저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
경기 둔화가 '롤링 리세션'에서 '올앳원스(동시적 침체)' 국면으로 진입 중이라 주장하며, 디플레이션 신호와 PMI·고용지표 악화를 근거로 제시. 엔비디아는 CUDA 생태계 해자(10년 선점 우위)를 근거로 경쟁자 대비 우위가 지속된다고 평가. 엔화 캐리 트레이드 청산으로 시장 조정이 진행 중이라고 설명.
다듬은 글
from now on they will be divided into two sections the first will include the team's other members and their most recent research or thoughts on breaking news and the second will be the drill however as you have undoubtedly witnessed the markets are moving quite quickly both before and after the drill the stock markets are undergoing a substantial correction the recent week has seen a correction with commodity prices declining and in certain situations collapsing and bond yields dropping pretty sharply yield spreads or the difference between the rates on high yield bonds and treasury bills or treasury bonds are beginning to widen fear is therefore permeating the markets in a variety of ways and through a wide range of indicators I would like to present our point of view which we do have if you've been paying attention you've heard it here before but for those who haven't let me explain slowly then all at once since the FED began Rising interest rates in 2022 there has been a rolling recession which is what we have been discussing housing essentially entered a recession when the FED began hiking interest rates real estate offices and Commercial Real Estate were already experiencing a downturn multif family real estate now appears to be a problem Autos have been known to stall out they have bottomed out at mediocre or subnormal expansion rates but have sort of stabilized Capital expenditures are declining consumer confidence is declining if you look at sales housing was starting to gather up steam and has since regressed once more after a creeping recession it appears that we are currently in the all- at once phase a lot of people are starting to realize and we believe that maybe the notion that inflation is the issue has been misguided and that this rolling recession will stop when prices decline I have been stating that the danger is deflation or a decline in prices it's evident from listening to Amazon's report last night that customers desire and receive reduced costs the customer isn't crumbling just yet in fact it's reacting to some of the cheaper costs even for cars however declining prices will cause their margins to contract which is an issue for businesses thus deflationary signals are the cause of the all at once the purchasing manager index or PMI was released this week and the employment report was released today they are both recessionary thus the notion that we're in a recession is starting to catch on the S rule which is essentially the unemployment rate increasing by 50 basis points on a 3month moving average basis compared to its low was actually triggered by the unemployment report the recession is now on the minds of many more individuals then when we say everything at once something like 08 09 we're not even thinking the rolling recession component of this scenario would actually contradict that therefore while we do not advocate for such we do think that the current emphasis on pricing power will be important it's important because as you may recall inflation was also at double digits in the early 1980s when fed chairman vulker was attempting to choke off inflation by imposing double- digigit interest rates therefore that was a significant buffer in case he made a mistake since our inflation rates are significantly lower now the FED really has less leeway higher for longer in my opinion and assuming that inflation was the main danger has put us in danger however comprehending the issue is half the answer thus I believe that this cathartic moment is beneficial these repairs are hard in the near- term because there is a lot of misunderstanding many people thought that the world would operate in a certain way but now it doesn't the notion that the carry trade which Believe It or Not involves the yen is winding down is one of the things you'll hear about more and more in the Press I suspect in light of this a lot of investors and speculators borrowed Yen which is what is meant by the carry trade they were therefore essentially short Yen because interest rates in Japan were so low in comparison to the rest of the globe they took out a loan in Yen as a result they borrowed money there and then reinvested it in dollar-based assets or other currencies but mostly the dollar frequently in our treasury bonds which were paying higher yields it was somewhat safe because the Yen has been either constant or declining since 2011 you weren't taking on a lot of danger if you were betting to short or borrow the Yen actually you benefited from a decline in the value of the yen in addition to receiving higher interest rates in the United States some believe that borrowing Yen and then purchasing the mag 6 or one of the widely used benchmarks in the United States such as the S and p500 or the NASDAQ 100 which are both massively inhabited and weighted with the mag 6 was a component of the to carry trade once more the extent of this is unknown some guesses are made according to a study by DUI Bank it might be $2 trillion now consider that we have about $25 trillion in GDP can you image this $2 trillion carry trade which was turning into a consensus trade I'm not sure if that's accurate to put it another way I think the current value of the world's share markets is about $130 trillion therefore $20 trillion is likewise a very substantial market exchange when compared to $130 trillion therefore we are unsure of the precise number seeing how sharply the yen is actually strengthening now that this carry trade is ending makes sense those who placed bets on the Yen's continued depreciation are now shifting their positions either they are reducing their losses or they are being forced to sell due to margin calls if you need any changes or more explanations please let me know being closely observed particularly due to the vast amounts of Enterprise data that both businesses own earlier this week Microsoft CEO Saia nadela predicted that I agents would eventually be just as commonplace as apps Salis Force has already introduced its agents via the agent force platform this installed base whether through gaming or supercomputing is the concept of digital assets we frequently discuss things like this in relation to Apple but not as much in relation to Nvidia it is implied that the existence of some competitors is irrelevant because nvidia's consumers will continue to use the improved chips that the company has produced over the years this brings up the idea of the so-called ecology many rivals make the claim that their processor is superior to nidus which is always up for debate even if it were true though it's probably insufficient the chip isn't everything it includes everything that surrounds it including the chip software hardware and systems engineering because of this it's incredibly simple to purchase Invidia products install them and get going in a matter of days without having to make any changes it may take months for many rivals Goods to become functional AMD has even provided evidence of this in order to get the systems knowledge that Nvidia developed naturally they just acquired gz systems in addition to Gathering those capabilities on the software side AMT has been making Acquisitions they haven't had as much success expanding such capacities though although the Silicon is obviously the main focus there is much more to it than that everything that surrounds it makes adoption simple customers are easier to retain once they have become familiar with nvidia's products according to extremely optimistic investors this indicates that Nvidia has a moat it's something more robust and potent than just a first mover Advantage the first mover Advantage is always the starting point now let's examine the software although Cuda encompasses many diverse Concepts it was first developed more than 15 years ago that's a huge Advantage for being the first other players are only beginning Nvidia has a 10year Advantage even though they have only been working to expand their ecosystem for a few years ecosystems are difficult to break once they are established after decades the windows ecosystem which includes x86 and Windows PCS is just now beginning to break ecosystems have tremendous power once they are developed
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