저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Peter Schiff은 2015년 연준의 금리 인상이 주식시장 하락의 원인이며, 중국 위안화 약세와 자본유출도 이에 기인한다고 주장한다. 시장 진단: 연준이 버블을 터뜨렸고, 이후 0% 금리와 양적완화 7년간 문제가 오히려 악화되어 2008년 대침체가 본격 재개될 수 있다고 본다. 시장 하락은 연준이 입장을 바꿀 때까지 계속될 것이라고 한다. 경기 근거: 4분기 성장률이 1% 미만, 마이너스 가능성도 언급. 소매판매 부진, 기업 실적 감소, 다우 운송지수 약 30% 하락을 근거로 제시. 과거 나스닥 버블 붕괴, 서브프라임 때도 '억제되어 있다'는 낙관이 틀렸다고 주장. 하락폭 전망: 러셀2000은 이미 20% 이상 하락, 개별 종목은 그 이상. 조정(10%)과 약세장 판단 구간을 언급했으나 구체적 하락폭 목표는 연준의 태도에 달렸다고 함. 연준 전망: 연준이 양적완화(QE4 등)로 선회하거나 금리 인하를 해야 바닥이 형성된다고 봄. 1월 고용 등 데이터를 보며 연준이 약한 경제를 인정할 시점을 가늠. 대안 자산: 금은 보유 중이며 금리 인상 이후 소폭 상승했으나 충분하지 않다고 봄. 해외자산(스위스, 싱가포르, 뉴질랜드) 배당 자산 보유, 달러 강세가 꺾이면 크게 오를 것으로 전망. 미국 안전자산 지위 약화 시 자금이 대안 안전자산으로 이동할 것이라고 봄. 진행자 측: 진행자는 슈워츠의 주장을 평가하며 시장이 더 나빠질 것이라는 견해를 전하고, 대응 전략을 지켜보겠다고 마무리.
다듬은 글
bringing in Peter Schiff from europacific Capital always a great friend of ours on the show Peter last time we spoke you said the uh Fed rate hike was going to be disastrous for the market we have been down about 8% since that rate hike but certainly other factors out there have impacted the action that we're seeing China being one of them um want to get your take on what's Happening Now well I don't think what's happening in China is the reason for the market decline I think the reason the market is going down is because the fed pricked the bubble the FED raised rates now you can claim that one of the reasons that the Chinese market is selling off is because of what the FED did all these problems are emanating from the FED yet we're trying to rationalize it by trying to pretend that what's happening in the US Stock Market has to do with factors beyond our control and I think that is a way to rationalize what's happening so that people can continue with this narrative that everything is fine that the FED uh is you know we have a legitimate recovery that the FED can continue to raise interest rates and everything is going to be great when all we had was a bubble and all the problems that everybody believes were solved have actually been exacerbated during the seven years of 0% interest rates in quantitative easing and so now the Great Recession of 2008 is going to resume in Earnest because the problems are bigger than ever and I think the market is going to continue to be under some pressure until the FED rescues it you know Buller just threw it a bone this morning that might be why we're having a rally today by suggesting that oil prices being lower than he thought means that there won't be enough inflation and so maybe the FED should consider that uh when it hikes rates I think this is meant to kind of plate the markets you know bullet is a guy that saved the markets back in August of '08 when he August rather last year when he hinted uh qe4 right Peter let me ask you this and go back to the first point that you made that the uh bubble was pricked by the the FED here and that the FED has an impact on what's happening in China break that out for me a little bit more so the viewers really understand why the FED has an impact on uh the the negative uh sentiment that we've seen there well what's happening in China is you're having pressure on their currency Yuan because many other currencies have already dropped on anticipation of all these rate hikes that are never actually going to materialize so it's the weakness in Yuan that's causing the capital flight from the Chinese markets but all of that is based on the FED raising rates and the erroneous belief that a lot more rate hikes are going to follow that this is going to be some kind of normal tightening cycle it's not is that an belief because even since the first hike people have been discounting the fact that we're going to see four hikes this year nobody is saying that anymore well the FED is still saying that and but I don't think that it's going to happen and meanwhile look at where the re the economy is I mean we could already be in a recession the fourth quarter is going to be extremely weak it it'll probably be below 1% it might even be negative we'll see uh for the fourth quarter of of last year but for the first quarter of this year there is a very good chance we're going to have a negative number look at how disastrous all the retail sales have been corporate earnings are declining many these stocks are blowing up look at the transports the Dow transports are down at close to 30% I mean this is the most economically sensitive indicate uh average and they should be benefiting from the cheap oil prices instead the index is collapsing people are whistling past the graveyard here it's very reminiscent of after the NASDAQ Bubble Burst everybody said oh don't worry about that it's confined it's just one segment of the market there's nothing to worry about it's not going to affect the economy they said the same thing in 20072 2008 when the subprime bubble burst oh don't worry about it it's contained a subprime it's just housing it's not going to affect the economy this PE when people believe something that's false they tend to hold on to those beliefs and it takes a long time before they finally concede uh that what they were believing all along was not true Peter how do you think we could go down as I mentioned we're down about 8% since that last rate hike 10% is where we start to consider it a correction a bare Market um what do you see happening this year in terms of a a percentage basis how much we can drop well you've already got I think more than 20% into Russell 2000 and you know and there are many individual stocks that are down a lot more than 20% so you've got some of these stocks that are that kind of masking the weakness but it all depends on the fed's pain tolerance yeah you know that the markets are going to drop until the FED changes the game so when is the Fed going to take away the rate hikes when are they going to cut when are they going to launch Q4 because that's the only thing that's going to put a floor beneath the market because the economy is going into recession uh corporate earnings are going to continue to fall why should the market not go up the entire reason the market rallied was based on the FED I mean they'll even admit this they deliberately engineered a stock market rally to create a wealth effect well that phony wealth caused the economy to do things that it shouldn't have done people behaved in ways that they wouldn't have behaved had they not had all this phony wealth well now that that phony wealth is disappearing we have to basically correct all the damage and so there's nothing really for the market to do to go down until the FED comes back with more QE uh Brian quick question for Peter Well my question would be Peter we know that you love gold obviously but given all these circumstances that you're outlining here where are you putting your money besid gold where are you putting your money right now are you just standing on the sideline waiting for the FED to do something then you'll buy stocks or are you going into bonds right now what are you doing I mean I no I I'm still I'm still invested I'm just not invested in the US and obviously the strength of the dollar is hurting the value of all of my International uh Investments but I am waiting for the FED to capitulate for the FED to admit uh that the economy is weaker than they believed and that they're going to do more stimulus and I believe that is going to be very good for the foreign investments that I'm holding and yes I do hold gold and gold has risen somewhat uh since the FED hiked rates but it really hasn't risen that substantially because people still believe in the myth of this recovery they still believe the US economy is the you know the cleanest uh dirty shirt in the hamper and I don't think it's even close to being true and I agree with your previous guest I think people are overestimating the problems overseas I think overseas economies are in much better shape than generally perceived and I think the single biggest thing undermining some of the overseas economies is the belief that the dollar is going to continue to rally is the belief that the FED is going to raise rates once they realize that that's not true and the dollar starts to fall that's going to take a lot of pressure off these Global economies that's going to provide a lot of relief for those markets and I think there's a lot of opportunities for profits once the story reverses you actually you make a lot of good points here but I want to go back to the FED for a moment if the scenario that you're laying out is accurate and it does happen and we see sort of a reversal from the FED when do you think that that could happen when are they going to sort of take that step back well you know it's hard to know I mean it seems to me that the only data that they seem to care about are the jobs data you know we got another supposedly strong non far but all the other economic data is lousy so I don't know maybe we get a very weak uh jobs report uh in early uh February for for January uh you know I don't know we're getting some more economic data tomorrow uh retail I mean is retail sales I think uh consumer comp there's some numbers coming out tomorrow that'll probably be bad uh but so far the FED is not acknowledge any of the bad data I think it's afraid to acknowledge it because it doesn't want to admit how bad the economy is because it's trying to create a false sense of confidence uh but at some point they're going to have to acknowledge the weakness that's there and maybe it'll be with the the jobs numbers Peter you mentioned uh foreign investment you mentioned investing abroad what are some of the things that you like out there that you can uh recommend or some of these strategies that you're employing yeah well because the dollar has risen so much based on these false expectations assets that I like in countries that are really in much better shape whether it's in Singapore or whether it's in New Zealand or whether it's in Switzerland there are quality assets that people can buy that generate substantial dividends in Swiss Franks in kiwi dollars in Singapore dollars that I believe are going to rise dramatically once the dollar turns and I also believe that once people really perceive the gravity of the problems in the United States that the United States will no longer uh be a safe haven and money is going to flow into alternative Safe Haven markets and I believe that the markets that I'm investing in are going to be the beneficiaries of those flows once perception changes and I also think it's going to change for gold I think when people realize the extent to which the dollar is going to decline and how much inflation is actually going to be created by the Federal Reserve that the balance sheet is not going to shrink back down it's going to explode out of control it's going to be a game changer uh for gold as well all right Peter thank you for coming on and we are very fair on this show little bit of a Victory lap for Peter shiff uh and Peter is saying that things are going to get worse so certainly we're going to be watching uh and see how to trade this as well Peter thanks and we'll see you soon
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