저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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2024년은 비트코인 현물 ETF 승인으로 주류 편입의 전환점이 될 해라고 주장. 블랙록 현물 ETF 첫 주 약 20억 달러 유입 전망 등 ETF 흐름을 근거로 제시. BTFP 연장 여부가 은행 위기 가능성을 키우고 이는 비트코인에 우호적이라고 봄. 지정학적 긴장으로 에너지주가 2024년 최고 수익 자산 중 하나가 될 수 있다고 언급. 비트코인 '슈퍼 사이클' 가능성도 제기하며 ETF 기관 자금 유입이 4년 주기를 깰 수 있다고 봄(단, 아직 확정 아님).
다듬은 글
I think this is the most important year for Bitcoin that has ever existed we are probably days away from a series of ETFs being approved and so this is the moment for Bitcoin to to use that old term cross the chasm and really see mainstream adoption where our parents and our grandparents understand what it is can buy it and then do buy it if all of this to pass Bitcoin will be a part of the traditional Financial lexicon by the end of 2024 so that is my most anticipated trend of year the buzz around the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange traded fund is gaining traction drawing in notable figures like billionaire investor chanth pipia despite his earlier skepticism about the state of crypto in America palahia now anticipates a significant impact on bitcoin and the broader digital asset space with the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in a recent podcast episode he makes four key predictions for 2024 a pivotal year for Bitcoin marked by ETF approvals and increased institutional involvement mainstream adoption widespread acceptance even among older generations and Bitcoin becoming a commonplace term in traditional Financial discussions palahia envisions the sec's approval as a catalyst for broader adoption foreseeing a future where purchasing and holding Bitcoin becomes accessible to individuals of all ages including those less technically inclined this shift he believes could commence this week with the expected SEC approval of several SP Bitcoin ETF applications the podcast also features insights from entrepreneur and investor David saaks whose predictions though not directly tied to bitcoin are seen as potential catalysts for positive movements in crypto prices throughout 2024 Additionally the discussion touches on the much anticipated Bitcoin super cycle and black Rock's recent surprising $2 billion investment in Bitcoin please take moment to like this video subscribe to the channel and don't forget to drop your comment and observations in the comment section below thanks and enjoy the video my biggest business deal is whatever the FED decides to do to replace or extend btfp the bank term funding program um remember that the btfp which is what the FED used to bail out the regional banking system last year and was it like March or April it was only supposed to last for one year it's supposed to be a temporary program but I do not think that the balance sheets of regional banks are healthy enough to survive without this continued liquidity from this program so I think the fed's going to have to do something to either replace a program extend the program they're going to have to do something and I think that Regional banks are still in pretty bad shape with you know impaired commercial debt portfolios and they need this liquidity as long as the yield curve remains inverted so I think the FED is gonna try and somehow figure out a program to keep these guys liquid until they can de invert the yield curve and I think the fed's trying to massage all of this into place without there being a recession I'm not trading on this on these predictions so you shouldn't either my guess here just a guess is energy is energy stocks um Energy prices could be among the top performers of 2024 just because there's so much risk of conflict breaking out now and escalating so I agree with freeberg that there are huge risks of escalation in the Middle East the Ukraine war is still going on I think not enough attentions being pay to what's happening between Venezuela and Guyana uh Venezuela is basically attempting to Annex guyana's offshore oil reserves which are huge this is basically just pure theft Ethiopia also has tense relationships with a few of its neighbors and I could easily see there being a war that breaks out between Ethiopia and Egypt or Ethiopia and irraa and and then that could spill over and create further disruption in the Red Sea we also still have this unresolved issue of the hoodies and of course you have neocon bring for war with Iran as they always do John Bolton just published another piece saying that we had to go to war with Iran so there's just so many ways that the conflict could escalate and create I think a spike in the price of oil as previously mentioned we hold a strong belief that the two predictions from sex particularly the one regarding the most significant deal of 2024 and the other about the best performing asset during the year will be advantageous for Bitcoin reflecting on last March's Regional banking crisis the Federal Reserve board introduced the bank term funding program to extend collateralized loans to various financial institutions despite the one-year program approaching its end recent data from the FED reveals a record high borrowing of $41 billion from the btfp in the week through January 3rd this substantial borrowing so close to the programs deadline raises the possibility of another banking crisis which could prove detrimental to the economy but potentially beneficial for Bitcoin sax prediction concerning escalating geopolitical tensions worldwide is another positive factor for the leading cryptocurrency in times of global turmoil investors tend to seek refuge in Safe Haven assets and Bitcoin is arguably one of the safest options as promised earlier in the video we will now share clips from a recent discussion between kito's Michelle mcai and Andrew Axelrod a global macro and Bitcoin commentator Andrew strongly Advocates that this could be the much anticipated Bitcoin super cycle and the upcoming clips from the discussion will provide further insights historically Bitcoin have has a having event every four years so one of these four years is a is a is is one cycle it's one Epoch and so if yeah for people that have been in in in in Bitcoin for a while they tend to think in these terms of Cycles at some point maybe a cycle is going to break down I think that you mentioned the super cycle that's where that I think Dan held originally coined that term but what it essentially means is that a super cycle is just when the Cycles essentially break down and you start getting um you you start getting price action that seems to to to to break this pattern of it's usually again a fouryear cycle so out of those four years it's it's three years of green and one one year of red and so a super cycle would imply that and it's you know it's it's it's feasible especially with all of these new entrance coming in because this isn't just a one-time event this would be as you were saying these would be Pension funds these would be um all kind all kinds of allocators putting in a steady stream it it's a little bit a cookie cutter but essentially What's Happening Here is they now have a fixed allocation to this new asset class which they will be able to access through an ETF and then it's just a question of all right you know every quarter or so we got to rebalance and the money keeps flowing and flowing and that could sort of and and the dimensions here would you know break all of the re you know what we've seen from retail Traders up until now so that's what a super cycle would mean here which is that there's a steady stream that's pouring into absolute scarcity and that would have you know a shock on on the price and it would break this fouryear cycle it's sort of the that at least that's sort of the thinking behind a a super cycle we haven't seen it yet might not happen this time but yeah when I was when when I'm talking about cycle that that's what I'm talking about you think will'll get the super cycle then you know I thought we could have seen it last time because you started seeing companies putting it on their uh on on their balance sheets now admit it it was it was like it it was pretty much just micro strategy and maybe square but um but but yeah I think it's a definite possibility I mean as this thing becomes more acceptable you see more mainstream more institutional adoption it'll it'll become just another fixture it'll just become another the Box exercise on on these um on these investment committees the thing is there's always there's always a moment in time where it's the it's sort of the last that last price that you've seen so for example when I first got into Bitcoin you know the price was around 300 and there's no going back like you're I'm not going to see that price I'd love to see that price again I'm not going to see it again and so at some point well you'd love to see it so that you can pick it up again at 300 is I guess what you're saying exactly I would love a time machine is what I'm saying okay so you're saying though that 2024 could set up Bitcoin for a super cycle I'm saying it's a definite possibility now it's time for the most significant Revelation regarding Bitcoin ETFs in this video Black Rock the world's largest asset manager and a prominent Bitcoin ETF applicant appears to be gearing up for a groundbreaking launch Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric bchy suggests that it could surpass all previous records for first day trading volume and assets under management for any ETF in history reports indicate that black rock has secured an impressive $2 billion in capital for its imminent spot Bitcoin ETF launch during a Twitter spaces discussion hosted by the block vanex head of digital assets research Matthew seagull shared this Insight while he acknowledged that he couldn't fully vouch for the news seagull revealed that according to a well-placed source black rock is expecting over $2 billion in new incremental flows within the first week primarily from existing Bitcoin holders looking to augment their positions B reacting to the news emphasized the Monumental impact this would have for Bitcoin especially considering black Rock's historical dominance in successful ETF launches the anticipation further intensifies as Fox Business reports that black rock anticipates approval for its spot Bitcoin ETF by Wednesday January 10th coinciding with the sec's decision deadline for AR invest spot Bitcoin ETF application as we witness these bullish events unfold including predictions and significant developments the question of whether this will Mark the onset of a super cycle for Bitcoin coin and crypto arises share your thoughts and observations on these events in the comments section below
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