저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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결론: 트럼프 행정부의 정책 추진력 불확실성 속에서 현 랠리는 유지되겠지만 세부 정책(세제개편 등) 확인 전까지는 신중하며, 신규 자금은 일부만 투입하고 실탄을 남겨두라는 견해. 정책 정치 리스크: 오바마케어 대체 법안 전쟁이 세제개편·인프라 등 성장 정책의 정치 자본을 소모할 우려가 있음. 시장은 여름쯤 세제개편 진전을 기대 중이나 즉각적 효과는 제한적이며, 세부 일정과 입법 순서가 핵심 변수. 중앙은행 전환: 경기 부양이 중앙은행 지원에서 실질 성장 정책으로 넘어가는 이행기이며, 이 이행이 명확하지 않아 주의가 필요. ECB: 금리 동결 예상. 드라기는 경기 개선을 말하며 개방형 양적완화(QE) 재검토를 다음 회의에서 시사할 수 있다고 봄(가능성 언급). 프랑스 선거·브렉시트가 제약 요인. 증시 전망: 미국 증시는 11월 이후 급등했으나 정책 세부사항이 늦어지면 랠리에 압박. 과거 상승 설명은 예측 아님. 고용지표: 실업률 4.7%, 고용 19만명 컨센서스에 대체로 동의. 임금상승률과 참여율도 중요. ADP 29.8만명 강세. 연준 금리: 다음 주(3월 15일) 금리 인상 가능성이 높다고 봄(시장 확률 30%→100%). 연내 최소 3차례 인상 가능성 언급. 자산 배분: 전반적으로 신중, 일부 현금 보유. 미국 기술주는 여전히 부진하나 기회 존재, 신흥국은 많이 올랐지만 일부 가치 있음. 매우 선별적 접근, 정치 리스크 전개를 지켜볼 것.
다듬은 글
an aliance chief economic adviser Muhammad L Arian on this right as well Mohammad good to see you thanks so much for joining us thank you Mar what's your take on this is this a hindrance uh this battle over Obamacare and the replacement plan to the president's progrowth agenda including tax reform which of course is what the markets have been rallying on yeah and you called it a battle battle lines are forming both within the Republican party and more broadly and the question is a political judgment to what extent will president Trump use his political Capital here as opposed to tax reform infrastructure which contributes directly and quickly to economic growth and that's that's what the market is trying to understand and the market is worried that too much political Capital may be dissipated here yeah I mean what about that because we are sort of we have these expectations of a timeline where Obamacare replacement repeal is going to happen first and then you've got a tax reform after do you think the market believes that that will for example uh you know 17 impact or 18 impact because stepen minuchin the treasury secretary said Don't expect a big impact in 2017 and yet we're still up this Market's up 14% from election day well the market is expecting that we see progress on tax reform in the summer because that's what we have been told now the impact may not be immediate but it will bring forward a lot of private sector activity Clarity on tax reform is an important contributor to economic activity so there's expectations for details for a clear timeline and the judgment to be made is the sequencing of policies can you get all this through Congress because remember we are transitioning away from Central Bank support for growth and towards genuine policies that promote long-term economic growth so is that the right move I mean we just heard from the ECB uh they're leaving interest rates unchanged do you expect Mario dragi to say it's over no more stimulus no he won't say that he he'll want to keep his options opens but he will say the E economy is looking better growth is picking up inflation is picking up and he may And I stress May hint that this open-ended QE may be reviewed at the next meeting um it's going to be interesting to see how he does that he has the French elections on his mind and he has the brexit um clause on his mind so he cannot go too far but it'll be really interesting as to how he approaches this issue and and what do you think this means for markets because all the markets are down this morning obviously I mean of course the stock market in the US coming off of a record setting week following president Trump's address of Congress do you think this rally can keep on going in the face of ECB reviewing this open-ended QE so we've come a long way quickly right we we we've surged since November and now the market is saying okay I like the tone I like what I'm hearing in terms of headlines about tax reform infrastructure about deregulation but what about the details and what the market is looking for is greater policy details and the longer it takes for these details to emerge the more pressure on the rally that has been pretty remarkable since November yeah it's been pretty remarkable would you put new money to work here I know you were cautious going into uh election and the inauguration in terms of markets that that's uh you know the market the market has been strong there's still a bit under this Market yeah absolutely I was cautious for a short-term reason and a long-term reason the short-term reason proved to be wrong and the short-term reason is I I was worried about the protectionist rhetoric as it turns out the protectionist rhetoric has been very low and the progrowth rhetoric has been high longer term we are at a very delicate handoff where we've had artificial growth promoted by Central Bank policies and we're looking to a handoff to genuine growth drivers and that handoff as as I noted is not clear as yet so I would be cautious here I would keep some dry powder I think you'll have opportunities to pick up good names at cheaper prices okay so let's talk about the jobs report coming out tomorrow Muhammad what are you expecting it feels like things are getting better you just said growth is getting better economists are looking for the unemployment rate to tick down to 4.7% and 190,000 jobs JS to be added to the economy does that sound about right to you yeah that sounds right I will also look at two other numbers wage growth which needs to go up and the participation rate which will signal how much slack remains in the labor market critically I don't think tomorrow's report will derail a Fed hike next week but if the report is very strong and the ADP numbers addressed it could be if it's very strong then look for the FED to Signal a lot more about what's coming in the rest of the year and I think we get at least and I stress at least three hikes this year yeah well the ADP numbers yesterday were pretty strong at 298,000 uh which of course caused a lot of people to say oh yeah I'm in on the three hikes next year so you think we will get an interest rate increase next week then Mohammad when the FED meets on the 15th I do and it's been remarkable that that in a few days the FED has been able to take the implied Market probability from 30% to 100% did this through a very calibrated sequencing of statements it was held by stronger data and I think we definitely get a rate hike next week all right so we get a rate hike next week what does that mean for markets I mean is that does that jive with expectations or do you think so if if rates go higher will people say uh oh you know now there's more comp competition for stocks let me sell or will they say well this is a vote of confidence for the United States economy so so far they're seeing the latter and that's why the increased probability has been priced in in such an orderly fashion so so far the market is saying you know what this is good news it means that the FED sees what we see which is higher economic growth and higher inflation the question becomes the policy handoff if you're going to take your foot off the accelerator on monetary policy stimulus which you should you want to press harder the accelerator on genuine contributors to growth and that's why politics become so important have you looked all around the world in terms of investment ideas if you were allocating Capital today what would be your most preferred place is it the US Europe Emerging Markets Asia what looks best to you right now Muhammad so I I would be careful overall but I would do a certain amount of rotation for example Tech continues to lag in the US there's opportunities there Emerging Markets yes have come a long way but there're still of value um so I would be incredibly selective at this point waiting to see how the political risk plays out all right we'll be watching as well Muhammad good to speak with you as always thanks so much thank you Maria Muhammad L Arian joining us there and
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