저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
금 4400달러·은 65달러 부근, 아시아 매수세가 강하다고 주장. 미국 국가부채가 곧 40조달러를 넘을 것이며 월간 부채 증가가 크다고 진단. 엔화 159엔대 약세로 일본 개입 한계와 추가 개입 필요를 경고. 트럼프의 금리 인하 압박과 양적완화 재개를 비판하며 탈달러 흐름 재부상을 주장.
다듬은 글
Gold prices are now above 4400. Buying is coming from Asia, and in our time zone in the US there is a small pullback. Foreign central banks are hoarding gold. As you know, the national debt now exceeds 39.85 trillion. Because if they don't, it will put more pressure on inflation and long-term interest rates in Japan.
and Japanese government bond yields will come under pressure from the falling yen, so more intervention will be needed . I said that's exactly how it will be. I hope I'm wrong about this. But I was not mistaken. This is n't 100% accurate, is it? I mean, they could have done something to salvage the situation, but it all seems pretty obvious.
In fact, the main reason the markets haven't crashed, in my opinion, is because of the huge rally based on all those stupid stories about the war being over, we've won, and the strait being open. The reason the markets didn't lose all those gains when they realized it was all nonsense is because the CPI doesn't even tell the truth about how bad inflation is because of the way it's calculated.
Gold prices are currently above 4400, 4407 as I record this video on Wednesday afternoon. The market has been closed for about an hour and a half. At some point during the day we were a little higher. I think we closed about $25 below the daily highs. Silver has had a larger pullback from the highs, but is trading above 65, at 65.21.
Earlier today it was above 66. So it was already strong. Precious metals were generally stronger even before we got the CPI data, and they became slightly stronger as a result of the CPI, but not significantly. And you know what I find interesting is that the last few trading days the profits have been happening in Asia all at once.
Buying is coming from Asia, and in our time zone in the US there is a slight pullback. And if you remember when we had the big rallies in gold and silver that ended when the Iran war started, in late February, early March, if you remember those days, and I talked about it on the podcast, but in those days we saw all the strength in Asia.
Obviously, that's where the buying comes from, right? The Chinese buy when they are awake, not when we are awake . This is when they sleep. So, the main purchases are coming from Asia, which is logical, because that's where all the surpluses are concentrated, and that's why they're accumulating— foreign central banks are accumulating gold, and I think this trend, the de-dollarization trend, is back, and Asian purchases are becoming a signal while Western investors are focused on the headlines.
Peter Schiff notes that gold prices above $4,400 and silver above $65 are strengthening during Asian trading, indicating demand from markets that are accumulating physical reserves. The problem being ignored is not today's reaction to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but who is consistently buying while America is still asleep.
For long-term investors, this pattern is important because institutional accumulation can precede significant asset revaluation . Peter Schiff goes on to explain why dedollarization is quietly making a comeback while Western markets dismiss these warnings. The catastrophic situation we have created in Iran.
And I'll talk more about that in the last segment of the podcast. But this, in my opinion, fuels the revival of the de-dollarization trend. But in the meantime, I want to focus a little on debt. You know that the national debt is now over 39.85 trillion. So we are less than $150 billion away from $40 trillion, and we will obviously reach that mark within the next month, because last month we accumulated over $400 billion in debt in just one month.
And so we only need about 150 billion to get to 40 trillion. This is the main number. This is something that investors should pay attention to. Everything else is just noise. Monthly CPI figures are irrelevant. They will obviously grow because of what we do in the fiscal area, which ultimately stimulates monetary policy.
And actually, look at Trump, he's been ramping up the pressure again over the last week on Lisa Cook, hasn't he? He's trying to get rid of Lisa Cook because he wants to replace her with another shill who will vote to lower interest rates. This is what he wants. Trump wants rate cuts. He wants more quantitative easing.
But of course, we already have more quantitative easing. In fact , look at the Japanese yen. I already talked about this. We are above 159 again. The effects of the intervention are disappearing. Soon it will be above 160 again, which means they will have to intervene to stop the yen from falling. The most dangerous figure here is not inflation, but how quickly the debt approaches the next psychological threshold.
According to Peter Schiff, a national debt of nearly $40 trillion is inevitable after more than $400 billion was added in a single month . Such rates make the consumer price index an outdated indicator, while fiscal pressures drive monetary policy forward, especially against the backdrop of the loss of effectiveness of Japan's interventions in the yen.
Ultimately, depositors feel the consequences through currency depreciation and erosion of purchasing power. Peter Schiff goes on to explain why Japan's currency crisis could force another round of monetary intervention. Because if they don't, it will increase pressure on inflation and long-term interest rates in Japan.
Japanese government bond yields will come under pressure due to the falling yen. So, new interventions will be needed. And what does that mean? This means that the Bank of Japan or the country itself must hand over more US Treasury bonds to the Fed, which the Fed will buy back, so that Japan does not have to sell them.
By the way, an interesting point that I didn't mention last time: the maturity of these repo agreements is 30 days . So theoretically, Japan should buy these bonds back from the Fed in 30 days. And what are the chances that they will do it? After all, where will they get the money to buy them back? Obviously, if they had spare dollars, they wouldn't have to resort to such swaps at all.
So, they definitely won't do it. So what will they do? Will they just keep renewing these deals every 30 days? And what will happen then? I'm not sure what would happen if the Fed or Japan just said: we don't want to buy them. That is, I don't know if they are obligated to buy them out or if it's just a choice.
I think they will decide to just leave them with the Fed, and then the Fed will stay with them. Then it would be pure quantitative easing, right? Because the Fed will actually buy back these bonds, but instead of going to the market, it will just buy them directly from Japan.
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