저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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결론: 연준의 금융 불균형 우려를 근거로 금과 은 같은 실물자산을 사서 불확실성에 대비하라는 주장. 연준 10월 FOMC 의사록 분석: 참석자들은 노동시장 강화와 견조한 경제활동을 확인했지만, 높은 자산가치평가와 낮은 변동성 속에 금융 불균형과 자산가격 급반전 가능성을 우려했다고 설명. 파버는 연준이 10년간 시장을 부양해 놓고 이제야 불균형을 걱정하는 것은 뒤늦은 대응이라고 비판. 신용 확대로 전례 없는 버블이 형성됐고, 연준은 이를 관리할 방법을 모른다고 평가. 금리 인상에도 금융여건이 거의 긴축되지 않았고, 시장은 주식 급락 시 연준이 인상을 멈추거나 QE4로 회귀할 것이라 믿는 것으로 봄. 현재 시장은 내년까지 추가 인상 위험을 반영 중이며, HSBC 차트상 2018년 인상 기대가 커지는 추세. 2008년 이후 약 50조 달러 부채 증가와 중앙은행의 기록적 화폐 발행을 지적하며, 미국 최대 중앙은행이 이제서야 금융 불균형을 고민하는 것은 문제라고 주장. 인플레이션 통계 비판: 미국 CPI가 식품·연료를 제외해 물가 상승이 과소평가되고 있으며, 9월 기준 식품·연료 제외 근원 물가가 1.3%로 낮게 나온다고 지적. 일부 위원은 상방 위험을 우려했으나 연준은 2% 목표 자체를 재검토할 가능성도 논의. 1994년 금리 인상기에 회사채 급락과 멕시코 페소 평가절하가 있었던 사례를 들어 긴축 전환의 위험을 경고. 옐런이 대차대조표 축소를 '페인트 마르는 것처럼 무사건'이라 한 발언을 반박하며, 주식 상승분 대부분이 연준 정책 발표일에 나왔다는 점을 근거로 격렬한 시장 반응에 대비하라고 조언. 결론적으로 불확실성이 커지고 중앙은행이 혼란을 드러내는 지금, 분리 보관된 실물 금을 포트폴리오에 담는 것이 더욱 합리적이라고 권고. 출연 관련 전망: 파버는 주식 버블 붕괴와 중앙은행 정책 반전 가능성을 경고하며 장기적으로 금 보유를 강조. 특정 단기 가격 목표는 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
by Golda's FET shows uncertainty and concern over financial imbalances funk minutes show uncertainty and concern about markets are affecting officials decision-making officials were cautious when evaluating market conditions and the damaging effects on the economy worried about potential buildup of financial imbalances and a sharp reversal in asset prices members seem oblivious to impact of inflation on households and savings physical gold and silver remained the only assets for real diversification and safety after nearly a decade of pumping up the US and global markets Janet Yellen and team are now starting to show some concern for financial market prices the funk is concerned that they are getting out of hand and are a danger to the US economy the minutes of the feds October meeting show that the committee is largely optimistic about the US economy and their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook meeting participants agreed that information received since the farm met in September indicated that the labor market had continued to strengthen and that economic activity had been rising at a solid rate despite hurricane-related disruptions but caution was the name of the game when it came to looking at overall market conditions in light of elevated asset valuations and low financial market volatility several participants expressed concerns about a potential build-up of financial imbalances they worried that a sharp reversal in asset prices could have damaging effects on the economy there isn't a huge amount you can say in response to the funk minutes there was no surprise they practically telegraphed the December rate hike and when it comes down to financial imbalances you really just want to tweet them with no she asterisk t Sherlock why the sudden concern really why the sudden concern about financial imbalances after all the fog has been pumping asset prices for the last decade they are overjoyed to see the S&P 500 regularly breaking through new highs the imbalance committee members refer to as likely in regard to the risk / reward profile in the price of equity markets this is somewhat ironic given almost the exact same thing happened with bond markets thanks to QE and the Fed's balance sheet expansion just consider that their own you'll curve lies at the heart of the current equities bull market the fear seems to be that in the last decade there has been such an expansion of credit that we are now faced with an unprecedented bubble the Fed has no idea how this can be managed across central banks they are concerned not only how the bubble will burst but what the contagion will be since the Fed started hiking rates up markets and financial conditions have not tightened at all one could speculate that this shows the market is convinced that the moment equities suffer a sell-off the Fed will either stop hiking altogether or worse revert to the status quo and announce QE 4 at the moment the market is pricing in the risk of further rate hikes into next year the chart below from HSBC shows the market has been pricing in more and more 2018 hiking risk the maroon line in the chart below shows the increase in hiking expectations in recent weeks with investors pricing in more than one and one-half hikes for the first time since April no matter market predictions of Fed rate rises no one can prepare for the aftermath of a 50 trillion dollars debt build-up since the financial crisis of 2008 nothing like this has been seen before in this year alone we have hit a new record when it comes to money printing by central banks of course now one knows what we are dealing with what is more concerning is that the world's most powerful central bank is only now wondering about financial imbalances in the market it's a fix as has been the case in many Western countries central banks have expressed frustration at the stubbornly low levels of inflation what's interesting about this is that many of them have spent a long time ensuring that the means by which inflation is calculated gets them closer to their target the basket of goods used to calculate the level of price inflation is continuously manipulated very often volatile food and fuel is not included in the u.s.
measure why does this matter because these are the two main items that affect household finances so far this year US inflation has averaged 1.6 percent so far this year when you exclude food and fuel and it came in at just one point three percent in September this artificial low level of inflation appears to have almost baffled fomka members with much disagreement amongst them for those who believe inflation is low this might reflect not only transitory factors but also the influence of developments that could prove more persistent according to the minutes however there were also a few members who expressed concern that it could begin to climb due to increasing upside risks to inflation as the labor market continues to tighten it was then suggested by a couple of members that the Fed tweaked its approach to inflation moving away from the current 2% target and tortha gradually rising paths in prices instead a nebulous approach we continue to see a divided fom with neither side getting our vote as they continue to debate inflation and how to manage it they are failing to do anything about it or even acknowledge what is really going on it is concerning enough that the current inflation measures do not reflect the impact on households savings and the depreciation of the US dollar it is even worse when the farm is discussing whether they should even try and target inflation at all bill Blaine of mint Partners published named bail from a reader expressing these very concerns with the fom on the inflation theme i got an absolutely classic email wide a former reader whom i don't actually know had picked up my comments on some financial wire thanks Jeff his thesis is the global authorities have been spinning us align when it comes to inflation pointing out in 1971 it would have taken a low-wage worker 2 hours and 10 minutes to afford a ticket to the then-new Disneyland Disney prices have experienced 8% yoy inflation since the park opened the same ticket will now require 7 hours and 20 minutes work and they are still playing that damn tune the lyrics would almost be profound if the tune wasn't so inane Jeff went on to point out the Indians shamefacedly admit their inflation is 9 - 13 % they are the only honest country on the planet not just a nervous fed the funks nervousness should be a cause for alarm but it should not be a feeling alien to market participants they have long been concerned with the impact of central bank's plan unwinding of balance sheets a shift in monetary tightening has been identified in global surveys as the most likely cause of the next recession these concerns are based in history in 1994 the Fed began boosting rates in a similar transition to today the tightening triggered one of the worst corporate bond slides in two decades the biggest loser was the suddenly devalued Mexican peso adding to this three of the four most powerful central bank chiefs are set to be replaced expectations are that their successors will not want to be seen hanging around delaying monetary tightening they will most likely continue to set aside inflation concerns in the drive to curb the financial excesses that they have encouraged for a decade this will likely come with some problems ones which the farm seems to be blind to Yellen famously described balance sheet tightening as uneventful as watching paint dry however when one considers that more than half the gains in the S&P 500 from 2008 until the end of 2015 when the farm began raising rates came on days the Fed announced policy decisions that we should prepare for some harsh market reactions a pantomime farce in the United Kingdom we have a very odd tradition at Christmas of going to the pantomime the pantomime to those who haven't been always seems to be a peculiar way to be entertained it is not a pantomime is an of mine as the word means in other countries but instead it is a form of slapstick musical entertainment one of the hilarious parts to every pantomime is when the hero is trying to catch the body of the show the body keeps appearing behind the hero but our protagonist always seems to not notice or just miss him meanwhile the audience is calls for he's behind you grow louder and more raucous as the show goes on the joke is of course that it seems to be near impossible that someone could miss a baddie looming so close and so obviously in the background the same can be said of the farm and their apparent ignorance of the threat of financial imbalances for the last decade for years we have watched incredulously as the farm Kallang with other central bank committees pumped away at markets it is as if we have come nearly to the end of the pantomime where the hero is finally getting wise to the body's tricks and is close to catching him the only difference between the central bank pantomime and a real one is that there is unlikely to be a happy ending as it will be the baddie who gets the better of the so-called hero in this pantomime we do not know how it is supposed to end how can we again we conclude that this comes down to uncertainty whilst we have long advocated for investors to line their portfolios with assets that offer true diversification and safety it now seems more pertinent than ever central bank's rarely admit that they are confused about the state of markets this latest statement was the beginning of them starting to scratch their heads and admit they don't have all the answers as this uncertainty and confusion seeps through and grows investors should be prepared for panic in both policymaking and financial decisions it is times like this when holding allocated segregated gold in your portfolio makes even more sense with a central bank wondering how to manage things you can rest assured that your wealth is out of the reach of central bankers and their reactionary monetary policies chose the market has been pressing in more and more 2018 hiking risk the maroon line in the chart below shows the increase in hiking expectations in recent weeks with investors pricing in more than 1 and 1/2 hikes for the first time since April no matter market predictions of federate rises no one can prepare for the aftermath of a 50 trillion dollars debt buildup since the financial crisis of 2008 nothing like this has been seen before in this year alone we have hit a new record when it comes to money printing by central banks of course now one knows what we are dealing with what is more concerning is that the world's most powerful central bank is only now wondering about financial imbalances in the market it's a fix as has been the case by Golda's FET shows uncertainty and concern over financial imbalances funk minutes show uncertainty and concern about markets are affecting officials decision-making officials were cautious when evaluating market conditions and the damaging effects on the economy worried about potential buildup of financial imbalances and a sharp reversal in asset prices members seem oblivious to impact of inflation on households and savings physical gold and silver remained the only assets for real diversification and safety after nearly a decade of pumping up the US and global markets Janet Yellen and team are now starting to show some concern for the financial market prices the funk is concerned that they are getting out of hand and are excited that their own you'll curve lies at the heart of the current equities bull market the fear seems to be that in the last decade there has been such an expansion of credit that we are now faced with an unprecedented bubble the Fed has no idea how this can be managed across central bank's they are concerned not only how the bubble will burst but what the contagion will be since the Fed started hiking rates up markets and financial conditions have not tightened at all one could speculate that this shows the market is convinced that the moment equities suffer a sell-off the Fed will either stop hiking altogether or worse revert to the status quo in announced QE 4 at the moment the market is pricing in the risk of further rate hikes into next year the chart below from HSBC Janet's there was no surprise they practically telegraphed the December rate hike and when it comes down to financial imbalances you really just want to tweet them with no she asterisk t Sherlock why the sudden concern really why the sudden concern about financial imbalances after all the fog has been pumping asset prices for the last decade they are overjoyed to see the S&P 500 regularly breaking through new highs the imbalance committee members refer to as likely in regard to the risk / reward profile in the price of equity markets this is somewhat ironic given almost the exact same thing happened with bond markets thanks to QE and the Fed's balance sheet expansion just--can danger to the US economy the minutes of the feds October meeting show that the committee is largely optimistic about the US economy and their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook meeting participants agreed that information received since the fomka met in September indicated that the labor market had continued to strengthen and that economic activity had been rising at a solid rate despite hurricane-related disruptions but caution was the name of the game when it came to looking at overall market conditions in light of elevated asset valuations and low financial market volatility several participants expressed concerns about a potential build-up of financial imbalances they worried that a sharp reversal in asset prices could have damaging effects on the economy there isn't a huge amount you can say in response to the funk
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