원문 보기
what do you think of hedge funds today well I think that you know I made a bet and famous bet that carol has been keeping track of where I'm betting the hedge a large group has funds I mean funds of funds will underperform the S&P over time I mean we've got a million dollar bet for charity actually out and it's something called long bets but calling yourself a hedge fund does not make and gives you no special way to make money and the fees associated with that are very very high and III do not think the results of hedge funds in aggregate will be better than the S&P versification is a protection against ignorance that's not and there's nothing wrong with that I mean at all I mean if you don't follow companies and businesses and you want to invest in the American economy it makes a lot of sense to buy an index fund it makes the most sense because you don't know that much about specific companies but you do know that America is going to be way ahead economically ten and twenty and thirty years from now and that's a way to have own a slice of it you know it's in how do you feel about America five years Tom here's I mean I know there's some of these unprecedented challenges I get maybe every generation in some way shape or form feels like they're having unprecedented challenges but there's nothing yeah several war I just imagine that an April of 1942 we were losing the war of that time I mean that was four or five months after the war broke out and the Dow was at 100 you know the dollars of whatever it is now 17,000 I mean all all my life I've heard people talk about how terrible things are and you know your campaign now you know make America great again America's great now has never been greater had the it's it's ridiculous and think about the stock market in the 20th century we had two world wars a Great Depression God knows how many recessions flu epidemics atomic bomb you name it the Dow Jones average went from 66 to 11,400 you know the stock market doesn't wonderfully over time because American business does wonderfully over time and it's it's gallops and one person's lifetime I mean I'm 85 in one person's lifetime real GDP per capita in the United States is going up six for one I just imagine if you told my my dad in the waiting room you know that your kid is going to see a six for one increase in the average GDP I mean he thought the country had already gone pretty far they discovered the auto and the airplane and few things they thought there was nothing left to discover at that time you know we found it all right and that's the way people always seem to feel but this country there's never been anything like and there ever will be and and and we're gonna look back 50 years from now or hundred years from now and think this was the dark ages what makes you most optimistic for the next decade about America I mean just imagine you know 1789 just go back just a few hundred years there wasn't anything here yeah I mean in this country and this country has all come about in a few hundred years we had less than four million people you know when we became a country China had 300 million people at that time Europe had about 75 million they were just as smart as we were they worked just as far as we did they had natural resources that were similar to ours and yet we ended up with a quarter of the world GDP you know a few hundred years later that it's because we have a system and unleashes human potential in our own company you've got Tony nicely at Geico trying to figure out how to how to serve customers better tomorrow how to bring down cost you've got Matt Rose trying to plan for the future of railroads and Fort Worth today tomorrow you've got people at Apple trying to come up with new products that you and I have thought of yet American American capitalism is dynamic so anytime you look at it on a static basis you can get very pessimistic and why I got out of school in 1951 the two people I revered most in the world my dad and Ben Graham told me it was a bad time to start in business you know yet there's you can sit down at the start of every year and write down ten or twenty reasons why you know things are terrible but the truth is this economy works wonderfully it's working wonderfully now I mean it isn't working for everybody at this moment and it's coming back from a terrible shock that it received in the fall of 2008 but look how far it's come back and it's and it continues to come back every day it's been doing it now since since the fall of 2009 so it's you know it is there's a terrible mistake to get pessimistic on America you know it has not works in 1776 and it's not going to start working now and let me point out one other thing we talked about 2% of your gains down at everybody so that's terrible you know and it's not our potential and everything the population is probably going to get rode a little less than one percent a year so if you have two percent real gains that means in a generation in 20 years you will have greater than a 20 percent per capita gain in real GDP now real GDP is about fifty four thousand dollars per person in the United States if you get a 20 percent real gain per capita that's ten thousand dollars per person more a per capita income in the United States and one generation that's fantastic I mean it it may not be as good as we did in some of the decades after World War two but if you go back in history centuries went by without without getting anything like that yeah and 20 percent gain how would you like to have that distributed somehow evenly across the population you be rid of all poverty and everything else so even at our present rates of gain this country is turning out more and more stuff per capita year by year and it will continue to do so clarify one thing in that I really something about what is a capita super cab is that per household for personal per person Berbers how come they don't say per person they just say capita it's a set up Business School where I've always known I'm serious so one of these things I've always wanted I probably won't go to sleep tonight worrying about that actually what you're like what Warren Buffett figure out ask you that question you know you stay up tonight worry about about other thing okay
Comments 0