저자: ETFSTUDIO · 한국인
요약 보기
5월 연휴 시장 요약. 관세 이슈와 반도체·자동차 관세 불확실성, 원/달러 환율 1,487원 부근에서 달러 약세 우려와 달러코스트에버리징 권고. 에너지주 하락 및 SCHD 등 배당주 옹호. 팔란티어 실적 후 급락 언급. 2배 레버리지 SOXL 등 레버리지 ETN 상장폐지 가능성 및 대안 전환 제안. 엔비디아 실적(5/28) 예정, 브로드컴·AMD 등 반도체 추세 양호 언급. 애플·아마존 관세 영향 우려.
다듬은 글
Hello. This is an analysis of institutional stocks. It might be a bit tedious, but it suddenly occurred to me that we have a relationship that is somewhat like family—where you rejoice with me when I am happy and grieve with me when I am sad. With that thought in mind, I woke up suddenly, and although I am not sure if you had a good rest during the holidays, I have prepared a market summary for you, much like Breaking News .
Because there is also talk of ETPs, ETNs, and plaques . I have prepared some things that might be helpful to know from a common-sense perspective . I haven't summarized the market separately, but what I post on the cafe every day is the market overview, you know. The market conditions contain various factors .
It was the Golden Week holiday in May, filled with jokes amidst policy news and indicators, but it was another absurd day as issues arose such as claims that 100% tariffs could be imposed on movies, and whether not only movies but also semiconductors, automobiles, and content would all be subject to tariffs individually .
Economic indicators are coming out well, so there are continuous signals that the economy is not actually dead, and negotiations are going smoothly. The tariff issue is the most important thing, but they suddenly asked for ideas on deregulation, and it looked like they were digging a hole again . So, we are at a stage where noise continues to be heard, and even the news that the Taiwanese dollar surged was a recent development.
Looking at the market trends, the market that we were so afraid of was, as I mentioned, an opportunity that comes once or twice in ten years. The SNP, NASDAQ, and even the DAO are mostly showing signs of recovery, and if we just look at our holidays, May is right here. So, after surging, it is now in a state where it has given everything back just as we are going to work tomorrow and the market opens again .
It's a bad situation. And oh, I did n't bring the crude oil. Crude oil prices have dropped significantly. Since crude oil prices have dropped significantly, there are many related stocks, especially those in the SUD group, that are crude oil and energy stocks. I will share the news later that I was a bit shocked .
Well, gold prices have dropped like this but have surged significantly again, while bonds look a bit weak . While it feels like the overall direction of the market has been set, the fact is that the current market can change with just a single word . Now, the biggest problem is the exchange rate. The current exchange rate is 1,487 won.
And the low point was 1,284 won, but if we assume the current average price is around 1,450 won, then 1,400 won is -3%. But the problem is that it hit 1,393 won at the closing price last Friday. Next, the inverse exchange rate plummeted to as low as 1,370 won . It looks like it will plummet as soon as it opens tomorrow.
If it goes to 1,400 won, that's -3%, and if it goes down to 1,284 won, that's -12%. And if it goes down to 1,350 won... why didn't I write this? It's -7%. So, since losses can also occur due to exchange rate fluctuations, please don't worry too much. For those investing in the U.S., exchange rates are like an unavoidable challenge.
Just don't worry too much about it and continue with your dollar-cost averaging strategy. For those holding monthly, it probably won't matter much . I am doing both myself, and honestly, I’m not too worried since I’ve passed the level where I need to be concerned about it. However, if you are new here or are really worried about the exchange rate, I think you need to think it over a bit.
But there is no way. You might be thinking, "How exactly can we respond to a falling exchange rate?" but the answer is ultimately dollar-cost averaging . Please check it, and the results came out. ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ExxonMobil Conoco-Phillips were released around the end of last April, and then Chevron was released as well.
Actually, Lexan Mobil is currently missing from the top spots, but Chevron and Conoco Phillips are in first place. Chevron is in the top 5, too, you know. I hold about 4% of it, and this one also holds about 4%. However, the major energy stocks held in Shud are currently seeing their prices drop significantly .
Please take a look. Here, I have Pfizer and Chevron. Regarding the change from my original portfolio to a "super portfolio," Conoco, Phillips, Chevron, and even Schulenberger are all representative energy stocks, but the rest of the stocks are all fine. Uh, right now Verizon, Bristol Myers, and Amgen aren't bad either.
Since it's a family business anyway, it's the kind of company where there's no way the dividends will decrease. The same goes for MB. There wasn't much to worry about with the biotech companies, and Coca-Cola's performance was n't bad either; it looked like that, and tobacco is definitely going to do well.
Anyway, the fact that energy stocks are currently causing some issues in this process is one of SUD's biggest weaknesses. However, as you know, if you buy them when they are cheap, you will receive more dividends. Since it has n't gone so far as to break through the support line and skyrocket in the short term, it is worth taking a look.
And on May 3rd, Berk Hathaway's earnings announcement was released. I even broadcasted about it separately because Burke Health announced its earnings a bit early due to the news of Warren Buffett's retirement. So I thought it gave the market some time to defend, but the stock price dropped by 5% . Please take a look.
But since there aren't many overlapping stocks anyway, there was American Express, and then Palantir also announced their earnings. The results weren't bad, but because expectations were so high, the stock price actually fell significantly. And I will also explain Vertex Pharmaceutical Realty Income .
One Semiconductor's earnings were not bad either, but the stock price seemed to be falling a bit . Now, the leverage for Palantir 2x is... I hold a little bit too; it was something like 70-something percent, but it has gone up by 174% in just one month . I had told you never to doubt Palantir, but when it hit resistance near the previous high, the stock price eventually fell by nearly 8% .
Uh, since Palantir has a significant weighting in ETFs listed in Korea, especially in recently listed stocks, those of you holding stocks related to AI software or humanoids should n't be too shocked tomorrow. You just need to think, "Ah, times like this have to pass ." Do n't worry. However, if you are going to buy or sell based on the number one ranking with quarterly results like this, long-term investment is the answer.
Now , take a look at Real Team, too. It has risen by as much as 6% year-to-date since the beginning of the year. Typically, index-based ones are negative 3% to 5% annually. The performance isn't bad, and it also pays a dividend of 5.66. So, for the past year and a half, I have been talking about safe REIT products like Realty Income, KODEX, Korea Real Estate REITs, and Infrastructure, enduring a barrage of insults and hard work.
Recently, however, when I received a question asking if I should buy more REITs, it made me think, "Ah, at least I haven't done anything wrong ." I want to tell you that dividend stocks, especially REITs, are truly indispensable and excellent investments when it comes to retirement or asset management, but even if I say this, there will likely be people who curse at me again, asking if I am still buying REITs.
Well, it can't be helped. Tesla is at the 200-something level here right now, isn't it? I keep facing resistance here, around level 200, level 90, and level 300. Similarly, TSLLL, which invests twice the amount of Tesla, is also currently facing continuous resistance . So, as mentioned above, the resistance level is actually acting as the tool right now .
If even this support line, which has been held so well, collapses, technically speaking, what about the robot taxi in June, or within the year, what is that? It's Optimus, right? I have a feeling that news about Optimus's robot factory starting operations could become an intangible reality . I think how the support and resistance levels move is also a key point worth watching .
And there was another significant issue regarding abolition . Right now, there are three types: bread bread A, then bread bread B, and then a flathead . You probably know this . You know that bread-making business from way back in the day . Like the D-class, before Magnificent VII, there was something like bread or something; it was Facebook, Amazon, what's it called, Apple, then Nvidia, and Google, and it was a 3x leveraged stock.
This has been awarded. But looking at it now, Bread A has been trophied again. I changed the name after this became a trophy. From the hole with bread A. But the plaque is scheduled for May 15th . It was disclosed in March. However, these bastards listed it on February 20th before the official announcement .
Bread B. So they are crazy guys. But the problem is that it's an ETN. If you look at the ETN here, is this a BOM? It is an ETN issued by a securities firm called Bank of Montreal . However, the difference between ETNs and ETFs is that, in reality, an ETN is contained within an ETP . You can think of ETP and ET as the same thing .
But this is issued by a securities firm on credit. Since they borrow money from banks to provide corporate bonds and intend to issue this using those bonds as collateral, if the market is bad, it doesn't sell, or some problem arises, they just dump it among themselves . Because I have to pay back the money .
So, as you know, credit-based ETPs, ETNs, and ETFs are based on the concept of having an underlying asset. So, since it is structured like this, possessing an underlying volcano, it has value, so even if it is delisted, it has liquidation value. Of course, ETPs and ETNs also have liquidation value, but it takes a very long time, and you never know when it will happen.
So, I think it would be better not to wait until May 15th to receive the award, but to switch to something else in advance or just switch to a different product . Sox is showing a carefree attitude. Although it has dropped a little to $14, $13, and $12, the return on investment from the 9th trade I made at the low of $7.9 is tremendous.
Anyway, it is a rebounding cold spell, and regarding the stocks included, Nvidia is scheduled to announce its earnings on May 28th. And well, although Colcom was a bit bad, AMD, and although Broadcom, Texas Instruments, Clarr Corporation, Lam Research, and Microsystems were also a bit bad, stocks like these showed decent trends, so actually, it seems that big tech stocks, especially traditional semiconductor stocks, are not currently on a bad trend.
I think one cycle has passed. I've watched it all, and I feel like a whole cycle has passed . Now, if you look at QQQ right now, it is a situation where Apple and Amazon are having some issues. The other stocks are fine, but Apple's decline is bigger than expected . It seems this is happening because they are retailers directly affected by tariffs.
Companies like Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia are also knocking on China's door for semiconductor exports. While all of these are fine, you can view the current situation as one where Apple and Amazon are causing some issues . Okay, and one more piece of good news. I have just explained Applied Materials .
I mentioned this Dutch company called Bash Semiconductor, the global No. 1 firm. Since Applied Materials' stock price hasn't been doing well recently, Bash is a company that manufactures TC bonders, which play the role of connecting GPUs and HBM semiconductors, just like Hanmi Semiconductor. And the thing is, it is the global No.
1. I mentioned a while ago that they were acquiring a stake in A-Mega because of the bash, and despite the current market turmoil, the stock price is showing a decent upward trend—this was the previous one and this is the current one. It is difficult to find accurate information like this. It is currently going up.
You can view this A short as well as the underlying index of the source . Hmm, I will wrap up after talking about the Shud one last time . So, here's Shud. Now, regarding dividend growth, it seems like the debate will go on for a lifetime. There is a lot of talk about banning Sude for people without money, banning Sude below a certain amount, or banning Sude for those who haven't played for more than 10 years, but Sude is just Sude itself in its own way.
Actually, dividends are increasing. It was giving $0.25 every 10 years, then giving it 10 years ago, giving it $1 now, and is currently progressing at a pace of $2.60 in another 10 years. When is the stock price? Even after all the commotion on April 11th and the stock price dropping like this, it is $25.80 even though the market is currently bad.
It went up. So, don't worry. The point is that amidst all this, dividends are growing and being paid out . So, for those of you collecting Shud, I think it would actually be better not to be swayed by things like this and just tell them, "Yeah, you just say that ." Of course, I could say this and sell it too, but for now, please don't get too worked up about it while you are in the process of accumulating it .
Your own judgment is the most accurate and leaves you with the least regrets. Even I try to speak based on my own judgment and evidence, so I hope you will take it into consideration. With dividends growing like this, would n't they have gone up like this in 10 years? Well, I hope it turns out like this.
Anyway, I tried making a sound. I tried my best to prepare so that the market trends during the holidays could be seen at a glance, but well, we’ll have to wait and see tomorrow . I don't know what will happen tonight either . So, please try to minimize travel fatigue as much as possible, and let's do our best next week. Thank you.
Comments 0