저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연방준비제도 발언(Waller)을 근거로 3~4회 금리인하 가능성과 6월 인하 확률 상승을 언급. 1분기 해고 증가 및 노동시장 둔화 우려를 제기. 비트코인은 트럼프 행정부의 전략적 비트코인 비축 기대로 긍정적 평가, Tesla는 Wells Fargo의 $125 목표가를 인용하며 비관적 시각 소개(본인 견해는 불분명). 미국 채금리 상승은 성장 기대 반영 가능성, 채권 풋→콜 전환을 언급. 강연 홍보 및 일상 팁 위주.
다듬은 글
Starship blows up while the bottom half gets caught planes in danger jany Yellen gets hacked ghoul spe flipflops at the FED as Waller starts yapping his trap and what does he tell us about the market what's going on with the no tax on tips and are there a few surprises in this legislation yes there's apparently a life-threatening polar vortex coming over the next week oops and dry January creates some problems for alcohol sales but bitcoin's up and Tik Tok might not end up getting banned yet there's a ton to talk about here so let's get started on today's meet Kevin report the PM Edition news that makes you money more cold coffee well welcome back everyone Janet yellen's computer was hacked apparently by Chinese hackers this is now the second time that the treasury Department has been hacked I always wonder if the United States is conducting hacks like this in China I'm sure we are and maybe either we're just not getting in or we're so good we just don't get detected I really hope that's the case but I don't know how to transition from where I'm going with that line to the FBI just closed down its Dei Department in December so who knows maybe the odds of us being able to successfully hack the Chinese with our government officials will go up I have no idea but that's what some people are speculating anyway it's kind of sad that our government officials keep getting hacked given that Donald Trump has been hacked K Harris has been hacked Jan Yellen has been hacked and it seems like we never do anything to actually punish China or Chinese hackers for hacking us anywh who somebody who's probably about to get a little slap on the risk is probably Elon mus given the FAA is probably not going to be really happy about the rapid scheduled assem disassembly of the Starship 7 this is not good but Starship flight 7 did um disassemble it it it blew up all right everyone it blew up these are the pieces of it uh now remember this takes off from Bach chica Texas and this blew up and the debris was flying like a like a comet or a series of comets across the Turks and koos shoo start this is uh actually quite beautiful honestly it's quite the sight now In fairness I wouldn't argue that it's quite beautiful if you are at risk of this hitting your plane or landing on your house or something else so the top half was a failure and it didn't sound good when SpaceX in their live stream they're like yeah we've lost contact with the Starship We don't know where it is basically it's like okay wait a minute those are things you probably let's just say you'll probably aggro the FAA with those sort of lines but I will say the Chopstick Landing that gets me every time that is clutch look at that Chopstick Landing here we go coming down from 400 km an hour 180 slowing down now 150 km an hour 120 here we go 100 slow and slow and 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 look at that it slows down to like 2 kilometers an hour by the time the arms actually catch it it's basically hovering by the time the arms catch it it is so cool like it just it gives you a lot of in my opinion hope and and sort of humanity it's it's very very very exciting in my opinion uh so super excited for SpaceX and where this is going not super excited about what's potentially to come from the break up of this especially since the pilots who maybe saw the advisory notice that there could be debris in the area of the Caribbean uh were still there which I guess is on them but it does cause some potential risk factors given that you know planes were having to like this netjets plane was having to looks like uh you know make a left turn make a 360 and divert to Miami from where they wanted to go oopsy do oopsies uh but then again you know they they chose to fly that route through the potential debris field some people argue that the debris field was not actually listed as a notm notice air missions uh before the debris actually started which it would be bad if that was true then we're going to have a larger area of do not fly zones in the future so the last thing you want is some of this debris hitting a plane and killing a bunch of people it's just going to set back Innovation it's not good and we don't want to see stuff like that happening uh and again the quote we lost the ship the fa is not going to like that one they want to hear like hey it blew up we know exactly where it is and we know what we did wrong and we'll do better next time they did say they'll do better next time but uh it kind of seemed like they had no idea where it went for a while that might cause some problems Rick Scott and Ted Cruz have officially introduced the no tax on tips act I anticipate that this may be included in Trump's BBB big beautiful Bill and now what I did think was very interesting in the ACT is that they specifically exempt taxes on tips for federal income taxes which does mean in States like California you're likely still going to be subject to paying your California um extortion fee I mean uh state tax and uh it is possible that states could individually pass laws to also exempt their uh tips or or tips that people collecting those States from taxes but TBD that'll be up to individual states something that's also interesting is the way that they're setting this up is not actually a way where it's excluded from income but it's rather a deduction uh so I thought that was interesting too so you basically you declare it from like cash or credit card tips or whatever you declare it as income which allows you then to use it to qualify for a home or loans or otherwise and then you get to write it off and deduct it which is awesome so a lot of people don't declare their cash tips because they don't want to pay the taxes on them but then you can't qualify for loans so you kind of get screwed it's that double-edged sword right don't pay taxes you can't use it to qualify well now you can use it to qualify and not pay taxes should that bill pass I again I expect it to be part of Trump's big beautiful Bill nobody knows anyway uh I do have a small brief announcement March 15th the eyes of March we will be holding our Mastermind group event uh this is actually a really exciting time for us and uh we've got an amazing group of folks if you want to join it it's a group of seven figure folks so this is High Caliber entrepreneurs wealthy individuals if you want to apply to see if you can join this group go to meetkevin.com and about halfway down the web page you'll see a small section where you can uh schedule some time to talk with the team and apply to join so go check that out over at meetkevin.com the next one is on the odds of March the odds of March who the hell came up with that I have no idea it wasn't me all right anyway the polar vortex is moving in over the next week apparently with life-threatening cold 45 de in some areas which is crazy it's all coming from Canada so thanks Canadians downside is apparently we won't have enough alcohol to keep us warm not that alcohol keeps you warm anyway it just makes you feel cold as it or warm as it expands your blood vessels and you actually end up reducing your body temperature so it really does the opposite it's always interesting how things are just so ironic in life this makes me warm no it actually makes you colder anyway apparently people buy less alcohol during dry December or sorry dry de December hello Kevin how many have you had today uh zero uh during dry January that is the Federal Reserve Board of St Louis actually put out a piece on it I thought it was interesting that they were touching on it uh but I may as well show it take a look at this uh wholesale sales of alcohol regularly Peak uh every uh end of uh end of the year and into January a lot of people say this is because people have already stocked up on a lot of alcohol and this has to do with destocking in January other people say it's people having New Year's resolutions not a drink and uh uh and then you see this every single year the sort of seasonal dump uh in alcohol consumption for wine spirits and beer kind of interesting to see anyway uh Bitcoin apparently there's going to be a crypto ball that will take place Friday tomorrow uh in DC to celebrate Trump's inauguration supposed supposedly it's already sold out and uh tickets were going for $2,500 it kind of sounds like a cocktail reception with an open bar and like uh you know selfie taking opportunity I I I don't know it just it seemed not like I don't know something that I I don't know if anybody's supposed to be there anything special is supposed to happen but it is kind of interesting that they're doing this they selling tickets for 2500 bucks and it's sold out it kind of shows you how far Bitcoin has come we're also keep in mind seeing sort of resurgence just in the last few days some of the Trump trades uh look at uh for example iwm it's up from its low about 5 days ago look at Bitcoin you know 5 days ago we were trading for around 214 on the Russell 2000 small cap now at about 224 still well off those highs earlier uh this year and then when we look at uh roughly in about the summer and then again after the election we look at Bitcoin we're just over 100,000 right now and uh Donald Trump is expected to release an executive order making crypto a quote National priority and creating a crypto advisory Council now I'm not entirely sure if this is going to have any implications other than the government keeping a strategic Bitcoin Reserve or stockpile which would probably just be as Donald Trump has says said the seized Bitcoin or crypto that they already have so whatever they take from criminal activities uh not saying that the government is being criminal although that probably Al some Truth uh but whatever they take from a criminal activities uh in in pound uh they anticipate potentially just keeping uh as opposed to re selling uh or dumping on the market which a lot of people are enthused about that because there is some fear that oh man what happens if you had like a Biden Administration and the last couple you know days of his admin just start dumping a bunch of Bitcoin all of a sudden all at the same time well I've already addressed this and I've said it would create one hell of a buying opportunity because that dip just won't last anyway uh the uh the order uh Beyond creating a national stockpile would probably also motivate other states uh to introduce their own uh Statewide stockpile agendas uh that wouldn't surprise me and I think it's actually likely to happen so stay tuned uh all of these initiatives will do very very well as long as cryptocurrencies continue to hold their value they will fall apart very rapidly should there be some form of underlying Poopsy dupsies and valuations so hopefully that does not happen all right so with that said let's jump into Tik Tock ah yes Tik Tok Biden will not enforce the ban so in other words it's going to be up to Donald Trump who says he will stay the ban or not enforce the ban himself as long as a buyer is reasonably in the works for Tik Tok which means your probably not going to lose access to Tik Tok uh anytime over the next few days as a lot of people had originally feared a lot of folks were pretty nervous that you know come Sunday Tik Tok would basically be gone now you don't have to worry about that anymore fed gby little bit of a flip-flop here he's been kind of the guy that's been like hey look once the economy slows down the labor market it's really hard to stop stop it it's not like one of those things where the labor market gets worse worse worse worse and then soft Landing it stops so he's been of the mindset that how do you actually get it to stop there versus continue on going and he just came out and said huh meet Kevin has a coupon code for the trumponomics course at meetkevin.com for the inauguration it comes with a course member live streams and the trade alerts that are starting in less than two weeks for a blitz in February oh okay go to meetkevin.com to check that out you gend the Trump related uh trades that are going to start taking place uh within about a week of the inauguration so stay tuned I'm already prepping my strats it's going to be fun we'll do some challenges together it'll be great but anyway no fed gouby actually says not only is becoming more comfortable that the labor market is stabilizing but he's he's heavily looking at these December and November numbers and he feels pretty good about the economy he says uh that uh you know really this is how should I phrase this let let me rephrase this I've caught myself into a little bit of a hole here really once you get these strong November and job uh November and December job numbers you're in a place where you look and go you know what this these are really good numbers now the question is will that continue in the first quarter every single first quarter we tend to get layoffs from companies uh and that includes the layoffs that we saw this morning uh you've got BP this morning laying off 5% of its Workforce HSBC expecting to cost restructure uh you've got uh layoffs at JP Morgan quiet layoffs through mandatory return to work Microsoft pauses hiring and its Consulting unit all of this this week by by the way meta cutting 5% of its lowest performing workers Wayfair cutting 3% uh lineage the refrigerant company refrigerator warehouse provider rather uh they refrigerated Warehouse provider they're cutting uh jobs uh you know these these are just some of the more recent announcements from this week now we tend to get those every year the problem is just when you have those layoffs are they coming during a time where the stock market maybe isn't as robust or sorry the jobs Market isn't as robust as it was previously to absorb those people who are laid off see if you get laid off and you get five offers for another job did it really matter you get to go on to something new and exciting but if you get laid off and there's nothing else that's when consumption slows and poopy doopy happens so we'll see what ghoul be uh you know if goul be's initial fears will end up being true or uh or if he is indeed going to stay more comfortable throughout q1 now fed Waller does sort of reiterate that look the labor Market's solid but it's not booming so let's not you know get carried away here that everything is perfect in fact we might have as many as three to four Cuts in 2025 as long as the data cooperates fed Waller doesn't believe that fed tariffs will actually affect inflation as much as people fear he does say that if inflation moves lower more rate Cuts will come and inflation like this is very good and we may even see more Cuts in the first half of the year than currently anticipated this commentary by the way moved the odds of a rate cut uh from from September for a full 100% chance of a 25 BP cut all the way up to June 18th uh which is kind of interesting you've moved up a couple months uh actually about three months there you moved up a whole quarter which is fantastic now what's not fantastic though is what Wells Fargo said about Tesla stock and the fact that Microsoft is Raising prices and that apple is down well a lot Apple's down like 4% today this is actually quite a bit of a hit so usually you don't see apple move as much as 4% that's a really big hit at the same time Microsoft is trying to raise prices on its Microsoft Office Suite they're planning on raising prices 30% for the family office suite which will raise the price to $130 per year for a family of up to six or 43% price increase for individual plans because of their AI features which Apple probably wishes that they had this is because Apple apparently received some reports following were reporting quote lackluster iPhone sales in China uh now we did report on this about a week ago H maybe it was earlier this week that uh I think it was actually Monday that iPhone sales were expected to be down about 4.2 to 5% in the fourth quarter but apparently some new data is coming out suggesting that uh we ended up having a substantially lower number of iPhone sales in China potentially as much as 177% lower than expected in the Chinese market potentially because of that lackluster movement on AI or what's going on with Siri nothing uh and uh and then obviously competition in China okay so all of this comes after or I guess around the same time as Wells Fargo is a mega bear on Tesla apparently Wells Fargo analysts think that Tesla stock will collapse to $125 next year per Wells Fargo they cite weak fundamentals struggles to keep deliveries up despite deep discounts keep in mind we talked about cybertruck discounts this morning Chinese competition and the repeal of the $7,500 inflation reduction Act tax credit not just for that $7,500 for consumers but also the potentially the manufacturing tax credits hurting Tesla's pricing power ah nobody wants a little peee okay so with that said Wells Fargo also warns that the Optimus and cyber cab are still at too early of a stage to truly Drive value today now if you actually look at what people are commenting on these Wells Fargo articles you usually get things like this okay wait for it let's go with we need a commenter voice oh that's what we'll use this as the commenter voice guess we know who missed the boat do we really believe leave the analyst $125 that's absurd good old Wells Fargo and their fake account fraud put down the crackie pipe Fargo this is why it's really bad to say anything bad about somebody else's stock and it's probably why Hindenberg ended up shutting down people hate it when you dump on their stock let me reiterate that don't say anything anything bad about somebody's stock The Economist discusses growth in the United States and argues that Rising Bond yals may be a sign of growth in the US economy that productivity can potentially keep going uh and the extra Investments that we're getting from from AI Investments could end up adding substantially to our GDP even though many of those Investments may end up being money spent for Unnecessary invest ments or failed businesses they cite the era as having extra investments into technology that boosted GDP by as much as 1.5% that's a lot of money by the way when you put it in hundreds of millions of dollars and even though many of those Investments failed it still ended up propping up GDP before the big oopsy dupsies the US market today per The Economist reflects the expectation that these investments from companies will be Val valuable and on top of that yields are up because of public debt the fear of tariffs the fear of deportation potential and this strong investment economy so if some of these factors start falling away we could see yields come down substantially debt fear is probably not going anywhere anytime soon the deportation and tariff fear probably aren't that big of a deal we'll see and then of course we'll end up seeing what happens with AI Investments we know that Nvidia is having some real problems and glitchiness with their Blackwell chips leading some companies to prefer the h20s or not buy rack systems at all and just straight up prefer buying the chips themselves to implement however they would like regarding hedging and uh what we see in Market trades Mandy from the CBOE via CNBC on TV today mentioned that people have been buying puts on TLT up until now that is people have been using puts on TLT as a way to hedge their portfolio and now that has switched to call buying is this potentially and finally the top for yields well I'll let you know what my trades are in the trumponomics course make sure you're part of it use that coupon code we've got the inauguration code we're just starting it live now but that'll expire on inauguration day at the end of the day when it comes to hedging uh you've got a little demand for hedging on big Tech before earnings we've got uh some big earnings coming up on January 29th including Microsoft Tesla and meta you've also got 4 days in a row now of more than 200 advancers in the S&P 500 versus decliners this has only happened 12 times since 1997 so some bullishness coming back especially after that PPI and CPI set now City group is also expected to eliminate more jobs that's the one I was looking for earlier when I was like ah who's the other one a city group they're looking to reduce jobs by as much is 20,000 uh by the end of 2026 which would be a cut of about 8.7% of their Workforce ouch on top of that we have Hershey stock now hitting its lowest level since March of 2021 so with that said uh we are uh onto the D joke all right here we go uh okay so Dad joke wrote it down over here and Dad joke okay d man okay we did that one man some of those are bad uh all right here we go I recently found out from my insurance company if my blanket is stolen in the middle of the night I'm not covered okay now when it comes to the Daily Wealth ah yes the Daily Wealth so when it comes to the Daily Wealth something uh that uh I have found uh to be very very useful is every single day ask yourself what can you do to make your life slightly more efficient because it's not the time that those little efficiency or inefficiencies take it's the frustration factor and what it does to your attitude so for example I know without looking that right here there it is there's my wallet and every time I come back in I put it in the same spot and right next to my wallet I always put two Chargers and I like to check these every time I go out to make sure they're full okay that one's at 100% that one's at 99% that's that's pretty decent uh yeah 100% so this is this is useful right this is good pre-planning so that way when I got to leave the house in a hurry I'm not oh my gosh where's my wallet because that increases frustration exponentially having a dead phone increases frustration exponentially so now if I look at my phone and it's nearly dead I take two Chargers one to get it back to life and one one I run out of that charge or ideally my phone is fully charged and then I just take one that's the most ideal case quite frankly if it's like noon and your devices are out of battery you should be asking yourself what is wrong with me what can I do to go find another charger and just plug my stuff in every day your products everything that needs to be charged should not be running out of battery anytime something runs out of battery you should ask yourself how can I make this more efficient because every time I run out of battery that is a failure on my part it is a lack of planning and it is a failure and when you start cleaning up these little inefficiencies you'll actually realize your life gets a lot smoother and less stressful for example I use a little stream deck now to kind of change scenes so for and I'm still working this obviously and rebuilding the studio it's been very stressful but you know if I'm going to jump over to an article over here I've got a nice little Center camera now I'm working on getting the left camera camera I want to go back to me and I've removed the Border uh this is great because everybody complained about the Border I can do that there all one click of a button but if I want to pause the recording or go to some other scenes I have to page over because I only have eight buttons to play with on my regular stream deck that's not as ideal so what did I do today actually it was last night and it was overnight delivery I ordered one of those larger stream decky things uh I'm working on setting this up after I post this video uh and then that way I won't have to go to different pages I can see all of my scenes right here uh that also goes with uh obviously working in my um you know high tech all right there you have it thank you so much for watching goodbye good luck and please leave me a comment down below to let me know what you think about the AM and PM broadcast thanks folks we'll see you
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