저자: JonathanTwomley · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오의 신간 'The Debt Super Cycle' 논지(부채 사이클이 결국 터지며 미국의 패권이 흔들릴 수 있다)를 소개하는 대담으로, 구체적 투자 방향 예측은 없다. [달리오 신간 개요] 진행자는 달리오의 기존 'Principles', 'Big Debt Crises'(부채 위기 200년 분석)를 언급하며, 신간은 후자를 코로나 이후 상황으로 업데이트한 것이라고 설명한다. 저자는 순환(cycle)과 강대국 교체를 핵심 주제로 삼는다. [달리오의 우려] 부채 사이클이 결국 붕괴할 것으로 보며, 향후 3~5년 내 미국이 세계 1위 강국 지위를 잃을 가능성(중국의 추월)을 우려한다. 진행자는 달리오를 '긴장한(nervous) 투자자'로 평가한다. [출연자 견해] 부채 문제는 오랫동안 누적된 문제이며, 경제가 값싼 돈에 중독되어 있다고 본다. 결국 대가를 치러야 하며, 2008년 금융위기 때 그 기회가 있었으나 놓쳤다고 평가한다. 과거 버냉키의 유동성 공급이 경기 회복에는 도움이 됐지만 장기 해법은 없었다는 입장이다. [인플레이션·부채 해소 경로] 부채 과잉이 누적되면 결국 고인플레이션으로 화폐가치를 깎아내리거나 디폴트 중 하나를 택해야 하며, 둘 다 나쁜 선택이라고 본다. 1990년대 후반 클린턴 시기에만 재정 긴축으로 부채가 감소했다고 언급한다. [금리 정책] 파월 연준이 볼커처럼 고통을 감수하며 금리를 크게 올려야 한다는 의견을 제시한다(예: 2~3%p 수준 언급). 다만 현재 기업 부채가 1970년대보다 훨씬 높아 금리 인상의 여지가 제한된다고 본다. [종목·자산 언급] 본문에서 대상 자산(삼성전자, 비트코인, 금, 미국채 등)에 대한 직접 언급은 없음. 달리오 관련 부채·환율 우려만 간접적으로 언급됨. [리스크] 부채 누적에 따른 인플레이션 또는 디폴트, 금리 인상 시 기업 파산 위험, 강대국 지위 변화. [기타] 영상 후반부는 출연자의 투자자 리스트·페이스북 그룹 홍보로 전개됨.
다듬은 글
good morning good afternoon and good evening folks michael zuber one red till out of time back with this thursday expert and good friend of the channel mr jonathan twomley how you doing sir i'm doing great michael how are you i'm doing great so thank you for the first two conversations number three is actually about one of those investors where if their name is mentioned in the title i will read it first is obviously warren buffett kind of the first investor i bumped into back in college but the second one is ray dalio ray dalio is someone i have been following for a while he wrote a book called principles three or four years ago which is really thick and really a dense read but worth it if you understand the numbers and of course ray dalio just came out with his second book which i'm about 30 through so i thought i'd ask you you know a do you know who he is do you you know follow him at all and then i'll kind of share what i what i'm taking in from rey's second book yeah sure no i obviously know who ray dalio is i haven't read the book principles but i did read with great interest his history of debt crisis which is a very interesting uh kind of analysis of like every debt crisis for the last 200 years and how it played out so yeah that you know he it's interesting that he put that out a couple of years ago uh before you know trillion dollars before covet and before everything just made the debt crisis even worse yeah so i i should go back and read that again yeah so what he's essentially done is he's actually taken that book as the i call it the shell of his new book and he's basically updated it for kovid in trillions of dollars because it's very up to date and basically what i'm taking away and again keep in mind i'm 30 through it i will finish it probably hopefully before the beginning of the year he's basically talking about the debt cycle he's talking about all things running in cycles and all he's talking about um you know just all just the big number one power doesn't last forever if there's a cycle someone else will come up and so essentially he's pretty down on the debt cycle he thinks that's gonna blow up uh he's very concerned i guess i would say about china kind of overtaking the us it was kind of a big takeaway and um yeah he's um he's a nervous i would call him nervous he's a nervous investor he's he thinks something's gonna happen in the next three to five years where maybe the u.s isn't the number one power anymore which is like when you think about 200 and some odd years it's like right around the corner the next four or five years so pretty concerning yeah well um so what would you like me to comment on well hey just you know obviously you read bray's first book which is really the crux of this new one um he's he's not big on the debt cycle right he thinks that's going to pop versus kind of resolve itself right again trillions of dollars on top of what was there um so what were your takeaways from that do you see this 100 year cycle just kind of coming to an end and it has to pop or it seems kind of yeah i mean these things can't last forever you know i mean there's another book i don't know if you've read the kenneth rogoff and his partner this time is different oh i have not seen that one you know it came out right after the financial crisis and it's sort of a similar book talking about how about debt and how debt is really what sort of kills everything and there's always this there's always a uh a a opium like you used in the last uh about about well this time is different this time we'll grow our way out of the debt or they'll you know something something magical will happen so that it won't come back to bite us um so yeah i mean i think that this is it's a it's a problem it's been a problem for a long time um and you know economies get addicted to all to cheat money and and not that's that wrinkle right there that's the wrinkle for me is we've got to eventually pay the price i don't think we finally i don't think we paid the price in the great recession i think there was a chance you could have washed the system yeah uh but we didn't i think i think the next we we've eventually got to pay it or this thing just breaks apart yeah i mean you know the interesting interesting thing about the great recession is that uh you have to look at sort of who was in charge when it happened right and the folks who were in charge you know uh i.e bernanke and and his troonies yep were all students of the great depression correct were disciples of milton friedman right and they milton friedman's argument was that the problem with the the reason that the great depression became a great depression was because of a lack of liquidity the market seized up and and it just made the economy grind to a halt so the solution is liquidity so when the great financial crisis hit bernanke having been a student of that history said you know austerity is not austerity is the wrong move that's what they did in the authorities we tried that before it didn't work right they caused you know austerity caused the great recession and and prolonged it actually i mean if you know the history of the great recession in like 1937 uh roosevelt actually tried to start rolling back the new deal and it dipped the economy back into recession again right so uh so the you know liquidity was necessary in the view of um bernanke et cetera right so that's why we got you know didn't clean up the mess we just threw a lot of money at it and i mean it worked in the sense that like it got the economy growing again and it got people to feel better but there was no there was no sort of long term like well how do we get out of this right right and i think that and i think that's what and so dalio's books i mean it was the book that i read of his in a way it sort of makes it seem like there isn't really a whole lot of other choice right like you have to keep on throwing more debt it's very very difficult to like stop throwing more debt at the problem like all of the forces of the economy like are aligned behind that because everybody because it works yeah people want it and they want to have more debt and frankly as much as people are talking about being afraid of inflation they actually they want inflation yeah inflation is one way to get rid of debt well that's true but also like people want inflation because you have inflation in a growing economy right you don't have you don't have like hyper inflation yeah you have six four five six not fifty right but you have inflation like you because because the alternative is deflation and you only have deflation when you have a recession like a real distance right so inflation mild inflation is something that you that's why the fed was always targeting two percent they're trying to get it up to two percent inflation right so but you're walking along this like on a knife's ads essentially because you're throwing money into the into the economy to try to heat it up but if it heats up too much right then you have inflation and then you have a crash so the bankers are kind of like in a sticky situation and i think that's what kind of like dahlia was talking about is that it's sort of inevitable that what happens is debt until the whole system crashes right but you keep on throwing new debt at the problem until the debt overload has become so great that either you have to hyperinflate it away or you have to default right and and either both are terrible there's no good solution yeah both of those are bad bankers are always you know and the government is always thinking that it can grow its way out but the problem is that they never they never take the measures needed to do except for the late 90s right when we actually started we did actually through a combination of small tax raises and a hot economy started paying down the debt yeah clinton clinton here the last couple years of clinton yeah yeah and so actually that debt in times square started running in reverse yeah i remember yeah but then when we went back to like you know more tax cuts and more cheap easy money then and no spending cuts along with it then you just drove the debt machine again yeah and so it's you know without some like real discipline on the part of governments which is hard to ask them for because they're responding to guess who they're responding to me and you and me and we don't want any discipline we want yeah spend bed spend we want all we want the free stuff and we don't want to pay taxes to pay for it right so so of course the politicians who want to get elected and this is another thing as long as i'm like grinding axes it drives me nuts to no end when i hear people talking about the politicians and the government and i'm like you put them there and they're doing you ask them you want all the services and you don't want to pay for any of it and you've got to keep down the road with debt so your great-grandchildren can pay for it and you don't have to think about it you they're doing their jobs they're doing exactly what they're elected to do so stop whining about it vote them out vote now right yeah do something differently that's awesome you know so you know the government it's this is excuse me start blaming you blame your neighbors you blame the government you blame everybody but yourself for your problems the problem with you yeah right so uh but anyway that's that's my actually that um but anyway it's sort of like it's it's i think dahlia's pointing is that all these forces they're sort of larger than any particular people and it takes a lot of extraordinary things to happen for like the government to get its act together and do what the people don't want it to do which is to be responsible and and shrink the debt right yeah there's a couple of things again i'm only 30 into it um and something i've been thinking about recently i put on my channel is i think jerome powell needs to i don't know mirror or be similar to paul volcker in one regard paul volcker is the last fed chief that was willing to have pain in my opinion right he's like no i'm gonna break it i know i know we're gonna go into recession i don't care and he took rates up to 17 or 18 or whatever it was i think powell's got to do that which not necessarily 18 but maybe it's two maybe it's three you know somewhere there it doesn't have to go as high but we've i think he's got it he's got to cool this off and he's got it he's got to extract some some some people have to lose some bad deals they got done have to lose i mean that's the thing we have like removed the self-enforcing function of capitalism where like you do a bad deal and you pay for it like we've like eliminated that so there's no downside yeah create this huge moral hazard like there we go the thing is i think that i think that the um the the problem that powell has that vulca didn't have though is i don't think that american corporations were up to their neck in debt in the 1970s the way that they are now and that's and that that was a big reason why the fed immediately when covert hit dropped the funds rate oh yeah i remember because they knew that if there was any disruption of people buying stuff that like they could service their debt yeah yeah i mean a huge swath of the american corporate landscape would go into bankruptcy because it couldn't service their debt if interest rates yeah the cash flow would stop at the top and then it would they couldn't do that they couldn't service debt and bad things happen so they so and it's you know because we've had you know all through basically from you know the year 2000 to now we've had really low interest rates except for when uh you know when greenspan panicked and raised rates to try to cool off the bubble that he had on the taper yeah when you know and then and then again when when you know the the fed tried to raise interest rates a couple of years ago but they've you know they should have in 18 i think continued they should have continued that that's what i think powell needs to do i don't know where the number is it doesn't it's not going to be crazy but he's got to have the backbone when i give volcker credit for is he had a backbone it got bad but he stayed the course that's where i see greenspan and others they wilt like a i don't know whatever wilt and yeah so that's what i'm thinking so again i read ray dalio stuff i'm gonna finish the book maybe i'll finish it by probably it's a thick book so probably before new year's but yeah that'll be a fun conversation as i get to the end of this thing how can people find you so if you would like to join my investor list please go google me at two bridges asset management llc and fill out my investor form uh and you can come and join my free facebook group by going to facebook obviously and searching for multi-family investment community and please answer the questions that you're asking when you're prompted to ask them and then you're in yeah i'd strongly suggest you do both of those things i have done both i'm on his investor list and the facebook group is amazing so please join that thanks jonathan thank you michael
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