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1월 CPI가 헤드라인 일치·코어 둔화로 나와 인플레 우려 완화, 금리 인하 여지 및 위험선호 랠리 언급. 퀀텀 컴퓨팅은 MS 프로그램 발표에 대해 영업성 자료라며 회의적. 은행 실적 양호하나 금리 하락 시 추가 상승 제한 가능. LA 산불 관련 정책 비판과 임대료 논란, 전기차 충전 이슈 언급. 투자 종목에 대한 직접적 매매 권유는 없음.
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oh man today's inflation report was absolutely incredible let's drink to that one and go through exactly what was in it what's going on with Israel and Gaza what's going on the new information regarding the California wildfires as a surprise it's it's just even more of an eye roller and what happened with Quantum Computing stocks all of a sudden quantum's back because of what Microsoft said is it fugazi is it fugazy should you be paying attention to it well let's cover that and more on today's meet Kevin report new news that makes to money nothing like cold coffee okay look hey I just want to give a quick heads up and I have a question for you as well I I'm sorry things are discombobulated the set's not done yet uh the 4K setup is quite frankly it's just been a nightmare and I apologize I I'm sleeping very little just trying to grind through get it done and it's been very very difficult uh but I I think I'm I'm the line is in sight so stay tuned however this morning's CPI report kind of got me excited and thinking like man you know nobody wants to report the Morning News more than me uh but I also like doing the Evening News because then we can kind of go through you know earnings and what happened in politics in the day and all that so then I'm like should we do both I don't know leave a comment down below should we have a me Kevin report that targets uh let's call it uh I don't know 5:00 5:00 p.m.
right uh California time which would be 8 Eastern and then maybe a morning version that comes out at let's say 6 a.m. you know right before the Market opens and so that way you kind of have both so an AM and a PM version I don't know if you're into AM and PM you know there's a store you could go there or if you want this AM and PM leave a comment all right anyway so I apologize okay things are a mess I'm not even like changed yet it's it's just bad but anyway the cbii report this morning was absolutely phenomenal and here's the thing everybody was freaking out again about inflation over the last week especially because we had this ISM report that came out people were reading the headline of the ism report on January 7th and they're like oh my gosh this is terrible inflation is coming back oh boy and then I'm like what I made a video on this y'all probably hopefully saw it and I talked to course members about this I'm like the report does not say that inflation is coming back the report when you actually read the details of the report were simply saying that slightly more businesses were reporting higher prices 73 point I'm sorry 23 just less than a quarter right 23.7 businesses were reporting higher prices that was compared to like 21% so if they called 100 businesses two more reported higher prices but that skewed the ism numbers and the headline and made everybody think that inflation was resurging but the reality was a below average total set of of businesses 73.4% of them were reporting stable prices so so really you the ism report when you actually read it it was not saying there was inflation again but the same has been true of these CPI inflation Reports most of the inflation the new inflation I'm not saying yes look I realize prices are higher right but the new inflation that's driving prices even higher most of that new information that's driving price is higher is based in limited categories uh specifically auto repairs auto insurance and medical expenses medical and healthcare insurance right the these are very very common we're still seeing the decline of housing inflation although it's still in there 3% La might prop that up a little bit though you know Nationwide we should still be on the downtrend because of the crazy rent increases that are going on in Los Angeles so we'll have to pay attention to those uh but anyway the report this morning was so good that we basically spawned a new risk on rally I mean Tesla was was up 8% paler 3% Nvidia 3.4% symbotic 6.5% the qes were up 2.26 the Spy was up 1.8 uh uh the Dow Jones was up six the 10e which peaked yesterday on like a good PPI report you had a good inflation report yesterday and the 10e P it was like this is stupid in fact when I made my video yesterday I'm like this is topsy turvy this is not sustainable like is everybody just waiting for CPI to get back to the party because this is good news you you have good jobs data good PPI data and like CPI data should be good and when you combine the two you'll have good pce well sure enough today CPI comes in a match on Headline but the core elements came in lower than expected uh the headline number beat because energy and gas was up you know at the largest level it made up 40% of the inflation figure largest level of last year colder winter Russia pipelines all we don't need to go into all that we've covered that already but anyway the year-over-year core number came in lower this is the first time we've seen a drop since July and and these underlying figures on average were pretty good when we went through with course members were like wow there actually a lot of negative reads in here which is fantastic to some extent you know if you have too much deflation that that's a bad thing then you turn into China and you know then you're then you want to buy TLT at that point because then all of a sudden bond yields are collapsing right because everybody's worried about deflation I actually am more worried about deflation in America than I am worried about inflation that's not saying I definitely think we're going to have a lot of deflation but I definitely don't think we're going to have a lot of new inflation the exception again of Los Angeles we'll talk about that in a moment this my opinion you know everybody can have a different opinion on this so that's why I've been so frustrated in the FED in my opinion making this giant Mistake by allowing yields to be as high as they are because in an environment where we're actually seeing inflation potentially undershoot rather than overshoot you're overtightening and you're just going to end up causing problems it's not good and and we'll see what happens q1 Q2 Q3 or sorry um January February March we'll see layoffs uh uh and and continued inflation progress inflation progress should be good the FED already planted the seed that the next 3 months of inflation should actually be lower on a year-over-year basis because remember at the beginning of 2024 we had the second wave of inflation now we're comparing to higher comps so it should be easier to come in lower and today's report was for December we didn't even get the good news yet of January February March uh anyway now core pce is estimated to be 2.8% on the 12 month 2.3% on the 6 and 2.2 on the 3 month these are great numbers this is a very very good position to be in uh and you know this is you know like and this makes sense to me but like it's kind of like why would you not want to be in stocks then right and then uh there's this person on X that I quoted uh he says the corrections in the stock Bond and currency Metals markets have likely ended and are all poised for big reversals here we likely see the fading of the wrong-headed narrative that drove drove the correction stronger economy picking uh uptick inflation and end of the FED ease and tariff concerns basically to unwind that let me try to explain what he's trying to say what he's trying to say is the economy is doing fine right now inflation is not up ticking tariffs will probably not be as bad as people fear and eventually the FED will go back to cutting all of that is good that's like your sort of Goldilocks position that you want to be in so all of that is fantastic fastic but then it sort of makes you wonder okay so is that going to lead to like the next Peak Euphoria and that depends on how many bears there actually are right so like how many bears are sitting on cash they like all right now let's buy stocks that inflation is going away now I've thought for years starting in 2022 when it came up with the sort of Nike Swoosh although you know I wasn't expecting the the euphoric end that we had here recently which has been phenomenal for people's portfolio but the reason for having come up with that thesis uh was because I thought it would take very long for people to get used to the idea that inflation is actually going away and it's not that big of a problem uh well it turns out like that's kind of what's slowly been happening is people are so complaining about inflation but then they're slowly getting used to okay maybe inflation's not that bad in this morning's Alpha report which you could get for free at the bottom of me kevin.com I said hey like companies like Tesla probably will do very well today and if you noticed Tesla stock opened at 2% and it closed at like 8% up so it did do very well remember you can get those Alpha reports for free every single morning uh okay so look nobody knows but let's just put it this way this removes more bad catalysts this is fantastic like it's it's very hard to be negative right now because the jobs report and these CPI reports together these are like the death nails if they come in bad they are coming in great for December so I hope it stays that way it's Santa Claus coming late and and uh this is good for the economy it's good for expanding businesses uh so with that said uh short seller Hindenberg is shutting down shop uh it sounds like he's coming off some kind of stress uh he talks about sort of like the intensity of his work having uh leading him to miss out on sort of the rest of the world and life and and that's why he's kind of shutting down honestly he probably gets so much hate over at Hindenberg maybe that's why he's shutting down Donald Trump is potentially also considering suspending the Tik Tok ban via an executive order for 6090 days uh just to allow time for maybe somebody to buy it is my guess you know maybe elon's like oh yeah look I'll buy it worst case scenario you know if you force me to buy it I'll buy it but you know I'm going to need more than three days it wouldn't surprise me at all uh anyway Market rally is now if you go back to 2022 it's now 26 months old out of an average 31 Monon era of market gains over the last century and this is where we then get into Quantum Computing which all of a sudden exploded again and people are like why why is quantum Computing exploding again okay well the president and CEO of Microsoft put out a document that basically suggests that uh a Quantum like you should start getting your business Quantum ready now I personally find it a little bit disingenuous and I don't know you know maybe you can tell me what you think about this but but when I was looking at this I'm like I I don't know man this this seems like and I hate to say it but it seems or feels like a sales pitch and I don't know how I feel about it okay let me show this to you okay look at this Quantum ready future proof your organization today for Quantum power tomorrow and basically it says join Microsoft's Quantum ready program to build a robust strategy for Quantum Computing here I'll zoom in a little bit okay so it's basically like a squeeze page where they want your information and then if you join the quantum ready program none of this is you're going to get a quantum computer it actually says you're going to join a new skill program that includes strategies and Frameworks and resources to prepare you for a Quantum future you'll get resources events expertise and insights from Microsoft now it's also very interesting if you look at their letter they're like as our industry looks towards the next 12 months the pace of quantum research and development is only going to accelerate yes the pace of research is going to accelerate big freaking deal that doesn't mean you're actually going to have a functional product anyway uh you know but business only only 12% of businesses say they're ready for Quantum and this is why Microsoft is excited to announce our new Quantum ready program becoming Quantum ready is both the business and Global imperative okay cool that's great but none of this actually says use quantum computers in fact I think you kind of expose what's really going on when you go here take your first steps today assess quantum's impact on your organization understand how resilient Quantum Computing integrated with AI and classical supercomputing will unlock new growth for your organization aha aha I personally think that is where the expose if if you will is okay well that that sounds dramatic I don't mean to be melodramatic here but what what I mean to say is I think I think basically what you've got going on here is a business that's saying Hey Hey Kevin can you switch back to the other camera you know I'm trying to figure that out honestly I don't know that I I can figure that out right now I figured it out I'm telling you okay they they're big problems right now I'm trying to fix them and like all the devices that I used to be able to use just just don't work anymore in this whole 4K live streaming idea it's a disaster anyway to me this is basically Microsoft going yeah um so um we uh we don't really have quantum computers but uh we want to start a relationship with all the people who might want to use quantum computers in the future and uh we'll just give you our current AI stuff because that'll help you prepare for Quantum this sounds like a scam I'm sorry I maybe maybe let me know if I'm losing my mind just like leave a comment and say something like Kevin I think you're right on about the quantum letter or something like that or tell me I'm wrong it's it's fine but I look at this announcement from Microsoft and I'm not trying to be a bear on Quantum stocks you know I'm not not shorting any Quantum stock I'm not buying any Quantum I don't really care I've already done I think it was a me Kevin report 7 if you haven't seen it yet watch the quantum segment just type into YouTube meet Kevin quantum computers and it's got like a 20 minute section breaking down the different Quantum Technologies and so I was excited to hear this Microsoft update today but then when I actually especially since Nvidia and meta bagged on it but now when I sit down and look at it I'm like man this a scam oh well the bank earnings were really good this morning they're honestly very very boring to talk about because they're just they're just good okay Investment Banking is up uh you know borrowing is up deposits are up the markets are up management fees are up like the banks are happy they're fat and happy right now and the reality is as bond yields come down off of a peak if the banks don't collapse at 4.8% 10e treasuries then it's really only uphill via lower yields for the banks on their balance sheets and balance sheet risk you know as yields come down Israel uh Hamas have signed a ceasefire deal 33 of the remaining 94 hostages will be released Sunday Dead or Alive disaster uh the rest over the next uh six weeks as sort of next phases of the deals progress all this happens right as Donald Trump warned that all hell would break loose or that you know uh Hamas would have all hell to pay if this deal wasn't done before he got in and now he's about to get in and oh wow the deal is getting done it's kind of interesting what else is kind of interesting is where Karen Bass the mayor of La was when the fire broke out so we know she was Ghana in Ghana well apparently she left on January 4th as the National Weather Service was citing warnings of the Windstorm coming to LA and what's worse though is that when the fire broke out her staff argued that she wasn't at the party she was working making calls but the LA Times disagrees and post pictures of her basically you know taking selfies and partying with people while the fire was breaking out so that doesn't look very good uh on top of that La fire had on standby 1,000 firefighters and an additional 40 fire trucks water carrying fire trucks you know some of them have tanks some of them don't if you've never done a ride along along with the fire department you should do it I did got to see carbon monoxide real fire uh I know real fire on a firefighter um hit and run vehicle versus pedestrian that that was really bad uh it's a an eye openening experience to see what First Responders go through so and I obviously I've done like hundreds thousands of rals with law enforcement but fire department that's an interesting one so anyway you learn a little bit about these this equipment and usually the big reason they're under Staffing is because payroll is expensive for any business payroll is expensive but when you literally have the National Weather Service freaking out like I don't think I've seen a freak out like this before here I'll show it you when you have the National Weather Service posting this is the actual National Weather Service of Los Angeles and they're saying heads up a lifethreatening lifethreatening destructive uh what do we have here widespread Windstorm is expected Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday morning across much of the Ventura LA County area area not typically windy will be impacted see graphic for areas of greatest concern stay in doors away from Windows and expect power Ares so to to me this seems pretty aggressive pretty obvious that there might be some problems coming and despite this warning what is the you know what what are the heads over at uh Los Angeles Fire and and uh uh you know political offices do yeah we're not going to deploy our extra recall provision we're not going to Institute a recall they call it it's not to be confused with like a recall of Karen bass or a recall of deavon Nome a recall is when they deploy basically Reserve firefighters on standby they had 40 engines available and a th000 firefighters available on standby they chose not to because of money so la fire department says well you know we had massive budget cuts so we just didn't have the money to do it and that's why we were busy and tied up somewhere else and so the firefighters just weren't deployed some people say it's because the mayor should have forced it but she wasn't local so how could she have known she couldn't lead because she was GH and Ghana others say well you know you couldn't have stopped anything because the fires were gusting you know 60 to 90 mil an hour so that was too high and look In fairness yesterday or or the day before even we had 40 to 50 m mph wind gusts and the Auto fire propped up in Ventura California and Oxnard California uh and that fire was rapidly contained because we have firefighters everywhere right now the National Guard is out all the cops are out all the firefighters are out yeah cuz all hell's B basically broken loose but that actually means we can respond quickly which is exactly the opposite of what happened on the Palisades fire we already talked about how the Palisades fire likely started because of reignition in the windy environment and the kindling of fire that wasn't completely put out and nobody's watching it Not only was nobody watching it but when somebody called in that this fire had ignited on the Hills above Palisades it would took over 25 minutes on the morning of the Palisades fire and not a single fir truck was on site after 25 minutes of the phone call coming in now they ended up showing up in the minutes thereafter but that's horrible could you imagine hey uh California first of all here's 55% of my money in taxes uh and there's a fire would you mind coming you know we're a little busy right now okay obviously I'm being factious here I I don't actually think that hardworking firefighters are just standing around I just think they're either on the schedule and busy or not on the schedule and in this case they just weren't put on the schedule because the city wanted to save money it's the beginning of the year you don't want to you know ruin the budget on day one so to speak speak right or month one but what's interesting is I wanted to understand if we actually had a rapid response that Palisades fire how much less damaging the fire could have been and so I don't know how to do exponential math but I know somebody who's really good at math and it's called chat GPT now that sounds lame like I I don't know why but it's kind of like we've kind of all gotten into this mindset oh like oh they're just gping it like I don't I don't like to write things with GPT I don't I don't like it when people use GPT to write their resumés or their emails like when you read an email that's written by GPT it it takes me like half a second to go GPT wrote that and it just comes across as lame right so I hate citing it and sometimes as a result I hate using it but I wasn't about to do this exponential math myself so what I did is and you should ask it yourself okay I said um assume there's a fire that in 3 days spread to 20,000 Acres most of the spread occurred on day one because of 60 to 90 mph gusts of wind and the most gusts you had on other days were 30 to 40 maybe 50 mph winds okay uh and then of course there were flare ups that were even higher you know at some points some people reported up to 200 M hour winds I I don't know if that's true but let's say if it maybe it was whatever okay scenario number one assume no firefighter started attacking the Palisades hillfire I'm calling it that hillfire cuz it's on a hill for 35 minutes the approximate actual time of firefighting right no fir truck is there after 25 minutes it take at least another 10 minutes to get out of your truck and and a hose going all right scenario assuming you know a truck showed up like within the next few minutes there after scenario number two assume the fire was attacked within 10 minutes of the call someone calls 911 it gets routed somebody's sitting in the Palisades with a fir truck oh crap they drive over and then it also takes them the 10 minutes to get the hose out or whatever right and and the phone call to get routed through keep in mind there was not a single fire truck deployed in the Palisades not a single one the 40 spare water trucks and the Thousand firefighters that were available were parked somewhere and the firefighters were at home those those extra thousand for the recall not a single one in the pal it's almost like it was planned okay no I don't want to go down the conspiracy rabbit hole but anyway assume the fire was attacked within 10 minutes 25 minutes earlier now calculate the burn difference so scenario number one after 3 days 20,000 Acres burned scenario number two 7,400 acres early firefighting would result in approximately 12,500 fewer burned Acres this highlights the significant impact of early intervention and controlling fire spread it's worth noting that in the operation manuals for lfd they say when there's a fire we will attack it hard and fast and early because the earlier you hit it the the last gr no freaking D I mean imagine it's a circle you know it's like the universe right if if you cut half of it out while it's still a little baby it it takes a lot longer to to grow uh but once it's huge and it's just growing and growing going it's really hard to gain control over top commanders decided not to assign emergency deployment roughly 1,000 available firefighters and dozens of water carrying engines I mean here I'll just show you some of screenshots it's just ludicrous uh here you go I'll zoom in a little bit more uh okay fire officials chose not to order the firefighters to remain on duty for a second shift last Tuesday as the winds were building which would have doubled the Personnel on hand and staff just five of the 40 engines that were available none of those in the Palisades by the way uh no extra engines had been placed in the Palisades when the fire broke out efforts were hampered some say efforts were HED hampered because of the budget of the afd others say it was low water pressure because of the fire hydrants maybe because San yz's Reservoir had no freaking water in the damn thing anyway they said they were busy on other calls blah blah blah okay look this is just devastating and sad and again it shows the mismanagement of all these people should be fired head should roll it's disgusting uh anyway all right so what else do we have uh well the next thing that we have is what's going on with the rent gouging everybody's complaining about rents going up a lot in Los Angeles uh and and some people are like oh my gosh landlords who are posting higher rent should be sued part of that may be because landlords are asking higher prices but most of it in my opinion is actually because people are just bidding Waring each other you know so like if you put up a rental for a house in Los Angeles right now you know close to I don't know wood or Palisades area close to that area Santa Monica for $88,000 you'd probably get somebody going I'll pay you $166,000 now somebody is freely offering that to you and they're like and then somebody else is like I'll pay 19 I'll pay 20 you know is that price gouging or is that just a competitive Marketplace competing for a limited number of resources and the free market is basically determining the value of these properties and some people say that well landlords are raising their prices well yeah sometimes landlords raise the prices so they stop getting calls of people thinking they're going to get it for eight cuz they're going to go with somebody you know giving them $188,000 and then they don't have to talk to all the people on the phone going hey man like sorry I've already got offers for this higher number some people are like no it's the greedy landlords they raised the price other people are like no it's all the other people who have no homes and they're desperately trying to get a home but because California underbuilt there aren't enough and so people are stepping on each other to try to get rentals right now it's a mess it's a mess that's that's all I know so Cal Edison is apparently trying to get implicated or people are trying to implicate them for potentially a transmission line causing the eaten fire uh you know Altadena is basically gone three utilities had opted into the uh Wildfire fund which would help protect these utilities and pay for for negligent claims uh should there be uh claims against them SoCal Edison is part of it along with pg& which went bankrupt for the last fire the campfire that we had uh of North and then the San Diego Gas and Electric Company they're part of it as well think of it kind of like an insurance company for utilities but but what's interesting is Edison might not actually be at fault of the Eden fire either so we'll see mostly because there are a lot of people pointing out to that also being another human-caused fire you know the the Palisades fire it looks like was caused by a New Year's Eve celebration that was still smoldering 4 days later anyway uh there are some rumors circulating that starl is being banned by Nome for firefighter use I'm unable to find anything credible on this but because people hate Nome so much this sort of stuff spreads like wildfire I shouldn't make those references this early anyway regarding fires uh there's also uh plenty of hit pieces out against electric vehicles right now about uh using electric vehicles and the risk of them when there are emergencies I just like to say that when I heard about the fires in La you know within like 30 minutes of the fire breaking out I uh the first thing I did was went to go plug in our cars like the cybertruck or Lauren's uh Lauren now uses the S or you know my dad's black X my black X that my dad drives now he rides her all the time anyway um it's a good idea to charge these things before your power goes out because the worst thing is like it's already hard enough to get supercharging as is like on a normal day you go out and try to get supercharging and usually the only stall that's available has a broken supercharger and everybody pulls into the same spot because there's no obvious indicator that it's broken should be like a red light that's out of service or something like that uh which kind of sucks because like that means everybody who's evacuating kind of has to consolidate around these EV charger areas and it kind of slows the evacuation and clogs everyone up this is all really before you start getting a bunch of third party Vehicles using the Tesla supercharging Network so I'm not really sure about that I personally just try to charge at home because it's it's a pain in the butt to rely on superchargers I hate it and I have unlimited supercharging on uh I think two of the cars I don't think the Cyber truck has that but I think the S and the uh the X do and and I don't I don't care because it's such a pain in the butt but anyway there's also a piece in the Wall Street Journal about armed people sneaking back to their homes in the Palisades sneaking around police lines one of the people they interviewed for this was Ross Gerber I'm not sure if he's just one of the people sneaking by or one of the Armed people they're talking about they didn't they didn't say who was the armed person uh okay uh then I'd like to just hit on stresses and uh Daily Wealth so um look I've been pretty overwhelmed the last few days and has really screwed up my routine and everything and so I apologize about this uh and so I found that while chaos theory is great if you conduct too much chaos in your life you can actually set yourself back a little bit see I usually like enough chaos that I could control and then I'm motivated to get a lot of stuff done really quickly but if you have if you create too much chaos you can actually overwhelm yourself and then you kind of shut down and then then that chaos really becomes a detriment so the way to solve that if you're ever in that situation is you basically just have to go on your calendar and just start canceling stuff just like you're mentally sick like I don't know something's wrong actually our little guy Max he's like vomiting it's a disaster right now I got to help him too like there's some family things you just can't get off your calendar you do have to help your family when when they have problems uh but um you got to get back on the right footing uh and so one way that I sometimes do this is I'll do what I call the midnight burn where you sleep really well one day you get like eight hours of sleep and you kind of limit coffee during that day on purpose and then at 9:00 p.m.
you start drinking like multiple coffees and monsters your goal is really to stay up as long as possible until the next morning and then you you know you sleep like 2 or 4 hours uh and then you try to go to sleep around 9: or 10 so like early enough so you could wake up early again the next morning because if you go to sleep at 9: and you sleep for 7 hours you wake up at 4:00 or maybe you go to sleep at 10: you wake up at 5: that's pretty good that's how you can sort of like reset yourself to get back onto a wake up early routine and sometimes it starts with what I like to call sort of like the Daily Wealth reset anyway uh as far as uh the dad joke of the day I'm I'm starting to run low on dad jokes so if you wouldn't mind leave me some comments down below for some dad jokes okay uh with that said let's conduct today's dad joke so I went to the grocery store and I asked the lady where the milk was she said buy the bread I said no I don't want bread I want mil
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