저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라에 4가지 적신호(통화 리스크, 중국 수요 둔화/가격 결정력 부족, 미국 자동차 경기침체 우려, 수요 백로그 감소)와 2가지 청신호(원자재 가격 하락, 베를린·오스틴 가동에 따른 마진 개선)를 제시. 2025년 생산량 추정을 490만대로 하향하고 주당 적정가 568달러(2025년 PER 55배)를 제시하며 2025년까지 연 19% 수익률을 예상함. 3분기 실적에 환차손이 반영될 수 있다고 경고.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here we've got to talk at Tesla there are four major red flags that we need to discuss before the next earnings well reports in Q3 and four and two green flags that could help us offset these red flags the very first thing that we need to discuss is one that isn't the most sexy but it has to do with currency risk I'm going to keep this as simple as possible the stronger the United States dollar is the more sales we want to see of Tesla's in America because if we sell cars at a higher degree in China or Europe or Great Britain while their currencies are falling relative to the dollar then we are going to take a larger dollar impairment on our next earnings report which means a lower earnings per share which means potentially less momentum going forward this this has happened before so this is no unique surprise here take a look at just the last quarter we had a foreign currency adjustment of negative 421 million dollars to net income that is in contrast to a 63 million dollar gain in the prior year we know that foreign currency fluctuations are going to be a big deal in this next earnings report not only because of what happened in the last quarter but take a look at the charts they've only worsened this is the Euro relative to the US dollar down 17 year-over-year this is the Chinese Yuan down 10 with a lot of that drop actually happening in the third quarter which is the next quarter we're going to see a report from Tesson and the Japanese Yen dropping 23 also with a lot of that happening in the third quarter that's that sort of right half of this chart again going through those charts you really see the pain in the right half when the dollar has been strengthening this is an issue because Tesla also keeps a good chunk of their reserves in foreign currencies where they are conducting transactions in fact take a look at this directly from Tesla's statements balance is held in foreign currencies had a US dollar equivalent of 5 billion dollars that means out of 18 billion dollars of cash that Tesla has more than 25 percent of it is held in foreign currencies which could have been impaired in excess of 10 over the last quarter alone that's devastating because that could be a 500 million to one billion dollar impairment in currency Holdings alone if Tesla hasn't moved these to Dollars this is a real risk to the Q3 earnings report and even though I really expect excellent deliveries in Q3 it could all get squashed under currency risk adjustments where we end up getting a very low earnings per share and it looks like Tesla isn't as profitable as it really ought to be solely because of currency adjustments this will be very frustrating because I actually think that deliveries in China will slow going into Q4 which means maybe the currency issues won't be that bad but then we'll trade those for a Chinese slowdown and the Chinese slowdown is actually the second big issue that we have the Chinese slowdown is very very real in fact when you look at companies and in an earnings call CEOs or Executives talk to you in an earnings call about how they're trying to be competitive with their pricing that means they lack what I call PP also known as pricing power we regularly talk about PP in my Friday it's the 30th and we'd love to have you there just like we'd love to have you as an investor and house hack which has a deadline this Friday as well for accredited investors who want to get their maximum amount of warrants possible up to 65 percent in free warrants which are kind of like call options but a little bit different okay read the PPM and you'll learn all about it at househack.com but this is my startup and I'd love to have you as a part of it folks when Executives tell you they lack pricing power which could be implied by saying we're trying to be more competitive it's a sign of demand going down in that region and take a look what was literally in Tesla's last report right here for example these cost reductions in manufacturing have allowed us to competitively price our vehicles in China this is straight from the Tesla earnings report this is a sign that not only are we going to face substantial currency risks which hopefully hopefully hopefully hopefully we move a lot of that Chinese demand that might be falling off to the United States that could offset a lot of this pain right if we get a lot more United States delivery as opposed to European Delivery or Chinese delivery fine maybe the currency exchange issue won't be that big of an issue that would be the dream and hopefully we've converted a lot of these foreign currencies into Dollars although Tesla's not exactly known for currency hedging that's because they pretty much basically say they barely currency hedge you can read the reports and you can see that but anyway the point is we know China's economy is getting crushed we know Chinese demand is going down it's going down so much so that in order to try to induce demand in China they actually gave away this insurance subsidy in China uh to anybody who bought a vehicle between September 16th and 30th they basically gave people a thousand one hundred and forty dollars if they chose Tesla insurance I mean that's like a year of free insurance if you buy a Tesla that's basically a price cut even though it doesn't really cost anything for Tesla to provide that it's basically a price cut right you are providing an incentive for somebody to pay a little bit more it's like when you get an EV tax credit which I think will be a big boost to electric vehicles in the next few years way too soon for any of these uh you know EV tax credits to to really be considered right now but in the long term these will be phenomenal especially for Tesla they'll really help margin because basically what you're doing is you're reducing the cost that somebody has when they buy an EV while allowing the manufacturer to charge more right that means bigger margins that's the inefficiency of the tax system you would expect that uh buyers and the manufacturer would kind of share in that benefit right that's generally economically how it works the buyer gets a little bit of a cheaper price and the manufacturer gets higher margins but anyway we want to see more Teslas sold in the United States we need United States demand to stay up now I'm a little bit concerned about that and U.S demand for a couple of reasons the first reason that I'm a little bit concerned is that United States demand has never been like 80 or 70 plus percent of the demand that we're seeing for Teslas so it's unlikely that we're going to see anything different from this particular chart here this chart shows you Vehicles delivered in the United States China and other areas like Europe or New Zealand or whatever else right and let's just ignore the three months ending June 30th here because that's when Shanghai was shut down for a moment let's look at 2021 in the summer 20 about 24 of vehicles went to China 32 percent went elsewhere like Europe and 43 went to America okay well this is bad because the that means more than half of all vehicles are actually sold outside of America which means we take a foreign currency hit and it's going to so look okay the good news is in the last six months we've trended more towards America with now more than half of vehicles delivered in America and while Shanghai was shut down we had up to 57 of vehicles delivered in America but still with Shanghai mostly shut down we still only had 57 of vehicles delivered in America so I'm expecting a big FX hit for an exchange hit and it's going to suck but it's not just historically what Tesla has been delivered it's very simply if you just go to tesla.com okay I hate you sir but if you just go to tesla.com and even though in the last Earnings Report Elon Musk tells us oh we have no problem with the man there's plenty of demand we've got you know that the issue is batteries and materials those are the limiting factors not demand that's fine but hey if I want to buy a model 3 right now yes I'm not going to be able to get the long range because they're not accepting pre-orders for that right now because the wait list is too long for that particular kind of battery set but if I want to get a battery presumably a cheap one from China and I just want to get a basic model 3 right now my delivery window is as little as one week from now all the way into December okay so but this as little as a week from now is kind of scary because it does mean that those windows have substantially compressed and we know that the order backlogs for Tesla are starting to fall we know this because Troy tests like on Twitter who's absolutely brilliant about uh finding this and conducting this sort of research uh absolutely give him a follow but but take a look at this this is your Tesla backlog in units it's plummeting well which makes sense because we're going into a global recession like we understand that at least we still have the buffer I'm totally okay with this backlog going to zero and then people who have money being able to get a Tesla right away as long as there are enough buyers to absorb everything that Tesla produces I'm happy I just need more of those buyers to be in the United States because the currency disaster is going to suck I can't understate how bad it's going to be let me give you a little bit of research on this okay this is not what I wanted to click this is a study that shows you the relationship between Tesla stock and what happens with foreign currencies it sounds really complicated let me just make it very simple for you when the Chinese Yuan goes down the stock goes down when the Chinese Yuan strengthens them and Mindy when it strengthens stock goes up well unfortunately the Chinese Yuan right now ain't doing too hot it's going down so that's not a good heads up for Tesla stock in the near term so we've got a foreign exchange risk we've got this demand disaster in China we for some reason have Tesla holding 5 billion dollars in foreign currencies which have all devalued Now by at least probably 10 percent uh certainly at least five percent just in in the last uh quarter here uh the dollar has strengthened so much and we've got this concern that hey well maybe we could just ship vehicles to America but if you ship vehicles To America that cost you more money in shipping and quite frankly even while Shanghai was shut down we were only able to deliver 57 of vehicles To America that is not very exciting in terms of thinking oh yay strong dollar this will really help us now there is an offsetting benefit to a strong dollar a strong dollar does make it cheaper to buy materials that could be good assuming hopefully Tesla keeps most of their earnings in dollars and not in the Chinese Yuan like which you know they've said we have uh you know five billion dollars of Chinese Yuan and and pound sterling and don't even get me started about the pound sterling okay the pound sterling the pound the Great British peso I mean the Great British pound is is basically a parody with the dollar it's not like a bucko seven right now it's it's insane uh it fell as low as 103.
and this is really because the the government wants to okay we don't have to go into this I made a whole video on this but basically actually I mean the government's actually doing some really interesting things in the United Kingdom they're like let's cut taxes and let's encourage people to keep more of their own money so they'll get off their butts and they'll actually go work and then we'll have more people working and if we have more people working we can bring constant inflation down and then we won't have this massive labor shortage geez imagine that lowering taxes to encourage people to work I I mean it actually sounds great to me but you know this is not supposed to be a political commentary video this is a video about Tesla so the next thing that we have to remember about Tesla is this this Commodities Factor right as as I was getting started to you know talk about here is that Tesla will or should benefit off having dollars to purchase commodities for example here's just a comment from an article in 2016 where the author wrote for example a stronger Japanese Yen caused Tesla to suffer higher battery component costs for its auto manufacturing line I actually think this was written in 2017 but but they were talking about 2016.
anyway and they say here why because its battery cells made in Japan by Panasonic had prices dominated and denominated in the Japanese Yen so what's interesting about that is if battery components are actually denominated in Japanese Yen still today a lot of the batteries that we then Source from from Panasonic or whatever well as long as we have lots of dollars and hopefully not Bitcoin then we could take those dollars and actually buy Commodities at a cheaper level and this is actually a grain flag for Tesla I don't want to come across as just a bear here because I think I think of myself as a very realistic person I think that's why hopefully you subscribe to this channel is because if there's news and it's bad I give it to you if there's do's and it's good I give it to you uh but uh this this is really interesting because Commodities are plummeting and this is a very very good thing I mean this is the Bloomberg commodities index and you can see that Commodities are certainly more expensive than they were last year but they've certainly plummeted this is a one-year chart by the way sorry I cut off the very bottom there but it's a one-year chart so the right side is where we are the left side is one year ago and and you can sort of see the peak there around March uh the war you know probably Feb to may-ish in the peak there you can see Commodities have come down uh to a level that's that's essentially above slightly above levels that we saw last year but it's nice to see Commodities come down because that help increase margins for Tesla so you've got lower commodity costs which help Tesla but then you have this massive foreign exchange disaster that's going to come to Tesla which is going to hurt Tesla not only that but you have Bank of America researchers indicating that the estimated raw material cost per vehicle to produce a car right now is actually plummeting which is very good because with the exception of in China Tesla has substantially increased the prices of their vehicles and if now the cost of those Vehicles is plummeting well then that means more margin and we like margin we don't like when margin calls but we do like margin when it comes to looking at earnings reports so this is a good thing so we've got again a negative factor of currency risk big negative I mean I'm talking 500 million to a billion dollar negative here okay Chinese demand will get absorbed elsewhere but the problem is are those shipping costs going to kill margins right that's a potential issue a good thing and a green flag so we've got two red flags a good green flag is that costs and commodities are plummeting this is great but another red flag is that actually we are potentially entering what is being considered an automotive recession uh and and that is because take a look at this this is the U.S seasonally adjusted annual rate of uh car sales and what I want you to do is basically just look at the blue lines and you see this blue line where my laser pointer is over here and you see how kind of low this area is if you kind of trace it back you go all the way back to 2011 levels and the trajectory is down and if the trajectory is down then we could soon be in 2008 2009 Automotive recession levels this is according to Bank of America's Global Research by the way on the automotive industry in addition to that U.S consumer confidence in U.S Auto Sales is I mean honestly this should go without saying if if you really needed a chart to know that consumer confidence has plummeted to to already basically the levels of the Great Recession uh in in Auto Sales well fine here you have it visually but it seems like it should be relatively obvious right so uh uh you know okay all right so so we've got we've got some some good and we've got some bad again currency risk bad Chinese demand bad so much so by the way on Chinese demand I forgot to put this up I thought this was very interesting take a look at this chart again from uh Troy on Twitter here take a look at this one giga Shanghai appears to have switched model y production to exports on September 21st buyers from Australia and Japan started uh reporting receiving vehicle identification numbers on September 21st normally they would uh start occurring on September 26th so in other words we're getting more exports from Shanghai sooner almost almost an entire well an entire five days sooner five days out of a month uh you know you know that's that's uh somewhere around uh what 18 17 18 or something like that right 5 divided by 30 equals 17 16.6 so 16.6 earlier a move to exports that's because Chinese demand is getting crushed there's more evidence of this it's a problem and that costs more money but then you're also shipping to these countries like Japan where now you're gonna sell and you're going to receive the Japanese currency but I don't think we want the Japanese currency that sucker lost 23 percent over the last year it's Parable does it's very bad okay but again not here to be funny currency risk fat trying to demand bad Auto recession bad costs and commodities plummeting great but in addition to the cost of Commodities plummeting we also expect according to Goldman Sachs research that vehicle margins should substantially be increasing because of the ramping of Berlin and Austin you see it on screen right here the ramping of Berlin and Austin will help reduce the cost of goods sold cost of goods sold is expected to fall to about 36 thousand dollars per vehicle in 2021 from an average of over 70 000 in 2017.
obviously that's when they were producing more of the S's and X's but the point is uh this is incredible I mean a thirty six thousand dollar cost per vehicle uh it it you know and that's an average since since you've got more expensive vehicles and longer range vehicles or whatever this is phenomenal but the more Berlin and Austin get online the less of Tesla is actually being produced at Fremont which as they say here is a converted Ice Factory that means it used to com basically produce internal combustion engine Vehicles which is much less efficient of a factory than something like Berlin or Austin we should continue to see margins go up so so there's more good news here right so we've got this Balancing Act here of good news and bad news in addition to that Martin or the head of investor relations was at an event and Goldman Sachs reported and that he suggested that the long-term demand environment is still strong for Tesla and they still had a record month of production in China do keep in mind though they're talking about production in China not about deliveries in China and while China is slowing as they mentioned here they see Tesla China as an export Hub that's great you can manufacture Vehicles cheaply in China crank them out just as long as people are buying them elsewhere and the best case scenario is that the people buying these chinese-made vehicles are Americans I want Americans who are spending money on cars right now which is the stupidest thing you could do if you're buying a car right now I feel like you're an idiot and I'm sorry if you're buying a car right now it is just stupid you should take your head and like hit it against the table and hope that like the little uh you know uh like as they said in uh in in Germany in Germany they would always say uh does he have them yeah you don't have all your glassware properly organized in your cupboard you know maybe that'll help you reorganize your brain a little bit because I don't understand why you would be wasting money on butter in the depths of a recession when you should be saving money to buy real estate and stocks but hey maybe you're not a member of my courses on the psychology of money and you're wasting your money on a stupid car meanwhile here I am heavily invested in Tesla telling you not to buy a Tesla maybe I'm the one who needs my psychology and my tests and checked but I'm just being honest uh anyway so uh okay this is actually good news though right uh so like Goldman actually bullish they've got a price target of like 335 on Tesla that's great I mean we're at 285 right now please I'll take I'll take that because that brings us back to a thousand bucks you know I've stolen kind of like pre-split numbers here what look folks if we end up getting any kind of reduction in production or the copy and pasting of gigafactories we're gonna have to lower our 2025 projections and I hate to say it I hate to say it but that's exactly what I'm going to do right now is I'm going to lower my 2025 projections all right 20 20 protections end of 2025 unchanged is my expectation of an average selling price per vehicle of around 52 000.
however folks dun dun I have reduced from 5.8 million Vehicles expected in 2025 I've reduced that to 4.9 oh that's 900 000 or sorry 900 000 vehicles of a reduction in production that I am now estimating because of what I believe will be a very dirty Global recession uh that the United States will actually I think fare quite well through but other countries are just going to get reamed through it's going to be a problem by the way I did an interview today and I'm like you know what Tesla should do just got the money okay Tesla should build factories in the like hardest places or the hardest hit places in the world right now economically I believe Poland is actually an excellent choice it doesn't have the disastrous regulate a regulatory environment of Germany where there was just like a whole new York Times article about how like the German police go around and round up people for leaving social media hate so if you leave a hate comment and you're in Germany you could get your house raided by the German Police Department that was a crazy article it's true story too uh somebody called um a politician a penis and they had their house raided up um I kid you not that's what the story said I mean maybe we don't believe the New York Times but that's what the story said uh okay I really have no idea where I was going with this uh but uh now I'm gonna have to pause the video and try to understand what the hell I was going to say because this is actually oh Poland they should peel the factory in Poland because the ukrainians who were replaced in Ukraine and are not trying to be like an idealist here I'm trying to be a realist like you have less regulation in Poland go build in Poland you're still part of the EU you've got the buffer land of Ukraine that sounds terrible but it's true uh and you just had a crapload of people flee Ukraine looking for work in Poland you have a captive Workforce in a very recessionary environment in Europe go build factories there the same thing is what you should do in China China is it has started tens of thousands of infrastructure projects they will deliver you despite the drought they had water electricity they will give you whatever you want if you just go build in China right now you could get land cheaper because real estate's plummeted like 30 you could build gigafactories cheaper in China you've got another captive Workforce because the Chinese economy is slowing down and I'll tell you the Chinese are smart freaking people okay that government is like them or not they are smart people if if Elon Musk is like yo give me three sites to build some gigafactories on they are going to roll out the red carpet right now and provide electricity power and people for Tesla to build vehicles and if we can build them cheaper there we can ship them around ideally not sell them in China because uh you know the currency issues you know sell them in America great no wait times hey instant delivery you know what a 24-hour delivery for your Tesla I mean probably not that'd be really expensive but you get what I'm saying fine but the point is that's what Tesla should be doing in my opinion right now but in the meantime we I think are going to see uh estimates for growth slowdown for Tesla so unfortunately that does mean that I believe that Tesla's growth in 2025 well actually slow to about 40 percent uh vehicle delivery uh production rate that is unfortunately below the the 50 to 60 percent that we're aiming for in 2023 and four and now but unfortunately I think that is um that is likely uh we will see however however however however despite all this foreign currency disaster and negative EPS impact which I am actually just to make my life simple building into a softer margin that's not what you're supposed to do it's just what I'm doing to make my life freaking simple okay uh I believe that Tesla's margin despite everything that I've said in this video I believe Tesla's vehicle margin will go up to 31 that means the expense margin would be a convenient 69 percent okay but I this becomes very important because when I show you the price you're going to see a huge difference that just two percent in margin can make and it'll show you how important it is to pay attention to margin but anyway despite the currency issue I think we'll be somewhere around 69 as usual I give very very little credit to Robo taxi income full self-driving income Insurance income uh semi trucks uh robots I don't give a crap about all of that right now all of that is icing on the cake all of that is my Warren Buffett margin of safety and so if you want to debate me about these vehicle numbers I'm game let's go but don't talk to me about all the speculative stuff because that's just the margin of safety anything positive coming out of that is just going to help contribute to this and give me some safety in these numbers but I'm not going to rely on those right now instead I'm going to rely on the fact that right now with these projections that I've just given you I believe we're going to see the following numbers for Tesla uh of course there's no guarantee and even though I am in the process of I uh and this video is certainly not Financial advice I believe that with the tax rate probably going down to about 19 with new credits and Factory build outs and depreciation that we'll be getting from Austin I believe that with 3.4 million shares outstanding we can expect to see earnings per share of somewhere around 10 and 33 cents which actually creates a forward price to earnings ratio of 27.4 now now that's actually pretty dang good for Tesla because that while that is forward to 2025 there are a lot of folks who like in cash to sell over value it's got a price to earnings ratio of like 180.
yeah well if you're saying that you're literally looking at trailing 12 months and you've probably never looked at an income statement in your life okay so if we're looking at forward p e ratio tests like for 2022 we're probably sitting somewhere around 55 to 60. and quite frankly that roughly matches their EPS expected growth rate which gives them a PEG ratio of close to one maybe one and a half depending on how you look at it and in my opinion that's actually a really good deal right now unless of course you compare to AMD which looks like an even better deal unless also you're looking at trailing 12 but then again you need to look at some statements and do some math but anyway so the p e ratio that I am now going to use for 2025 to come up with a future valuation of Tesla by taking the earnings per share and multiplying it by the p e ratio is now reduced from 65 to 55.
I blame the recession it is true I blame the Slowdown in the valuations market but I believe Tesla will or could trade for a 55 times multiple with the growth I expect them to have in 2025 in 2025. that creates a per share price of 568 dollars 568 dollars represents a compounded annual rate of return for the next four years of 19 percent if however margin comes in two percent lower whether it's because of commodity prices or because they have to reduce prices to get demand to come back up uh or it's just uh you know EPS is lower because of Foreign Exchange issues which is entirely possible if EPS ends up or or just margin ends up two percent lower so that is the expense margin is actually uh or the profit margin is 29 of these vehicles All Things Considered instead of uh 31 like in my other truck the price would actually potentially only go to 500 which represents a 15 percent uh compounded annual return so you see an almost two percentage Point return on your compounded annual return the next four years for every one percent in margin we see at Tesla that's huge that's like you write that down on a post note that shows you how important margin is but it's not just going to be margin it's going to be I promise you it is going to be foreign exchanger this time now again I can't make guarantees my promise is worth exactly what you paid for it which is literally zero you paid no money to watch this video maybe you had to sit through some ads maybe you had to sit through me saying that I have a coupon code that expires at the end of the week and that if you want to wire money for house hike you should do that before Friday so that way you get the most amount of warrants yeah maybe you had to go through that but you also got to experience me saying when Tesla comes over here and tells us that they have an income in the quarter of 1.1 billion dollars last year Q2 and 2.2 billion dollars this year Q2 with the Shanghai shutdown this by the way considering about a 421 million dollar currency adjustment if we end up getting uh one billion dollar currency adjustment we could actually end up seeing this number here go to something like two bill because maybe it would have been 2.7 but we get it this massive currency adjustment and people are going to go oh my gosh EPS is declining so I don't know I hope not I told you I'd give you an update but I still hold pre-split over 26 000 shares of Tesla so I want this sucker to go up but there are definitely some potential headwinds I hope Tesla and Elon have figured out thanks for watching and good luck
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