Ray Dalio: Bearish On Bitcoin, But Still Buys

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레이 달리오가 비트코인을 소액 보유하고 있으나 장기적으로 정부가 성공한 비트코인을 금지할 것으로 본다는 주장. 달리오는 비트코인을 금·현금 대체 자산으로 분산투자 관점에서 소량 보유하며, 비트코인이 성공할수록 정부가 규제·금지할 것이라고 발언. 진행자는 비트코인이 본질가치(intrinsic value)가 없어 큰 가격 변동성을 가진다고 설명하며 자산 배분에서 이런 자산 비중을 경계해야 한다고 강조. 비트코인 시가총액은 약 1조 달러, 전체 금 시장은 중앙은행·보석 제외 약 5조 달러로 언급되며, 비트코인이 성공해도 금 규모를 크게 넘기 어렵다는 달리오의 견해 소개. 진행자는 정부가 통화 통제력을 위협받으면 비트코인을 규제할 가능성은 있으나, 현재 암호화폐는 통화보다 금융자산으로 인식되고 있어 가까운 시일 내 그런 상황은 가능성이 낮다고 평가. 영상 후반부는 Sharesight 포트폴리오 추적 서비스 광고로 대부분 구성됨.

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01. well you thought that i was done talking about ray dalio no way because interestingly while most of his interviews at the moment talk about macroeconomics and investing in china and so on i was very surprised to hear him bring up the fact that he has bought into bitcoin yes ray dalio of bridgewater associates buys bitcoin i didn't think i'd see that but it actually it gets a little bit weirder the crazier thing about this story is that he's still bearish on bitcoin he holds the opinion that if bitcoin is successful enough it will be banned by major governments so in this video i want to try and get to the bottom of how ray dalio got in this position being bearish on bitcoin and also buying it so lots to unpack here so let's get started this video is brought to you by sharesight seek of tracking your performance manually track capital gains dividends and currency fluctuations easily and when it comes to tax time have everything you need ready to go with just a click of a button try sharesight for free or use the referral link in the description to get four months free when you sign up to an annual plan so bitcoin hey no secret it's been a volatile asset class over the past few years but it's also gained tremendous popularity which as is normally the case for assets without intrinsic value has led to large price increases so more eyes on it more discussion more development but no intrinsic value to ground it means more people buy it at the market price and the price rises quite substantially now to be honest this fundamental issue of bitcoin having no intrinsic value you know in in much the same way that baseball cards or gold also have practically no intrinsic value this has led most big name investors to simply sidestep the bitcoin phase but ray dalio has decided to dive in so it was in a recent cnbc interview that i first learned that ray dalio had bought bitcoin so i thought i'd play you that clip then we can start to break down why he made this decision i i mentioned briefly the idea of crypto and i know you've had different views of this a lot of people think of that as a a new investment class that has had enormous run thus far but also as a way to mitigate if you will against the idea of what the value of cash becomes well i think it's worth considering all the uh the alternatives to cash and all the alternatives to some of the financial assets uh and so bitcoin has um has that is a possibility is that america i have a certain amount of money in bitcoin it's a small percentage of that which i have in gold which is a relatively small percentage of what i have in my other asset classes and so on and i think that that has the merit it's it's an it's an amazing accomplishment to have brought it from where that programming occurred to where it is and take the test of time on the other hand it's if if it's successful it's going to not be the governments don't want to have it successful you don't want to have it we're starting to see governments like el salvador i know that's not exactly uh going to be the leading government on this but there are there are governments that may take this on but no no no no no um the you have el salvador taking on and you have india and china getting rid of it and you have the united states talking about how to regulate it and it could still be controlled so that's right what it looks like if you're el salvador and you talk about your alternative monies you know it's a different thing do you believe that regulation ultimately will make something like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have a future or do you think regulation will kill it well i think regulation i think at the end of the day if it's really successful they'll kill it and they'll try to kill it and i think they will kill it because they have ways of killing it but that doesn't mean it doesn't have um you know a place of value and so on so the way dalia approaches bitcoin is definitely from a diversification standpoint he treats it as one of the alternatives to cash kind of like gold so in actual fact he's not really investing in it at all he just hates being caught you know holding cash so he spreads his cash money across cash alternatives and as he says in that clip there his bitcoin holdings are a small percentage of what he holds in gold which is a small percentage of what he holds in other asset classes like equities so he's not really making a bet on bitcoin he's simply including it in the diversification strategy of his funds and then we get to the really interesting bit where he actually speaks his mind where he says he believes that if bitcoin is successful enough it will quite simply be banned by governments and i've covered ray dalio's line of thinking here before and honestly i got a lot of backlash from people saying you know you don't know you know bitcoin is decentralized it's independent of any government etc they can't regulate it and so on and you know i get that argument i don't i don't think bitcoin is going away and all honesty i wouldn't even be surprised if it continues to hold such a high price but think about it like this governments like to control their currency it's very helpful for them to be in control so there's this third-party currency that all of a sudden starts to threaten their own currency and thus their control then of course the government will obviously take action on that um do i think that it will get to this point though probably not in all honesty the one thing that cryptocurrency has failed to do so far is take off as a form of currency at the moment it's almost entirely seen as a financial asset you know same as gold you know you could use gold as a currency it has been used as currency in the past but people don't view it that way today we just treat gold as a financial asset but having said that i do think it would be foolish to dismiss the idea that governments will act to eradicate it if it poses any sort of threat to their control now let's head back to ray and this time he's discussing a major characteristic and risk of bitcoin that you definitely need to be comfortable with if you decide to invest in it but it's one of those things that it has right now it doesn't have intrinsic value if you look if you put crypto currencies or let's say bitcoin in the historical perspective right right there are so many things in a historical perspective that were given intrinsic that didn't have intrinsic value and we have perceived value and then became hot and then they become cold and so it could be either way you just have to know what it is right yep i mean like you know it could be a tulips in um in holland you know and intrinsic value so what is the value and then there are technological changes i don't i'm no expert on that i'm just trying to say that you asked me what my opinion is take it for what it's worth i'm no expert on it i think it i think diversification values it matters i suspect the real question that investors should be asking themselves is how much stuff like that do they have do how much stuff do they have do they have gold okay should we be talking about how much you have in gold versus how much you have in bitcoin and do you have a diversification in those kinds of things that we might call intrinsic value money because we have a fiat monetary system okay with a fiat monetary system where is your hard money that's the question and i however you go after it i think that's the question to be answered so there you go ray highlights the importance of knowing what you own you know a lot of people that have gotten into the markets over the last year or two have gotten into bitcoin thinking that you know this is very valuable they see a headline wow bitcoin is worth potentially a hundred thousand dollars so i like that ray takes the time to explain that if you own bitcoin you have to be at peace with the fact that this is a non-productive asset and thus by definition has no intrinsic value as he says it could be tulips in holland now to be fair it could be the beginnings of a new global monetary system but the point is we don't know what it will be and there's no way to calculate what it is worth and because it lacks an intrinsic value that's why it's subject to enormous price swings now as ray says it's okay to own stuff like this in your portfolio but as he says it's important to look at what percentage of your portfolio you give to assets that lack intrinsic value you know if you own five shares in an s p 500 index fund but then you have an extensive collection of art and baseball cards and have 20 grand in gold and 10 grand in bitcoin then you're probably in a little bit of trouble uh bitcoin has an imputed value not an uh it not a intrinsic value and and so it depends what it's perceived as it's a tremendous accomplishment to have done that programming not have it hacked and to have its uh advancement at the same time and so it will have the perceived value that it is given by the marketplace uh now at the time right now if you take the value of bitcoin you take the price what should the price be and you uh since the quantity doesn't change you know what it's a function of demand right now bitcoin is worth a little less than a trillion dollars gold all gold in existence is worth if you take central banks and jewelry out of it about 5 trillion so it's about 20 of that market that represents you know the hedge market and so on i think that there i think if you if it's successful really successful um it it's not going to be a lot more than that and if it's um and also if it's successful there's a risk the government will outlaw it there you go one last clip to hammer at home you know if you play with bitcoin just remember it has perceived value rather than intrinsic value and if you understand that and instead of speculating come at it from a cash diversification standpoint then you'll largely protect yourself from its uncertainty and that's exactly what rey has done in this instance you know wise words from the founder of the world's most successful investment management firm so overall they are ray dalio's thoughts and opinions as to why he is kind of bearish on bitcoin in the long run but also holds it in his portfolios so overall guys i hope you enjoyed that video i hope it provided some clarity um if you know if you did enjoy it or if you found it useful give the video a like i really appreciate it subscribe if you'd like to see more videos similar to this uh check out profitful if you're interested in how i go about my investing check out new money clips of course if you have not done so already but guys that will just about do us for today thank you very much for watching and i'll see you all in the next video thanks again to sharesight for sponsoring this video uh so recently i finally decided to stop being lazy and i imported all of my stock portfolios across into sharesight finally i should have done that a hell 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