저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 주식시장은 외국인·국내 투자자 모두의 관심이 높아 낙관적이며, 특히 소형·중형주와 리테일 주식 열풍이 구조적으로 이어질 것이라는 견해. 컨퍼런스 분위기: 제19회 글로벌 투자자 컨퍼런스에 200여 개 기업, 1000명 이상의 투자자가 참여하며 한국·대만·일본 등 새로운 국가의 기관 참여가 늘었음. 미팅 요청은 2.5만~3만 건인데 실제 주선 가능 건수는 7~8천 건 수준이라 관심이 높다고 설명. 외국인 투자 동향: 외국인(FII) 기관 매수는 최근 한두 달 위축됐으나, 과거 30년간 순매도는 드물었고 향후 3년간 외국인이 의미 있게 순매도 전환할 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 리테일 구조 변화: 2020년 1월 이후 디지털 온보딩으로 증권계좌 개설이 월 3~5만 건에서 250만~300만 건으로 급증. 계좌 수는 4천만→1.3억 명, 장기적으로 2억 명 수준까지 확대 전망. 인구 증가·가처분소득 증가·기업 이익 증가 세 요인이 겹침. 중소형주 전망: 소형·중형주는 최근 몇 년간 글로벌 최고 성과 자산군. 과거 PER 한 자릿수에서 현재는 밸류에이션이 높아졌지만 성장성이 빠르다고 평가. 리테일은 HDFC은행 등 대형주보다 정보 접근이 쉬운 중소형 종목을 선호. 테마는 방산→NBFC 등으로 순환하겠지만 중소형 섹터의 흥미는 지속될 것이라 전망. 리스크: 특정 종목 유통주식이 제한적이어서 매수세가 가격을 왜곡할 수 있으며, 결국 기업 실적 기반 가치가 수준을 결정할 것이라는 점 인정. 모든 기업이 무한 성장할 수 없어 테마 교체 가능성 언급. 출연자 전망: 리테일 열풍과 실적 성장이 맞물려 인도 시장 낙관론 유지.
다듬은 글
well the motor Los file annual conference is kicking off today it is the 19th annual Global investor conference and as always the conference promises to bring together top CEOs a diverse range of eminent speakers experts over the next few sessions few days here in Mumbai well uh you know according to uh both illal we're talking a 200 plus companies with thousand plus investors from across the globe ramde Agarwal is the driving force behind the research Endeavors at Motorola Financial Services he's joining us he's chairman co-founder at the company uh secondary great appreciate it I can see the sort of activity starting up behind you so it's always a very vibrant event and thank you once again for joining us on the sidelines of it uh what what are you most excited about ramdev about from this conference what is what are you hoping to learn from all the companies who are going to be there and all the investors are going to be there because it's way process right I mean they'd want to hear from you and you'll hear from them what what what's top of mind for you really this morning and over the next couple of days yeah good morning Prashant I think uh the the mood is set we are at all time high and uh after a long time there will be a full participation because last year was the first year post uh covet still participation and muted but this year I think investors have come in full force and people are coming from apart from domestic ones we are getting the delegates from uh newer countries like Korea Taiwan Japan you know from usual Hong Kong Singapore U.S London those those guys they have been coming in the past but now we are seeing slew of new countries joining in so we'll get opportunity to interact with all of them and even the company's lineup is about 220 225 companies so I think it's a big Mela for next three days and I'm I'm trying to cash few uh Trends uh what's happening in terms of uh what's happening in the economy on the ground because all the operators are there second is that what is the thinking of of FIS in terms of their confidence in India how do they think and you know their allocation there they would they like to be still conservative or would they be this is 23 24 will be the year of again coming back into Indian market so those are discussions which are going to come and we will be more in listening more than you know too much of asking hi good morning this is Sonia here and all the best for the conference so it's very interesting right to hear that uh so many fiis from new geographies have registered this time around and if you look at the data that has come into the Indian markets in terms of Fri flows as well FBI flows rather it's been the highest in India compared to the rest of Asia so what is the sense that you're getting from the interactions you've had already is the interest still as high as what it was in the last six eight months or is there now a little bit of caution that's kicking in very good morning I think it is too early we are just coming here uh to the venue and uh through the day and I meant till late night and tomorrow and day after I think two three days will be I'll be interacting with all of them and uh during my conversation only we can figure out uh what kind of Interest they have but right now I would say there is an optimism and the number of I mean I'm going by the fact that the kind of a request which is there for uh the participation and the number of meetings I think we can do about say seven eight thousand meetings effectively but the request is for 25 to 30 000 meetings so that tells me that in financial interest is very high of course domestic demands but even the foreign demands or the meetings are quite High um hi good morning Mr Agarwal Nigel on this side uh you know a lot of foreign interest as well a lot of big hnis from all across the country as well you know have come for this conference and a lot of them we don't get to meet but because of the conference we're going to be catching up with some of them post the conference but tell us about the interest levels uh you know particularly the mid and the small cap space because that's been an outperforming index for the last five to around six months is there still big interest out there and what's your view have it run a little bit ahead of itself yeah so I think it is to do with the structure of the market you know still the institutional activity particularly from the FI side for last a month or so they will subdued but we are passing through one of the i in fact I'm presenting on that India's uh India's retail Equity Revolution it's nothing less than revolution in what has happened post covet and what is happening and what could happen in next three four years so we are trying to compile this thing so the impact of retail Equity Revolution or demand accounts are opening Party official participation going from 30 40 million to 100 120 130 30 million and trying to become more like 200 million in the years ahead I think I would think that interest level will actually become bigger and bigger and these are counters where uh with limited floating stock but a lot of buying power so that tends to distort at some point of time but uh eventually the copper turning underlying will decide the levels where it will settle uh you know so if I go to uh to ask you right now right for uh the small cap space here has been the best performing uh you know in a way asset class uh not just here in India but maybe around from around the world uh maybe this year or whatever time period you want to use since the rally began so where are we I mean are we is that space looking still quite okay to you you have a sense of History you've seen you've seen this play out many times before what's your sense is it time to take the foot off the pedal a little bit or uh you know fundamentals and earnings there are looking healthy enough to kind of sustain this up move our biggest problem is that we have seen 40 Years of the market we have seen such low levels of the market you know the mid cap is smaller so neglected I'm a single digit P was you know they were thankful but today uh today is just just the different kind of thing so many times I'm not able to appreciate the valuations granted to smaller mid-size companies of course they are growing very rapidly so I mean that's the kind of thing but as I said it is a structural boom from the retail side and Retail is not happy buying HDFC bank and icsa bank they are happy playing out on uh more on you know this middle and small size companies where they have access to the information and they can also size up their bets so I would think that excitement will continue of course it may shift from one sector to other sector one company to other company because no company can keep growing to the sky but but I think you will find a lot of excitement in this modern bed caps and the the names of the companies will keep changing today it is defense tomorrow it could be nbfc they after it could be some other theme so whatever themes comes but I think that sector will remain quite exciting no you know you started by answering that question by citing retail flows now and that is also a big structural driver now which was not there even three four five years ago so that yeah but uh yeah how much of the boom that we're seeing in this part in that part of the market is because of this uh and and how much of it is driven by it's a mix obviously but I'm just saying is it uh is it retail money chasing some of these stocks up because you've got to square the square that off against uh earnings growth and valuations Etc so just trying to get a sense from you from there yeah so uh Prashant what has happened is that uh in the past till about say January 20 so this this entire phenomenon is just about three years old so before that the retail participation was extremely muted let me give you some number the number of demand accounts opening every month was about three to four lakhs and at best it will go to Five lakhs the moment uh the digital onboarding is started it shot up to 30 to 40 lakhs now the average between 20 and 23 is more like uh two and a half three million per month and in between when the market was collecting it dipped and now again it has come back to two and a half three million so this is very Relentless there is a lot of juice in the number of participants which are going to comment I mean you can imagine uh from 40 million to 130 million and that going to 250 million so the uh the at least the Boom in participation participants is on now what it will do see the two three forces coming together one increasing uh increasing number of participants second the increasing uh disposable income of all these guys so uh and third is the increasing copper earnings so when all three come together and uh and if you look at from the FI side if I will last 30 years have sold only five five times and last time was the last year so I think I would think probabilistically they would not be net seller in a meaningful way for next to three years so now you have uh foreigners buying retail buying copper diamond very good I think you can't get a better picture than this okay we'll end that on a positive note Ram they are all the best for the conference and thanks a lot for joining us to give us a primer on what to expect from the Motorola conference well let's move foreign
Comments 0