저자: DanIves · 외국인
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테슬라 주가는 바닥을 쳤다는 것이 Dan Ives의 판단이다. 핵심 주장: 중국과 미국에서 수요 균열이 보이고 전기차 경쟁이 심화되는 가운데, 테슬라의 가격 인하가 주가의 마지막 충격(straw that broke the camel's back)이었다고 평가. 다만 현재는 공포에 과매도된 상태로 봐서 지금 주식을 던질 때가 아니라고 주장. 근거 수치: 2022년 말 Ives는 목표주가를 250달러에서 175달러로 하향. 11월 베스트 아이디어 리스트에서 제외. 2023년 초 주가는 11월 이후 약 43% 하락. 연초 기준 주당 5달러 이상의 이익 체력이 있다고 언급. 머스크의 트위터 인수 이후 주가는 65% 이상 하락, 머스크는 약 230억 달러 규모의 주식을 매도. 종목 방향: 테슬라 – 바닥 형성, 현 시점 보유 또는 매수 관점. 중국 시장에서 BYD 등 경쟁 심화, 중국 매출 비중(40%대) 우려. 리스크: 중국 수요 약화로 추가 가격 인하 및 가격 전쟁 가능성, 미국 경기침체 우려, 사이버트럭 등 제품 일정 지연, 머스크 리더십 및 트위터 이슈. 출연자 전망: Ives는 테슬라의 최악의 해를 끝이 아닌 일시적 고통으로 봐야 한다고 봄. JP모건 Ryan Brinkman도 이익 추정치를 하향했지만 Ives와 유사한 시각. Gene Munster는 장기적으로 더 큰 기업이 될 수 있다고 평가. Gordon Johnson은 테슬라에 대한 강한 비관론자로 주가 추가 하락을 전망.
다듬은 글
what are your thoughts about Tesla stock Tesla stock is one of the most watched stocks in the market today several analysts keep their eyes on the leading EV company throughout the year that said wed Bush analyst Dan Ives said the Tesla stock has bottomed already don't miss this info Tesla clearly is starting to see demand cracks in China and in the U.S at a time that EV competition is increasing across the board said Dan Ives a tech analyst with wedbush Securities and a Tesla bull who cut his price target for the stock in late December from 250 to 175.
the price cut that Tesla enacted was the straw that broke the camel's back on the stock Daniel lives known simply as Dan Ives is a managing director and Senior equity research analyst covering the technology sector at wedbush Securities since 2018. Dan has been a tech analyst on Wall Street for over two decades covering the software and broader technology sector he is a globally known technology equity research analyst and managing director with FBR Capital markets for 16 years focusing on the enterprise software Hardware sectors including cyber security cloud computing Big Data technology and the mobile landscape a major area of his research focus is electric vehicles and disruptive technology over the next decade this explains his religious study of Tesla and its stock in early November Tesla stock was removed from wedbush's best ideas list over Tesla CEO Elon musk's Twitter debacle experts believe that Twitter has become an albatross for Tesla stock and so Wall Street is reacting to the cross-contamination between social media and the automotive brand that said wedbush analyst Dan Ives removed Tesla stock from his best ideas list and cut his price Target to 250 dollars from 300 although he still rates the shares at buy note that this was in November and Ives has since cut down his Tesla price Target to 175 dollars in December at the time a popular misconception about Elon Musk and Tesla emerged musk's Twitter Venture is is the main reason Tesla shares have lost so much value this year although musk may have been giving signs that he may give up as CEO title at Twitter investors became concerned that the outlook for Tesla's sales and profit is taking a turn for the worse in light of this Tesla has announced a rare sale which some see as a sign of weakening demand the company offered two rebates for buyers who take delivery of a vehicle before the end of 2022 initially offering a 3 750 discount in early December Tesla then doubled that rebate to 7 500 in late December to this wed Bush analyst Dan Ives shared that Tesla is starting to see demand cracks in China and the U.S at a time that EV competition is increasing across the board he added that the price cuts that Tesla enacted were the straw that broke the camel's back on the stock experts believe another reason why Tesla's stock is syncing is that the U.S economy could tip into recession this year herding Car Sales musk previously said on a Twitter spaces call that he foresees the economy will be in a serious recession in 2023 I think there's going to be some macro drama that's higher than people currently think he said according to Reuters adding that homes and cars will get disproportionately impacted by economic conditions in early January I've said that Tesla's Cinderella ride is over and demand is starting to crack although Tesla delivered more cars than ever in 2022 it still wasn't enough to meet its own lofty forecasts still Tesla Watcher and Twitter CEO Elon Musk critic Dan Ives is sounding a bit more optimistic about Tesla stock after a major hammering to kick off 2023 with five plus dollars of earnings power still hittable and the stock in free fall we do not believe now is the time to bail on the stock the wedbush managing director stated in a new client note on Wednesday adding that the stock is way oversold on fears of the unknown are around the corner Ives has been highly critical of musk's chaotic leadership at Twitter and off in front of the fierce sell-off in Tesla that began in the latter months of 2022 removing the stock from his best ideas list in November as was earlier mentioned since that call Tesla's stock has crashed by about 43 percent the major worry now overhead for Tesla is that the demand story especially out of China is showing heavy cracks in the armor at a time that EV competition is steadily increasing domestically with Neo byd x-pang and others fighting for a smaller pie with the Chinese consumer weakening Ives wrote with China representing 40 plus of the global growth story for Tesla this is a heavy concern for the street which will likely result in more significant price Cuts over the coming months to Spur demand as a potential pricing War takes place to gain market share in a darker macro backdrop JP Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman appears to share Ives view as he notably cut his profit estimates and price Target on Tesla in the wake of the Q4 delivery and production numbers being reported part of the problem with Tesla's stock price is that critics question whether it was ever worth the trillion dollar valuation it had at the start of 2022 at its peak Tesla was worth more than the 12 largest automakers on the planet combined despite having a fraction of the sales of any of them today it is worth around 399 billion dollars it got ahead of itself in the near term said Gene Munster of loop Ventures another Tesla fan I still believe this can be a much bigger company I think it will see those kinds of numbers again but it could take a long long time to get there Tesla's growth prospects a target of 50 sales growth annually as Tesla CEO Elon Musk shared in a previous earnings call helped drive that valuation it conceded in October that it will miss that sales Target for this year the Stock's significant climb Rising 743 percent in 2020 alone was driven by musk's reputation as a genius who would disrupt the massive Global Auto industry Tesla was viewed as a disruptive technology company not as an automaker and a large part of that premium is related to Mass said Ives Tesla Critics on the other hand said much of its sky-high valuation was based on promises that musk made about future products many of which came years after they were originally promised a good example is the Cyber truck the Tesla pickup truck first unveiled three years ago with promises that production would start in 2021 now production is slated to start this year with a ramp up in production in 2024 putting it years behind other electric pickup offerings from Ford and upstart EV maker rivien both of which have electric pickups available for purchase today it could also Trail planned electric pickup offerings from General Motors Elon Musk has a pathological problem with the truth said Gordon Johnson one of the largest critics of Tesla among analysts when people say he's a genius and innovator it's based on all his promises he never lives up to Johnson said Tesla shares will have a much steeper fall ahead once it starts being priced like other automakers rather than on its promises he said that for Tesla to hit its growth targets it needs to be building new plants almost every year but that new factories in Germany and Texas that opened in Spring are still not operating at full capacity and he said that its plant in China has had to scale back production due to weak sales in the market in the face of the covid restrictions demand in the U.S has collapsed he said two months ago your wait time was two or three months now you can get one immediately they're going to build more cars than they sell for a third straight quarter it's the definition of excess capacity Tesla is still by far the largest ev maker worldwide although that title is being challenged in some key markets by Volkswagen in Europe and byd in China and more competition is coming from established automakers such as Ford and GM musk's seemingly chaotic Twitter Venture didn't help make matters any better Tesla shares have lost over 65 percent of their value since musk's interest in Twitter was first disclosed in April with a nearly 50 decline since he closed on the deal in late October investors have been disappointed that musk appears to be paying for so much of his 44 billion dollar purchase of Twitter by selling Tesla stock musk Tesla's largest shareholder has sold 23 billion dollars worth of Tesla shares since his interest in Twitter became public in April on our Twitter spaces call in December musk promised he was done selling shares of Tesla stock until at least 2024.
if not Beyond however he hasn't lived up to a previous promise in April that he was done selling Tesla shares selling 14.4 billion dollars of that stock since that time it's been a Pinocchio situation for musk saying he's done selling stock investors want to see him walk the walk and not just talk the talk said Ives still Dan Ive says Tesla's worst year on record shouldn't be viewed as the end of the story but rather a painful interim speed bump subscribe to Tesla stock for more
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