저자: ForgetStocks채널진행자Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
FHFA 주택가격지수 7월 전월비 -0.6%(연율 약 -7.2%)와 케이스-쉴러 지수 음전환을 근거로 미국 주택가격 하락이 가속될 것이라고 주장. 지역별로는 태평양(샌프란시스코 연율 약 -43%, 시애틀, 샌디에이고)과 뉴잉글랜드, 산악지역 하락이 크다고 제시. 금리 고착 기조와 재택근무 수요 감소가 원인이며 줌타운 가격 반전 위험도 언급.
다듬은 글
well we've got three massive pieces of housing data that are out and you've got to know about these whether you're watching this now or you're watching this three months from now the data that you're going to learn here and the information in this is going to help prepare you for where to go shopping for Real Estate when this Market continues to crash because I'm specifically going to go through some locations that are really getting hurt the most we're gonna break it all down folks I just want you to remember back in January remember how we talked about how the bad part of housing price is falling isn't that housing prices are going to fall which we knew would have happened we knew prices would come down because rates were going up that was simple like my seven-year-old could have told us that but the real problem is not that rates are pushing prices down it's that price is going down leads to media coverage of prices going down and the fear that goes along with that is painful that is when you get real price declines so you've now got Bloomberg running headline articles saying things like say goodbye to the housing Bull Run and Barons running headlines with quote the seven percent mortgages are near and they're basically here now especially with movements in the 10-year today and don't even get me started on Zoom Town Zoom is now being blamed for sixty percent of housing price increases in certain areas and just wait until this reverses but fear folks fear is what leads to cancellations and pauses and purchases and the collapse of home buyer demand all you have to do to see this is look at Lennar the nation's second largest homebuilder look at their last earnings report and if you don't want to look at that don't worry about it I made a whole video breaking it down you can see my real estate playlist all my real estate videos are in order just and I'll put a link there for the real estate playlist for you greatest issue ishitions and price reduction demands in their category three markets which basically ones that are suffering the worst although all categories of the Lennar markets are suffering but today we have three core pieces of data that we've got to talk about that are going to help guide us in terms of maybe where we want to go do some shopping now keep in mind I will be personally meeting a lot of you real estate agents out there in various different markets around the country because that's going to be my job with house hack is traveling and studying markets in person you have to do real estate in person you can't do it sitting behind a computer you've got to know the market in person when I was selling my homes uh the the 85 of my real estate portfolio and I started selling them at the end of January beginning February and I sold them through June I promise you I saw the crest because I saw it in person let me give you an example I put a house up on the market the first week of February I have an open house on a Sunday I get swore armed with 50 to 60 people during that open house in a one-hour window there were so many cars on the street which is usually empty I couldn't even find a parking spot I had to walk about 15 houses just to get to my house I was selling it was a mad house absolutely crazy contrast that with June I put a place on the market same style of open house same marketing multiple properties I got maybe five people okay that was February to June just picture now compared to June okay like things are worse now okay but it's that kind of stuff that you can feel and you see it way before it shows up in the data now we are going to talk about the data because the data is important to look at as well because it it guides us to a specific location of where potentially maximum pain is keep in mind if you are a real estate agent and you want me to explore your area make sure you're part of because in Discord there's a whole section for agents where you can put basically your business card just type it up with your business card into certain areas like the 20 to 30 locations or whatever and then I'll be able to go through those and say hey I'm coming to your area this time are you available I'd love to see some properties love to learn about your market and then that way we can pick from those for house hack which is accepting wires for the first round with the largest warrants uh until Friday if you're accredited you can go there now non-accredited stay tuned okay so first piece of data this morning morning 6 a.m this morning we got the FHA home price data year over year we are still up 13.9 percent on home prices which is great but anybody looking at just the year over year chart is missing the bigger picture which is that Nationwide home prices in July I have a bone to pick with why this is July and not like August but anyway home prices in July we're down point six percent that is an annualized decline folks of 7.2 percent on top of what we've already seen we've already seen Nationwide home prices come down 5.5 percent now we're declining at a rate of 7.2 percent just adding those together assuming the trajectory does not get worse means we are already spelling out a 12.7 reduction in home prices now I know many of you are going to look at this and go thank God maybe I'll finally be able to afford a home don't get terribly excited we are not going back in my opinion to levels that we saw in like 2011 12 or 13.
probably going back to pre-pandemic levels maybe even lower than pre-pandemic levels because rates are so ridiculously high I just got an update that Neil kashgari is coming out squashing with Charles Evans said this morning Neil kashgari saying we're not going to make the same mistake as last time we're going to keep rates higher for longer all that means is more permanent damage to the real estate market that's all it means now we're going to talk about specific areas as well and some other data sets that we really need to address but here's where you gotta know right here this chart this chart tells us what home prices did and where these things happened the worst from June 22nd to July 22nd let me actually pause there for a moment just say is it not ridiculous that this housing price data doesn't actually come to us until two months later how stupid is that this is like such lagging data now it's still useful because we're going to look at where the pain is in different markets but I'm telling you if you're looking at this to guide you for home prices it's already way worse than this you have here's the way to know what really is happening boots on the ground you pick up the phone you see a three and two that last month sold for four hundred thousand dollars you call the listing agent on a three and two that's a similar square footage that just went into escrow okay so one closed last month let's say for Foreigner K you find the same one that's up for sale again similar condition hopefully you call up that agent go hey or have your agent do it it's usually easier when agents do it hey you know just curious uh your house over here on crestshire uh did you all get close to ask I see you're asking 389 and if they tell you oh wow we had so many offers we went over then that's a good sign that maybe home price declines have stabilized if they say something like ah well you know uh I can't tell you exactly okay no problem I don't want you to have to tell me exactly that's fine I respect that I mean if they tell you exactly great but just keep asking questions right hey uh just wondering you like did you have a lot of offers like was it really competitive or has it slowed down oh yeah it's really slowed down a lot oh so what me and maybe got like one offer two offers you yeah I just got one off or okay so so safe to say maybe like not full price but but close right yeah yeah probably yeah okay well they just basically told you they got 375 okay now you can measure a decline you have to know how to talk to people okay basic basic real estate real estate is people you have to respect people you have to honor people you have to be physical with people like I don't mean like beating them up okay I mean like you gotta meet people you gotta shake hands that's real estate stocks ain't that stocks is 27 different monitors and the sticks okay different world anyway that said where's the paint right here folks here we go let's see what we got so the uh us as a whole declined at an average pace of about 7.2 percent on a monthly basis in July but look at this folks the worst out of all of them the Pacific and the New England area this is really interesting because it's really implying that the most damaged locations are actually the coastlines so I like to write these things down coastlines most damaged which is interesting to me because coastlines are the most desirable generally uh areas of land mass that we have in America especially Southern California coastline which don't worry we're going to be bashing on California in just a moment but there is nowhere like Southern California that has the weather like Southern California in the United States that's it the only place in the entire United States that has the Mediterranean climate also known as a Chaparral climate is the southern coast of California that's it not Inland California not Central not Northern California not anywhere else in the United States you want that weather SoCal Coastline that's it but this is actually where you're seeing some of the damage some of the highest damage is along the Pacific and we'll talk about specifically some of this some areas but after that the next most damaged area appears to be the mountain area here so I wonder if this would be considered like Utah or like parts of Idaho or something like that you actually have the least amount of damage in the uh East and West North Central Area so so kind of that upper middle section that core section of America you almost have no housing price declines uh and and I mean you had larger housing price declines in the month prior so it's not like you're immune over here and we expect more damage to happen but relative to the where the declines are the worst the worst declines appear to be happening consistently in the mountain areas and in the Pacific region and the New England areas South Atlantic this would be like South Florida here's another area that potentially is starting to get hit although they did have positive price momentum the month before that month over month but it does look like potentially that Peak has hit so it looks like you hit your first like the first area to hit Peak was uh the Pacific so that was probably the first area to hit Peak and I'm looking at that as the first one over here to turn negative and then the next ones to turn negative have been New England by looking right here so two uh east north central three west north central four and the mountain five so these all sort of hit Peak next and then presumably we're going to see Peak next over here at West South Central East uh South Central and Mid-Atlantic it's gonna be like your Mississippi and Louisiana and then Texas okay fascinating so this gives us a little bit about locale but what else do we know about Locale huh well let me tell you about Locale listen to this San Francisco okay a month over month this is insane because when when you're going down at this speed that I'm about to tell you you can multiply it by 12 and roughly approximate where you could be after a year now you do not compound this I'm not going to go through the math as to why right now but we're just trying to figure out an annualized rate annualized rate is just simply times 12.
don't try to get fancy with exponents here okay 3.6 percent is the decline San Francisco faced in one month this is insane but a 3.6 decline is equal to a negative 43.2 percent annualized pace for San Francisco that bubble has popped but it ain't just San Francisco which is a big part of the Pacific it's Seattle Seattle folks down 2.5 percent that is a 30 annualized decline and San Diego is an immune either you're almost going down the whole Coastline of the Pacific it's bad San Diego down two percent which annualizes to an annualized rate of decline of 24 percent just so you can visualize that home prices are declining there are two important charts that you now need to look at number one is this look the reality is yes home prices on a nominal level have barely moved down this is why we still see year-over-year gains because look at the chart obviously if you look back a year ago from here you're going to be higher by that amount but the point is this has happened the trajectory has changed you see that little inflection point small right now I told you about it right here right before it happened I told you about it right here and I'm telling you about it right here that's why you want to be subscribed to the channel but we've been talking about this since January this inflection point coming and there's still time but I would not be surprised to see a substantial uh move to the downside here especially with higher rates or longer if you want to visualize the inflection point a little bit better take a look at this chart right here this shows you a month over month decline in home prices and it shows you that for the first time all the way since over here in 2011.
for the first time the case Shiller has officially gone negative this is your second piece of data first the fhfa data now the case Shiller is negative as well that's your second piece of data in this video Okay C chart all positive except for here and if you look at where we got the big gains look at the big gains folks that right there is a bubble that's called a housing bubble this was sustainable and that's why I wouldn't be surprised if we adjust back to not only these sorts of levels over here but potentially over correct a little bit further because interest rates are so aggressive right now to levels of like 2018 2019.
which that is a buying opportunity that's why I'm creating the startup house hack to take advantage of this buying opportunity that I believe is happening that I think is a once in a lifetime opportunity if you could buy real estate yourself do it I'm not saying you have to be part of househack but if you don't have the time or or the knowledge to handle real estate I mean you could always jo the real estate agent course you can learn everything I know so it's like I I will give you everything I know I'm not worried about you competing with me and house hack they're gonna be plenty of deals for me at house I am not worried about that whatsoever but you definitely want to make sure you take advantage of this real estate cycle now the third piece of data that we have to understand is that 60 of home price appreciation was due to remote work that's insane so that means areas like Boise Idaho could potentially see a complete reversal of that so let me give you an example if home prices went up 50 percent and 60 of those so about 30 of that fifty percent was due to remote work if remote work plummets like 80 percent roughly we could see home prices fall 24 in that kind of remote remote work region solely because of remote work add remote work or take remote work that 24 decline add to that interest rates buyer purchasing power down 40 add to that fear you're gonna have a devastating reversal in certain Zoom towns those are potentially also opportunities but you have to be careful of something called a real estate value trap with househack we are only going to invest in high quality areas that will be areas people want to move to no matter if they're Zoom or not that is critical and so you have to find those areas yourself and I'm going to be exploring the country for those so if you are a real estate agent join the courses down below drop your information in the uh the locations that I have listed and if you want to suggest other locations there's a discussion forum you have to be a course member to see accesses any of the courses works and you'll also be able to join me in the daily live streams but anyway this is bad for Real Estate it's happening and it's getting real we're just getting the data the official data here with a stupid two-month delay which is moronic I've been telling you this since before it happened because there are ways you can read the real estate market that don't rely on these National statistics that lag so much imagine what these statistics are going to say when we get the year-over-year numbers and March April May June of next year in 2023. combine that with high rates that's when you have Panic good luck my friends
Comments 0