저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상은 주식시장 대폭락(3년 내 약 50% 하락 가능)을 경고하며, 마이클 버리 등 여러 전문가의 비관 전망을 인용하고 버블 원인 다섯 가지를 제시한다. 전문가 전망: 이코노미스트 인텔리전스 유닛은 버블 붕괴 가능성이 높다고 보고, 존 울펜버거는 2008년보다 심한 최소 60% 하락을 예상한다. 마이클 버리는 역사상 최악의 버블 붕괴를 경고했다. 월가 전략가 약 50%는 연말 S&P500이 현재 수준 아래일 것으로 본다. 뱅크오브아메리카는 -10%, 모건스탠리는 -20%, 존 허스먼은 -66%를 언급했다. 제러미 그랜섬은 2008년 또는 1929년 규모의 버블이라고 했고, 워런 버핏은 1,400억 달러 이상의 현금을 대기시켜 두었다고 언급했다. 버블 원인 1 - 신규 투자자: 로빈후드 같은 무수수료 앱으로 청년층이 주식을 카지노처럼 거래하고 있다. 테슬라는 실적 대비 과도하게 평가되었다. 버블 원인 2 - 빚투: 신용거래(마진)를 통한 투자가 시장을 과열시키고, 암호화폐는 실물 가치가 낮은 상태에서 과도하게 레버리지되어 있다고 주장한다. 버블 원인 3 - 과도한 밸류에이션: S&P500 PER은 약 29배로 장기 평균의 거의 두 배이며, 애플 약 30배, 아마존 약 60배, 테슬라 330배 이상이라고 지적한다. 버블 원인 4 - 인플레이션: 정부의 통화 발행이 자산 가격을 밀어올렸고, 금리 인상 시 폭락, 금리 동결 시 구매력 하락과 사회 불안이 발생할 수 있다고 본다. 버블 원인 5 - 기타 요인: 미중 관계 악화, 테러, 신종 변이, 사이버 공격, 사회 불안, 공급망 차질, 이상기후, 선거 분쟁 등이 폭락의 촉매가 될 수 있다. 닷컴 버블 때 49%, 2008년에 57% 하락한 사례를 언급했다. 리스크/조건: 금리 인상, 규제 강화, 외부 충격 등이 폭락 조건으로 제시된다. 영상은 구체적 매매 권고는 하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
michael bury warning this market crash is about to affect millions of people get ready before it happens the stock market is going to crash in the next three years and wipe out half the market either that or the feds will continue to print so much new cash to avoid a crash that your savings will be worth half their current value today we're going to talk all about the upcoming stock market crash f stock market is going to crash in the next three years and wipe out half the market either that or the feds will continue to print so much new cash to avoid a crash that your savings will be worth half their current value for tens of millions of zero asset americans and those with the means and discipline to save for the future these punishing scenarios amount to six of one half dozen of the other but the grifters who profited wildly from the debt-fueled rise in real estate stock and crypto prices don't care because they're all in on the scam you know the market is a fraud when share prices double or triple despite profits getting crushed by a global pandemic a crash is coming it's just a matter of when and how large the economist's intelligence unit thinks a bubble burst is highly probable john wolfenbarger of the mices institute thinks this crash will be worse than 2008 dropping at least 60 percent michael bury of the big short fame thinks we're in a massive bubble and the looming crash will be the worst in history approximately 50 of wall street strategists think the s p 500 will end the year below current levels bank of america thinks negative 10 percent morgan stanley thinks negative 20 investor jon hussman who predicted the dot-com bubble burst thinks the market will crash 66 percent jeremy grantham thinks we're in a bubble the size of 2008 or 1929.
the european securities and markets authority also thinks we're in a bubble mega criminal warren buffett thinks a crash is coming and has over 140 billion dollars ready to deploy the top 15 non-financial companies including apple alphabet google amazon microsoft and meta facebook also think a crash is coming and have stockpiled more than one trillion dollars to go shopping when it does here are five reasons why we're in this bubble and why it's going to burst number one insane new investors boomers robbed them of their future so instead of even bothering with futile attempts to build real productive contributive businesses in the face of government controlling government-controlling tax-evading multinational monopolies they decided to passively play the markets instead enter commission-free predator apps like robinhood in the past two years millions of young people have jumped onto these platforms and are treating the stock market like the casino it is unlike traditional value investors who pour over thousands of pages of documents in order to make sound decisions about stock purchases young people essentially trade the news or even mere tweets just look at who's run tesla up to a trillion dollars even though it's not worth one twentieth that much but you'll never convince a bit boy or a tesla maniac that meme stonking isn't a risky house of cards that's bound to collapse after all everyone's an expert during a hysterics fueled bull run joe kennedy the infamous father of president jfk managed to dodge the 1929 crash after having an epiphany while getting his shoes shined on wall street saying when even shoeshine boys are giving you stock tips it's time to sell but rents and food prices are going up and when this bubble does pop all these young people won't have jobs or free internet money number two borrow to invest why hasn't the world learned our lesson by now if you let millions of people borrow money to buy the same stock the stock price will go up which allows stockholders to borrow more money so they can buy more stock and create massive market bubbles that eventually burst and destroy millions of lives i'll say what no corporate captured political party will ever tell you it should be illegal to invest on margin especially for crypto thanks to d5 perhaps no market is as hyper leveraged as the 3 trillion crypto market which may have less than 10 percent real wealth behind it but when people need to withdraw to pay real bills or when the us starts heavily regulating the space trillions will get wiped out number three wild valuations the price to earnings p e ratio is considered the benchmark number for comparing one company's stock price to another the ratio is based on the current stock price divided by the trailing 12 month earnings per share if a stock price is 10 per share and the p e ratio is 10 it means that the company is earning one dollar per share if you buy a 10 share with a p e of 20 it'll roughly take you 20 years to break even warren buffett likes to buy stocks with a p e of around 12.
the s p 500's long term median p e ratio is around 15. s p 500's current p e ratio is around 29 nearly double its century-long average despite the pandemic bubble apple's pe is typically around 30 amazon's pe hovers around 60 and tesla's p e ratio is currently over 330. that's one dollars worth of earnings for every 330 invested would you really buy a business with an roi of 0.3 percent would you acquire a company that would take over three centuries to break even number four inflation when governments print trillions of dollars out of thin air and loan it to investors to pump into asset bubbles the price of everything rises when prices rise rapidly people starve freeze go bankrupt or take to the streets demanding change that's how hitler came to power in germany when inflation soars due to price rises due to money printing governments have two choices a raise interest rates and likely trigger panic in a crash that lobs 50 plus percent off the market in the next five years or b print more money out of thin air to keep the bubble inflating but in doing so robbing the poor of 50 plus percent of their purchasing power in the next five years so far corporate controlled governments have chosen option b but are now signaling that they desperately need to raise rates to slow down inflation however there's no way their banker bosses will let them raise rates nearly as much as it needed to save the currency from depreciating but if they keep robbing the poor via inflation there will soon be mobs in the street which also tends to crash markets number five other factors there are a ton of other factors that could lead to a huge market crash a worsening usa china relationship a terrorist attack new covet variants and over responses from increasingly authoritarian governments a major cyber attack social unrest and protests supply chain disruptions extreme weather events and contested elections and capital battles on a scale we haven't seen since 1812.
typically one of these factors will set off a chain reaction that takes down the whole market remember the dot-com bubble shaved 49 off of people's investments and the s p 500 dropped 57 in 2008 and millions lost their jobs in homes the next crash will almost certainly be far worse by many trillions however the average house stock and crypto investor already knows all this and they still don't carquence bye you
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