저자: 미상 · 외국인
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버핏 강의 요약: 결론은 단기 시장 변동에 휘둘리지 말고 기업의 장기 가치에 집중하라는 것. 미스터 마켓 비유: 벤저민 그레이엄의 개념으로, 시장은 매일 가격을 제시하는 변덕스러운 동업자이며 투자자는 그 가격을 무시하거나 이용할 수 있다. 변동성: 변동성은 장기 투자자에게 친구이며, 가격 하락을 두려워하거나 상승에 쫓아 사는 것이 문제다. 기업의 가치(X)를 꾸준히 판단하면 변동성이 큰 수익 기회가 된다. 버크셔는 시장 변동이 클수록 유리하다고 본다. 도박성과 비활동성: 사람들은 시장을 도박처럼 대하며 잦은 매매를 한다. 월가는 거래 활동으로 수익을 내지만 투자자는 비활동으로 수익을 낸다. 잦은 거래는 중개인에게만 이익이다. 군중 심리: '다른 사람도 하니까'라는 이유로 행동하면 안 되며, 버블 때 이웃이 돈을 번다고 따라하는 것을 경계해야 한다. 2008~2009년: 공포 속에서 국채 금리가 마이너스까지 갔을 때가 기회였다. 골드만삭스 투자 당시 시장 바닥을 맞추려 하지 않고 사업 자체의 가치를 보고 판단했다. 단기 시장 예측은 불가능하며 5~10년 관점이 중요하다. 출연자 견해: 시장 단기 방향에 대한 예측은 하지 않는다. 장기적으로 생산성 있는 자산(기업)을 보유할 것을 강조한다. 이 강의에서 특정 종목의 가격 방향이나 목표가에 대한 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
my old boss Ben Graham talked about having a partner named mr. market and mr. market you know it when you own a stock mr. market comes around every day let's say it's let's say it's General Motors and he named you a price at which you could either buy more from him or he can sell to him now imagine having a McDonald's sand and you you got a one partner and that partner comes around it's some day they're building a Burger King across or a Kentucky Fried then he gets custom mystic so he names a low price because he's afraid you're gonna sell them so you buy from him and other days he comes around there's a big long line of cars in the drive-in the other guy shut down across the street so he thinks he better name a high price because you otherwise you might buy from him so you get this very erratic partner who gives you a price every day which you can ignore if you wish but if he does says something silly you take advantage of them now what kind of a partner do you want then you want some psychotic drunk yeah you want some guy no signers all over the place you know I guess all of those and all the press yeah but you never forget that you're buying the business and he is the guy that's wandering around in a crazy way well volatility is the friend of the I love voluntary if no stock ever moved around very much there'd be impossible make any real money volatility is your friend you can turn it into your enemy I mean if you get worried when your stocks go down are you or you feel like you ought to rush in and buy things because they've gone up volatility is your enemy but if volatility means that a very good company someday will on some day we'll sell it X and some time later and we'll sell the two thirds of X and another dime it will sell about one and a half times X you will get very rich if you could just keep figuring out what X is and volatility is is what will enable you to make a lot of money so anytime people get upset about volatility they they don't really understand the nature of markets and how they should be thinking about them the more bottle in the market the more money we'll make at Berkshire buttstocks you put your finger on it because they're so liquid people think they have to make a decision every day because they can't make a decision and it's crazy also there's a propensity of people to gamble yeah I mean when I was 21 I went on my honeymoon my wife was 19 we went through Las Vegas and we it was 1952 and we stopped at the Flamingo which was then kind of a motel like structure and I went in and I saw all these well-dressed people who would most of whom had come a thousand miles or so and they've come to do stupid things and I looked around I thought boy am I gonna get rich I mean imagine going a thousand miles to to throw a bunch of dice where you know you're gonna lose money over time if you keep doing it and the thrill that it's and those people are making decisions in the stock market and they set prices and all you have to do is every now and then look at one and say wait that doesn't make any sense in terms of where it's selling I mean people were paralyzed at the end of 2008 I mean they were just plain scared Treasury bills went to a negative yield imagine that I mean you you could put the money under the mattress and get a higher yield and you got our treasurer go well that's going on you got to be out there with a great big tub when it's raining gold you do not want to be out with a teaspoon yeah you want to be out there so I'm never gonna forget that last five seconds for the record in my mind already I can tell other people would look out and say well the stock hasn't done anything for a couple years well who cares whether stocks not anything for a couple years I mean I don't care I don't whether why Farm has done anything for a couple years I know what it can produce so you got to look at it as a productive asset and not as something that Wiggles around on a PC do you get a feeling like when when 2008 or other times where the market just been irrationally sold off is this a is this a golden gut feeling or is it just you know is it all of a sudden you look at a bunch of numbers in a click how does how do you come to the farmers saying that that day that you call whatever raining gold how do you know it's a raining gold day well you don't know that it won't rain more gold than actually I was early okay the market hit bottom in March of 2009 and I invested a lot of money so you never know what the market is going to do I haven't the faintest idea what the market is gonna do next week or next month and I don't think about it I don't know what farm prices are gonna do next month you know I mean I just you've got to focus on where it's likely to be in five years or ten years and and you you can't predict market fluctuations and if you think you can you know you get in trouble so I don't that day in September when Goldman Sachs called me and they said we need five billion dollars I might have been able to drive a much better deal the next day or the next week or next month I just looked at the deal that was being offered to me and I said this makes sense and I don't worry about the fact I could have made a better deal yeah a week later you need to be able to look at the facts about a business about an industry and evaluate a business unaffected by what other people think and that is very difficult for most people I mean most people have a sometimes a herd mentality which can under certain circumstances develop into a delusion into delusionary behavior I mean you saw that in the internet craze and so on so if I ever write a book it's going to be cold why smart people do dumb things my partner says that it should be autobiographical but I but so what you're looking for is some way to get one good idea a year you know and then and then write it to its full potential and that's very hard to do in an environment where people are shouting prices back and forth every five minutes and shoving reports under your nose and all that Wall Street makes its money on activity you make your money on inactivity you know I mean if everybody in this room trades their portfolio around every day with every other person you know you're all going to end up broke and and and and the intermediary is going to end up with all the money on the other end if you're all owned stock in a in a group of average businesses and just sit here for the next 50 years you'll end up with a fair amount of money and your broker will be broke so his act his activity is he's like a doctor who gets paid on how often he gets you to change pills I mean basically I mean he gives you one pill and it cures you the rest of your life and he's got one sale one transaction and and that's it but if he can convince you that changing pills every day is the way the great health it'll be great for him in the prescription us and and you'll be out a lot of money and you'll be any healthier yeah a lot worse off than Ashley so you want to stay away from any and that stimulates activity and Wall Street would have the effective of doing that that don't do anything in life where if somebody asks you the reason why you're doing it the answer is everybody else is doing it I mean if you just cancel that as a rationale for doing any activity in life you'll live a better life whether it's at the stock market or or anyplace else I've seen more dumb things and sometimes even you know illegal things but justified on the basis of everybody else is doing it and you don't need to do what everybody else is doing it it's it's maddening during the internet cries for praise you know when the bubble was going on and here's your neighbor who's got an IQ 50 points below you you know and he's making all this easy money and your wife is telling you you know this jerk next door is making money you know and you're smarter and he isn't why aren't you making money well you have to you have to forget about all that sort of things you just have to do what works what would you understand and if you don't understand it and somebody else is doing it don't get envious or anything of the sort yeah what barmy do you get butterflies do get nervous no I'll never never never sleepless nights no no if I'm like I'm not gonna do something it caused me to stay not sleep but I know if if you're gonna have sleepless nights you shouldn't you should be investing I mean you don't know what you're doing on that stock no no I sleep like a baby
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