저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Peter Schiff은 미국 증시가 이미 베어마켓 국면에 들어섰고 경기침체도 2008~2009년보다 길고 깊을 것이라고 주장한다. 증시 근거: 러셀2000 약 25% 하락, 다우 운송지수 약 30% 하락, 다수 업종·종목은 20% 이상 하락. 공식 베어마켓 선언은 지수 20% 하락 기준이지만 체감상 이미 진입했다는 입장. 경기 근거: 자동차 산업은 신용 버블에 의존했고 이미 버블이 터졌으며 재고 적체로 올해 자동차·부품 업계 대규모 해고가 예상된다. 주택 시장도 문제로, 자가보유율은 50% 근처로 낮고 투기 수요 기반이었다. 고용은 저임금·시간제·임시직 위주이며 실질 실업(underemployment)은 두 자릿수, 경제활동참가율은 기록적 저점 수준이라고 주장. 통화정책: 연준이 금리를 올린 것은 실수이며 다시 금리를 낮추고 QE4를 단행할 가능성이 높다고 본다. 옐런은 11월 대선에서 힐러리를 돕기 위해 침체 공식화를 미루려 할 것이라고 주장. 금리 인상을 계속하면 증시 하락과 역자산효과로 침체가 이어진다는 입장. 중국: 중국 경제 둔화나 유가 하락이 원인이 아니며, 문제는 미국 내부에서 만들어졌고 중국 시장이 오히려 미국 여파로 하락 중이라고 봄. 전망: 연준이 침체 인정을 늦추면 나중에 대응 여력이 없어지며, 대선 전 몇 달 내 조치가 필요하다고 봄. 진행자의 해외(푸에르토리코) 체류에 대한 농담성 질문에는 금융 아마겟돈 신호는 아니라고 답함.
다듬은 글
is what's happening in the markets an official correction do we have a bare market and is the US economy officially in recession joining me now from Puerto Rico CEO and chief Global strategist for europacific Capital Peter Schiff uh Peter let's start with the bare Market that we have some indicators that that tell us whether we're in a bare Market or not you can look at stocks going down some people would say we're in a bare Market uh I think interest rates is one of them inflation we have higher interest rates of course at least a little bit uh you look at inflation as well you look at overvaluation do we have the indicators right now of a bare Market well sure I think not only are we in a bare Market in stocks I think we're in a recession economically you know when you played the clip from President Obama State of the Union you know when he talked about people pedaling fiction I thought he was talking about me but you know I'm the one that's that selling reality he's pedaling a bill of goods trying to pretend that this recovery is real but whatever it was it's over and I think the recession that in now is going to be longer and deeper than the Great Recession of 2008 2009 and of course all bare markets begin as Corrections uh but they don't officially call it a bail Market until it's down 20% Then you know the Russell 2000 is down 25% the Dow transports are down 30% uh many individual sectors and stocks are down a lot more than 20% and so it sure feels like a bare Market even though officially Wall Street hasn't declared it a bare Market but if the FED doesn't come up with a qe4 which I think it's going to do I think it's a mistake they shouldn't do it they shouldn't have done one two and three but the only way to stop an official bare Market will be for the FED to reverse course reduce rates and launch another round of QE that's it okay you said a lot there I want to peel back the onion just a little bit let's go back to the economy uh and the indicators there that uh tell you that we are in recession of course uh the Auto industry seems to be doing okay uh housing consumer spending that seems to be okay but but employment remains anemic and the underemployment rate of course is under reported yeah well first of all the auto market only did well because of a another bubble we had massive credit extended to unedit worthy borrowers I think that auto bubble has already bust and I think that you know we're going to start to see a contraction in Auto Sales I think we're going to see a lot of layoffs this year in the automobile industry in the in the in the parts industry you already have huge uh inventories that dealers can no longer sell so that bubble is burst uh the housing market is also a problem you know home ownership is near 50e low it was mainly speculators who were buying out these houses to rent but you know rents are going up and I think a lot of people are going to lose their jobs in this recession uh and yeah I mean the jobs we have been creating by and large have been low-paying jobs they're mostly part-time jobs or temporary jobs you know most of the jobs that we've been creating are for people who already have jobs they're people taking making second and third jobs and they don't want these jobs they'd rather have one good job but they're having to settle for three lousy jobs okay so the the underemployment rate is in double uh digits and of course the labor participation rate is as its lowest level possibly since they've been keeping records the Federal Reserve and and Janet Yellen uh you mentioned her of course um do you believe that in this election year and this final year of the Obama presidency she's going to do all she can she that she believes in her textbook mine to keep this country out of official recession yes I mean I think she wants to elect Hillary Clinton uh she doesn't want to hand the White House over to Republicans or Donald Trump uh and I think she doesn't want to have happen to Hillary what happened to to John McCain you know when you know the wheels came off the bus during the last year of the Bush Administration uh a republican had no chance and you know Obama's whole claim to fame is that he inherited a disaster and now everything is great the truth is he inherited a disaster and now it's a bigger disaster but he doesn't want the voters to know that in November and I think Janet Yellen is a team player I think she she looks at herself as a member of the Obama Administration she is a very partisan liberal Democrat and she doesn't want uh this thing to collapse until the election is over now I don't know if she's going to succeed I think she's going to try though okay so when you say try does that mean that on the heels of raising interest rates slightly she's going to drop interest rates slightly and does that mean another round of quantitative easing that's exactly what it means and you know the reason that for so long I was forecasting that that the FED would not raise rates at all is because I gave the fed too much credit I thought the FED would understand how foolish they would look and how much credibility they would lose if they raised rates and then had to reduce them back to zero and launch another round of QE because I always said If the Fed raised rates once that would be the only time they did it because the next me thing they would do would be an ease because I said at the FED raised rates they would prick their own bubble the stock market would tank and that's exactly what's happened okay China I want to bring that in here real quick uh we hear a lot of people say oh all this is because of China's economy uh that's not true is it in fact that China's economy would affect of course our exports but other than maybe the monetary issue but there isn't much there is there and it's not like we even export much to China we mainly import from China and we borrow a lot of money from China uh but China is not the cause neither is falling oil prices these problems are made in America the one of the few things that actually are but nobody wants to admit that so we want to come up with ways to rationalize what's happening to say oh there's nothing wrong here we're only reacting to the problems in other countries the truth is the Chinese market is more likely going down because of what's happening over here than we're going down because of what's happening over there okay I want you to finish this sentence uh Peter if Janet Yen does the opposite and she happens to want to raise interest rates again then what happens well then the bare Market is going to continue uh and it's going to be even harder for the president to get reelected because the stock market will keep falling so the the reverse wealth effect is going to come into play and we're still going to be in a recession but if the FED waits till the official knowledge of a recession right because you have to have two negative quarters right I think the fourth quarter of last year might be negative but it might be slightly positive and so if if the recession doesn't begin until this quarter and we have to wait till seven months before the FED admits for in recession you know how deep it's going to be by then and of course there'll be no time to try to stimulate before the November election so I think she only has a few more months to act what the FED is trying to do now is come up with a face saving excuse so they can try to blame it on some unforeseen event because you know they just blessed the recovery they said everything was great and they were data dependent and after seven years they finally raised rates if it turns out that they waited until we were in a recession to raise them I mean how incomp do they look okay Peter well the fact that you're not on the continental United States and you're in Puerto Rico I hope isn't a sign that you see some sort of financial Armageddon coming thanks again
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