저자: Kevin · 외국인
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1월 PPI가 예상보다 크게 낮았지만 시장은 CPI 대기로 반응이 미지근했고, 국채 10년물 금리는 4.8%로 상승해 주식에 부담. 레이오프 확산(메타, 마이크로소프트, Wayfair 등)과 실업자 대비 구인 비율 하락을 경기 둔화 신호로 봄. 일론 머스크의 트위터 지분 공시 지연 소송에 대해 양측 시각을 소개. 피트 헤그세스 국방장관 인준 청문회 쟁점 정리. 캘리포니아 산불 대응 정책 비판.
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so Elon muscot sued and even though inflation numbers came in way better than expected we had a funky market today what is that going to tell us for tomorrow and what just happened regarding layoffs and who's this Pete guy that literally everybody keeps talking about when it comes to the Secretary of Defense let's go through all of this along with getting you a little bit of a fire update we're going to keep this one short and sweet since I'm a little bit behind today but a lot of progress being made in the studio which is really exciting because we're going to be coming to you with 4K live streams soon especially for the inauguration very excited anyway let's get started with today's meet Kevin report news that makes you wel okay so first thing first PPI this morning came in shockingly low and my expectation was that if we were going to get a low PPI read well then we would have seen a potential rally in the stock market so we didn't get that I don't know if it's because everybody's just waiting for CPI tomorrow which I'll give you some of the estimates and that way if you're watching this for you know if you're watching this after cpi's already out you can kind of compare to what the expectations are and then we can still talk about all of the other goodies including layoffs and what's going on with micro at various different companies uh by the way speaking of micro Jim Kramer says that you should sell super micro computers I think that's about the most bullish thing I've ever heard uh anyway so PPI this morning the expectation was that it was going to come in at 0.4 on the month over month we got 0.
2 which is phenomenal it came in way lower than expected that's on the headline number which includes energy gas oil these are December numbers right month-over-month core came in at Zero versus the3 expected uh producer prices less food energy and trade so a further category of core came in at 0.1 versus.
3 expected the annual figures both came in. 2 and. 3% lower than expected overall these numbers were just good good so why were markets not very enthusiastic today well probably because everybody's just waiting for the Consumer Price Index tomorrow now both pieces of the CPI and PPI come together to come up with the pce which is what the Federal Reserve uses to keep Hawking the problem is you're an environment where right now everybody doesn't even really care anymore about these one-off reports people are almost convinced whether right or wrong that the Federal Reserve is just going to stop with their rate reduction process and as a result sorry for these noises here there we go let's get that fixed as a result of this process what it'll end up happening is you'll end up getting a Federal Reserve that just goes too far but markets don't price in the recession or go too far apart What markets just do first is they say whatever If the Fed ain't going to cut rates anymore sell bonds especially the long longer end of the curve that's exactly what you're seeing so even though we got great PPI numbers this morning what ended up happening interest rates went up to 4.8% on the 10 year like this it is very Topsy Turvy and it is usually exactly this kind of behavior that ends up leading a market to start doing a little bit more poorly it's not great I'm not happy about hearing it because eventually those rates bite and when those rates bite you get layoffs now layoffs aren't necessarily bad I mean look meta for example is cutting 5% of the jobs at their company they're cutting their quote unquote the lowest performing workers which honestly if anybody on their resume says that they stopped working at meta around January of 2025 they're going to be attached to that label and it's kind of like you're branding people by firing them and saying that so I feel really bad for anybody who's getting laid off under the assumption that they're the lower performing worker that's going to be a hard one for people to shake uh at least for hirers who are paying attention but Zuck says that 2025 is going to be a quot intense year and they plan to rehire but they don't indicate when they plan to rehire now what's more important here is not that they plan to rehire but look them doing layoffs like I was leading into them doing layoffs is not what matters they cut a lot of Staff in 2022 and 2023 like 10% of their staff you know twice as much as they're cutting now but those years were different and I'm not saying this time is different I'm saying those years had layoffs when the broader Market still had two job openings for every available worker so you didn't really have to worry about a worker going out and not being able to find a job because there were so many available jobs now people are getting laid off and they're getting dumped into an environment where it's taking longer to get a job sometimes up to 6 months for a tech worker to get a job and you're getting more or cuts at other businesses at the same time when the unemployed to available job Gap is a 1:1 ratio right now which you start getting some of these layoffs here in January February March you're going to start having fewer jobs available than there are workers unemployed that's what starts slowing an economy down and why your business is doing it well Microsoft literally took the words out of my mouth because I've been warning about it for a very long time Microsoft is pausing hiring in its Consulting unit as well as laying off about 1% of our workers to help earnings it's the same thing that's going on with JP Morgan everybody's got to come back to work yeah it's a way to quiet fire people you've got uh lineage the um refrigerator uh the warehouse refrigerating company you know they they stock all the tattoo Chef oh uh they stock all the uh you know Frozen Goods or whatever for various different distributors uh they ipoed 6 months ago and and now they're already issuing a bunch of layoffs Wayfair is cutting 3% of its work force a lot of that in Germany so these are all just announcements we got today and we're only on day 14 like we haven't even hit inauguration yet now what's interesting is musk Bezos Zuckerberg they're all going to the inauguration by the way Michelle Obama is not that'll be next Monday we'll be covering that live obviously on the channel uh but the the layoffs are beginning so we're going to want to pay attention to that which I think this recipe is so weird the market reacting poorly to good inflation numbers at the same time as getting layoffs at the same time as the market thinking listening to the FED basically saying everything's fine there's nothing to worry about and they're like all right said everything's fine so they wash their hands of bonds driving yields up which actually creates more pressure on these companies to lay off more people I I don't know how I feel about it I don't feel very good about that oh well uh we'll see what happens uh Elon Musk on the other hand has also now gotten sued for failing to report the acquisition of more than the 5% Twitter stake all right now this this has two sides here supporters of Elon Musk say this is just law fair that is the easiest argument to make that anytime anybody you like who is on on the right side of the political Spectrum uh gets Accused by anything the immediate go-to is oh it's law fair okay uh supporters uh also argue that it doesn't really matter if Elon Musk acquired more than 5% because he overpaid for the stock anyway so what are you complaining about the company lost like half of its value after he bought it now maybe it'll be worth more in the future it it's more worth now maybe who knows but we're not there yet we're not in the future we're in a place where hey at that time he bought and the value went down so supporters are like look if anything it was good he overpaid and other people say this is just law fair right so that's sort of the supporter argument others say none of that matters and Elon just simple fact failed to report his trades on time all right so here's the background US District Judge Andrew Carter said shareholders in a proposed class action lawsuit could try to prove that musk intended to defraud them by waiting 11 days past the US SEC deadline to reveal that he bought a 5% stake in Twitter usually once you own 5% of a company you're supposed to post a notice that hey I now own 5% of a company it's a public filing with the SEC you have a deadline to do that Elon Musk missed that by waiting 11 days past the filing deadline shareholders then and these are these are from you know cases that have been going on there are a couple cases one in Delaware I think one's in Rhode Island but there are a couple cases that have been going on against musk really since earlier this year and and uh since 2022 when he first made his Acquisitions that's when a lot of these problems took place but anyway shareholders led by an Oklahoma firefighter pension fund said a musk saved more than $200 million by adding to his Twitter stake and quietly talking with its Executives about his plans before disclosing the 99.2% stake in April of 2022 now again in hindsight it's obvious you know for the shares he overpaid for it I mean he overpaid so badly at the time that he wanted to get out of the deal he wanted to cancel the deal saying Twitter was full of bots I was at the all-in summit when when he was complaining about this when he showed up on Zoom which was kind of lame but anyway he was supposed to show up in person but anyway uh he's like oh you're not buying a a you know a house you're buying a termite making a reference to real estate and and the house being infested with termites which you go down into the real estate analogies at least with a house you can get rid of the termites Elon still hasn't gotten rid of the Bots uh but anyway so look obviously at the time we don't know what would happen in the future but if you go back to 2022 while this was all happen happening when people saw that Elon wanted to start buying shares of X well now X then Twitter other people wanted to join and they wanted to buy shares as well and because Elon failed to disclose the stake until later yes that news of him wanting to buy it didn't break until later now obviously when he wanted to cancel the deal Twitter fell the entire stock market fell so maybe Elon wanted to cancel because the entire stock market was falling maybe he wanted to cancel because he thought he overpaid it do doesn't really matter whether the stock went up or down really has no bearing on the fact the fact is he made an oopsy doopsy on the timing now should the SEC just go all right A lot of people make an oopsy doopsy here's a $5,000 fine whatever maybe but now the SEC is suing Elon Musk is it possible they put a highlighter through his name because he's Elon Musk and he's associated with Trump and right now the SEC is still led by Gary Gensler who is like the opposite of you know Camp Trump yeah totally and that's where the lawfare argument comes in so I could see both sides but it's very important to know there are actually two sides here and it obviously takes a lot longer than you know a single tweet to explain this hence why I'm explaining it here because I think that people who watch these meet Kevin reports really value perspective and I really do my best to try to give both sides of the perspectives which now I'm going to give you both sides of perspectives of uh on on on Pete heg Seth who uh had his secretary of defense confirmation hearing this morning well at least round one of questioning uh so I'm just going to hit the drama point so I watched this for like hours this morning while I was building the studio by the way I'm still not done building the studio so forgive me like things are clunky I don't have my cameras on the right place yet the lighting isn't right yet it's it's been a lot I think I'm 50 to 80% of the way there I'm somewhere in that range I've still got you know probably another 6 hours of finalizing in here to do but anyway the biggest drama points that have come up so far I can't believe that this is one of them but uh apparently Pete has a tattoo of the Jerusalem cross uh which has been seen popularized during the Crusades on Shields or the code of arms for various different uh uh you know I mean quite frankly it was on a Cod of arms for the city of Jerusalem at one point it's on the flag of Georgia which is a country not the state uh it's a symbol of Christianity it's a symbol of Christ it's literally inscribed into the floor of the church where Jimmy Carter was put to rest like this is a pretty common symbol but some people see it as a symbol of like Christianity is the best or white supremacy or or whatever I don't see it as that I think people are trying to make something out of nothing here but I just want to mention it uh there are representations of this going back again to the Crusades but even before that some people say the sort of large cross in the middle and then the uh four crosses to the side symbolize Christ and uh his Five Wounds some say it symbolizes Christ and his four gospels some say it represents Christianity in the middle and then the spread to the four corners of the world that's when they thought the Earth was flat anyway he was a former Army National Guardsman uh he served at Guantanamo Bay Iraq Afghanistan multiple different duties I I don't really understand fully the whole like wait National Guard but then deployed I I'm just going to be frank there if somebody can give me an explanation on that in in the comments that'd be great so I'm just going to leave it at that okay after he served uh for multiple years and and on on various different Duty tours he became a fox contributor in 2024 and became a co-host with Kennedy in 2018 now Kennedy's I I like Kennedy she was a big fan of me when I ran for governor I've we've we've got a lunch together in man hatan I mean she's she's a wonderful person I think she's great and I saw her on Fox uh I think it was this morning actually and uh her house survived so far knock on wood uh the fire because she's got a house over here as well but anyway the largest criticism of Pete so far uh have really been based on his potential or alleged treatment of women now I don't know but it does seem like Pete based on what I saw and his testimony he kind of seems like he admits to cheating on his second wife and then having now a seven-year-old daughter with now his third wife that uh combined with comments that he's made on podcasts and books that women shouldn't serve in combat roles uh and that standards shouldn't be lowered for women a lot of people agree with that by the way a lot both well I mean some people agree with both of those some people agree with just the second one that standard shouldn't be lowered right uh yeah I think I think a woman that any woman that could meet the standards that sort of the average enrolled dude meets fine with me that but that that's my take my opinion doesn't so much matter though uh but um it does not help that in 2018 his very mother so 6 years ago he's 44 so when he was 38 when he was 38 his mother wrote in an email I have no respect for any man that belittles lies cheats sleeps around and uses women for his own power and ego you are that man and have been for years and as your mother it pains me and embarrasses me to say but it is the sad sad truth now in an interview with a New York Times his mother regrets that and says she she wrote that in Anger during the divorce and followed it up with an apologetic email blah blah my point is look he's got some blemishes but then again who does it everybody's got some oopsy dupsies and I'm not trying to dismiss cheating uh you know I'm not that is that is not my my job here to do at all uh don't cheat okay but in this case this is what they are trying to get against him now there are also allegations that he potentially uh had inappropriate personal uh conduct or uh you know ultimately there are allegations here of financial mismanagement as well when he was working for certain organizations such as the Veterans for freedom and Concerned Veterans for America groups uh he ended up stepping aside from those rules through some of these allegations uh and then later ended up getting a job at Fox he was a commenter at Fox or commentator as they like to say at Fox and he's been a commentator there since about 2013 and in 2018 he got a co-host role and eventually ended up moving on to Fox and Friends since then he's potentially earned as much as $6 million as a broadcaster speaker and author per filings all right so that's a little bit on Pete he's very likely to get approved the Senate arms Services committee has 14 Republicans 13 Dems so he can really only afford to lose one Republican and still get confirmed it's likely he is going to get confirmed though uh so far his his performance has actually been in my opinion pretty decent uh oh look at this I was just going to talk about the fires and look who's on TV with the policies protect you from a future earthquake protect you from a future fire protect you from preventing insurance companies prices of going up do you believe that's going to happen the answer is no number two if you choose to build a house and you want to rebuild how long you think it's going to take to get those permits probably 12 24 36 months number three if you choose to have kids why would you raise your kids in the school system of California no matter what part of California you were in why would you do that so you don't trust the system number four if you choose to start a small business in California do you think they've cleaned the homelessness they got $4 billion of taxpayer money and homelessness just went out in America we have 770,000 of homeless people in America 181 of it is in California this man has been the governor for 6 years the lieutenant governor prior to that for eight years his policies have destroyed a once great state this is why uh you saw that tweet all right so he donated to my campaign for governor by the way we have empty reservoirs we find out $650 million allocated to make the port of LA green we found out that the state you know that they have $2.6 billion dollar allocated for firefighting but they but $101 million uh was cut from that uh we know that the city of Los Angeles cut money we know that they're spending a100 billion on electric Vehicles we know that the city of Los Angeles is spending 800 Grand on electric street sweepers but they're cutting the fire department budget how do you fix stupid cuz it's all stupid and it's all preventable well I mean you you saw the the exchange with mayor bass where she went up there and she said well I'll never as a mayor I'll never leave the states I'll never go abroad she left five times it the leaders are not leading that state but think about it this way the Palisades you look at all the fires 880,000 Acres 24 death toll that we know about right now all the homes $250 billion of Damages today Reservoir Santa inz 117 million gallons of water it can have since February of last year it's been zero why because there was a hole in the cover that they had that that was one mile away from the fire that took place we can look at so many different angles high elev it's just bad policies and sit there thinking people are not going toing the next pH of people maybe Hollywood doesn't maybe the Boomers in California that have lived there for a while don't leave maybe some of the folks that are sitting there that have Family Ties restaurants businesses don't leave but that 35 to 45 year old that knows the next 20 years are going to be the best money-making gear of their careers they're looking at Nevada they're looking at Texas and they're looking at Florida and uh I can't blame them for looking at any one of those but I will tell you they don't get a penny unless they adopt the science of forestry so that the American taxpayer won't have to give one more Penny to California frankly in many ways they should they should have to fix this themselves they elected these people they they wanted these environmental radicals in office and this is what they got and sadly I bet they elect kamla next that's pathetic all right appreciate you being with us when we come back Joe Biden KLA Harris they continue to embarrass themselves on the way all right well for forgive me I'm not trying to come across as one-sided here uh I I've just uh I am I've all for a very long time been frustrated with the politics of California I've just had this mindset of like hopefully I can get my voice out and and change help be part of the change of California rather than than just leaving it uh but uh leaving it is obviously the Easy Choice I mean nothing there we haven't heard from um Patrick B David uh a lot of passion obviously there and he's not wrong about uh the Sant yanz Reservoir which is a a local run uh Los Angeles water power run uh facility that was empty Gavin Newsome points the finger by saying oh well it's not state run so okay well you're still in charge of the state and that Reservoir had a higher altitude than the Palisades which could have contributed to water pressure in the Palisades where 20% of fire hydrant stopped working Patrick B David also rightly complains about homelessness it's it's worth noting that we just had an auto fire uh in Tura County just about 8 minutes from me uh it burned about 55 Acres last night was uh started around 6:30 it was uh contained at about 12:30 we got a lot of firefighters out very very quick response time since SoCal right now we've got about another 24 hours of serious wins that we're going to have to deal with but after that we we should be on the chill mode if you will hopefully excuse me but uh the Auto fire was uh was probably started this is my speculation but it started in the river bottom out here which the river bottom here is almost always occupied by homeless they have encampments down there and it's not uncommon for their you know space their little kind of flame heaters or whatever to uh to catch things on fire especially when winds are very strong and one of them gets blown over and then all of a sudden the gas spills and boom there you go there's your there's your Wildfire so very very very very very common out here usually they don't go to 55 Acres this one did went up to a golf course go of course because we had water turned its landscape sprinklers on that was clutch uh I just also quickly want to mention regarding Pete uh worth saying that regarding Pete there is some speculation that potentially uh was this a favor to Fox News to keep Trump in his uh in their good graces uh some were saying that's you know just something to pay attention to but anyway uh a lot of news today about the same spot reignition for the Palisades fire we already covered that two days ago so if you want to know just type into YouTube meet Kevin cause of Palisades fire and you'll see the meet Kevin report from two days ago where we already went into this so I'm not going to rehash that I just want you to know like yes I'm seeing all the other mainstream media talk about it or whatever but I'm like bro this is old news okay we've covered this two days ago fine they're just now getting to it classic uh but uh I did get a little bit more detail on uh how the Getty survived which I've already gone through how the Getty survived uh brush clearing the sort of ignition of very dry brush that sort of looks like Rosemary where it lights up on fire and then it burns itself out because there's so little fuel keeping tree canopies High blah blah blah we covered a lot of that but specifically they also used Acacia shrubs and oak trees apparently both of these are known for absorbing a lot of water and they don't burn as easily or potentially at all because they're wet compared to obviously you know the inside of your attic which is very very dry another thing is because they have a positive pressure air conditioning system they actually blow air out of the building you know how usually when you have your air conditioning on inside of your home and you kind of feel like around the edge of a door you can kind of feel air getting sucked into the home because the blower motor is and just sucking from everywhere well that can actually suck Embers in it can suck Embers into your attic vents it could suck Embers through doors or cracks or whatever well because they pressurize their ventilation system it's actually more like pushes air out of the system and out of the building and that keeps smoke either compartmentalized or out but also Embers out in addition to that they also have their own 1 million gallon water tank in another 50,000g water tank very interesting now there's also talk about how Gavin Nome reduced squa requirements I think this is like nonsensical because like squa let's be real like every time the governor signs an executive order or a law saying yeah get approvals done within 30 days it still ends up taking a year anyway because local governments are like yeah we're not staffed for this sorry so I've gone I've literally gone through that so that is not coming from a a place of trying to bager in California it's I've been through the system all right Dad joke of the day what do you call a Mexican guy that gets his car stolen Carlos okay uh now onto the Daily Wealth today quick one one of my favorite hacks for actually getting things productively done is make sure you schedule something fun with your family or your friends for me back in the day that used to be like 6:00 ventiki my ties and then you're like trying to rush rush rush get everything done done done done done so you're ready to go get your my time now it's like bowling with my 9-year-old and so I love that big big big fan but there's a hack to that when you actually put something on the calendar that you have control of you know it's like you can go hey I'm going to be 15 minutes later or whatever and just you just leave the house 15 minutes later it's not it's not like it's the hardest deadline but because you have a deadline you have something to achieve or plan towards and then you actually pressure yourself to get your work done so cool little tricks anyway thanks so much for watching uh still working on the set so forgive me and we'll see you in the next one all right folks thank you
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