저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가 하락 원인으로 일론 머스크 친족(킴벌·로빈) 내부자 매도, 신모델 부재 우려, 보급형 모델 기대 저하, 유럽 판매 감소, 오픈AI 인수 분쟁, 자율주행 경쟁(웨이모 등) 부상, 정치 리스크를 꼽음. 현재 PE 115 수준으로 고평가이나 주가 295 이하 구간부터 분할 매수 관심을 언급. 중장기 관점에서 단기 조정 가능성 강조.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here today we've got to talk about Tesla why is the stock falling what's going on with Elon Musk what's going on with full self-driving and frankly the ability for us to compete with the other Robo taxis of the world or will Tesla be the only one let's talk about all of that and just do a very pointed video here on Tesla so first things first why is the stock falling well it could be because Robin and Kimble musk are dumping the stock NOW Robin's on the board Kim musk elon's brother they're insiders we have seen in the past that Kimble musk is pretty professional at timing uh local tops in Tesla stock and taking advantage of them so it's not a great signal however it is noise if you are a long-term investor as a long-term investor you should know that Tesla can be more volatile than Bitcoin certainly more recently uh and over its history it has not been exempt from large swings and valuations potentially as much as 70% declines and then of course you get these these doubles to two and a half xers and you get these declines again this is normal this is just what happens with a stock that is is growing now typically Tesla should have already matured past this phase but but you've got some issues because one of the problems uh that we face not just from Insider selling is uh expectation versus reality one of the expectations is that uh we are going to get new models of vehicles in 2025 and H I have been of the mindset that there will not be a new model in 2025 there will just be different variants of existing models and so far I don't want to be right on this because I really want a new model of Tesla ideally a bigger one uh but uh unfortunately I think we're going to see the pitch of the refreshed model y now the launch Series Tesla as the next model of vehicle or the seven seat model y being promoted in Europe to get around those vat taxes that's that's great but maybe even a new variant of the model 3 but these aren't new more affordable models if anything some of these models are actually more expensive now you're getting more with the refresh series but you're also paying more so I suppose you can make an argument that it's more affordable if you want all of the add-ons like full self driving and otherwise uh but my question is and and I think investors will begin to question this as well are we actually going to get a new model in 2025 uh mostly because a more affordable model is something that's seen as potentially Reviving sales growth at Tesla that is rather than having to wait for the Cyber cab we could have maybe a 2-year period where we could actually get back to that 30% growth now notice two earnings reports ago Elon Musk told us hey um we should be growing at 30% in 2025 in the last earnings report they downgraded that to we should return to growth in 20 25 H now I'm simply stating facts here that Elon Musk has also made it clear that a $25,000 nonfully self-driving car non full self-driving car non fully self anyway non robotaxi $225,000 vehicle would not make sense well that's probably on one hand because Elon Musk has the mentality that we will not uh keep making Legacy Autos we will keep going Make It or Break It with full self-driving or and potentially their Break Even cost on manufacturing a car is $35,000 so of course they're not going to make a $25,000 car when they're breaking even at$ 35,000 now In fairness that's the break even for the average of their vehicles right now so yes if you had a lower cost vehicle maybe they could get the break even down to 29 or $30,000 for that model but they they wouldn't have a profit at that point and it just doesn't make sense if they break even 35 now you'd have to cut a lot I mean divide that for a moment if your break even on a car right now is 35 and your break even on a 20 you know on a lower let's say your break even was 25 and you sold it for zero as Elon had alluded to in the past you'd still have to figure out how to get the cost down 29% turn it into a two door it doesn't sell as well in the United States because people want the flexibility two doors just usually don't don't do that well unless it's a roadster you can go lower battery but people have enough range anxiety as is I've been a big fan of lower battery but you can just put lower battery models in in uh in model 3 and Y versions but frankly I think one of the reasons they're not doing that because I've been pounding the table on this for years that golly sell a you know sell a a $25,000 car with with 100 miles of range and let that be somebody's secondary car but I I actually have come to the realization that there are two reasons they don't do that one they want the margins on the batteries you know they they'll sell you a ,000 battery for6 or $7,000 basically that's where the margins are the margins are in the batteries and as lithium prices keep plummeting and the cost of batteries in China keeps plummeting it's more desirable to pick up your margin on selling you batteries though even battery margins are getting whacked you know you look at uh specifically the energy sector which is mostly batteries for Tesla yes some solar as well and inverters but it's mostly batteries Mega packs and and home battery packs their Marin margins on energy have actually interestingly declined you know you've gone from an average of around 30% margin uh you know gross margin down to about 24.6% gross margin so you're seeing weakness there as well which is weird but anyway going back to the $25,000 vehicle and sort of this more affordable model the more we keep seeing these variants I think the more the stock market might be waking up to say all right doesn't look like we're going to get a new more affordable vehicle this year other than you know variants of EX models now I could be surprised you know I don't think it's going to happen but maybe they'll be uh you know come to our April 15th event where we announce a new product great that would be wonderful and and it would be a a big upside for the stock like I you'd want to buy Co YOLO calls that day you know because people go oh my gosh this this new model whether it does or doesn't doesn't matter it's just what people's expectations are oh my gosh this new model is going to sell uh and it's going to bring you know so much it's it's going to bring Tesla back to growth uh we're going to grow at 30 40% compounded again we don't have that right now with the existing lineup now the good news is the existing lineup isn't like Panic selling in terms of inventory uh you are getting you know some more promotions in China like Insurance buy downs and promotions uh again you're getting Insider selling which is adding weight the downside weight to the stock uh and I'm not seeing any panic in used vehicle inventory uh or sorry even new used uh sorry new jeez let me give give my words straight you're not seeing panic in inventory usually when you look at new vehicles on the inventory page within 200 miles of where you are and you're seeing large discounts that's when they're really trying to get a clearing event done you you're having a hard time actually finding some of those right now uh which which is a good sign uh but it could also mean that we're just producing a similar amount to what we're selling and it doesn't necessarily mean we're growing right so there are some issues here uh but again no panck inventory right now which suggests that at least in the near term there doesn't appear to be uh a a an over production doesn't necessarily mean sales numbers are going to be great I mean we see what's going on with Europe registrations in January in Germany and France and Spain and the United Kingdom all these countries are down 30 to 50% for Teslas now it's a drop in the bucket for Tesla Global sales because you know most of their vehicles are sold in the United States followed by China uh although byd did just take over Tesla on pure electric vehicles but whatever uh there Tesla sells most of their cars outside of Europe so maybe that matters less although he's a little bit of a bummer because there is a gigafactory called Giga Berlin that is ideally trying to sell vehicles in the European market because you pay less to transport you know ship them somewhere but whatever so I I I don't see uh panic in inventory but I do see some disappointment in potentially okay yeah maybe the new model you know new models are just not going to be a brand new model I I think disappointment there is putting weight on the stock down Insider selling pushing weight on the stock down now there's more though but before we get to the more part I I want to mention that there is a risk also keep this in mind there is a risk that uh people who look at a car like the seven seat model y say why would I buy the model X as a 7even seat if I can get the model y as a 7even seat and you cannibalize a little bit of those higher margin sales from the X's now I want to be clear this is just I guess I'm allowed to say this because it's not a financial thing this isn't personalized Financial advice this is just like advice as a friend do not buy a seven seat Tesla please don't do it I bought a s seat model X and I regret it I wish I bought the six seat with the captain's chairs so nice six functional seven not do also know though your trunk space when you get that third row goes to like nothing to the to the point where in 2018 we went to a Dodgers game and we used the seven seat model X the poor people in the back were sitting in there like with with their knees up like this uh and well one person was because they're a little taller and the other person had their knees sort of at an angle up but they also had to have this uh beer cooler uh on their lap because we couldn't fit it on the in the trunk anymore because the trunk space you know was was so narrow I mean so you also can't fit a stroller right so it it's not these aren't really like functional large family cars I wish they would introduce a new model and and I'm a big fan of Teslas I still maintain the model Y is the best bang for your buck it's it's a great vehicle the three is great as well I don't think the difference between the S and the three is really worth it but anyway you know the the extra horsepower that's really where a lot of the margin comes from for Tesla I mean good for Tesla if you want to support the stock but I don't know how much one car buy is going to make a difference relative to your pocketbook that's said we need to talk about open Ai and could this open AI Panic or or situation between you know Elon Musk Sam Alman off or is this a game of 4D chess or is this actually potentially something worse we've got to talk about that and we're going to uh but first i'm incorporating a message message from our sponsor helium and now a message from our sponsor helium there's a link in the description down below and you should use a code Kevin when you check out or lock in your spot now first a personal message on this I'm so excited to partnered with helium because I actually have four phone numbers on my phone sometimes the primary phone number I have doesn't have service and I want to be able to quickly switch to another to make sure I'm always connected I'm a YouTuber after all these days with eim it's actually really easy to add a new phone number so they've got a few options for you and you know I love good deals so here's a good one there's an option where right now you could get a helium phone plan for $0 so you really don't get hurt trying it out the way helium is offering you a0 plan is if you provide your anonymized location you can actually help the helium mobile network and in exchange you get this free 0 plan in addition to giving you this free plan with 3 gabt of data and 100 minutes of calls and 300 texts at no cost will also give you options at low costs for larger plans such as $15 a month for a 10 GB plan or $30 a month for an unlimited plan compare that to your current bill and maybe helium mobile is actually a great option for you as your primary which is fantastic but another thing is you could actually get rewards that you could redeem for gift cards and other benefits such as Airbnb Uber door Dash Nike stores you name it just by using their service so compare what's right for you the free option or the 15 or $30 version uh either way I recommend everybody have at least a carrier like a helium on your phone at bare minimum you need a phone number but also consider a second option if you already have a primary and you don't want to switch you don't want to Port your number over consider helium as a really good backup for you in the event you want that second line and it doesn't cost you anything so try it out and who knows maybe you'll love it so much they become your primary and you start saving money so what you want to do is go to the link down below you can join the wait list for the free option use code Kevin to lock in your spot and start saving some real money but also consider signing up for that $15 or $30 per month option if you want to get started right away and get that helium Mobile account rolling all right so open aai Elon Musk has made an offer to buy the uh nonprofit parent company that owns the assets for open AI quick primer on this you have entity a nonprofit entity B for-profit entity a has the assets entity B is the for-profit corporation that Sam Alman wants to buy open AI with Sam Alman wants to buy the nonprofit out and the assets at the nonprofit for as little as possible that way he could take it over at the for-profit side take a 7% stake and be a 21 billionaire all right Elon Musk hates Sam Alman they're in lawsuits together they had a breakup in 2018 they started open AI together but had a breakup um and uh Elon Musk is trying to make it harder for Sam Alman to buy the assets from that nonprofit by raising the bid on that nonprofit now the director of the board of the nonprofit just came out and said you know I haven't I haven't gotten an offer I haven't seen anything other than what I've seen in the media about Elon Musk trying to make an offer to buy us whatever there's going to be all this bull crap you know I just tired of all like the drama and all this kind of stuff I just want to give it to you straight all right there are three obviously you know Sam Alman rejected the offer but I'm going to give you why this is happening uh Elon Musk offered 97.4 billion Sam Alman responded with 9.7 billion Elon mus called him a swindler whatever this is all just like Twitter drama that's distracting it doesn't matter so there are really a few ways to look at this three options I call it number one Elon Musk hates Sam Alman so much and does not want Sam ultman to be in charge of advanced artificial intelligence or the funds that potentially come with owning 7% s a nonprofit that would give him an opportunity to have control in advanced AI even somewhere else and that Elon is doing this for Humanity because he's trying to protect Humanity from the dangers of Sam Alman that is option number one option number two Elon is just a bitter child uh who is upset that chat GPT is a better product than grock I'm just saying these as options I'm not saying that's my opinion so please don't get mad at me you might think that grock is a lot better I'm just saying okay these are just options here okay so one is Elon just hates the guy and and is doing this for Humanity uh number two Elon is bitter that ulate has a better product and Elon actually wants the better product so Elon can have control of the better product Wall Street Journal reports that if Elon got control of open AI he would merge it with xai which then makes you wonder like bro you just bought like 100,000 h100 Nvidia chips to compete with open AI why do you need to buy them if your product is better option number three maybe Elon Musk wants the $500 billion Stargate investment over the next 5 years and this is just a backd door way for him to raise some more money which then leads back to Tesla stock where people go crap if Elon needs money to raise as part of his Consortium is there a risk that he's potentially going to sell Tesla stock again remember he told us after he dumped the stock 24 25 billion do worth in 2022 which is terrible led to you know solid decline in the stock valuation for a while there constant selling uh you know he promised he wouldn't sell in 2023 that he might sell in 2024 he didn't so far he hasn't sold in 2025 So In fairness he's he's you know beat expectations there possibly because uh X is maybe now ebit profitable which is fantastic it's a wonderful thing I mean congratulations to X they've really carved it out over there and they've really designed the algorithm to be quite addicting I have actually had to uninstall X from my phone uh because it it just like it's turned into this like uh Tik Tok Instagram phenomenon where you can just kind of scroll forever except you justify it as oh well you know I occasionally see something news related so I could justify it as as I'm not wasting my time like on Instagram or or uh Tik Tok but the flip side is Instagram or Tik Tok make you laugh every so often Twitter X just makes you depressed it's a cesspool of negativity and I think it's really bad for people's mental health so for me you know I'll just speak for myself here I have had to uninstall it I'll still go on it occasionally on the internet but I am preferring what I what I I talked to course members about this yesterday and we've got a new schedule coming out tomorrow which would be really cool but um I have notifications on now on my phone uh for Discord so like I can I can look at my phone uh and uh I could look at my uh what's it called you you sort of scroll down and you get the summary notifications uh come on summary notifications there we go summary notifications uh and and I could see uh your comments right here uh yeah I've got a bunch of them just in the last hour here I've got like six or seven of them uh oh I got to turn off reacted emojis though uh because then that way I I I don't get all the Emoji reactions but I can actually see what you're saying but uh anyway I'm going through this as opposed to my Twitter so like you're becoming the course members are now my new Twitter and it's great because I love seeing your comments and I think you're all level-headed reasonable people even those of you who aren't course members I think if you watch this channel you watch it because you're looking for a reasoned perspective I don't think I'm I'm ever going to be I I just can't do it you know Allin YOLO one-sided it's just not me so um this this this drama about open AI though is putting some unfortunately negative weight on Tesla I believe because it does send that potential signal of that would Elon maybe have to sell any stock right so now you've got uh the downside of the model uh you know new model release you've got uh Insider selling and you've got the open AI pressure so those are three problems already what's a fourth problem well fourth problem is full self-driving Tesla stock has basically been priced in such a way with valuation that's quite High We we'll pull the new valuation right now but it it's been priced in such a way that they're going to be the only company that has full self-driving cars and we know with a fact that that is already untrue because and I'm not pitching weo here but I'm just saying weo is already a full self-driving vehicle that is functioning and giving people taxi rides they are already ahead of Tesla not sense now I'm not Shilling for weo because they're obviously geog gated you know geofence uh and and uh we don't have the universal full self-driving of a vision based technology that doesn't use lar so a lower cost Mass producer able welf driving robotaxi technology that you know is expected to launch as late as July August of this year in Austin and then quickly in other states blah blah blah like this is all wonderful but all of that upside came over the last you know four months in Tesla stock but now you start hearing these Partnerships with uh you know Uber uh and mobile ey uh or was it lift and mobile ey I can't remember I think it was actually lift and it was LIF and mobile ey uh about them wanting to launch Robo taxi services now all of a sudden you start looking and go oh I didn't know I have to actually price in competition here so you know mobile ey was up like 133% yesterday you know we were talking with course members about this idea of maybe you need a full self-driving portfolio or Tesla is just sort of one of the eggs in that basket and then you can incorporate other companies like the lyts and the Ubers and the Mobil eyes and and maybe even the Nvidia given that you know they do have the Nvidia Orin platform Orin and Thor platform the drive platform uh for essentially creating uh an FSD product for any manufacturer Vehicles now you know Elon has been teasing this idea of FSD licensing with other car companies but I just want to put that to bed really quickly it ain't going to happen uh first of all it's been pitched since the beginning of 2023 second of all Elon told us in an earnings call it would take about 5 years for from licensing agreement signed to in vehicle like design it integrate it test it whatever take about 5 years that's slow so uh but the problem is now with elon's politics I don't think any brand wants that Association because it's just going to come with a negative downside of an association with Elon at this point uh and oh I want to hit the valuation of Tesla too but I want to be clear elon's while I do the valuation here elon's politics unfortunately are starting to hurt more than they have in the past this idea of just supporting Trump was one thing okay you donated to Trump fine a lot of people donated to Trump that doesn't you know if you're a Democrat that doesn't make you that shouldn't make you think of that person as a bad person it's like okay they had a preference and they supported their candidate that's fine but now what you have is an active role inside of an Administration as an unpaid employee of the administration and usually your Peak popularity as a president is the day you're elected and it's straight down from there so there's really like you just can't make everyone happy in politics no matter how Noble of a cause you're doing like cutting fraud and waste big everybody should be a big fan of that I'm not saying everything deserves to be cut like research funding at institutions uh like like colleges or whatever and there there are debates about what should be kept and not you know I I personally have some concerns concerns about the gutting of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau mostly because my entire career was founded on quality real estate loans ability to repay truth and lending the good faith estimate like I went through all of that right that transition after 2008 and so like it gives me uh like kind of shakes me to the core a little bit that we could potentially go back to lending like we saw in 2008 uh well leading up to 2008 I don't I I haven't put my full thoughts together on all that yet but that's honestly a topic for a real estate video but anyway that kind of stuff is is just going to take some people and you make them not like Elon and then therefore they just won't buy Teslas uh be worse than it's ever been in the past Tesla right now is trading for a 115 PE ratio we're expecting EPS to grow at a clip of 23 expecting it to grow at 139% over the next um four years on average or in total divided by four puts you at about a 35 on a PE Ratio or um uh earnings growth ratio and if I divide the PE Ratio 115 by earnings growth at 35 trading at a 3.2 Peg it's less Rich than it was in the 400s great but it's still not where I love it I love it at a 1.6 okay so uh we could reverse this right if I go 1.67 * 35 Time end of the year EPS 291 this is my reverse valuation math 170 buy it up baby buy it up I'm not saying we're going there can we go there of course am I shorting the stock now um it could it could go up 20% tomorrow on Elon announcing a new product you know it was just saying like where the valuation at current earnings is delicious to me is like 170 now could I be convinced to say because of FSD and robots that we could go for a 2.67 Peg and I'd be willing to pay a 271 yeah sure in fact I think if you get down to the 295 line there's a case for buying it there's a case for nibbling it right like I I've made this my thesis is I I'll go like this is not personalized Financial advice generic thesis at 330 you buy three or 4% at 295 you go to five or 6% at 240 you go to 78% at uh you know 170 you're like 12% you see what I mean so like and and honestly if you get down to like you know 100 that's when you want to be like you know 15% unless the company's going bankrupt which I don't think it will be uh that's when you want to that's probably that would be the definition of like the rock bottom of Elon is priced in and and you know that's where you just you really just max your like your allocation to it in in a reasonable and Safe Way my take because then you're below the 167 right then you start trading like end phase uh which you know they're trading for under a onepeg that whenever rates come down will do very very well uh we don't know when that's going to be you know Tesla would also benefit by the way from rates coming down but so far unless Donald Trump's you know Cuts create a recession which they H you know you're not going to get a rapid reduction in in rates here anytime soon that's also a topic for a different video but you know remember the government makes up like 40% of GDP so even though it might seem like entertaining to say oh look at all these things that are getting cut all those things that are in Cut think of them like negative stimulus checks remember what stimulus did to the economy so now think negative stimulus checks uh yeah so uh in case you're wondering why Tesla stock is falling there you go if you like this uh make sure to share the video subscribe to the channel I appreciate y'all being here check out the sponsor in the description and we'll see you in the next one goodbye everyone
Comments 0