저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 소액 투자자는 기관보다 유리한 점이 많으니, 자신이 무엇을 보유하는지 이해하고 서두르지 않는 것이 핵심이다. 피터 린치의 1977~1990년 마젤란 펀드 운용 성과(연평균 29.2%)와 소액 투자자의 장점(외부 압력 없음, 기민한 매매, 장기 보유 가능)을 소개한다. 소액 투자자 다수가 부진한 이유는 자신이 산 주식을 설명하지 못하기 때문이라고 주장한다. 린치의 '무엇을 보유하는지 알라'는 원칙을 강조하며, 2분 내에 10살 아이에게 설명할 수 없다면 보유하지 말아야 한다고 말한다. 복잡한 기술주에 얽매이기보다 이해하기 쉬운 단순한 사업(예: 던킨도넛)에 투자하라는 사례가 제시된다. 린치 본인은 던킨도넛에서 10~15배 수익을 냈다고 언급한다. 사람들이 노트북은 수 시간 조사하면서 주식은 지인 추천이나 기사 몇 개만 보고 큰돈을 넣는다고 지적한다. 진행자 본인도 PC 구매에는 오래 조사했지만 한 주식에는 기사 몇 개만 보고 2,000달러를 투자해 실패한 경험을 공유한다. 서두르지 말 것을 강조한다. 월마트(1970 상장)와 마이크로소프트 사례를 들어, 몇 년 기다려도 큰 수익이 가능하다고 설명한다. 주식은 복권이 아니라 회사이며 충분한 시간을 두고 조사해야 한다고 말한다. 린치의 사례로 스미스클라인(타가멧)과 크라이슬러 미니밴, 포드 토러스 등을 들며, 일상과 직업에서 얻은 우위(edge)를 활용하라고 권한다. 워런 버핏·찰리 멍거의 '능력 범위(circle of competence)' 개념과 연결한다. 결론적으로 린치의 '무엇을 보유하는지 알라' 원칙이 가장 중요하며, 이를 알면 가격 변동 시에도 합리적으로 대응할 수 있다고 정리한다. 이 영상에는 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언이 없다.
다듬은 글
i frankly think it's a tragedy in america that the small investor has been convinced by the media the print media the the radio the television media that they don't have a chance they don't the big institutions with all their computers and all their degrees and all their money have all the edges and it just isn't true at all so that right there is peter lynch he's one of the world's best investors and he ran the fidelity magellan fund between 1977 and 1990 where he averaged 29.2 annually over that 13-year period so he is a phenomenally successful investor and you may also know him he is the author of course of a very famous stock market book called one up on wall street and as that first clip suggests peter lynch is definitely an advocate of the small investor he's actually the one that taught me that as a small investor a retail investor you actually have heaps of advantages over the big institutional investors for example no pressure from outside investors being nimble in the stock market being able to get in and out of positions basically whenever we want and also having no pressure like we can hold stocks for an ultra long period of time with no pressure on us to perform these are all very big advantages of the small retail investor that most people don't even realize they have but one thing that has always bothered peter lynch is that most small retail investors do terribly despite having all of these advantages where they should be able to outperform the big dogs and above all else there is one main reason for this and it's a point that peter lynch has been talking about for decades the single single most important thing to me in the stock market for anyone is to know what you own i'm amazed how many people own stocks they would not be able to tell you why they own it they couldn't say in a minute or less why they don't actually you really press them down they'd say the reason i own this is the suckers going up and that's the only reason that's the only reason they own it and if you can't explain i'm serious you can't explain to a ten-year-old and two minutes or less why you own a stock you should own it and that's true i think about 80 percent of people that own stocks and this is the kind of stock people like to own this is the kind of company people adore owning is a relatively simple company they make a very uh narrow easy to understand product they make a one megabit sram cmos bipolar risk floating point data io array processor with an optimizing compiler a 16 dual port memory a double diffused metal oxide semiconductor monolithic logic chip for the plasma matrix vacuum fluorescent display it has a 16 bit dual memory it has a unix operating system for whetstone megaflop poly silicon emitter a high bandwidth that's very important six gigahertz double metallization communication protocol and asynchronous backward compatibility peripheral bus architecture four wave interleaved memory a token ring interchange backplane and a dozen 15 nanoseconds of capability now if you own a piece of crap like that you will never make money never somebody will come along with more wet stones or less wet stones or a bigger megaflop or a smaller megaflop you won't have the farthest idea what's happening and people buy this junk all the time this is a really good example of what most small investors do in the stock market they think it's a complicated place so they over complicate it for themselves they want to get in on these very complicated businesses that are on the forefront of technology in the forefront of innovation which is totally fine but oftentimes they do that when they don't actually understand what they're getting into and peter uses humor really well in this clip talking about you know what happens when the next company comes along with more wet stones or less wet stones what are you going to do about your investment i don't know but it's important to realize one thing that's important to remember is that it doesn't need to be this complicated if you just look for simple businesses that you can understand i made money in dunkin donuts i could understand it i uh when there was recessions i didn't have to worry about what was happening i could go there and people were still there i didn't have to worry about low price korean imports i mean i just didn't know you know i can understand it and you laugh i made 10 or 15 times my money in dunkin donuts those are the kind of stocks i can understand if you don't understand it doesn't work this is the single biggest principle and it bothers me that people are very careful their money the public when they buy a refrigerator they got to consume reports they buy a microwave oven they do that they ask people what's the best kind of radar range what kind of car to buy they do research on apartments when they go to when they go on a trip to wyoming they get the mobile travel guide or california when they go to europe they get the michelin travel guide people will hear a tip on the bus on some stock and they'll put half their life savings in it before sunset and they wonder why they lose money in the stock market and when they lose money they blame it on the institutions in program training that is garbage they didn't do any research they put a piece of junk they didn't look at the balance sheet and that's what you get for it how true is that people do hours and hours of research on like what laptop to buy big investment you know new laptop they look up all the specs and whatnot but then they'll go to the footy or they'll go to the pub and you know jono told me about this really hot stock that he's bought and it's gone up 10 so you know i'll dump a couple of thousand dollars into that stock as well and unfortunately i wish i could laugh but this one it hits pretty close to home because when i first started out investing i have an exact example of this for me and the example for me was at the time i was going in to buy a new computer and i spent so so long learning about computers all of the different components and making sure they're all compatible with each other and if they're going to work well with each other and i ended up building this pc it cost me like 2 000 at the time it had an intel i7 processor which was really speedy you know i had the nvidia gtx 560 graphics card which was like oh really at the forefront at the time um i had a one terabyte hdd a one terabyte hard drive wow that was just you would never need that amount of space on a computer but i got it anyway anyway i spent about two thousand dollars on this uh this computer and around about the same time i was big into just like reading motley full articles and i remember reading like five motley full articles that talked about this one stock in a positive light so i i sunk about two thousand dollars into this stock i mean how crazy is that i spent all of what an afternoon just researching this one stock really i didn't even research i was just looking at these motley fool articles and on the flip side i would spend days and days actually i probably spent weeks learning about computers to be able to effectively build this pc and spend as little on it as possible that's just stupid and you won't be surprised to hear at all that that investment that i made way back when did absolutely terribly so like number one rule of investing know what you own take the time understand the company that you are putting your hard-earned money into stocks are not lottery tickets there's a company behind every stock if a company does well the stock does well it's not that complicated people get too carried away another key element is that you have plenty of time give her an unbelievable rush to buy a stock i'll give an example of a well-known company walmart went public in october of 1970 1970 went public already had a great record it had 15 years performance great balance sheet you could have waited 10 years saying you're a very conservative investor you're not sure this walmart can make it you want to check you're you see them operating small towns you're afraid they can only make it in seven or eight states you want to wait till they go to more states you keep waiting you can about walmart 10 years after they went public and made 35 times your money if you bought it when they went public you would have made 500 times your money but you can wait 10 years after walmart went public and made uh 30 over 30 times your money you could wait three years after microsoft went public and made 10 times your money now if you knew something about software i know nothing about software if you know someone software you would said these guys have it i don't care who's going to win compact ibm i don't know who's going to win japanese computers i know microsoft ms-dos is the right thing you could buy microsoft again i'm repeating myself stocks are not a lottery ticket there's a company behind every stock and you can just watch it you have plenty of time people are in an amazing rush to purchase the security they're out of breath when they call up you don't need to do this so peter lynch's number one rule is definitely to know what you own but a lot of the reason why people end up owning stocks they don't understand is because they rush so i'm really glad that peter brings up this point in this talk if you want to be a really successful investor then just don't rush you know great companies are still going to be great companies in three to six months from now okay don't succumb to the fear of missing out as you are just starting to research a stock okay you take it from like any investor take it from me take it from any investor it's a much much better strategy to wait on the sidelines while you're researching a company than to start the process by investing in the company and then do your due diligence after the fact so take it from peter lynch take your time don't rush and make sure you understand what you're buying before you buy it all right this last clip i want to show you is is talking about how to actually go about building a stock portfolio where you do know what you own you need an edge to make money too people have incredible edges and they throw them away i'll give you a quick example of uh smith klein this is a stocking that had tagamet now you didn't have to buy smith klein when tag met was doing critical trials you don't have to buy smith klein with tag met was talked about in the new england journal of medicine or the british version lancet you could have bought smith klein when tagamet first came out a year after came out let's say your spouse your mother your father you're a nurse you're a drugged you're writing all these prescriptions tagamet was doing an amazing job of curing ulcers and it was a wonderful pill for the company because if you just stopped taking it the ulcer came back see it was a wooden crummy product that he took it for a buck and it went away but it was a great product for the company but you could have bought it two years after the product was on the market and made five or six times your money i mean all the drugs all the nurses all the people millions of people saw this product and they're out buying oil companies you know or drilling rings you know it happens so you only need a few stocks in your lifetime they're in your industry i think of people if you've worked in the auto industry let's say you're an auto dealer the last 10 years you would've seen chrysler come up with a minivan you've seen if you're a buick dealer a toyota deal honda dealer you would have seen the chrysler dealership packed with people you could have made 10 times your money on chrysler a year after the minivan came out ford introduces the taurus sable the most successful line of cars in the last 20 years ford went up seven fold on the tourist stable so if you're a car dealer you only need to buy a few stocks every decade when your lifetime's over you don't need a lot of five baggers to make a lot of money starting with ten thousand dollars or five thousand dollars so in your own industry you're gonna see a lot of stocks and that's what bothers me they're good stocks out there looking for you and people just aren't listening and they're just not watching it and this all circles back to say it with me the circle of competence right the best way you're going to know what you own is to stay focused on companies that you bump into on a daily or a weekly basis you know what industry you work in what devices you use what websites you browse what meals you buy what movies you watch and so on you don't realize it but you already know a lot about a lot of companies so stay within your circle of competence stay around those companies where you have an edge say you watch a hell of a lot of tv you've seen every tv series under the sun and you know that for example netflix's library is much much better than what's offered on disney plus or on prime video that's your edge say you work as an accountant right you've just switched to a different accounting software and this new accounting software is like 10 times better than that old accounting software that you used to use that's like the industry standard there's an edge say you work in construction and you notice that there's this one company that has like twice as many projects on the go as all the other companies well again there's your edge and it's crazy as peter lynch says in this clip it's like these people are out there buying oil companies it's just buying stuff that they don't understand overall as peter lynch says you're going to do far far better if you stay where stay within those areas of business where you've got your edge warren buffett and charlie munger would say you stay within your circle of competence phil town would say you stay around companies that have some sort of meaning to you peter lynch obviously just says you have to know what you own so overall they are that's kind of peter lynch's breakdown on the absolute most important rule of investing definitely have to know what you own you have to take the time to research and understand what you're getting yourself into before you buy it and it doesn't have to be the most complicated thing in the world as he said at the start you don't have to buy the 50 teraflop this that and the other technical computer company if you don't understand computers if you just worked in construction your whole life then just look at construction companies because that's where you find your edge and that's how you will know what you own and if you know what you own you make far better investing decisions and you understand what to do when the price goes up or goes down you could understand that there's a lull in the construction industry but over the next three or four years that's going to pick right back up no worries if the stocks go down you're like yes all right three years it'll be fine you know on the other hand if the stock was if a construction stock was going down you look at that company you go oh yeah they've just been done breaching a whole lot of different construction-related laws they're really going down the toilet then you can get out of that company and look at something else in the industry so it just helps you a lot and knowing what you own is definitely the first fundamental step in constructing a a successful portfolio but anyway guys that is where i will leave this video let me know what you think down in the comments section below of course subscribe to the channel if you're interested in similar videos to this leave a like on the video if you did enjoy it or if you found it useful if you're interested in how i go about my investing either passive or active investing you can check out profitful links down the description below where i've made two completely in-depth courses about those two different investing strategies uh stock market investing i'm sorry introduction to stock analysis is the course that is actually heavily inspired by how peter lynch goes about his investing so if you're interested you can check that out all in the next video you
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