on that trade it was a small trade but uh interesting idea if you're paid enough attention when you see these little 700 million micro caps the other major lesson I kind of was thinking about as I'm looking through his portfolio was that I uh I really need to start looking more at small cap companies that's really where as an individual investor that wants to do time and kind of start doing their own kind of deeper bad distance on companies that's where you have a Competitive Edge because like Buffett can't invest in this yeah and and and small caps historically will almost always beat large caps right just as long as they're not biotech I'm gonna stay away from that yeah that's why exactly exactly yeah well let us know what you think about the uh changes of Michael borey's portfolio today and whether or not I should have stood in this trade and screw the honor yeah give us a like And subscribe if you like the information guys have a good one see
Comments 0