저자: EdYardeni추정,진행자:CFP · 외국인
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S&P 500이 2024년 5400, 2025년 말 6000까지 오를 수 있다는 강세 전망을 소개한다. 강세 근거: 이익이 사상 최고치에 근접하고, AI 등 기술에 따른 생산성 향상으로 향후 경제가 활력을 얻는다는 주장이다. 실업률이 4% 이하인 점도 경기 회복력의 근거로 제시된다. 시장 이력: 역사적으로 5년마다 하락, 7~8년마다 약세장이 오며 2023년 10월 저점 이후 상승세가 이어졌다. 2023년 말 4600 도달 예측이 언급된다. 투자 시나리오: S&P 500이 6000에 도달하면 약 30% 상승, 2년간 약 90% 상승 가능성이 거론된다. 다만 예측이 빗나갈 수 있으니 2025년 말에는 매도를 고려하라는 조언도 함께 나온다. 리스크: 1970년대식 인플레이션 재현 가능성과 1920년대식 호황 가능성 중 후자에 더 무게를 둔다. 분산투자의 필요성도 강조되며, TMF(레버리지 채권)가 강세라는 언급이 있다. 출연자 전망: 주식시장 상승을 전제로 한 낙관적 전망을 제시하며, 시청자에게 6000 도달 여부에 대한 의견을 댓글로 달라고 요청한다.
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what's going on y'all hope all is well another episode of comos with the cfp Mario pain and beautiful but cold Jacksonville Florida just got back man my throat Kelling me talking man I had a great combo over the weekend with Mr Don and himself so we you talk about that another episode had about a 10-minute conversation with him about success CNN what's next for him is book so it's pretty cool man support your universities just like Tennessee State University had a great graduation um as you know I'm on the foundation board I help but talking about foundations and helping the market cracking right now we're gonna talk about Ed yardian and what he thinks in 2024 and 25 and why some people call him the Oracle of oracles when it comes to the bull market before we get started though like subscribe share our Channel we'll continue to grow thank y'all almost at 11,000 on the ground at painful profits.com so we appreciate you guys support but let's see what Ed says about this bull market and how we gonna run it up next year welcome back I mean it's one it's one thing to be bullish but that's like off the charts bullish why so well I didn't know that it's really off the charts it's actually consistent with the underlying trend of earnings and the stock market for years every now and then we do get these recessions and Corrections uh we certainly had a bare market last year it was a fairly very true right every five years the market historically every five years the market goes down uh every seven to eight years we have a bare Trend but when that happens my friends my profit teers it goes up happening this year next year oh boy the conventional one with a 25% drop then we made a low uh in October of last year and we're up substantially since then we had a conventional correction during the during the summer and uh now uh since October 27th we we're back in what I think has been a bull market since the year before that and I think the economy is proven to be resilient uh I didn't very resilient I mean unemployment being under 4% in this quote unquote recession or soft Landing whatever y'all want to call it nowadays but to his point man the market has been resilient fed they're feding around doing what they GNA do but Market is very resilient right now so by the idea that it's going to fall into recession it's been more of a rolling recession but earnings are are about to hit an all-time record high and I think next year's economy is going to get a big Boost from from productivity everybody talks about Ai and all the other Technologies they're all out there to increase productivity and I think that's what's going to happen AI is Big so you think about production right if AI can turn a person who's working an eight hour job now to have another three or four hours of production but chat gbt instead of you thinking about something for half the day you think about something for 15 minutes and it spits it out so much more can be done more is done more profits made when more profits made companies make more money 24 might be a good year y'all 5400 on the S&P 500 oh my profit tear 2025 year end it seems hard to to look out that far but nonetheless 6,000 on 20% for 2024 20% for 2025 oh my goodness man that means my clients go double their money because we usually do double in the market but uhuh S&P I mean so the the implication here is that this isn't just a a bull market this is a a new very powerful bu Market that we've started yeah well I've been uh discussing the alternative scenarios for the decade since the beginning of the decade 200 in 2020 I look at that profiteers look at that to the right 4600 by the end of 2023 he's close to that 5400 5400 in 2024 and the S&P 500 being at 6,000 by the end of 2025 if he is correct my profiteers it's going to be a lot of Rich individuals getting at least but want to be careful cuz all predictions aren't correct that does happen though at the end of 2025 y'all better be selling because it's probably gon to go down and correct itself I said look it's either going to be the a repeat of the great inflation of the 1970s or it could very well be something more like the 1920s uh the Roaring 2020s and I'm increasingly convinced that it's going to be the Roaring 2020s with the technological innovations solving the m major economic problem we have right now is labor shortages skill labor shortages and productivity I think is going to be growing three and a half to four and a half% within the next couple years within this decade and the Roaring 2020s so profiteers Mr yardin is correct well if so we're going to look at some things tied to indexes that might give you a little bit of juice on the upside so profit is let's look at the charts and what do the charts say oh man so he's saying right now now we're over 4600 so he is correct for the year but in 2024 if the S&P 500 gets to 5400 uh oh uh oh uh oh man 16% bring it down son 15% 15% pretty pretty pretty good now if he's also correct and we look at 6,000 by 2025 that's basically my friends 30% so he's looking at a 30% game now 30% seems good in the S&P 500 but what if we're able to get into the S&P 500 and take advantage on the upside even more well let's look at this profiteers youo now from a RIS standpoint my profiteers from a RIS standpoint youo is risky right if the market goes up by 1% you make three but if the Market goes down by 1% you lose three so if it goes down by 10% you lose 30% so it's risky but if you think longterm over three years or two years that the Market's going to go up another basic 30% here my profiteers you'll make 90% so the same thought process from a calculation standpoint we look here today is at $51 a share oh man I got to scroll down more is going up so much oh so that means means basically this is going to go from $51 a share to $98 a share 90% in two years almost doubling your money is it GNA happen we don't know you want to be Diversified we don't want to put all the eggs in one basket when it comes to stocks you want to be Diversified between sectors Emerging Markets even bonds like my TMF that's booming right now but if he's correct and we have a 30% jump over the next two years next year loone 15% my profit tier is making 90% on you ain't nothing wrong with that so there you have it profiteers if yard is Right a lot of money to be made and if so you might want to look at youpro some things that give us some juice up but be Diversified though because if it goes down you're gonna lose more anyways comment below you guys in the market you think it's really going to hit over 6,000 in two years let's make some painful profits together y'all peace and you just want to get paid tired of making no money mistakes make a payment on your bills and you still late yeah pay for profits to help you seek change uh and you just want to get paid yeah tired of making no money mistakes make a payment on your bills and you still late uh pay for profits to help you seek change yeah don't just listen you want to feel ower by making money decisions residual by the hours can get you a better living bch at the check you knowing it could be different for you know
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