저자: Cory · 외국인
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2022년 6월16일 대폭락 후 자본항복(capitulation) 국면 가능성을 주장. SPY 370 이탈로 350 목표, QQQ 275 이탈 시 258~260, DIA 297 목표, IWM 156 목표, 비트코인 2만불 이탈 시 1.2만불 목표, 엔비디아 150(강하면 125) 목표, 테슬라 571 이탈 시 500 목표, 애플 130 지지선 강조. 하락추세 지속 전제, 반등은 역추세 랠리로 간주, 리스크관리 강조.
다듬은 글
saw a huge shell off across all of the indices and we could be approaching capitulation today on spy we were down 3.31 percent and we did close below that critical support zone at 370. so we are at increased risk of capitulation for that price target down there at 350. now normally when you break a resistance or support zone you do want to see follow through so we will want to get confirmation that the bears are driving spy down to 350 with tomorrow's price action i still think there's a high probability chance that we see an end-of-month rally to go all the way back up to fill these gaps above but while we're below 370 you still need to be extremely risk-off and i would suggest waiting until spy breaks back above that level before you start getting bullish if you are getting bullish at these levels remember it's okay to get bullish in the long term the lower we go and that's exactly what investors look to do accumulating as the stock market goes lower not trying to catch the bottom perfectly but as a trader you need to know exactly where your risk levels are and you always need to manage risk for example if you're just blindly loading up on call options the lower we go hoping for a bounce and we continue to see capitulation you could lose a lot of money trying to do that so always manage your risk appropriately as a disciplined trader and as an investor you always know that time is on your side and you can just continue to accumulate at prices that you see fit now we are getting very close to what could be capitulation and you can see that we are getting this huge waterfall wave of selling and we only had that dead cat bounce in between this is exactly what capitulation starts out looking like and you just continue to get red candle after red candle and eventually we will reach that bottom which i do believe will be down here at spy 350.
now do not completely rule out the possibility that this was just a bear trap so you will need to see follow through with a second day in a row closing below 370 before you get overly confident that we're going to 350. for example if we bounce strong back above 370 as early as tomorrow and then continue to close above that level it is more than likely this was a bear trap and we are not going to 350.
so wait for confirmation of breaking below this candle or a second close below 370 before you get overly confident of 350 as the price target now as a bull if we break above 370 that is always going to be a risk level for long trades and we still have strong resistance up here at 385 the gap close at 389 and our previous support trend line right around 395.
if we could break above all that resistance it's very likely we'll fill the gap at 401 but do keep in mind this is a very strong bear trend and there will be bears at every single resistance level in every single bounce you should be locking profits because there's always a possibility it's just a lower high before the next lower low the definition of downtrend until it's not is expecting prices to continue to make lower highs and lower lows until price action proves otherwise by forming higher highs and higher lows and that will be our evidence that we could be seeing a trend reversal so downtrend until it's not so respect the downtrend and get comfortable seeing lower highs and lower lows until we see some type of reversal also note the volume is picking up on red day so if we continue to see high volume selling that is significantly going to increase the probabilities that we reach capitulation now instead of later so respect this volatility with proper risk management and understand that volatility does work in both directions so you can't completely rule out the possibility we get an impulsive rally to the upside so you will want to watch that critical level above 370 to cover short positions and possibly get a little less bearish on the nasdaq 100 triple q's we were down just over 4 today and we did close below that support level at 275 and intraday we did test the next level lower at 269.5 and we did see some type of intraday bounce off that level interestingly enough on the triple q's as we have less volume than yesterday so we're not seeing that high volume panic selling just yet and a lot of the move was in the overnight gap down session so we have a lot of upside gaps and resistance so the next bullish breakout will be back over 275 to fill this gap right around 278 to 279 and if we can break back above 285 that will be bullish price action which means we could start coming all the way back up to about 295 to 299.
so while we are below 285 there's still the possibility of capitulation and capitulation on the nasdaq 100 will likely take us down to about 258 to 260. so if you see price action getting rejected from 285 once more and then you see price action heading back lower that will be extremely bearish and you should be shorting at resistance if you are a bear and that strong resistance level right now is up here at 285.
soon as we break over 285 you instantly need to get less bearish because we could be going up here to fill these gaps above which is likely going to happen by the month end if we are going to do so so be very flexible watching price action and do understand we are sitting right on top of a support trend line so if we start closing below about 268 we could see that capitulation and flush to the downside in the dow jones dia etf we were down 2.39 percent and we did gap down and close at that lower bollinger band and we're getting very close to the next price target at 297 the critical level we need to break above to start getting bullish is back over 310 and we have a long ways to go before we get back over that level so watch for what could be support or better known as a downside price target in a downtrend down here at 297 and to the upside we have a gap to fill right around 302 all the way up to about 306 with strong resistance around 308 and 310 above 310 you're looking for the gap close at 314 and above 316 you're looking for the gap closed at 323 and there will be a lot of bears at those levels and we are still in a very strong downtrend it's very clear this is close to capitulation if we continue to trend lower so look for the next bearish breakdown for capitulation on that breakdown below 297.
on the russell 2000 iwm etf we were down 4.63 and the small caps did fill the gap below which was right there at 165.7 and did close below that level well below the lower bollinger band so we are getting extremely oversold at these levels the capitulation price target is down here at 156 but you will want to watch this level right around 160 as a possible support level as well if we can break back over the previous low right around 171 look for strong resistance at 175 and if we break above 175 you're looking for the gap close right around 178 and then the next clap close right around 184 these are very strong downtrends in all of these indices so if you are taking long trades get very disciplined unlocking your profits early because this is a very strong downtrend which could be very close to capitulation on the rk etf we were down just over six percent and we did go up there and get rejected from that resistance zone at 40 and we're back down to re-testing the lows right around 37.
if we lose support at 37 we are very likely going to finally hit that price target at 33.7 and if we bounce off of this support you're looking for the bullish breakout back over 40 filling the gap at 43 breaking back over the resistance trend line and trying to break back above 47. do not get bullish until we see bullish price action because this is a very strong bear market that could still be heading much slower on the vix we were up 11.25 percent and the vix did spike off of that support level after filling the gap and the vix is right back above 30 yet again but we are seeing the vix continuing to form lower highs this is not that significant in the grand scheme of it because vix above 30 is still a very volatile market but it is something to note that if we are going to get capitulation we will need to see the vix spiking above 35 and hitting that price target at 38 or probably even into the 40s so while this does look like a very large sell-off it is likely not capitulation just yet but we could be approaching capitulation very soon if we don't start to bounce from these levels you're not really seeing bullish price action from the vix until it starts crushing all the way back down below 24 so still remain very cautious of a volatile market while the vix is this elevated on bitcoin we're currently down just over eight percent and bitcoin is well on its way to retesting that support zone at twenty thousand dollars and if we break below that the next price target is all the way down here at twelve thousand so capitulation in bitcoin which i know that's funny to say because we've already dropped so much is likely going to be on the breakdown below twenty thousand to the price target at twelve thousand if we start developing support at 20 000 we could get a spike for the bulls that takes us all the way back to retest resistance at 28 000 but you will want to wait for some type of consolidation and proof that that level is holding up as support unless you are long-term bullish and don't mind buying lower on nvidia stock we were down 5.6 percent closing well below that support zone at 161 and very close to hitting the price target at 150.
i've said this many times but i do believe when nvidia hits 150 that will likely call the bottom in this stock but if for some reason we break below that the full-blown capitulation price target will be down here at 125. we can start getting more bullish if we break above 161 but the real level to break above to start getting bullish is all the way up here at 179 and breaking above 200 so remain cautious while we're below 179 because we could still be going down to 150 and possibly even 125 so that will be a very critical level to pay attention to because while we're below 161 it's likely we're heading lower on tesla stock we were down eight and a half percent and tesla clearly rejected from resistance at 700 and is very close to re-testing our previous support down here at 620.
if we find support at 620 and close back over 775 that does look like a successful double bottom and that will be extremely bullish however if we break support at 620 look for that next leg lower at 571 and if we break down below 571 we'll very likely start trending back down towards 500 this is still a bear market and a bear trend with price action below all the moving averages and well below critical resistance so you need to be cautious while tesla is below 700 and trading below 7.75 on apple stock we were down about 4 and apple finally hit that price target down here at 130 and that is our downside price target in apple so i do not have any lower price targets at this time if apple breaks down below 130 it's likely just going through capitulation and it's anybody's guess how low you can ever go in a capitulation environment however if we bounce off 130 you're looking for us to start bouncing all the way back up to close the gap at 142.5 with the bullish breakout on the close above 146 and then 150.
so critical support will be 130 so breaking below that is extremely risk off an upside resistance levels to pay attention to will be up here at 137 140 and 142. on the financial sector we were down just over two and a half percent and we continue to close at daily lows getting very oversold in a very strong bear trend so i would be expecting to see some type of relief bounce in the near future for the financials on the industrials we were down three point three four percent and very similar story as the financials getting very overdone to the downside and likely due for a relief balance we have three gaps to fill to the upside but we are still in a very strong downtrend and this is looking a lot like capitulation just going straight down with only a dead cat bounce in between the healthcare sector was down about one and a half percent closing well below lower bollinger band and it does look very oversold so it is likely going to be due for a bounce in the short term the energy sector was down 5.63 and finally seeing that full-blown correction after a very impulsive bull rally and we did break down below the 50 ema close one of our gaps below and we're back down to the support zone right around 77.
we clearly broke below all the moving averages and our support trendline and we did lose the bull trend so it's still possible we will continue to trend lower and we still do have gaps much lower to the downside so you will want to be bearish while we are below this 50 ema right around 82. so jumping back over the s p 500 this is without a doubt a market that is very close to capitulation and while i do think this is a capitulation type price action full capitulation on spy would likely take us down to 350 and we're not quite there look for that second day in a row below 370 to confirm that we're likely going through capitulation otherwise this could have been a little bit of a bear trap before this counter trend rally going through the month end remember volatility works in both directions so you always need to use proper risk management no matter if you're shorting this market or trying to do long trades this is a downtrend until it's not so treat all bounces as counter trend rallies in a bear market that will yield lower highs before the next lower low get comfortable seeing lower highs and lower lows until we break the downtrend and we start seeing bullish price action ies to you trading you
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