저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어 1분기 실적은 GAAP 순이익 1억 600만 달러로 6분기 연속 흑자, 매출 6억 3400만 달러(전년비 21%)로 양호했다. 미국 상업 매출은 40% 성장했으나 비미국 상업 매출 부진이 전체 성장을 끌어내렸다. 주가는 실적 발표 후 약 14% 급락해 21.69달러. 선행 PER 55로 과거보다 밸류에이션 부담이 완화됐다고 보고 기존 '보유'에서 '조건부 매수'로 상향했다. 다만 완전한 매수에는 주가 추가 하락 또는 비미국 사업 정상화가 필요하다고 봤다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone palent here reported quarterly earnings results that is sending the stock price down as much as 14% following the earnings release so I'll review those numbers I'll discuss a little bit about why the stock price is down despite the relatively strong uh earnings release and then I'll discuss my recommendation for paler stock I've uh recommended paler stock as a buy to start the year and then I told them investors to take profits and I'll update that recommendation here after reviewing the results so I'll go over those step by step and you'll get an understanding of why my recommendations have changed from a buy to hold and in uh up and down and I'll share with you the changes and the reasoning for those changes and then I'll finally update where I think the stock stands right now in terms of buy versus hold versus sell so let's get into the numbers firs Gap net income came in at 106 million representing a 177% profit margin that's now the sixth consecutive quarter of Gap profitability Gap stands for generally accepted accounting principles these are the standards for profitability metrics many companies and palente here included will adjust numbers right and there are going to be some numbers I'm going to highlight here that paler has adjusted so I tend to look at Gap numbers in higher regard instead of adjusted numbers if I want to see adjusted numbers I'll adjust the numbers myself I don't like when a company presents adjusted numbers to me that shows me what they want me to look at and how they want me to see their company it's not usually helpful in terms of how I evaluate a company it's more so to show their numbers in a more uh what's the word I'm looking for in a more uh presentable fashion in a fashion that's more favorable to the company so I tend to look over those adjusted numbers in most cases but you know you don't need to look at adjusted numbers with palente here because they are profitable using Gap numbers right they're Gap profitable on the bottom line six consecutive quarters and then fifth five consecutive quarters of Gap income from operation representing a 133% margin really good growth here in profitability from Palante here and I've been praising this management team in the last two to three years keeping costs under control while Revenue has grown and this is all while demand for its services have soared so they've done a good job with that Revenue increased by 21% year-over-year and 4% quarter over quarter to 634 million what I wanted to see from palente in the current quarter is increasing us Commercial Business and Commercial Business overall not just us the US Commercial Business did very strong Revenue grew 40% year-over-year commercial customer count grew 69% year-over-year but the reason why I look for growth in this segment for palente here is this is where the big opportunity lies with paler stock investors it's evident that paler has strong relationships with governments US government and those allied with the US government that's been clear what's been less evident is paler growth more broadly with business and the difficulty for paler in gaining broader adoption is the price it's truly the best-in-class service but it's so expensive that very few businesses can afford its services and you could see that it only has 262 customers in US Commercial Business that was up 69% year-over-year and 19% quarter over quarter so it's growing nicely and there's a long run way to grow if it can continue to offer great quality while while also lowering its cost to serve making it more accessible for more businesses and there are millions of businesses in the world so this is where the big opportunity lies there's only a limited amount of governments in the world that paler can get into so the business is where there is great opportunity remaining deal value grew by 74% meaning existing customers and new customers are signing deals that are larger and the deal value is growing that's good news however one bad sign for paler in the current quarter was non- us commercial business so they don't talk about that specifically here in this release what they do tell you is that commercial Revenue grew 27% year-over-year and you've got to do a couple of uh steps here and you'll realize that non-european um non us Commercial Business really struggled because you could see if commercial Revenue grew 40% us commercial Revenue grew 40% but overall commercial Revenue only grew 27% that means non us commercial Revenue was very negative year-over-year Bringing Down the overall commercial growth so peners struggled with non- us commercial revenue for several consecutive quarters now and that looks to be a persistent headwind to the business it's not able to gain Traction in business outside of the US business cash from operations of 130 million was a 20% margin and adjusted free cash flow of 149 million came in with a 23% margin the company's balance sheet has been one very very bright spot for palen here and you could see it here $3.9 billion in cash and short-term Investments that's roughly $4 billion that's been rising and with interest rates at over 5% paler can generate roughly 200 million in income by just investing this cash in super safe government bonds i' prefer it not do that I'd prefer it use this cash to grow the business to invest in the business maybe give more friendly terms to some of its customers that would like to buy paler service but they can't afford it maybe give them better credit terms and extend payment terms use this cash more creatively than just put it in US government bonds because I as an investor can do that myself I don't need paler to do that for me and then take its share for doing that that's not what I'm paying paler management team to do I I want them to use this Capital invest in the business okay so the stock price like I mentioned is down significantly following these earnings results falling to $21.69 I highlighted that I coming into this quarter I did not have paler stock rated as a buy I did not have it rated as a buy I had it rated as a hold in fact I made this video let's see I made this video on March 22nd when the stock price was $24.59 I told investors to take profits in paler stock to take profits in paler stock and to sell paler stock earlier in the year I had recommended paler stock as a buy and the price had exploded by so much I said it's a good time let's take profits the valuation was getting expensive and the company wasn't growing profits and cash flow as much as the stock price was increasing so I felt the stock price was getting ahead of the business and so I said it's a good time to take profits and if you listen to that recommendation you would have sold near the top and you would have avoided this big draw down here so now paler 55 which is a little bit more favorable valuation than the over 60 it was at when I recommended investors take profit and given the solid traction paler made with us Commercial Business I'm a little bit more favorable towards paler stock so I am upgrading paler stock here in this video previously I had it rated as a hold coming into the quarter I'm now upgrading it to a borderline buy so not completely a buy just yet the valuation is a little still a little too rich for me to recommend as a buy but it's almost there it's almost there another 10% lower or so would have me recommend this at at a buy or another you know step forward in terms of progress on us commercial business or maybe a normalization of its outside of us business the you know non- us business if that normalizes and stops declining that would make me more favorable for paler stock so it's it's getting there again the decrease in price along with the progress in performance had me upgrade from a hold to a borderline buy and I'm making this upgrade on May 7th
Comments 0